展望2026年，王培认为，科技领域或仍将保持较强的产业势能，而价值风格在经济进入稳态区间后，有 望继续发挥支撑作用，市场或呈现"科技承先、价值续后"的特征。他同时指出，在信息密度、投资标的 类型数量大幅提升的市场环境下，投研体系的系统化与协同化将变得愈发关键，中欧基金权益专户团队 将通过专业化分工与工业化生产线应对市场挑战。 近日，在"看见 中欧基金2026年度投资策略会"上，中欧基金权益专户投委会主席、基金经理王培从长 期周期视角出发，回顾了过去二十余年市场风格的几轮重要切换。他指出，当前市场正处在从高成长向 中等增速过渡的阶段，科技与价值两大方向在新的周期背景下出现重新汇合的趋势。 他认为，第一阶段（2000—2010年）由周期成长风格主导，重化工业、资源行业和中低端制造业是主要 受益者；第二阶段（2010—2021年），随着城镇化率持续提升，内需消费与新兴服务不断升级，创业板 指数在这一时期迎来快速成长，市场风格明显向成长倾斜。 进入2021年以来的第三阶段，市场逐渐从高成长回到中等增速区间，价值风格重新占据主导。他指出， 在这一阶段，科创板指数没有跑赢中证红利指数，市场再次呈现价值回归的特征。同时，科 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with 2024 being a pivotal year for market performance [1] - The long-term growth trajectory of China's economy is a fundamental support for the A-share market [1] - The current low interest rate environment is likely to persist, enhancing the value of equity asset allocation [1] Group 2: Consumption Investment - A favorable configuration opportunity for consumption investment has emerged, with a significant contribution expected from the consumption sector to A-share investments [2] - Traditional consumer stocks with improved competitive landscapes, strong cash flows, and high dividend yields are identified as valuable investment targets [2] - New consumption and service consumption sectors should be explored for growth and innovation potential, with a focus on global market expansion [2] Group 3: Risk Factors - Attention should be paid to the economic recovery process, including factors affecting consumer capacity and willingness, such as prices, employment, and disposable income growth [3] - The effectiveness and timing of consumption-boosting policies need to be monitored, as policy transmission takes time [3] - Industry competition dynamics, particularly in sectors with high brand saturation, should be observed for potential impacts on supply-demand balance and pricing [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to enhance supply-demand adaptability to unlock new consumption increments, driven by changes in consumer demand and expectations [1][2] - The current consumption market in China is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on accelerating the application of new technologies and models, particularly in key industries [1][2] - New consumption increments are emerging from rising household income levels and the diversification of consumer needs across different demographics, leading to the development of niche markets such as the silver economy and Gen Z consumption [1][2] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that from January to October, online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 25.2% of total retail sales, highlighting the rapid growth of digital, green, and health-related consumption [2] - The integration of technological innovation with market demand is crucial, as new technologies like AI and big data are driving transformations in manufacturing and service industries [3] - There is a need to balance the cultivation of new growth points with the consolidation of existing markets, ensuring that the expansion of new consumption does not come at the expense of traditional sectors [3] Group 3 - Expanding new consumption increments requires supportive policies to address challenges such as lack of standards and regulatory frameworks for emerging consumption forms [4] - Recent government measures aimed at promoting consumption, such as incentives for replacing old products and enhancing service consumption, have shown positive results and laid a solid foundation for future growth [4]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, which may indicate a continuation of the bull market rather than its end [1][2] - The first half of the bull market was characterized by a rapid rise in technology stocks, while traditional sectors lagged behind [1][2] - The current economic transition in China is leading to slower growth in traditional industries, while emerging sectors like humanoid robots and semiconductors are thriving [2][3] Group 2 - The recent market adjustments are seen as normal profit-taking rather than a market downturn, with signs of sector rotation emerging [2][3] - The upcoming focus on new industries in the "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights sectors such as humanoid robots, semiconductors, and biopharmaceuticals as key growth areas [3][5] - The leverage in the market has increased, with margin financing exceeding 25 trillion yuan, indicating a concentration of funds in high-performing technology stocks [4][5] Group 3 - The influx of retail savings into the stock market, driven by a lack of opportunities in the real estate sector, is providing significant capital for market growth [5][6] - Despite potential risks in speculative technology stocks, there remains optimism for the long-term performance of the technology sector, drawing parallels with the U.S. market [5][6] - The market is expected to transition from a structural bull market this year to a more comprehensive bull market next year, with opportunities in both technology and consumer sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday, indicating a general optimism about the market's performance post-holiday, with a significant majority opting for high exposure levels [2][5][6]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are choosing to hold heavy or full positions (over 70% exposure) during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [5][6]. - 17.31% of private equity funds are adopting a moderately heavy position (50% to 70% exposure), citing the presence of uncertainties during the holiday but still recognizing structural opportunities in individual stocks [5]. - Only 5.77% of private equity funds are opting for light positions (less than 30% exposure), reflecting a cautious stance due to significant market gains prior to the holiday and potential for adjustments post-holiday [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - 70.19% of private equity funds are optimistic about the A-share market's performance after the holiday, viewing pre-holiday market fluctuations as a consolidation phase, with expectations for gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [8][12]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotations among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [8][9]. - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds favoring sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - The article highlights a consensus among private equity funds that the investment focus will remain on technology growth, with 23.08% firmly optimistic about sectors like AI and semiconductors continuing to perform well [9][10]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are looking at the valuation recovery of the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting these low-valuation areas to provide rebound opportunities as industry policies clarify [9][10]. - The article also notes that 14.42% of private equity funds foresee a "high-low switch" in the market, where previously lagging traditional industries and high-dividend blue chips may experience a resurgence [9].

