Overview - The food and beverage industry is currently facing a dual impact of oversupply and insufficient demand, leading to a restructuring of the overall pricing and competitive landscape [3][6][21] - Despite the pressure on prices and downward revisions of profit growth expectations in some sectors, the intense competition is driving innovation and reform, resulting in new business models and investment opportunities [3][6][21] Baijiu Industry - Since 2025, profound changes have occurred on both the supply and demand sides of the baijiu industry, with a coexistence of consumption upgrades and downgrades [7][22] - Some mid-range baijiu brands are under pressure, while certain local brands continue to grow rapidly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [22][30] - Baijiu companies have proactively adjusted their supply strategies, leading to a significant slowdown in revenue growth to match demand changes [22][23] - The industry is undergoing a transformation in product and pricing strategies, suggesting a cyclical change, with recommendations to focus on companies with balanced product structures and healthy inventories [22][32] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is entering a new phase where channel efficiency is paramount, driven by the rise of new retail formats such as discount stores and membership supermarkets [8][36] - New business models are disrupting traditional channel barriers and providing better value-for-money options, leading to structural growth opportunities [8][36][37] - The focus for investment should be on channel enterprises and related manufacturing companies, as new retail formats continue to gain traction [8][37] - The market for snacks and beverages is expanding rapidly, with the retail value in the lower-tier markets reaching 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 [52][56] New Product Trends - There is still room for innovation in certain niche markets, with segments like leisure konjac products experiencing rapid growth [9][70] - The demand for high-quality products remains strong, with a significant portion of consumers willing to pay more for better quality [42][43] Market Structure - The industry is witnessing a consolidation phase, particularly in sectors like dairy, beer, and yeast, where competition intensity is decreasing and leading brands are gaining long-term competitive advantages [10][36] - Traditional sectors like yellow wine are also stabilizing, with improved profitability and potential for revaluation as market dynamics shift [10][36] Retail Channel Dynamics - The rise of membership supermarkets and discount retail channels is reshaping consumer purchasing behavior, with a notable increase in the number of snack retail outlets [48][56] - Companies like Youyou Foods and Lihigh Foods are effectively leveraging these new channels to drive growth and improve profitability [48][70]

中国银河（601881）发表研报，建议继续关注新品类与新渠道带来的投资机会。预计2025H2传统食品 饮料复苏依然偏慢，新消费方向仍有望实现超额收益，一方面是休闲零食、创新软饮(功能饮料、养生 水、椰子水)新品类快速增长，另一方面是折扣超市、山姆会员店与商超调改等渠道变革带来供应链的 一些烘焙、零食公司受益。此外，与市场观点不同，我们认为传统消费方向也具备一定投资价值，低估 值+高股息+竞争格局稳定的细分行业具备补涨空间，部分传统行业的公司也正在积极求变。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on new products and channels for mass-market products [1][12][26] - The overall effective demand remains insufficient, with consumption structure adjustments driven by "emotional premium" and "new channel transformation" [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new retail channels, such as instant retail, which are reshaping the value chain for brand owners, distributors, and retailers, with efficiency being a key factor [2][31] Group 2 - In the liquor sector, the report notes a significant decline in government consumption, which has dropped from 30-40% to around 5% since the introduction of the "three public consumption ban" in 2012, impacting business and mass consumption indirectly [18][21] - The report outlines the 2025 operational goals for various liquor companies, indicating a rational approach to growth targets amid industry consensus on deceleration [23][24] - The report forecasts that the market size for instant retail in the liquor sector will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth observed in online sales during promotional events [32][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand imbalances, and a lack of consumption scenarios affecting stock performance [40][41] - It highlights that the white liquor index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 12.1% as of June 12, 2025 [40][39] - The report suggests that the social attributes of white liquor are evolving, with younger generations favoring different social consumption patterns, such as casual gatherings and emotional consumption [26][29]

