Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current state of various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price changes, production rates, and market conditions. Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Total inventory of five major steel varieties is at the highest level for the same period in four years [5] - Price changes this week include rebar up by 0.93% and cement price index up by 0.22%, while rubber decreased by 0.34% and coking coal by 3.14% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates have changed by -0.60 percentage points, -1.27 percentage points, and +8.1 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remain stable, with glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit at -4,026 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is 74.52% [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper up by 1.77%, and aluminum up by 0.33% [7] - The gross profit for cold-rolled steel has turned from loss to profit, while the losses for other commodities have increased by 1.86% and 1.49% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 69.19%, a decrease of 1.88 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a new high since 2012, currently at 339,000 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.04% [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 17.59% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan/ton, with estimated profit at 4,223 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 1.49% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.08 [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 490 yuan/ton, down by 50 yuan/ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down by 0.09% this week [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has increased by 1.64%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals, up by 3.46% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is 37.40% and 86.64% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant decline in the price of oriented silicon steel, with a year-to-date drop of 23% [3] - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises improved in October 2025, with the BCI index rising by 10.15% to 52.41 [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are facing challenges, with new construction area down 19.80% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [22] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in October 2025 is 52.41, up 10.15% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [19] - The current price of London gold is $4082 per ounce, reflecting a 2.05% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The cumulative year-on-year new construction area in the real estate sector from January to October 2025 is down 19.80% [22] - The price changes for key materials include rebar down 0.94% and cement price index down 0.76% [2] - The cumulative year-on-year completion area for commercial housing from January to October 2025 is down 16.90% [78] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a current rate of 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 1.00%, copper up 1.11%, and aluminum up 1.44% [2] Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1094.03 points, up 3.39% [4] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.56, with the highest historical value being 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is likely to recover, which could lead to an improvement in the PB ratio [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, and industrial sectors, indicating a mixed economic outlook with specific areas of concern such as low PMI indices and fluctuating commodity prices. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is at -2.8 percentage points in August 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is at $4018 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI index for September is at 45.2%, marking a six-month low [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 0.62%, cement price index down by 0.89%, rubber down by 1.35%, coke up by 3.65%, coking coal up by 0.30%, and iron ore down by 1.01% [5] - The average daily crude steel output from key enterprises in late September decreased by 8.88% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass increased by 0.77% and remained unchanged, respectively, while glass gross profit is at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit is at -1082 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year low of 46.51%, down by 27.07 percentage points [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.50%, copper up by 5.02%, and aluminum up by 0.91% [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum continues to reach historical highs [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 21020 yuan/ton, with a calculated profit of 3854 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 5.14% month-on-month [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is at 86830 yuan/ton, up by 5.02% [8] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a 14-month low [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.06 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 140 yuan/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 440 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton [9] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 is at 47.80%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1014.78 points, down by 6.68% [10] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel is at 77.20%, down by 0.90 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51%, with the best-performing sector being industrial metals, up by 5.35% [11] - The PB ratio for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is at 40.18% and 97.52%, respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Group 1 - The European Commission has imposed a 12.1% anti-dumping duty on hot-rolled steel imports from Vietnam, as the Vietnamese steel industry is actively seeking to expand into the European market [1] - The decision exempts products produced by Hoa Phat Group [3] - The EU has also imposed anti-dumping duties on similar imported products from Japan and Egypt [3] Group 2 - The United States has imposed anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled steel imports from Vietnam and other countries, with the duty period set from July 