专题：投资好时节 嘉实基金2026投资策略峰会 1月23日，嘉实基金2026年度投资策略峰会在上海举行。在本次峰会特别设置的嘉实基金"投资好时 节"与小红书"万物有时节"线上联名消费专场——《既要"人感消费"，也要"人感投资"》圆桌对话中， 财经博主@晓鸥姐姐担纲主持，与嘉实优享生活基金经理郭弘毅、微博财经达人@奶员外、小红书商业 金融行业负责人木暮三位嘉宾，就新消费趋势、传统消费价值及投资实践等议题展开了深度探讨。 2026年投资展望：传统消费迎来拐点，新消费聚焦成长 针对2026年投资布局，郭弘毅提出了清晰的"双主线"逻辑。一方面，传统消费领域或迎来中期拐点机 会。在过去几年持续承压后，诸多行业出现供给收缩态势（企业纷纷缩减资本开支），而需求端已显现 从高端消费逐步复苏的迹象；叠加当前估值与机构持仓均处于历史低位，该领域的风险收益比具备显著 吸引力。另一方面，新消费领域将持续涌现结构性成长机会，那些能通过产品创新、商业模式革新，精 准满足新一代消费者需求变化的品牌，拥有较强的高成长潜力。 木暮从用户行为视角补充说明，消费与金融的边界正日益模糊，呈现出"消费资产化"的鲜明趋势。例 如，黄金被视作"佩戴在身上 ...

相较沪深300而言，中证A500强调行业均衡与细分龙头，其风格更分散、成长性暴露更高，能在产业结 构升级周期提供更优的Beta底盘。所以，其指数历史走势更优。截至2025年末，中证A500指数基日以 来涨幅高达464.28%，而同期沪深300指数为361.15%，超额103.13个百分点。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 1月21日，中证A500ETF（159338）盘中涨超0.8%，科技成长依然是本轮牛市的行业主线。 国信证券指出，对于本轮春季行情期间的行业配置，首先认为在AI浪潮驱动下，科技成长依然是本轮 牛市的行业主线。近期AI应用端催化频现，借鉴2015年和2021年牛市经验，本轮科技行情有望从算力 基建向应用扩散，建议关注AI应用落地的细分板块。此外，部分价值板块配置机会或也值得关注，如 低估值的地产等老登资产；受益于成交放量、业绩预期有望改善的非银；以及内需政策发力的传统消费 和受益涨价逻辑的上游资源品等。 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a divergence where certain sectors like commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and autonomous driving are seeing significant gains, while traditional sectors like liquor and consumer goods are declining [3][15] - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to fund reallocation by institutions, moving away from previously high-performing sectors like AI computing towards areas with strong policy support and low valuations [3][15] - Private equity firms are focusing on stocks that can genuinely benefit from industry trends, emphasizing the importance of commercial viability and cautioning against purely speculative investments [3][15] Group 2 - The misconception that all stocks rise in a bull market leads to poor investment decisions, as many sectors can still decline despite overall index gains [4][7] - Institutional behavior is a more reliable indicator of stock performance than news, as seen in the liquor sector where institutional participation waned despite positive consumption forecasts [7][13] - Data analytics can help identify stocks with active institutional involvement, which is crucial for making informed investment decisions [14][15] Group 3 - The current market divergence is viewed as an opportunity to identify stocks with sustained institutional support, particularly in emerging sectors like AI integration and engineering applications of superconductors [15][16] - Understanding who is participating in the market is essential for navigating the year-end volatility and positioning for future growth [15][16]

Group 1: Market Overview - The capital market in China is expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, with major indices surpassing the 4000-point mark, although there is significant structural differentiation in market performance [1][6] - Investors focusing on the banking and technology sectors have seen good returns, while others have had limited gains, leading to skepticism about the bull market despite the index levels [1][6] - As 2025 comes to a close, some investors are taking profits, resulting in market adjustments, but this phase is nearing its end, and funds are gradually entering the market for 2026 [1][6] Group 2: Economic Outlook for 2026 - The macroeconomic environment is expected to show signs of recovery in 2026, supported by more proactive growth policies and measures to stabilize the real estate market [1][2] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined specific economic tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of boosting domestic demand to stabilize economic growth [1][9] - Inflation is projected to rise, with CPI expected to gradually return to around 2%, while PPI may turn positive due to policies aimed at reducing overcapacity [1][2] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Enhancing domestic demand requires increasing residents' income levels, as current pressures on businesses make it difficult to raise wages [2][9] - The capital market's strength may provide opportunities for stockholders and mutual fund investors to gain wealth, which could stimulate consumer spending [2][9] - New consumption models have shown strong performance in 2025, and as the stock market improves, consumer spending growth is anticipated to rebound in 2026 [4][9] Group 4: Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential further declines in deposit and loan rates, encouraging savings to shift towards capital markets [3][8] - The fiscal deficit rate exceeded 3% in 2025, reaching 4%, and is expected to remain around 4% in 2026, which will support local government debt management and consumption initiatives [2][3] Group 5: International Trade and Currency - China's export trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, and exports are expected to remain stable in 2026, supported by a potential agreement in US-China trade relations [2][10] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, enhancing the international status of the RMB and its role in global trade [5][10] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, potentially strengthening the RMB and attracting more foreign investment into A-shares [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is witnessing a significant inflow of funds into the CSI A500 ETF, indicating a shift in institutional investment strategies towards lower valuation sectors as