业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 2026 年 03 月 01 日 节后猪价如期下跌，看好产能去化加速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） 本期投资提示： 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 告 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上升 4.0%，沪深 300 上涨 1.1%。个股涨幅前五名：亚盛集团（17.5%）、绿康 生化（13.2%）、冠农股份（12.8%）、新赛股份（12.8%）、众兴菌业（12.3%），跌幅前五名：中水渔业 （-4.3%）、国联水产（-3.8%）、中宠股份（-1.8%）、播恩集团（-1.7%）、京 ...

Group 1 - Eight pet food companies, including Qingdao Bellman Food Co., Ltd. and Qingdao Huafu Xing Food Co., Ltd., have successfully obtained official feed export registration qualifications for Brazil, marking them as the first batch of companies in the country to gain market access to Brazil [1] - The new regulations for feed export registration in Brazil will be implemented by the end of 2025, requiring companies to complete official registration to gain entry [1] - Qingdao Customs has actively supported these companies by providing guidance on regulatory requirements and assisting in the preparation of necessary documentation, which has facilitated the registration process [1] Group 2 - In recent years, countries such as South Korea, Turkey, and Brazil have introduced new registration regulations for pet food companies, prompting Qingdao Customs to offer comprehensive technical guidance to help more quality pet food enterprises obtain international access [2] - Currently, there are 62 pet food export companies in Qingdao, demonstrating a significant clustering effect in the industry [2] - Qingdao Customs plans to continue enhancing reforms focused on "streamlining administration and delegating power," addressing the urgent needs of companies seeking to expand into international markets [2]

青岛海关动植检处动检一科副科长郑新颖表示，下一步，海关将持续深化"放管服"改革，聚焦企业开拓 国际市场的急难愁盼问题，精准应对各类技术性贸易措施，以高效监管、优质服务为企业纾困赋能，为 外贸经济高质量发展注入海关动能。 2025年年底，巴西出台饲料出口注册新法规，要求输巴西饲料企业必须完成官方注册方可准入。青岛海 关主动靠前服务，积极对接协调各相关部门，为企业出具符合良好操作规范声明，破解了注册关键堵 点。 "针对巴西葡萄牙语法规晦涩难懂问题，我们组织业务骨干翻译法规条文，专门组织法规培训，为企业 清晰解读注册核心要求，并指导企业完善相关外文填报材料。"黄岛海关企业管理处资质管理科一级主 办崔海英介绍。 在青岛海关全程帮扶支持下，青岛市首批推荐的8家企业全部成功获批注册。"海关帮我们攻克了注册难 关，为我们打开了更广阔的国际销路，更坚定了我们开拓国际市场的信心！"青岛华福兴食品有限公司 副总经理赵合表示。 近年来，韩国、土耳其、巴西等国家密集出台宠物食品企业注册新规。为了让更多优质宠物食品企业获 得国际"通行证"，青岛海关主动作为，在国外法律法规培训、生产工艺控制、自检自控体系建设、追溯 体系建立等环节提供全 ...

Group 1: Agriculture Industry Insights - The domestic pet consumption market is evolving from basic needs to emotional narratives, driving upgrades in pet food and medical services, indicating a new growth phase for the industry [6] - The USDA's February report predicts a stable beef price outlook for 2026, with increased global soybean ending stocks due to South American production [9][11] - The domestic pet medical market is expected to expand significantly, driven by pet aging and the need for better healthcare services, with a low current chain rate indicating room for consolidation [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Services Industry Strategy - The Spring Festival holiday data shows a 9.6% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow, indicating strong demand for travel and services [14] - Hotel industry performance improved significantly during the holiday, with a 30.7% increase in REVPAR, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [14] - The domestic retail and catering sectors saw an 8.6% increase in average daily sales during the holiday, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [14] Group 3: Automotive Industry Analysis - The report highlights Sensata Technologies as a leading global supplier in automotive exterior parts, benefiting from a diversified product range and a strong cash flow for R&D [16] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing electric vehicle market, with significant revenue expected from battery box sales in Europe [17] - Sensata is expanding into new sectors such as robotics and liquid cooling, indicating a strategic diversification of its product offerings [18] Group 4: Financial Engineering and Investment Value - The report emphasizes the potential of the non-ferrous metals sector, with macroeconomic conditions favoring price recovery and demand growth driven by emerging industries [19][20] - The Southern China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, with strong liquidity and a comprehensive product line from a leading fund manager [22] - The index's performance is expected to outperform the broader market, supported by strong earnings growth from major companies in the sector [21]

