鹏扬基金吴西燕： 在稳健与创新之间寻找平衡 ◎记者 闫刘梦 近日，鹏扬基金股票投资部基金经理吴西燕在接受上海证券报记者采访时，对消费行业演进、传统产业 价值、市场估值偏好等热点问题进行了分析。 对于受周期影响的传统行业，吴西燕以烟机灶具和车灯为例，称其投资价值源于行业格局与效率提升。 烟机灶具行业虽增长缓慢且受地产周期制约，但行业竞争格局良好，带来了较高的ROE。 "头部公司不断推陈出新、提价销售，各家公司在各自的领域深耕，形成了很好的行业秩序，大家在保 障业务的同时也享有较高的利润率。"她说。 吴西燕还表示，车灯行业受益于新能源车升级，"单车价值量提升"与"工程师红利"共同推动企业份额和 利润率增长。此外，有的公司提前布局新能源车领域并积累订单，随着自身产能利用率提高和行业整体 价值量增大，进一步推高了利润率。 坚守基本面 面对当前市场对高成长赛道的偏好和蓝筹股估值承压的情况，吴西燕坦言，追逐热点的主题投资是一种 对于高成长的偏好，是投资者对市场情绪和远期基本面风险的暴露。她也表示："这是市场生态的一部 分，要以开放审慎的态度对待。" 吴西燕认为，未来投资须在政策导向与产业基本面中寻找平衡点，尤其关注高端制 ...

商贸零售 2025 年 11 月 30 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《六福集团业绩预告高增，美丽田园 战略升级—行业周报》-2025.11.22 《双十一电商大促落幕，美妆、珠宝 表现亮眼—行业周报》-2025.11.16 《10 月社零同比+2.9%，金银珠宝表 现亮眼—行业点评报告》-2025.11.14 品牌建设+科技美学，谱写国货美妆增长答案 ——行业周报 黄泽鹏（分析师） 李昕恬（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125100021 品观 2025 化妆品年会举办，国货品牌共寻穿越周期的增长答案 本周（11 月 25 日），品观 2025 年化妆品年会在广州举办：多名国货美妆品牌 创始人聚齐，围绕"增长的答案"主题分享如何远眺高飞以及实践落地。从品牌 建设看，告别流量红利，头部企业集体转向"质的跃升"与"长期主义"。 ...

香氛经济的持续升温，也与国潮的兴起密不可分。从传统服饰到非遗技艺，从古典美学到东方哲 思，都成为中国消费者追捧的潮流元素。一些国产品牌以国潮文化为内核，通过细分场景创新与数字化 营销破局，逐步构建起差异化竞争优势；而当人们愿意为一缕承载文化记忆的香气买单，当传统技艺通 过创新形态融入现代生活，大家对中国文化的认同，正转化为实实在在的消费选择。 为"好心情"付费的浪潮催生出市场机遇，香氛经济已成消费领域的新蓝海，吸引众多企业入局。企 查查数据显示，近十年国内香水香氛相关企业年注册量整体呈上升趋势，今年前10个月注册量达7.57万 家，同比增长11.99%。市场扩张也带来不少隐忧：部分品牌陷入重营销轻品质的误区，过度炒作情绪 价值、国潮概念，却忽视了香调的质感、配方的稳定性；有的产品原创力不足，导致香调大同小异，出 现同质化倾向；香氛产品的安全标准、过敏原标识等规范也有待进一步完善；等等。 香气无形，却能抚慰人心；消费有价，而情绪满足无价。在物质丰盈的时代，那些能触动心灵、慰 藉情绪的产品，更有希望赢得市场青睐。要让这一缕中国香长长久久地香气袭人，还得花更大力气研发 创新，打磨产品，深入洞察不同群体在多元场景下的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the new consumption industry [3] Core Insights - New consumption is characterized by new demand from emerging consumer groups like Generation Z and a shift from leverage-driven consumption to income-driven consumption among older demographics [5][17] - The supply side benefits from China's robust manufacturing capabilities and the internet's ability to reshape business models and efficiency [5][17] - The report highlights two main investment opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, and defensive cyclical sectors like liquor and travel [5][4] Summary by Sections New Consumption: What is New Consumption? - New consumption has gained traction in recent years, initially a term from the primary market, now widely recognized [17] - It encompasses both new demand from younger consumers and a shift in older consumers' preferences towards more rational spending [17][21] New Demand: Stars Gather to Form Light - Emotional consumption and the rise of national trends are significant drivers, with luxury attributes associated with products [46] - The report identifies key sectors: IP toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [5][4] New Supply: Old Trees Sprout New Buds - The report emphasizes that industries with easier pathways develop first, while more challenging sectors follow as technology and information improve [33] - It discusses the efficiency gains in retail and service sectors through standardization and technological advancements [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two types of opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors (e.g., trendy toys, gold jewelry) and defensive cyclical sectors (e.g., liquor, travel) [5][4] - Specific companies to watch include Pop Mart, Mijia, and various tea brands [5][4] Emotional Consumption and National Trends - Generation Z's emotional consumption is highlighted, with a significant portion willing to pay for emotional value [21][23] - The report notes the increasing acceptance of Chinese brands among younger consumers, contrasting with older generations' preferences [21][22] Gold Jewelry Market - The gold jewelry market is projected to grow significantly, with ancient gold jewelry gaining popularity due to its cultural significance [86][87] - The market size for ancient gold jewelry is expected to reach 4,214 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% [86][87] IP Toy Market - The report outlines the rapid growth of the IP toy market, with a projected market size of 1,741 billion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% [69][70] - The emotional value associated with IP toys is a key driver of consumer interest and market expansion [78][79]

游戏式交互又有新玩法。 目前在抖音已拥有109.5万粉丝、在快手已拥有25.1万粉丝的户外博主"冯梓橙"就发布了相关视频。偷甘蔗时，她身边不停有巡逻NPC追逐其他顾客，自己 也被NPC团团围住，交互颇具戏剧化效果。该视频仅在抖音的点赞量就已超过52万。 在真实世界，NPC成为玩家跨越虚拟与现实鸿沟的基础，以生动演绎为玩家带来游戏代入感。短视频平台则将一个个互动瞬间提取、放大、传播，让NPC 成为带来声量和流量的热点，如西安大唐不夜城的"房谋杜断"、长春市动植物公园的"雪饼猴"、开封万岁山武侠城的"王婆"、天津欢乐谷的"公公"等。 这与当下情绪消费，即不单纯基于实用属性，而以满足消费者情绪需求为导向的消费发展密切相关。 真人版"偷甘蔗"近日成为热门话题。四川眉山某甘蔗地老板受网络创意启发，将自家45亩甘蔗地改成模拟偷甘蔗的互动游戏场地，设有NPC巡逻抓捕，顾 客则按每根甘蔗9.9元支付费用。目前相关话题在抖音、快手的累计播放量超过了4.9亿。 偷甘蔗游戏的魅力显然不在甘蔗本身，而在NPC带来的刺激感。NPC一词源于游戏，是"non-player character"的缩写，即不由玩家操控的角色。NPC将游戏 背 ...

