针对毛利率、费用率等问询，回复指出毛利率预测结合了品牌议价能力、行业竞争格局以及产品结构变 化（高毛利宠物食品占比升至49%）等因素，未来综合毛利率"先降后升"具有合理性。期间费用测算以 历史比例为基准，敏感性分析显示销售费用波动对评估结果影响更为显著。此外，折现率设定符合行业 惯例，税费预测也考虑了高新技术企业资质的可持续性。 南方财经12月1日电，天元宠物(301335.SZ)近期因发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金申请，收到深圳证 券交易所审核问询函，其中对标的资产淘通科技的收益法评估提出问询。评估机构坤元资产在回复中表 示，因评估基准日后出现重大变化，原评估值7.77亿元需进行调整，新评估值为7.23亿元，下调约5,400 万元。 评估值下调主要源于淘通科技与重要合作方"公司B"的经销合同于2025年8月到期后未续签，直接影响 未来收入预测。尽管期后新签品牌如迈大食品、中宏生物等部分抵消了相关损失，2025年营收预测仍下 调3.98%，2026年下调13.39%，此后影响逐年收窄。评估机构强调，新报告已基于期后实际经营数据修 正预测，如宠物食品品牌A、B等收入超预期，支撑了评估结果的谨慎性。 ...

消费中观策略&投资建议 临近年末收官可选消费板块总体表现平淡，基本面亮点在于部分包括离岛免税在内的高端消费的复苏有望逐步引导整 体消费企稳，近期的重点事件是 11 月 26 日六部门发布《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》， 提供中长期消费成长方向。总体要求是到 2027 年消费品供给结构明显优化，形成 3 个万亿消费领域（老年用品，智 能网联汽车，消费电子）和 10 个千亿级消费热点（婴童用品，智能穿戴产品，化妆品，健身器材，户外用品，宠物食 品用品，民用无人机，潮玩，珠宝首饰与国潮服饰），打造一批富有文化内涵，享誉全球的高品质消费品。 到 2030 年 供给与消费良性互动、相互促进的高质量发展格局基本行程，消费对经济增长的贡献度稳步提升。 实施方案聚焦商 品消费展开，几大明显方向提供后续消费挖掘方向，（一）功能价值 AI+消费： 加速新技术新模式创新应用，其中提 到强化人工智能融合赋能，推动人工只能在消费品全行业全领域应用，推广生成式人工智能、3D 数字化设计等新工 具。推动 3D 打印设备进入校园；推动健康产品创新发展；（二）情绪价值赛道受到重视：积极发展宠物周边，潮服潮 玩等兴趣消费产 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 30 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生猪能繁去化加速，我国暂停进口 日本水产利多国内水产板块—行业周 报》-2025.11.23 《需求渐入旺季肉鸡价格有支撑，蛋 价下行蛋鸡淘汰或加速—行业点评报 告》-2025.11.17 《双十一宠物龙头表现亮眼，生猪超 卖及寒潮降温对猪价形成支撑—行业 周报》-2025.11.16 10 年末猪价存在供需双重支撑，牛周期景气持续性或 超预期 ——行业周报 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 年末猪价存在供需双重支撑，猪价中枢或逐步上移。据涌益咨询，截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，全国生猪均价 11.20 元/公斤，周环比-0.42 元/公斤，同比-5.27 元/ 公斤，涌益样本生猪屠宰量略高于 2023 年同期。截至 2025 年 11 月 27 日，涌 益样本生猪出栏均重 129.22 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Consumer Trends - The CPI in October showed a slight improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential recovery trend that may continue into the first half of next year [6][10] - The retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.93% year-on-year, with significant improvements in essential consumption categories such as food and beverages [10] - The restaurant sector saw a monthly revenue of 5,199 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [10] Group 2: Frozen and Food Supply Industry - The frozen food and catering industry is witnessing a shift from price wars to product innovation and channel development, with companies focusing on quality and service rather than just price competition [11] - Major players like Anjiyuan and Qianwei Central Kitchen are transitioning their strategies to emphasize product quality and operational efficiency, leading to improved profitability [11][15] - The industry is entering a "hard strength reshuffle period," where companies are expected to enhance their product offerings and service capabilities to maintain competitiveness [11] Group 3: Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with a clear differentiation in growth among brands and channels, driven by strategic adjustments and product innovations [33][34] - The emergence of the konjac category as a significant growth driver, with market potential expected to reach 300 billion yuan by 2025, indicates a strong consumer demand for healthy snacks [34][40] - Companies like Yummy Foods and Salted Fish are leveraging their core products and channel strategies to achieve substantial growth, with a focus on high-margin products and efficient cost management [34][42] Group 4: Specific Company Strategies - Anjiyuan is focusing on high-margin products and channel expansion, with significant growth in its core offerings like volcanic stone grilled sausages and high-end dumplings [12][13] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is seeing improvements in its direct sales and distribution channels, with a focus on enhancing profitability through strategic adjustments in customer structure and resource allocation [15][18] - Salted Fish is capitalizing on the konjac trend and optimizing its product mix to improve profitability, with a strong emphasis on high-margin products and efficient channel management [40][41]