食品：情感叙事重构人货场，国牌升级与新渠道协同发力，强者愈强 在情感化、拟人化驱动的新消费叙事下，信任建立与专业背书是品牌赢得消费者心智、保持品牌势能的 关键落脚点。同时电商渠道已经进入存量竞争、价值营销时代，品牌商全域运营能力将成为决胜关键。 因此我们认为无限货架虽给国内市场终局带来未知数，但市场终将属于具备供应链自控能力、持续投入 研发并善于传递品牌价值的长期主义者。国内宠食行业或在后半场加速走向"良币驱逐劣币"阶段，优质 品牌商有望穿越周期成为胜者。 医疗：猫狗老龄化激发消费潜力，连锁化有望铸就龙头 1）医院端：国内宠物医疗市场尚年轻，覆盖率、单店流水明显低于海外成熟市场水平。未来在科学养 宠理念和宠物老龄化驱动下，行业存在较大扩容增利空间。同时医院端目前连锁化率低，格局分散，未 来头部连锁宠物医院集团基于供应链、人才和技术等优势，有望持续整合市场份额。（2）药品端：未 来宠物医疗发展有望同步带动上游药品市场扩容。同时国内猫三联、驱虫药等核心大单品国产覆盖率极 低，未来替代空间大。本土头部动保公司产品矩阵目前正快速完善，未来有望持续挑战进口份额。 用品：关注细分赛道机遇和品牌化转型 智通财经APP获悉， ...

转自：成都日报锦观 聚力产业链 区（市）县如何"拼" 全市"新春第一会"彰显了推动重点产业链"强链突破、聚链成群"的坚定决心，为各区（市）县以重点产 业链高质量发展支撑"十五五"开好局、起好步指明了方向。如何贯彻落实会议精神，推动重点产业链高 质量发展？来看各区（市）县怎么干—— 不少区（市）县表示，要巩固提升传统优势产业、加速突破新兴赛道，培植更具带动力的特色产业集 群。 2026年，新津区将拓展预制食品、功能食品、宠物食品等细分赛道，促进正大肉制品西南总部基地、新 希望健康食品产业园等重大项目加快建设，打造全省健康食品科技创新中心。 梯次培育 聚链强链 统筹推进传统产业改造升级、新兴产业培育壮大、未来产业布局建设，各区（市）县有何打算？ 成都高新区将加快推进集成电路重大项目建设，补齐产业链上下游存在的短板弱项；四川天府新区将锚 定战略性新兴产业和未来产业，加力加劲培育链主企业、夯实要素保障、做强项目支撑，以更大担当、 更实举措推动产业提质升级；成都东部新区将做强燃气轮机、氢能内燃机、无人机等装备制造产业的关 键环节，抢占可持续航空燃料产业新赛道。 温江区将围绕产业链补短板等方向开展项目谋划，全力推动西部放 ...