the year-end approaches [1][5][7]. Group 1: Fund Inflows and Market Activity - As of December 19, the CSI A500 ETF has surpassed the CSI 300 in net inflows since December, with a total inflow exceeding 460 billion yuan, including a single-day inflow of over 100 billion yuan on December 17 [2][4]. - The trading volume of the CSI A500 ETF has been notably active since December 10, with daily transaction amounts exceeding 300 billion yuan, reaching a peak of 525.76 billion yuan on December 19 [3][4]. - The total scale of the CSI A500 ETF has surpassed 240 billion yuan, with significant contributions from major funds such as Huatai-PB and Southern Asset Management [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Strategies - Institutional investors are shifting their focus from high-valuation technology sectors to lower-valuation areas, indicating a "high-low switch" in investment strategies as they enter a "yield protection battle" phase [5][7]. - The low interest rate environment is driving a trend of "funds moving" from savings to equity markets, with average returns on equity funds reaching 28.18% year-to-date [6][7]. - Analysts predict that 2026 will see a more balanced market, with opportunities in cyclical industries and high-return sectors, as well as continued interest in technology and innovation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is transitioning from high growth to moderate growth, with a trend of convergence between technology and value sectors in the new cycle [1] Group 1: Market Cycle Analysis - Understanding cyclical changes is essential for future market judgments, with significant shifts observed over the past two decades [2] - The first phase (2000-2010) was dominated by cyclical growth, benefiting heavy industries, resource sectors, and low-end manufacturing [3] - The second phase (2010-2021) saw a shift towards growth, driven by urbanization and the rise of consumer demand and emerging services, with the ChiNext index experiencing rapid growth [3] - Since 2021, the market has gradually shifted back to moderate growth, with value styles regaining dominance, as evidenced by the performance of the STAR Market index compared to the CSI Dividend Index [3] - Long-term migration of industry weights indicates structural upgrades, with technology, consumer healthcare, and cyclical finance gaining share in the CSI 300 over the past 16 years [3] Group 2: Future Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 is summarized by three keywords: technology leading, value following, and returning to leaders, based on long-term industry structural evolution [4] - The current AI narrative, represented by the STAR Market, mirrors the technology cycle from 2011 to 2015, but with different supporting backgrounds such as demographic changes and geopolitical factors [4] - Key signals for market improvement include PPI and inventory conditions, with expectations for corporate performance to improve in mid-2024 following a low PPI point [4][5] Group 3: Investment Directions - The market is witnessing a recovery in value sectors, which may present structural opportunities in 2026, especially after a year of significant underperformance compared to growth sectors [6] - Investment focus will include cyclical industries (oil, coal, basic metals), non-banking sectors (insurance, brokerage), high ROE industries (internet, traditional consumption), and new cycle industries (new energy, power equipment) [6] - Continuous themes may emerge in CXO, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI applications, and humanoid robotics, although market volatility is expected to increase [6] Group 4: Research and Investment Strategy - The exponential growth of fund numbers, asset management scale, and listed companies has increased information density, posing challenges for research and investment [7] - The company is developing a systematic investment approach through professional division of labor and industrialized production lines to meet client needs [7] - AI is anticipated to become a core capability in active management, fundamentally reshaping the research and investment chain over the next three years [7]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with 2024 being a pivotal year for market performance [1] - The long-term growth trajectory of China's economy is a fundamental support for the A-share market [1] - The current low interest rate environment is likely to persist, enhancing the value of equity asset allocation [1] Group 2: Consumption Investment - A favorable configuration opportunity for consumption investment has emerged, with a significant contribution expected from the consumption sector to A-share investments [2] - Traditional consumer stocks with improved competitive landscapes, strong cash flows, and high dividend yields are identified as valuable investment targets [2] - New consumption and service consumption sectors should be explored for growth and innovation potential, with a focus on global market expansion [2] Group 3: Risk Factors - Attention should be paid to the economic recovery process, including factors affecting consumer capacity and willingness, such as prices, employment, and disposable income growth [3] - The effectiveness and timing of consumption-boosting policies need to be monitored, as policy transmission takes time [3] - Industry competition dynamics, particularly