大摩宏观闭门会：反内卷，见真章？关注三个重要政策的拐点 20250707 发言人 00:00 大家上午好，欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。今天我们关注三个重要的政策 拐点。首先是美国通过了大而美法案，那么他对美国经济、美国市场以及长期大家担心的美国财政的可 持续性分别有什么影响？今天我和我们的首席策略是 loa，会一起来解读大而美法案的市场影响力。 发言人 00:28 同样 7 月 9 号，也就是说这周会迎来关税战暂停键的大限已经到了。那经历了这个大限日期之后，到底 各国跟美国之间的贸易摩擦何去何从？同样 loa 跟我也会根据我们全球地缘政治形势，团队对这个问题 最近的一些分析判断跟大家进行分享。国内的政策以及消费科技层面也面临很大的拐点和辩论。过去几 天了，我一直先是在北京出差，参加了几场政策研讨会。之后也在深圳，你今天在上海跟一些投资者， 本地的企业家，就市场预期和热点辩论进行了交流。很显然，大家都注意到，无论是中央层面的顶层设 计，比如说中财委的会议和接下来政治局可能讨论的问题，还是在南方，不管是深圳还是上海等地制造 业前沿的市场反馈，都释放出了一个共同的信号。甚至这个信号 ...

Group 1 - Recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has significantly impacted global oil prices, leading to a substantial increase in international oil prices due to the region's status as a major oil exporter and the risk of a broader war between Israel and Iran [1] - Rising oil prices will increase production costs for industrial companies that rely on oil as a raw material and fuel, potentially affecting their profits [1] - Oil companies with existing oil inventories may benefit from the appreciation of their stock, leading to increased revenue [1] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations have shown progress, with a joint statement released in Geneva and a temporary suspension of tariff increases for 90 days, which may be extended [2] - China's relaxation of rare earth export policies signals a positive development in trade relations, which could lead to a normalization of trade and support a recovery in global trade [2] - The U.S. stock market has seen a recent rebound, but valuations remain high, while the Hong Kong stock market is positioned for potential recovery due to lower valuations [2] Group 3 - China's economic data indicates significant growth in consumption driven by policies like the trade-in program, although fixed asset investment and industrial output growth remain low, suggesting insufficient growth momentum [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown negative growth for three consecutive months, indicating a need for continued policy measures to boost domestic demand [3] - The internationalization of the Chinese yuan is accelerating, with more countries adopting it for trade settlements, reflecting a clear trend towards de-dollarization [3] Group 4 - The technology sector, particularly in areas like humanoid robots and AI, is expected to lead market growth during a potential recovery, with significant growth opportunities in household applications [3] - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence, with new consumption models thriving among younger demographics, while traditional consumer goods may face short-term pressure but could recover in an upward economic cycle [3]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical stocks have collectively surged, particularly in the innovative drug sector, boosting market confidence and leading to the ChiNext Index surpassing the 3400-point mark [1] - Various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, such as innovative drugs, CRO, and weight-loss drugs, have shown strong performance, indicating a robust recovery after years of adjustment due to centralized procurement [1] - China's innovative drug sector has made significant progress, with 73 studies selected for oral presentations at the 2025 ASCO, including 11 major research abstracts [1] - The total value of outbound licensing transactions for Chinese innovative drugs reached $51.9 billion in 2024, marking a 26% year-on-year increase, with Q1 2025 alone accounting for $36.93 billion [1] - The low R&D costs in China, combined with a skilled workforce, have positioned many pharmaceutical companies to conduct R&D outsourcing for global pharmaceutical giants, particularly in the Hong Kong market [1] - After years of decline, pharmaceutical stocks are gaining momentum, with many still trading at low valuations, especially those with innovative capabilities [1] Group 2: Technology and Consumer Sectors - The biotechnology sector is fundamentally part of the technology sector, which is currently characterized by a tech bull market expected to continue throughout the year [2] - The new consumption sector remains strong, but there are concerns about potential valuation bubbles due to significant price increases [2] - Traditional consumption has been underperforming, influenced by declining growth in household income, leading to a prolonged drop in stock prices and valuations [2] - Investors are increasingly focusing on emerging industries that represent economic development directions, indicating a shift in investment strategies [2] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - Recent government policies aim to improve living standards by raising the minimum wage, which is expected to enhance overall wage levels and stimulate consumption [3] - A vibrant stock market is seen as a crucial mechanism for boosting consumer spending, which is a primary driver of economic recovery [3] - With household savings reaching 160 trillion yuan, there is a growing need for new investment opportunities, as traditional real estate investments are becoming less attractive [3] - The stability of the stock market is essential for preserving and increasing investor wealth, attracting long-term capital, and providing companies with better financing channels for R&D and production expansion [3]