宠物食品：出口代工换挡，品牌出海向新 20260223 摘要 全球宠物食品行业长期稳定增长，2024 年市场规模接近 1995 亿美元， 2010-2024 年均复合增速达 8.1%。北美市场成熟集中，亚太市场潜力 巨大，行业向高端化、功能化、细分化演进。 中国宠物食品出口量长期扩张，2017 年 53 亿人民币增至 2024 年约 105 亿人民币，年均复合增速 80.4%。主要出口品类为零食，主粮出口 提升。对美国出口依赖度下降，对东南亚和欧洲出口份额上升。 东南亚凭借人口红利和消费潜力，成为中国宠物食品企业自主品牌出海 及产能全球化布局的重要市场。对东南亚出口额显著上升，成为对冲北 美市场份额下降的重要新兴市场。 宠物粮食消费高端化趋势明显，均价上涨。功能性宠物食品市场规模预 计从 2025 年的 30.8 亿美元增长到 2035 年的 70 亿美元，科学养宠理 念推动功能性产品需求。 美国宠物食品进口量增加，但中国占比下降，东南亚占比上升，主要受 关税政策影响。中国企业需应对关税政策挑战，抓住东南亚人口红利和 消费升级机会。 Q&A 2025 年宠物食品板块的市场表现如何？对 2026 年的展望是什么 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月24日 悦己消费产业链研究专题 优于大市 从刚需渗透到情感叙事，宠物消费下半场如何展开 情感叙事推动消费理念进阶，国内宠物消费升级进行时。目前国内年轻高知 养宠群体规模快速扩大，养宠理念正逐步从满足基础生存的"养活"进阶为 追求健康与情感共鸣的"养好"，未来其一方面将推动宠物食品等实物消费 升级，另一方面也将加速宠物医疗等服务消费潜力释放，进而驱动国内宠物 产业步入新发展阶段。 食品：情感叙事重构人货场，国牌升级与新渠道协同发力，强者愈强。在情 感化、拟人化驱动的新消费叙事下，信任建立与专业背书是品牌赢得消费者 心智、保持品牌势能的关键落脚点。同时电商渠道已经进入存量竞争、价值 营销时代，品牌商全域运营能力将成为决胜关键。因此我们认为无限货架虽 给国内市场终局带来未知数，但市场终将属于具备供应链自控能力、持续投 入研发并善于传递品牌价值的长期主义者。国内宠食行业或在后半场加速走 向"良币驱逐劣币"阶段，优质品牌商有望穿越周期成为胜者。 医疗：猫狗老龄化激发消费潜力，连锁化有望铸就龙头。1）医院端：国内 宠物医疗市场尚年轻，覆盖率、单店流水明显低于海外成熟市场水平。未来 在科学 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, net sales were $285.2 million, an increase of 8.6% year-over-year, primarily driven by volume growth of 9.7% [17][32] - For the full year 2025, net sales reached $1.102 billion, up 13% year-over-year, aligning with guidance [18][33] - Adjusted gross margin for Q4 was 48.4%, compared to 48.1% in the prior year, while full year adjusted gross margin was 46.7%, up 20 basis points year-over-year [18][34] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $61.2 million, a 16% increase year-over-year, and for the full year, it was $195.7 million, up 21% [18][36] - Net income for Q4 was $33.8 million, compared to $18.1 million in the prior year, and for the full year, it was $139.1 million, up from $46.9 million [35][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant increase in e-commerce, which grew nearly 40% last year and now represents 14% of total business [9][15] - The company expanded its distribution network, ending the year with products in 30,235 stores, with 24% having multiple fridges [19][20] - The company achieved a household penetration of 15.2 million households, up 10% year-over-year, with a total buy rate of approximately $115, up 4% [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total addressable market for Freshpet has grown to 36 million households, reflecting a continued interest in high-quality pet food [10] - The company increased its market share in the US dog food segment to 4.0% [19] - The company reported broad-based consumption growth across channels, with Nielsen-measured dollars showing 9.4% growth in total US pet retail [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building an omni-channel presence, leveraging its brand equity and manufacturing capabilities to meet consumer demands across various channels [11][52] - The company plans to rebalance its media mix to be more diversified and digital-forward, targeting Millennials and Gen Z consumers [13] - The company is investing in new manufacturing technologies to enhance product quality and operational efficiency, aiming for a competitive advantage [11][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in 2025 but emphasized the lessons learned that strengthened the company for future growth [6][7] - The company expects net sales growth of 7% to 10% for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $205 million and $215 million [24][40] - Management expressed optimism about the potential for growth despite macroeconomic headwinds, citing early signs of improvement in household penetration and buying rates [39][63] Other Important Information - The company welcomed new leadership, including a new CFO and SVP of Supply Chain, to support its growth strategy [27] - The company received $95.5 million from the sale of Ollie, a DTC dog food brand, which will enhance its financial position [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the implied uptick in EBITDA margins for 2027? - Management indicated multiple pathways to achieving 20%+ EBITDA margins, including improvements in gross margin and operational efficiencies [44][46] Question: What insights were gained from the investment in Ollie? - The investment provided valuable insights into the DTC market, leading to a focus on building an omni-channel business [50][51] Question: What are the key drivers for consumption growth in 2026? - Management ranked effective advertising, distribution growth, and affordability initiatives as primary drivers for consumption growth [58][61] Question: How is the Fridge Island expansion progressing? - The company is in the test phase with Fridge Islands, which provide increased capacity and assortment, enhancing brand visibility [66][68] Question: What are the expectations for volume growth versus sales growth in 2026? - Management anticipates that volume growth will exceed sales growth due to affordability initiatives and improved entry-level price points [71][73]

Group 1 - General Mills has lowered its sales and profit expectations for fiscal year 2026, adjusting the organic sales growth target from a previous range of "down 1% to up 1%" to "down 1.5% to 2%" due to persistently weak consumer sentiment [1] - The company expects a more significant decline in profit, with adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share projected to decrease by 16% to 20%, compared to the earlier forecast of a 10% to 15% decline, indicating a notable deterioration in profitability outlook within a few months [1] - As one of the largest food companies globally, General Mills owns well-known brands such as Häagen-Dazs, Wanchai Ferry, and Betty Crocker, with products spanning various categories including breakfast cereals, frozen foods, baking goods, snacks, and pet foods, reflecting the overall consumer environment [1] Group 2 - The core issue behind the lowered expectations is weak demand, as consumers are becoming more cautious with their food spending, leading to a decline in purchasing willingness that directly impacts product sales [1] - The North American packaged food industry is experiencing a demand cooling cycle, with rising consumer sensitivity to prices and increased competition from private labels and discount channels against traditional brand manufacturers [2]