20 February 2026 | 3:15PM EST Equity Research Energy, Utilities & Mining Pulse: Investors Asking: What Are Takeaways from the Road or Recent Management Meetings? While the Natural Resources complex has performed well this year, there has been significant dispersion under the hood. One of the key drivers of relative performance has been corporate governance and management changes. With that in mind, our analysts have spent much of February on the road, at conferences and on earnings calls engaging with manag ...

Wall Street expects flat earnings compared to the year-ago quarter on higher revenues when Venture Global (VG) reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down tariffs imposed by President Trump may lower costs for some U.S. oil producers and drillers, but overall energy flows are expected to remain unchanged for now [1] Cost Implications - The ruling could reduce the costs associated with building LNG plants and other large-scale energy infrastructure that rely on imported components affected by tariffs [1] - Companies like Premium Oilfield Technologies anticipate a decrease in tariff taxes, potentially freeing up cash flow for R&D, employee raises, and returns to investors [1][1] - The decision may help companies better budget and understand drilling costs, as noted by executives in the industry [1] Tariff Dynamics - The Supreme Court's ruling does not eliminate the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, leading to concerns that the administration may implement alternative tariff strategies [1] - Trump has suggested the possibility of imposing a 10% global tariff for 150 days, indicating ongoing uncertainty in tariff policies [1] LNG Trade Outlook - Despite the potential cost reductions, it is unlikely that China will increase its imports of U.S. LNG due to economic factors and strategic considerations [1] - Analysts suggest that China may continue to leverage its LNG market strategically, opting for arbitrage opportunities rather than increasing U.S. LNG purchases [1][1] - The lack of agreed LNG purchases between the U.S. and China further complicates the outlook for U.S.-China energy trade dynamics [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The global LNG industry is expected to enter a period of oversupply, with a consensus that supply will exceed demand in the medium term, leading to downward pressure on prices. However, recent positive signals from the demand side and self-adjustment from the supply side suggest a potential stabilization in prices before a decline [1][3][6]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global LNG market is projected to experience a significant increase in supply, with approximately 160 million tons of LNG capacity expected to come online from 2025 to 2027, primarily from the US and Qatar [1][5]. - The medium-term outlook indicates that LNG spot prices may decline to below $8/MMBtu, with the average spot price in Northeast Asia expected to be $9, $8, and $7 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [1][3]. - The current supply structure is deemed reasonable, and market participants are adjusting their supply release schedules, which may lead to a "stabilization before decline" scenario for LNG prices [1][3][6]. Group 2: China's Natural Gas Demand - China's natural gas demand is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2026, driven primarily by transportation and power generation, despite a potential downward adjustment in wholesale prices [2][21]. - From 2027 onwards, as international LNG supply increases, previously suppressed demand in China may begin to recover, with growth rates potentially revised upward to 5-7% [2][11]. - The reduction in LNG prices to around $8/MMBtu could enhance the competitiveness of natural gas against coal and biomass, potentially improving heating demand in rural areas [12][20]. Group 3: European and Global Demand Trends - The EU's LNG demand is expected to face upward adjustments due to the anticipated exit of Russian gas supplies, with a need for approximately 40 billion cubic meters of non-Russian LNG by 2025 [8][11]. - The carbon market in Europe has seen significant price increases, which may suppress gas demand in high-energy-consuming industries [8][11]. - In addition to Europe, countries like India and Southeast Asian nations are projected to increase their LNG imports significantly, with India's demand expected to rise by over 100% compared to 2025 levels [13][11]. Group 4: Price Support Mechanisms - The linkage of LNG long-term contracts to oil prices may provide a floor for LNG spot prices, with expectations that Brent crude prices will rise, thereby supporting LNG prices [14][19]. - The US natural gas market is also expected to see a stabilization in prices, which could further support LNG pricing dynamics [18][19]. - The cost structure for US LNG exports is anticipated to rise, which may help maintain price levels in the global market [19][20].

分组1 - Evolution Petroleum reported break-even quarterly earnings per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, compared to a loss of $0.03 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -100.00% [1] - The company posted revenues of $20.68 million for the quarter ended December 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.99%, and this is an increase from year-ago revenues of $20.27 million [2] - The stock has gained approximately 16.4% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [3] 分组2 - The earnings outlook for Evolution Petroleum is uncertain, with current consensus EPS estimates for the coming quarter at breakeven on $21.7 million in revenues and breakeven on $85.57 million in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the bottom 7% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Evolution Petroleum was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6]