Core Insights - Experience-based consumption is becoming a significant trend among young consumers in Beijing, characterized by immersive, participatory, and emotionally resonant experiences [1][5][11] - Emotional consumption, defined as spending driven by emotional needs and psychological comfort, is increasingly accepted and recognized, particularly among younger demographics [2][4][11] Consumption Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer demand from material utility to spiritual satisfaction, with consumers focusing more on the emotional experiences gained during consumption [4][11] - Emotional consumption encompasses a wide range of products and experiences, including seemingly "useless" items that provide emotional comfort [2][4] Experience-based Consumption - Experience-based consumption is a prominent mode of emotional consumption, where consumers are willing to invest more time and money [5][11] - Activities such as attending live performances, participating in DIY workshops, and collecting unique items are examples of how young consumers engage in experience-based consumption [6][8] Social and Emotional Dynamics - Emotional consumption serves as a means for young people to achieve self-pleasure, capture small moments of happiness, and maintain social connections [8][11] - The rise of social media platforms has amplified the sharing of emotional experiences, creating a new form of social currency among young consumers [8][9] Market Impact - The growing trend of emotional consumption is reshaping the commercial landscape, prompting businesses to focus on the emotional and cultural value of their offerings [11][14] - The integration of emotional value into consumer experiences is driving innovation in service delivery and creating new employment opportunities [14][15] Future Outlook - As the Z generation becomes the main consumer force, spending on emotional experiences is expected to continue growing, reflecting a broader societal shift towards valuing emotional fulfillment [11][12] - The expansion of experience-based consumption is likely to enhance the vibrancy of urban commercial spaces, transforming them into venues that cater to emotional needs [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate, aiming to enhance domestic demand as a primary driver of economic growth, with specific measures outlined to boost consumption [2][7]. Group 1: Economic Development and Consumption - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposes a shift towards an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption, highlighting the importance of increasing the resident consumption rate [2][7]. - The current resident consumption rate in China is projected to reach 39.9% by 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012, indicating a growing trend in consumer spending [6]. - Over the past decade, resident consumption expenditure has more than doubled, from 26.7 trillion yuan in 2015 to an expected 53.9 trillion yuan in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Strategies for Increasing Consumption - To achieve the goal of a higher consumption rate, the plan emphasizes optimizing the consumption environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and reducing restrictions [8][10]. - Service consumption is identified as a key area for growth, with predictions that by 2030, service consumption will account for over 50% of total consumption expenditure [9]. - The government aims to enhance consumer experiences by integrating technology and creating new consumption scenarios, such as immersive and interactive environments [9]. Group 3: Policy Measures and Social Impact - The plan stresses the connection between improving people's livelihoods and boosting consumption, indicating that enhancing social welfare is essential for stimulating consumer spending [11]. - Recent policies, such as subsidies for replacing old products, have already benefited over 300 million consumers, demonstrating the effectiveness of targeted consumption incentives [12]. - The government is committed to increasing residents' income and improving social security systems to further support consumption growth [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption in driving economic growth [4][8]. Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a clear direction for economic and social development, focusing on enhancing the role of domestic demand and consumption [3][4]. - The plan sets a target for a noticeable increase in the resident consumption rate, which is expected to strengthen the internal driving force of economic growth [4][8]. Group 2: Current Consumption Landscape - China's resident consumption rate is projected to reach 39.9% by 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012 [7]. - Over the past decade, resident consumption expenditure has consistently accounted for around 70% of final consumption expenditure, with a significant increase from 26.74 trillion yuan in 2015 to 53.86 trillion yuan in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Strategies for Increasing Consumption - To achieve the goal of increasing the resident consumption rate, the focus