Group 1 - Recent market trends show a shift in risk appetite, with funds moving away from previously popular tech sectors like AI and seeking undervalued potential in the consumer sector [1][2] - The consumer sector is seen as a favorable investment opportunity, whether through traditional stable consumption or new consumption models, as current policies support consumption recovery [1][2] - The A-share market's long-term positive trend remains intact, with a focus on corporate earnings becoming increasingly important for market performance [1][2] Group 2 - Traditional consumer sectors have experienced significant declines, with the leading consumer ETF (516130) seeing a nearly 60% drop from its peak, currently close to a 50% decline [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of the consumer index is approximately 18 times, which is lower than 88% of the past five years, while the return on equity (ROE) remains above 20%, indicating strong asset characteristics [2] - The performance of the consumer sector is expected to improve as policies stimulate consumption and market focus shifts to profitability [2] Group 3 - New consumption opportunities driven by new demographics and technologies are emerging, with funds like the Huabao CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen New Consumption Index Fund (A: 017434; C: 017435) covering a broad range of new consumption stocks [3] - Historical performance of the new consumption index shows significant gains during bull markets, outperforming other indices, indicating potential for higher returns if the consumer sector strengthens [3]

Group 1 - The chairman and investment director of Yongjin Investment, Xie Xiaoyong, stated that traditional consumer leading companies' valuations are currently at a low level after a long adjustment period, making them increasingly attractive for allocation as the overall market valuation rises [1] - Xie expressed a cautious attitude towards the new consumption sector, which has performed strongly this year, indicating that many stocks in this sector lack catalysts for further price increases due to high valuations and expectations, with only a few companies showing sustainable growth [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Consumption Index (HSCGSI) increased by 0.97%, with significant gains from stocks such as Pop Mart (09992) up 11.47% and Lao Pu Gold (06181) up 8.14% [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (513970) experienced a 1.08% rise, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with an active trading volume of 1.81 billion yuan [1] - Pop Mart's stock price surged to 305 HKD per share, reaching a market capitalization of over 400 billion HKD, driven by a strong financial performance with a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, up 204.4%, and a net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [1] Group 2 - Debon Securities highlighted that supply-side innovations in the consumer sector are creating demand, suggesting a more sustainable growth compared to traditional demand-side policies [2] - Shanghai Securities noted that the rise of domestic IP and the Z-generation's self-indulgent consumption are driving demand growth, with a shift from Japanese-led industries to domestic competition [2] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF tracks an index that excludes liquor stocks, featuring both traditional and emerging consumer leaders, with Pop Mart being the largest component at 11.22% weight [2]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of global AI development is shifting from hardware infrastructure to software applications, with China positioned advantageously due to its low-cost, open-source AI services, potentially gaining greater influence in AI standard-setting [1]. Investment Framework - The investment research framework established by the company categorizes sources of excess returns into four types of alpha: growth, value, cyclical, and opportunity [3]. - The framework includes four perspectives: financial analysis based on historical performance, long-term development outlook, legal compliance verification, and internal model application for alpha weight distribution [3]. Growth Alpha - Growth alpha emphasizes the sustainability of growth, requiring high industry barriers, excellent management, and significant industry space [4]. - In the AI sector, the company focuses on midstream AI cloud computing providers and various downstream vertical applications, leveraging China's large user base and rich application scenarios [4]. Value Alpha - High-dividend stocks overlap significantly with value alpha, particularly in sectors like life insurance, utilities, and traditional manufacturing, which can complement investment portfolios [5]. - The company notes that many life insurance companies are undervalued compared to their intrinsic value [5]. Cyclical Alpha - The company is optimistic about a leading equipment manufacturing company in the durable goods sector, which is experiencing an upward trend post-2023 cycle bottom [5]. Market Outlook - The company expresses a more optimistic view on investment opportunities in the Chinese market, highlighting a supportive domestic policy environment and increased market activity [7]. - The company sees structural opportunities in the Hong Kong market, particularly in consumer sectors, as consumer confidence is expected to improve with stabilizing housing prices [7][8]. Sector Focus - The company is particularly bullish on traditional consumer brands, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the internet sector, anticipating a recovery in market sentiment and advertising revenue as the economy stabilizes [8]. - The company also sees potential in the military industry as a long-term driver of technological upgrades [9].

Group 1 - The current consumer industry shows two clear trends: more efficient sales channels and products that better meet diverse consumer needs [1] - Focus areas include emotional consumption sectors such as the millet economy, pet economy, and cosmetics [1] - Traditional consumer blue-chip stocks have potential for valuation recovery due to historical low valuation levels after three years of profit and valuation adjustments [2] Group 2 - The strong manufacturing base in China makes it difficult for monopolies to exist in most consumer goods sectors, with competitive advantages stemming from operational and production efficiency [1] - Consumer demand is complex and varied, leading to investment opportunities in areas like dopamine products, health, gaming, anime, social interaction, pets, and IP premium [1] - Recent domestic demand expansion policies have alleviated market pessimism regarding traditional consumer stocks, with many companies exceeding previous negative expectations in high-frequency data [2]