新消费与传统成长选择 20250602 摘要 新消费领域通过内容营销进行品类创新，在日化、个护、保健品等领域 表现突出，当前估值处于一倍到 1.3 倍 PEG 之间，与 2019 年股市爬坡 期类似，风险偏好中等偏高，或将进入阶段性盘整。 传统成长股如东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒估值偏低，PEG 低于 1，利润增长预 计超 30%，二季度旺季动销加速概率大，或有绝对和相对收益，传统消 费估值不高时或是配置重点。 2025 年新消费仍是首选，美妆（若羽臣、景峰医药、增康润本等）和 零食（盐津铺子、卫龙、百龙创源等）是重点；传统成长方面，关注无 糖茶增长的东鹏饮料和改善周期的燕京啤酒。 新消费增长点集中在情绪消费、新技术（AI）和新渠道，上半年表现理 想，业绩兑现度高，估值合理。6 月催化剂包括小米智能眼镜新品发布、 孩子王 AI 玩具推出、小商品城六区市场招商。 家电行业关注旧换新政策落地和 618 促销影响，截至 5 月 31 日，12 个 品类销量同比增长 39%，国补政策效果显著，但部分地区调整补贴进度。 立减促销对格力、小天鹅等龙头有利，关注美的集团、海尔等稳健龙头。 Q&A 当前新消费领域的创新周期与上一轮相比 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨华凯易佰（300592.SZ） [Table_Title] 华凯易佰 2024 年及 2025Q1 点评：盈利能力阶 段承压，存货管控轻装上阵 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年公司营业收入达到 90 亿元，同比增长 38%，归母净利润达到 1.7 亿元，同比下降 49%； 2024Q4 公司营业收入达到 29.1 亿元，同比增长 64%，归母净亏损 1912 万元，同比下降 158%。 2025Q1 公司营业收入达到 22.92 亿元，同比增长 35%，归母净亏损达到 0.15 亿元，同比下 降 118%。 分析师及联系人 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 李锦 罗祎 秦意昂 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490520080019 SAC：S0490524110002 SFC：BUV258 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 华凯易佰（300592.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 华凯易佰 2024 2] 年及 2025Q1 点评：盈利能力阶 段承压 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-19 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《白酒主动降速减压、提高分红率，大 众品关注新渠道/新品类机会》 - 2025.05.12 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 18105.47 | | 52 周最高 | 19832.49 | | 52 周最低 | 14118.56 | 行业相对指数表现 -29% -25% -21% -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 食品饮 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-19 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 18105.47 | | 52 周最高 | 19832.49 | | 52 周最低 | 14118.56 | 行业相对指数表现 -29% -25% -21% -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《白酒主动降速减压、提高分红率，大 众品关注新渠道/新品类机会》 - 2025.05.12 食品饮 ...

2025年《教育强国建设规划纲要(2024—2035年)》提出加快扩大普通高中教育资源供给，探索设立一批 以科学教育为特色的普通高中，办好综合高中，深入实施县域普通高中振兴计划;2025年《政府工作报 告》提出扩大高中阶段教育学位供给，引导规范民办教育发展，推进职普融通、产教融合，增强职业教 育适应性。考虑产业升级与人才需求变化、缓解教育焦虑与社会公平诉求，2022年新修订的《中华人民 共和国职业教育法》删除"职普分流"表述，而后中职教育与普通高中教育进入深化融合发展阶段。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，关注高中教育体制改革，并继续推荐三条主线：①继续推荐 AI+消费主题;②情绪与体验消费结构性景气;③传统零售调改与新渠道;同时关注关注一季报高增长个 股。高中教育需求刚性，仍具备7-8年人口红利期，政府支持扩大高中阶段教育学位供给，引导规范民 办教育发展，推进职普融通，关注受益政策与需求红利的相关标的。 民办高中占比持续提升，中西部普高扩容潜力大 国泰海通主要观点如下： 近年来民办高中的地位重要性不断提高。从学校数量看，2023年我国共有15,381所普通高中，其中民办 普通高中4,567所，民办普 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料|深度报告 发布时间：2025-05-12 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关注内需，建议积极布局（附重点标 的一季度预测）》 - 2025.04.14 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 18019.54 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 19832.49 | | 52 周最低 | | 14118.56 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -28% -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 食品饮料 沪深30 ...

央视网消息（焦点访谈）：近日，第137届中国进出口商品交易会，也就是广交会成功举办。到会境外采购商人数和现场意向出口成交等多项指标刷新历史 纪录。作为"中国第一展"，广交会一向被视作中国外贸的"晴雨表"和"风向标"。在美国滥施关税冲击全球贸易的大背景下，本届广交会各项数据仍然保持稳 定增长，这是怎么做到的？从中又可以看到一张怎样的中国外贸"晴雨表"呢？ 春夏之交的广州，万商云集，人潮熙攘，超28.8万名境外采购商来到广交会，创下历史新高。 今年4月，美国以所谓的"对等关税"为名挑起争端，严重扰乱全球贸易秩序。不少人担心，春季广交会的人流会因此受到影响。而事实上，相比以往，不仅 境外采购商数量创下历史新高，本届广交会现场意向出口成交同比增长3%，达到254.4亿美元，其中60%来自共建"一带一路"国家的采购商。 中国国际经济交流中心美欧研究部副部长、研究员张茉楠："这是一个非常积极的风向标信号，中国作为全球最大的贸易大国和全球最大的制造业大国，在 世界经济动荡之下，中国制造业给世界提供了一个'稳定之锚'。这个平台已经成为汇聚全球合作的舞台，也成为大家应对外部冲击和关税战的避风港。" 在这个全球贸易的大舞台上，好 ...