will be on optimizing the consumption environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and reducing restrictions [9][11]. - The service consumption sector is identified as a key area for growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of service consumption expected to reach over 50% by 2030 [10]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Consumer Impact - The government is expected to enhance policies that promote consumer spending, such as subsidies for replacing old products, which have already benefited over 300 million consumers [13]. - There is a strong emphasis on aligning policies that support both consumer spending and improving living standards, with a focus on increasing residents' income and employment opportunities [14].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate, aiming to enhance domestic demand and drive economic growth through consumption [7][8][11]. Group 1: Economic Development and Consumption - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines new goals and measures for economic and social development, focusing on increasing the resident consumption rate as a key driver of economic growth [7][8]. - The current resident consumption rate in China is projected to reach 39.9% by 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012, indicating a growing trend in consumer spending [10]. - Over the past decade, total resident consumption expenditure has more than doubled, from 26.74 trillion yuan in 2015 to 53.86 trillion yuan in 2024 [10]. Group 2: Strategies for Increasing Consumption - To achieve the goal of a higher consumption rate, the plan suggests optimizing the consumption environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and reducing restrictions [12][14]. - Service consumption is identified as a critical area for growth, with predictions that the share of service consumption in total consumption will exceed 50% by 2030 [13]. - The government aims to enhance consumer confidence and spending through policies that support the replacement of old goods with new ones, as evidenced by over 3 billion people benefiting from such initiatives [16][17]. Group 3: Social Impact and Policy Measures - The plan highlights the importance of linking consumer spending with improving people's livelihoods, suggesting that enhancing living standards is essential for stimulating consumption [15][17]. - Policies aimed at increasing disposable income and employment are crucial for boosting consumer spending, with a focus on improving social security and public services [17]. - The government is committed to using fiscal measures to support consumption, including tax adjustments and social security enhancements, to create a more favorable environment for consumer spending [17].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate, aiming to enhance domestic demand and drive economic growth through consumption [4][8]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines new goals and measures for economic and social development, focusing on enhancing the role of domestic demand and consumption in economic growth [3][4]. - The plan indicates a shift towards a consumption-driven economic model, with a clear target for improving the resident consumption rate [4][8]. Group 2: Current Consumption Landscape - China's resident consumption rate is currently at 39.9% in 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012, indicating a growing trend in consumer spending [7]. - Over the past decade, resident consumption expenditure has more than doubled, from 26.7 trillion yuan in 2015 to 53.9 trillion yuan in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Future Consumption Potential - There is significant potential for increasing the resident consumption rate, with estimates suggesting that a 1 percentage point increase could represent a market space worth trillions [8]. - The middle-income group in China is projected to grow from over 400 million to 800 million in the next decade, further supporting the potential for increased consumption [8]. Group 4: Strategies for Consumption Growth - Key strategies to boost consumption include optimizing the environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and reducing restrictions, particularly in service consumption [9][10]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption, which currently lags behind other countries, with projections indicating that service consumption could exceed 50% of total consumption by 2030 [10]. Group 5: Policy Implications for Consumer Welfare - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the integration of consumer welfare and consumption promotion, highlighting the importance of improving living standards to stimulate consumption [11][12]. - Recent policies, such as subsidies for replacing old products, have already benefited over 300 million consumers, indicating a strong government push to enhance consumer spending [12][13].