新消费与传统成长选择 20250602 摘要 新消费领域通过内容营销进行品类创新，在日化、个护、保健品等领域 表现突出，当前估值处于一倍到 1.3 倍 PEG 之间，与 2019 年股市爬坡 期类似，风险偏好中等偏高，或将进入阶段性盘整。 传统成长股如东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒估值偏低，PEG 低于 1，利润增长预 计超 30%，二季度旺季动销加速概率大，或有绝对和相对收益，传统消 费估值不高时或是配置重点。 2025 年新消费仍是首选，美妆（若羽臣、景峰医药、增康润本等）和 零食（盐津铺子、卫龙、百龙创源等）是重点；传统成长方面，关注无 糖茶增长的东鹏饮料和改善周期的燕京啤酒。 新消费增长点集中在情绪消费、新技术（AI）和新渠道，上半年表现理 想，业绩兑现度高，估值合理。6 月催化剂包括小米智能眼镜新品发布、 孩子王 AI 玩具推出、小商品城六区市场招商。 家电行业关注旧换新政策落地和 618 促销影响，截至 5 月 31 日，12 个 品类销量同比增长 39%，国补政策效果显著，但部分地区调整补贴进度。 立减促销对格力、小天鹅等龙头有利，关注美的集团、海尔等稳健龙头。 Q&A 当前新消费领域的创新周期与上一轮相比 ...

近期，中美关税谈判取得阶段性成果，推动市场风险偏好回暖，各方不断出台的利好政策亦提振投资者情绪，"东稳西荡"的格局下，中 国资产向上重估已成为国内外不少投资者的共识。在此背景下，借道相对均衡的宽基指数，或可较为全面把握板块上涨的机会。 为满足投资者对于宽基指数产品日益增长的配置需求，富国深证100ETF联接基金（A类：024146；C类：024147）于今日正式发行。该 基金投资于目标ETF"深证100ETF富国"，紧密跟踪深市旗舰型指数"深证100指数"，指数汇聚深市大市值核心资产，尽显新质生产力成 长本色，行业分布均衡，历史业绩领跑同类宽基指数且牛市弹性更佳，为场外投资者提供了便捷布局深市核心资产的趁手工具，助力投 资者共享中国经济增长的红利。 深市旗舰宽基，聚焦AI+消费 数据来源：深圳证券信息有限公司、Wind，截至2025年4月30日。 业绩领跑，成长可期 由于深证100指数契合我国产业结构转型和经济发展的方向，其超额收益显著，长期业绩在市场主要宽基指数中表现优异。Wind数据显 示，截至2025年5月9日，深证100指数自2002年12月31日基日以来累计涨幅为344.90%，远超同期沪深300、 ...