农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 行 业 牧原股份赴港上市获证监会备案 2025 年 11 月 28 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 资料来源：iFinD ，东莞证券研究 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业略跑赢沪深300指数。2025年11月14日—2025年11月27日， SW农林牧渔行业下跌3.79%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约0.18个百分点；细分 板块中，仅渔业录得正收益，上涨7.89%；动物保健、种植业、养殖业、 饲料和农产品加工均录得负收益，分别下跌0.85%、3.31%、3.34%、4.76% 和7.96%。估值方面，截至2025年11月27日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB （整体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.80倍 ...

Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has outperformed the benchmark index since the beginning of 2025, with an absolute return of +24.66%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 10.47 percentage points [10][17][18] - The sector's index has increased by 18.4% over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [14] Swine Breeding - The breeding capacity of sows is gradually declining, with a total of 39.9 million sows recorded by the end of October 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04% [27][24] - The average price of live pigs in October 2025 was 11.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 11.46% and a year-on-year drop of 34.77% [29] - The swine breeding industry is currently facing losses, with theoretical profits for self-bred pigs averaging -209.67 yuan/head in October 2025, marking a significant decline from previous months [36][41] - The market share of the top eight listed pig companies has increased from 4.6% in 2017 to 21.2% by the third quarter of 2025, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation [37][41] Animal Health - The animal health market in China has shown steady growth, with sales increasing from 47.23 billion yuan in 2016 to 69.65 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% [45][46] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of demand are driving the growth of the animal health industry, particularly with the anticipated market expansion following the launch of African swine fever vaccines [51][52] - The market for companion animal health products is also growing, with the pet medical market expected to reach approximately 84 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased spending on veterinary services [56] Seed Industry - The seed industry is experiencing a transformation due to new regulations and policies, with significant investment opportunities arising from the commercialization of biotechnology [4][19] - The market for genetically modified corn is projected to expand, with companies in the sector expected to benefit from increased industry concentration and profitability [18][19] Pet Food - China's pet food market is projected to continue growing, benefiting from demographic changes and rising living standards, with significant potential for domestic brands to capture market share [5][59] - The market for pet food exports is expected to maintain year-on-year growth in 2025, reflecting the increasing demand for high-quality pet products [5][59] - The pet food industry remains fragmented, with ongoing trends towards domestic substitution and increased online sales [5][59]

Group 1: Policy Environment and Consumer Recovery - The national policy has been continuously enhancing support for service consumption, leading to a steady recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on sectors such as elderly care, tourism, and household services [13][15][17] - In October 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the catering sector boosted by the "Double Festival" effect, showing a 3.8% increase [17][22] - The consumer price index (CPI) turned positive at +0.2%, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer sentiment and a stable improvement in the overall consumption price system [22][24] Group 2: New Consumption Sectors Analysis - The pet food industry is characterized by high repurchase rates and a growing young pet owner demographic, with the market expected to reach approximately 175.5 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.5% [30][31] - The new-style tea beverage market is projected to reach about 354.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.4%, driven by demand upgrades and brand differentiation [34][36] - The "Guzi Economy," which includes merchandise derived from IP such as anime and games, is rapidly expanding, connecting cultural and physical goods consumption among young consumers [40][41] Group 3: Key Companies in New Consumption - Taihu Snow, a leading brand in silk bedding, has established a strong market position through multi-channel strategies and brand recognition, transitioning towards a "new national silk lifestyle brand" [43][44] - Bixinglong, a creative packaging leader, has built significant barriers through a comprehensive service model and strong client relationships with high-end brands, enhancing its market presence [45][46] - Lusi Co., a prominent player in the pet food sector, is leveraging its dual-brand strategy and expanding its domestic market share while maintaining strong growth through its OEM/ODM model [47][48] - Yizhi Konjac, a leader in konjac processing, is capitalizing on its supply chain advantages and product premiumization, with a focus on expanding into functional applications and maintaining strong client relationships [50][51] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear brand positioning and category barriers, such as Taihu Snow in the silk bedding sector, which has maintained a leading position for years [54][55] - Companies that align with domestic trends and excel in capacity and channel development, like Lusi Co. in the pet food market, are also highlighted as strong investment opportunities [55] - Firms with supply chain advantages or functional raw material barriers, such as Yizhi Konjac, are recommended for their long-term growth potential in the context of domestic market upgrades [55]