2024 to June 2025 [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - Egypt has escalated anti-dumping measures against Chinese steel and aluminum products, imposing anti-dumping duties of up to 29% on cold-rolled, galvanized, and painted steel products [1] - Since 2021, Egypt has gradually imposed anti-dumping taxes on aluminum products, starting at 16.5% and currently reduced to 10.5%, significantly impacting exporting companies [1] Group 2: Trade Strategies - In the complex international trade environment, third-country transshipment trade has become a crucial strategy for Chinese companies, allowing them to circumvent high tariffs through neutral countries like Malaysia and Turkey [3] - Steel export companies are particularly affected by anti-dumping measures on cold-rolled and galvanized steel, and transshipment through Malaysia or Turkey can mitigate direct impacts [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The future of Egypt's trade protection measures is expected to remain stringent, prompting Chinese steel and aluminum companies to diversify markets, ensure compliance in transshipment operations, and upgrade their industries to enhance competitiveness [5][6] - While third-country transshipment provides a temporary buffer, long-term success will depend on optimizing industry structure and adjusting market strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational strategies of Friend Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, showcasing growth in revenue and net profit, alongside a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and expanding production capabilities in the automotive and home appliance sectors [2][5][6]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - Company Name: Friend Co., Ltd. [2] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached approximately 5.22 billion RMB, a 2.25% increase from the previous year [2]. - Total profit amounted to approximately 215.41 million RMB, reflecting a 33.28% increase year-on-year [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 153.36 million RMB, up 30.53% compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company’s net assets totaled approximately 8.59 billion RMB at the end of the reporting period [2]. Industry and Main Business Analysis - The company operates in the metal processing and distribution sector, primarily serving the mid-to-high-end automotive and home appliance industries [3][4]. - The automotive and home appliance sectors are critical to China's economy, with significant growth in production and sales observed in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The automotive market saw production and sales of 15.62 million and 15.65 million vehicles, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [3]. - The company has established a "multi-to-multi" network collaboration model, enhancing supply chain efficiency by integrating upstream steel and aluminum suppliers with downstream automotive and appliance manufacturers [4][8]. Operational Strategies and Developments - The company has focused on optimizing internal production management and cost control to enhance operational efficiency [5]. - A total sales volume of 1.05 million tons was achieved in the reporting period, marking a 16.50% increase year-on-year [5]. - New processing bases are being established in Jiangsu and Sichuan to improve order response times and service capabilities [6]. - The company has invested in new production lines for aluminum extrusion and laser welding, aimed at enhancing product competitiveness and supporting lightweight automotive materials [6][7]. Competitive Advantages - The company has developed significant industry advantages, including a strong brand reputation and comprehensive service capabilities in the automotive metal processing sector [7][8]. - It maintains strategic partnerships with major steel and aluminum manufacturers, ensuring a reliable supply of materials [9]. - The company’s processing capacity is approximately 2.5 million tons annually, allowing it to meet diverse customer demands effectively [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Market Analysis - Multiple countries and regions have increased tariff frictions and imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, leading to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [4]. - China's steel industry holds an important position globally, with its crude steel output accounting for about 55% of the world's total in 2024, and has long accounted for over 50% [4]. - China's steel exports continue to show a growth trend. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and the billet export volume increased significantly [4]. - The export of high - value - added products in China has increased significantly. From January to July 2025, the export volume of thick plates and large - section steel increased by 10.7% and 38.9% respectively year - on - year [4]. - The structure of China's steel exports has changed. The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased [5]. - China's steel exports to North America and some countries that have imposed additional tariffs have continued to shrink, while exports to emerging economies have maintained growth [5][6]. Strategy - Pay attention to changes in steel export regions and objectively evaluate the resilience of China's steel exports and consumption [7]. Summary by Directory Preface - China's steel exports show strong resilience and adaptability. Facing challenges from anti - dumping investigations in traditional markets, China has accelerated the exploration of emerging markets, and the Belt and Road Initiative has provided strategic support [14]. Part One: Anti - Dumping Investigation on Chinese Steel Exports by Some Countries and Regions - Since 2025, economies such as India, the EU, the US, and Vietnam have launched anti - dumping investigations or made anti - dumping rulings on various high - value - added steel products from China, which may lead to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [15]. Part Two: China's Crude Steel Output Holds an Important Position Globally - China's crude steel output reached a record high in 2020 and decreased in 2021 and 2022. In 2024, it was 1.005 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. China's crude steel output accounts for over 50% of the world's total [18][19]. Part Three: China's Steel Export Volume Continues to Show a Growth Trend - Despite the challenges of global trade protectionism and anti - dumping measures, China's steel export volume has continued to grow. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.4%. The export of high - value - added products has also increased significantly [26][37]. Part Four: Changes in China's Crude Steel Export Structure - The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased significantly, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased, indicating a shift from pursuing quantity growth to structural optimization [41]. Part Five: China's Steel Exports Are Shifting to Emerging Markets - China's steel export destination is shifting from traditional developed markets to emerging markets. Exports to North America have decreased, while exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America have increased [49]. Part Six: Conclusion - Multiple countries and regions have imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, and the global steel trade pattern is facing a new round of adjustment. China's steel industry holds an important position globally, and its steel exports continue to grow. The export structure is changing, with a shift towards emerging markets [83][84].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The aluminum production capacity utilization rate reached a new high of 98.4% in July, the highest level since 2012 [3] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in key metrics, with significant drops in new construction and sales areas [23][76] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July, down 6.16% month-on-month [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel output hit a yearly low in late July [2] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points [42] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area for real estate was -20% for the first half of 2025 [23] Industrial Products Chain - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for China was 47.10% in July, down 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1200.73, down 2.56% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.23%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +6.21% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, supported by government policies [5] - Caution is advised regarding potential volatility in futures prices, particularly in coking coal [5]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs reported a non-GAAP loss of $0.50 per share for Q2 2025, which was better than the consensus estimate of a $0.71 loss, while GAAP revenue reached $4.9 billion, exceeding analyst forecasts of $4.86 billion. Despite improvements in shipments and cost reductions, the company continues to face challenges with ongoing losses and negative gross margins in steel production, indicating uncertainty in achieving sustainable profitability [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a year-over-year decline in revenue of 3.1%, from $5.09 billion in Q2 2024 to $4.9 billion in Q2 2025 [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA fell significantly by 70%, from $323 million in Q2 2024 to $97 million in Q2 2025 [2][6]. - Steel shipments increased by 7.5% year-over-year, totaling 4.3 million net tons in Q2 2025, partly due to the integration of Canadian operations [2][5]. - Liquidity decreased by 27%, from $3.7 billion in Q2 2024 to $2.7 billion in Q2 2025 [2]. Operational Developments - The company achieved a reduction in steel unit costs by $15 per ton compared to the previous quarter, with a target of $50 per ton cost reduction for the full year 2025 [7][10]. - The product mix included hot-rolled steel (40%), coated steel (27%), and cold-rolled steel (15%), with automotive sector sales accounting for 26% of steelmaking revenue [8]. Strategic Focus - Cleveland-Cliffs is focused on the automotive market, aiming to supply high-margin steel and investing in electrical steels for electric vehicles and energy infrastructure [4]. - The company is pursuing operational efficiency through acquisitions and optimizing its asset base while maintaining strong labor relations and environmental commitments [4]. Future Outlook - Management expects further gains in adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2025 and anticipates the elimination of a legacy slab supply contract will alleviate earnings pressure [11]. - Capital expenditure guidance has been reduced to approximately $600 million for FY2025, reflecting the cancellation of non-core projects [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, highlighting the performance of key commodities, financing conditions for small and medium enterprises, and the state of the real estate market in China. Group 1: Liquidity and Financing Environment - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for June 2025 is 49.12, with a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in June 2025 is -3.7 percentage points, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices have reached a new high since April, with a week-on-week increase of 0.93% [4] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces increased by 0.99 percentage points, while the cement and asphalt rates decreased by 3.30 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points, respectively [4] - The cumulative year-on-year completion area of commercial housing from January to June is -14.80% [5] Group 3: Industrial Products Chain - The national half-steel tire operating rate is at a five-year high of 75.99%, with a month-on-month increase of 3.07 percentage points [6] - The June PMI new orders index is at 50.20% [6] Group 4: Price Trends of Specific Commodities - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached the highest level since 2011 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 22.59% month-on-month [7] Group 5: Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.14 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 110 yuan/ton [8] Group 6: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for June 2025 is 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,303.54 points, down 0.77% [9] Group 7: Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.09%, with the commercial vehicle sector performing the best at +5.98% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]