当前时点，A 股与港股怎么看？20250521 摘要 企业盈利预期稳定，贸易战硬数据冲击尚未显现，政策支持逐步落地， A 股震荡中枢预计上修至半年线附近，不宜过度下调全年盈利预测。 A 股市场缺乏主线逻辑，板块轮动迅速。中美贸易休战窗口期，美国进 口商或加速备货，短期利好港口、航运板块，中国制造业的全球竞争力 持续提升。 大宗商品价格受关税冲击影响，油价受多重利空因素压制，但中东局势 变化和需求恢复可能推动油价回升，工业金属需求也将随各国自主可控 发展而上升，低位是布局机会。 公募基金新规扰动市场，但小逻辑也引发关注。银行、非银、公用事业、 生物医药、石油石化等欠配行业或受青睐，电子、电力设备等超配板块 可能受损。 公募基金或逐步调整业绩基准，选择更贴合自身配置行业和风格的指数， 短期活跃资金可能减少。持续看好新消费领域，但传统消费刺激政策短 期效果有限，6 月或是更好时间节点。 Q&A 当前 A 股市场的整体趋势如何？ 当前 A 股市场处于宏观叙事逐步退潮的背景下，贸易战休战及内需财政政策预 期降低。我们维持震荡区间的判断，但认为震荡中枢有所调升。中国出口竞争 力未受破坏，加上降准降息等刺激政策，企业盈利预 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the breakdown of high-level stock groupings and the emergence of new leading sectors, indicating a shift in investment focus from old themes to new ones [1][2] - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with many stocks hitting their daily limit down, suggesting a complete explosion of the profit effect in this sector [2][4] - The consumer sector, particularly in IP economy, pet economy, and traditional consumption, is highlighted as a new focus for investment, driven by the upcoming 618 shopping festival [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the current market has two stocks reaching four consecutive limit up days, indicating strong momentum in the consumer sector, particularly in anti-aging health products and pet economy [3] - The pest control sector is also seeing a surge, with a notable increase in stock performance, suggesting potential for new highs similar to previous market events [3][4] - The overall sentiment indicates that as long as there are no significant losses in the sectors, the focus will remain on stocks like Zhongyida, which are expected to drive the main market trends [2][4] Group 3 - The article provides insights into various ETFs, including the Food and Beverage ETF, which has seen a slight decrease in value but an increase in shares, indicating ongoing interest [6] - The Gaming ETF has experienced a decline in shares, but still shows a net inflow of funds, suggesting some investor confidence despite the drop [6] - The Cloud Computing ETF has also seen a decrease in shares, reflecting a broader trend of cautious investment in high-valuation sectors [7][8]

提问 最近新消费很火，年轻人都在冲文创周边或者各种谷子、盲盒，从研究员的角度看，这种趋势是可 持续的吗？ 陈太中 这个问题我想从一个"老消费"或者"传统消费"研究员的角度去梳理"新消费"现象。 持续性的问题，在任何一个生意当中都是关键。 我们在做投资的时候，时间变量都是价值评估的核心， 这是一个非常重要的视角。不管我们研究的对象是什么形态的消费载体，我们都需要去判断收入趋势的持 续性，进而到盈利能力的持续性。 回到这类新消费，从供需两个维度来看。需求维度，现在讨论的新消费，部分生意具有时代的新特点。原 来没有这样的场景，但是随着中国经济发展，在基础类的功能需求得到满足之后，消费往两个方向升级。 一个方向是更高的功能性需求，比如功能性更强的跑鞋，比如洗地机对拖布的升级、空气炸锅等，都是在 更细分的场景中提高产品品质，满足专业化的需求。 持有人新福利！ 参与投票本季心动好书，即可抽 超千元的墨水屏阅读器、姜诚同款阅读支架、读书 月卡、实体书 等悦读好礼，扫码即可直达 扩大内需的背景下，提振消费被寄予了厚望。事实上，这几年以盲盒、谷子为代表的新消费确实是迅速崛 起的新势力。相比之下，曾经光芒万丈的白酒、啤酒、牛奶、 ...

在传统消费板块仍较为低迷的情况下，一些新消费个股成为基金经理的"新宠"。 证券时报记者注意到，包括富国全球消费基金、海富通消费优选基金、南方中国新兴经济基金、南方香 港成长基金、银华品质消费基金均在今年以来的市场行情中取得不俗的收益，这些基金有一个共同的特 点，那就是持仓主要指向新消费赛道，并降低传统消费赛道的仓位。例如，富国全球消费基金今年以来 的收益率达26%，该基金前十大重仓股几乎全部指向以女性消费为特点的新消费领域，前十大股票中唯 一持仓的白酒股仓位不足3%。 证券时报记者注意到，今年以来，重仓新消费的多只基金产品持续跑赢市场，而垫底的消费主题基金则 大多重仓以白酒为主的传统消费板块。业内人士指出，部分新消费板块处于景气度上升的阶段，所以吸 引了大量机构资金抱团关注。不过，新消费品种在股票市场呈现零散分布状态，相对传统的消费板块在 研究上更耗时费力。 新消费跑赢传统消费 尽管4月8日以来股市反复波动，但以新消费为代表的公募重仓股走势颇为凌厉。例如，南方基金重仓的 修图软件股美图公司反弹幅度达33%，宏利基金重仓的游戏股心动公司反弹幅度接近28%，国泰基金重 仓的医生社区平台医脉通反弹幅度达27%，广发 ...

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