Group 1: Key Insights on Light Industry and Textile Apparel - The潮玩 (trendy toys) industry has a promising outlook, with a projected CAGR of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024, expecting to reach 213.3 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the Z generation's pursuit of personalization and cultural value [2] - The pet industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, supported by factors such as family size reduction and the aging population, with the pet food sector projected to reach 158.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The metal packaging sector is experiencing revenue and profit improvements, with a shift towards a "value war" and increased overseas business development, enhancing long-term profitability [2] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a gradual recovery in orders as tariff risks diminish, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of +1.44%, -0.75%, and -1.03% respectively [3] - The domestic clothing market is showing weak performance, but policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to boost the sports apparel market, projected to reach 408.9 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Investment strategies highlight the ongoing consumer focus on emotional value, benefiting industries like trendy toys and pets, while the textile sector is poised for recovery due to stable tariff risks and supportive policies [3] Group 2: Key Insights on Machinery Equipment - In October, China's engineering machinery import and export trade reached 4.844 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with an average operating rate of 45.56% for the industry [6] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and a favorable domestic investment strategy [6] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with specific companies like 中联重科 (Zoomlion) and 恒立液压 (Hengli Hydraulic) recommended for "increase" ratings [7] Group 3: Key Insights on Metal Industry - Gold prices are expected to rise due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected demand increase from global ETFs and stable industrial demand [8] - Copper supply is anticipated to turn short in 2026, driven by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors and technological advancements, which may support copper prices [8] - Tungsten's strategic value is highlighted by strong demand in high-tech and defense sectors, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated [9] - Cobalt supply is projected to face significant shortfalls due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand from the electric vehicle battery sector expected to rise [9]

今年黑色星期五，美国消费者的购物车发生显著变化，从以往追求大件商品折扣转向囤积狗粮、洗洁精 等生活必需品。这一趋势反映出消费者对关税上涨和生活成本持续攀升的担忧。 全美零售联合会最新数据显示，85%的消费者预期关税将推高商品价格，促使他们在购买策略上更加谨 慎。近三分之二的消费者选择等待感恩节周末的深度折扣进行主要假日购物，人均假日消费支出预计将 较去年创纪录水平小幅下降。 这种购物行为转变在今年夏季就已显现。亚马逊Prime会员日期间，洗洁精和洗碗机清洁剂等家庭用品 跻身热销榜前列。德勤咨询报告显示，64%的消费者计划在10月折扣季购买打折生活必需品，高于2024 年的58%。 美国消费者对个人财务状况的担忧达到2009年以来最高水平，密歇根大学数据显示，高物价和近期裁员 潮引发的就业担忧正重塑消费习惯。 必需品取代奢侈品成购物重心 关税威胁正成为消费者购物决策的重要考量因素。消费者开始批量购买个人护理用品和宠物食品等进口 商品，以避免未来可能的涨价。 政府最新数据显示，9月零售销售失去动能，电子产品、家电、体育用品和书店等品类消费均出现下 滑。美国银行研究所高级经济学家David Tinsley预计，虽然 ...

（记者 胡玲） 截至发稿，佩蒂股份市值为47亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——国开行辟谣的"人民资产"是什么？记者实探：号称投资600元80天赚8万 元！一位投资人的女儿：劝不住她，警察都拦不住 每经AI快讯，佩蒂股份（SZ 300673，收盘价：18.84元）11月26日晚间发布公告称，2025年11月26日， 公司首次实施了本次回购方案，回购方式：集中竞价交易；首次回购股份的数量：309,550股，占公司 实施首次回购前一交易日总股本（248,830,340股）的比例0.1244%；回购价格：最高成交价18.96元/ 股，最低成交价18.77元/股，回购均价18.85元/股；成交总金额：5,834,400元人民币。 2024年1至12月份，佩蒂股份的营业收入构成为：宠物食品及其他占比99.18%，其他业务占比0.82%。 ...