Summary of LNG Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, highlighting a significant supply wave expected to last seven years, starting in 2025 and peaking around 2030 [4][25]. Key Points Supply Dynamics - 2025 is projected to be the first year of the largest global LNG supply wave, with supply expected to average 431 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), slightly below the previous expectation of 433 mtpa [4][5]. - The U.S. is anticipated to lead the supply growth, with a notable ramp-up at the Plaquemines facility contributing to the overall supply despite some disruptions and delays in other regions [4][29]. - Global LNG supply growth from 2025 to 2030 is expected to increase by 193 mtpa, which is 45% of the 2025 global supply, significantly outpacing Asia's demand growth of 144 mtpa [4][7]. Price Forecasts - A bearish cycle for European natural gas prices (TTF) and LNG (JKM) is anticipated, with forecasts suggesting prices could drop below $5/mmBtu by 2028/29, more than 50% lower than current prices [4][66]. - The JKM-TTF spread has turned negative, indicating that JKM prices have not fully adjusted to the recent TTF price rally [12][20]. Demand Insights - Asia's LNG demand is expected to rise by 14 mtpa in 2026, driven by a 5 mtpa increase in China and a 7 mtpa rise in Southeast Asia [41][43]. - The demand response to low gas prices is estimated to be over 40 mtpa from China alone, indicating a potential shift in consumption patterns [4]. Regional Supply Challenges - Structural supply losses are anticipated from Algeria and Indonesia due to rising domestic energy demands, with Algeria's export forecast lowered by 1 mtpa for future years [4][34]. - Delays in export capacity starts in the U.S., Canada, Congo, and Australia have led to a slower start for global LNG supply in 2026, although recovery is expected by the second half of the year [4][10]. Future Projects - All but one of the supply projects in the forecast through 2029 have reached a Final Investment Decision (FID), indicating strong commitment to future supply growth [4][3]. - Upcoming liquefaction projects are expected to increase global LNG supply by approximately 50% relative to 2024 by 2030 [4][36]. Additional Insights - The U.S. LNG export contracts are projected to remain profitable only through 2027, with significant implications for future export strategies [22][24]. - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the timing of liquefaction projects, as they are critical to balancing supply and demand in the LNG market [4][66]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of the LNG market.

Core Viewpoint - Cheniere Energy has applied for federal approval to expand its Corpus Christi LNG facility, aiming to significantly increase its production capacity to meet growing demand in the LNG market [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion Plans - The stage four expansion will add 24 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to the existing capacity, bringing the total to 49 mtpa if approved [2]. - The expansion includes the construction of four additional LNG processing units, each capable of producing 6 mtpa [2]. - Cheniere anticipates needing 3.3 billion cubic feet of gas daily for the expansion and is seeking federal approval by May 2027 [2]. Group 2: Current Capacity and Competition - The current capacity of the Corpus Christi plant is 18 mtpa, which is expected to increase to 25 mtpa by the end of 2026 due to an ongoing stage three expansion [1]. - Cheniere currently operates at a capacity of 52 mtpa and is developing an additional 8 mtpa, positioning itself to compete with Venture Global for a total production capacity of 100 mtpa [3]. - Venture Global has a current capacity of 40 mtpa and is building an additional 28 mtpa [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Progress - In June 2025, Cheniere announced a positive final investment decision for the expansion of the Corpus Christi LNG facility [4]. - The FERC approved the request to begin the Pre-filing Environmental Review Process for the stage four project and the expansion of the Cheniere Corpus Christi Pipeline in August 2025 [4]. Group 4: Infrastructure Integration - The CCL stage four project will integrate with existing facilities at the CCL Terminal, including shared utilities and LNG loading lines [5].

Core Viewpoint - Venture Global (NYSE:VG) is facing a legal dispute with Shell, which is impacting its stock performance and market perception, yet RBC Capital maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5]. Company Overview - Venture Global is a U.S.-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer with a current market capitalization of approximately $21.9 billion [3]. Stock Performance - The stock price of VG is currently at $8.95, reflecting a slight increase of 0.46% or $0.04 from the previous day [2][5]. - VG's stock has fluctuated between a high of $22.14 and a low of $5.72 over the past year, indicating significant volatility in the market [3]. Trading Activity - The trading volume for VG is reported at 1,723,339 shares, suggesting active investor interest and close monitoring of the company's legal situation [4][5]. Analyst Ratings - RBC Capital has adjusted its price target for VG from $13 to $11, citing ongoing legal issues and market conditions as the reasons for this adjustment [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - Shell is challenging its arbitration defeat against liquefied natural gas producer Venture Global, focusing on potential communications between Venture Global and independent engineer Lummus Consultants [1] Group 1 - The arbitration case involves Shell's claims against Venture Global regarding contractual obligations and performance [1] - The outcome of this challenge could have significant implications for Shell's operations and financial standing in the liquefied natural gas sector [1] - The involvement of Lummus Consultants as an independent engineer raises questions about the integrity of the arbitration process and the communications that may have occurred [1]