in sectors with high brand saturation, should be observed for potential impacts on supply-demand balance and pricing [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to enhance supply-demand adaptability to unlock new consumption increments, driven by changes in consumer demand and expectations [1][2] - The current consumption market in China is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on accelerating the application of new technologies and models, particularly in key industries [1][2] - New consumption increments are emerging from rising household income levels and the diversification of consumer needs across different demographics, leading to the development of niche markets such as the silver economy and Gen Z consumption [1][2] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that from January to October, online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 25.2% of total retail sales, highlighting the rapid growth of digital, green, and health-related consumption [2] - The integration of technological innovation with market demand is crucial, as new technologies like AI and big data are driving transformations in manufacturing and service industries [3] - There is a need to balance the cultivation of new growth points with the consolidation of existing markets, ensuring that the expansion of new consumption does not come at the expense of traditional sectors [3] Group 3 - Expanding new consumption increments requires supportive policies to address challenges such as lack of standards and regulatory frameworks for emerging consumption forms [4] - Recent government measures aimed at promoting consumption, such as incentives for replacing old products and enhancing service consumption, have shown positive results and laid a solid foundation for future growth [4]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, which may indicate a continuation of the bull market rather than its end [1][2] - The first half of the bull market was characterized by a rapid rise in technology stocks, while traditional sectors lagged behind [1][2] - The current economic transition in China is leading to slower growth in traditional industries, while emerging sectors like humanoid robots and semiconductors are thriving [2][3] Group 2 - The recent market adjustments are seen as normal profit-taking rather than a market downturn, with signs of sector rotation emerging [2][3] - The upcoming focus on new industries in the "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights sectors such as humanoid robots, semiconductors, and biopharmaceuticals as key growth areas [3][5] - The leverage in the market has increased, with margin financing exceeding 25 trillion yuan, indicating a concentration of funds in high-performing technology stocks [4][5] Group 3 - The influx of retail savings into the stock market, driven by a lack of opportunities in the real estate sector, is providing significant capital for market growth [5][6] - Despite potential risks in speculative technology stocks, there remains optimism for the long-term performance of the technology sector, drawing parallels with the U.S. market [5][6] - The market is expected to transition from a structural bull market this year to a more comprehensive bull market next year, with opportunities in both technology and consumer sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday, indicating a general optimism about the market's performance post-holiday, with a significant majority opting for high exposure levels [2][5][6]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are choosing to hold heavy or full positions (over 70% exposure) during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [5][6]. - 17.31% of private equity funds are adopting a moderately heavy position (50% to 70% exposure), citing the presence of uncertainties during the holiday but still recognizing structural opportunities in individual stocks [5]. - Only 5.77% of private equity funds are opting for light positions (less than 30% exposure), reflecting a cautious stance due to significant market gains prior to the holiday and potential for adjustments post-holiday [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - 70.19% of private equity funds are optimistic about the A-share market's performance after the holiday, viewing pre-holiday market fluctuations as a consolidation phase, with expectations for gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [8][12]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotations among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [8][9]. - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds favoring sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - The article highlights a consensus among private equity funds that the investment focus will remain on technology growth, with 23.08% firmly optimistic about sectors like AI and semiconductors continuing to perform well [9][10]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are looking at the valuation recovery of the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting these low-valuation areas to provide rebound opportunities as industry policies clarify [9][10]. - The article also notes that 14.42% of private equity funds foresee a "high-low switch" in the market, where previously lagging traditional industries and high-dividend blue chips may experience a resurgence [9].