Report Overview - Report Title: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues may reduce short - term imports. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has found it to be established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From November 6th to 14th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3078 - 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 - 31.41 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 442 to 506 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 14th, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2601 decreased from 2549 to 2490 yuan/ton, the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated slightly, and the rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) decreased from 2650 to 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From November 5th to 14th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745, with a decrease of 200 on November 6th and remaining stable thereafter [17]. - **Other Data**: Imported rapeseed arrivals have no shipping schedule forecast for November, and import costs are affected by tariffs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [23][25][35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal first rose and then fell, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market, and the short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. It is rated as neutral [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2600, the basis is 110, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared to last week's 18,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 22,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, it has returned to a range - bound pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal to oscillate and rebound. It is currently in an interval oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement rumors of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate with a slight upward trend. For the RM2601 contract, it oscillates around 2400 in the short term, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - The rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and in a technical oscillation adjustment. The market returns to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain an interval oscillation in the short term, affected by soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced the short - term export and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - **Bearish factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. - **Import and production situation**: There is no ship schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories continue to decline. - **Aquaculture situation**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [16][18][19]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The rapeseed meal rebounds with the soybean meal and returns to an interval oscillation pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The future China - Canada trade relationship is uncertain, affecting the market. - The KDJ indicator rebounds from a low level. It is in a short - term technical rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limits the rebound height. - The MACD rebounds from a low level, and the green energy turns red. The subsequent upward trend depends on the soybean meal and rapeseed import policies. Overall, the rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds in the short term and maintains an interval oscillation in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends [42]. 3.6 Next Week's Focus - **Most important**: The harvesting weather in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. - **Second important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2300 - 2360 range oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is 133, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is 1.75 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing in, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, global geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 14th to 22nd, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 - 2992, and the trading volume was between 6.51 - 18.62 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2500, and the trading volume was 0. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2440 - 2500. The rapeseed meal futures prices of the 2601 and 2605 contracts fluctuated. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9089 on October 13th to 4702 on October 22nd. Rapeseed meal futures declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory was flat. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][16]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report

Group 1 - Palm oil and imported rapeseed oil spot prices have risen across the board, while domestic rapeseed meal and white sugar prices have mostly declined, with domestic soybean oil and cotton prices remaining stable. The rapeseed meal spot price has decreased by 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of October 14, the main contract for rapeseed meal futures closed at 2348.00 yuan/ton, down 2.09%, with a daily trading volume of 274,532 contracts [2] - Coastal regions' major oil mills have a rapeseed inventory of 18,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week, while rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 16,700 tons to 60,000 tons [3] Group 2 - The number of rapeseed meal futures warehouse receipts on October 13 was 9,089, a decrease of 110 from the previous trading day [4] - According to a report by Ruida Futures, there has been no substantial progress in trade negotiations between China and the U.S. or China and Canada, which will limit rapeseed and soybean imports in the fourth quarter, resulting in relatively low supply-side pressure. However, as temperatures drop, demand for aquaculture is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in rapeseed meal demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and fluctuates following the soybean meal. It is currently in a short - term oscillatory pattern due to factors such as the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, the changing demand season, and uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate moderately strongly. For the single - side operation of RM2601, it is expected to oscillate around 2400, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have led to a short - term reduction in exports and a tight supply in the domestic market [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canada's output higher than expected. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset the impact of Ukraine's rapeseed production reduction and Russia's increase. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in October remains stable, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low, the rapeseed inventory in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory remains flat [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate downward, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expands. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [33][37]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are also involved [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bearish [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern after the positive factors are exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a short - term weak oscillatory pattern. The KDJ indicator oscillates at a low level, and the MACD oscillates downward. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound, and the future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The harvesting weather in US soybean producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rapeseed meal industry is neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal has been fluctuating and declining, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market will be affected by news in the short term and maintain a volatile pattern [8] - Rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With recent rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada, it has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - The report provides an overall view of rapeseed meal, including its current market situation, influencing factors, and future trends [8] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations [10] - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [10] - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodity prices [10] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [11] - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [11] - The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [18] - Oil mill processing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills decreased significantly, rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week [20][22] - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [32] - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [30] 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [8] 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The RM2601 contract will fluctuate around 2500 in the short term. It is recommended to trade in the range or wait and see [12] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [12] 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the short - term positive factors are exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a slightly bullish volatile pattern in the short term, but the future of China - Canada trade relations is uncertain [41] - The KDJ indicator is fluctuating at a low level, indicating a technical consolidation stage. It may maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [41] - The MACD is declining, showing a slightly bearish short - term trend, but the green energy has not expanded. The future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [41] 3.8 Next Week's Focus - Most important: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44] - Second most important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [45] - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. Amid frequent trade policy news, the market is cautious, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, domestic consumption support is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oil is still loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure. Before the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation makes substantial progress, rapeseed oil may maintain a relatively strong oscillation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures收盘价(活跃合约) of rapeseed oil dropped by 147 yuan/ton to 9996 yuan/ton [2]. - There were changes in month - to - month spreads, open interest, net long positions, and warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related substitutes decreased. For instance, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu dropped by 160 yuan/ton to 10050 yuan/ton [2]. - The oil - meal ratio increased by 0.06 to 3.9, and there were changes in basis and spot price differences between different oils and meals [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production increased slightly, and the import volume of rapeseed increased by 7.06 tons to 24.66 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit increased by 56 yuan/ton to 987 yuan/ton [2]. - The oil mill inventory of rapeseed remained unchanged, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed increased by 0.27% to 13.06% [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, and the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal, East China, and other regions also changed. For example, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 1 ton to 14 tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed increased by 99.9 tons to 2927.2 tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil increased by 30 tons to 450.6 tons. The monthly catering revenue decreased by 8.4 billion yuan to 4495.7 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility and historical volatility of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil options changed. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal increased by 1.79% to 18.8% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures declined due to the weakness of CBOT soybean oil futures. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as harvest area adjustment, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural export taxes may intensify international competition [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will enter a pattern of strong oscillation, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rebounding, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade negotiations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From August 20th to 29th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the 2601 contract showing a weak oscillation. Rapeseed meal futures oscillated and declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% compared to last week's 25,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared to last year's 28,000 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at oil mills rebounded from a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills decreased slightly [9][24][26]. - **Production and Price of Aquatic Products**: The production and price of aquatic products showed different trends. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: "利好出尽，菜粕冲高回落（菜粕周报8.18 - 8.22）" [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is influenced by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports, the demand seasonality, and the soybean meal market. In the short term, it is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, but there are still uncertainties [8]. - The trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is short - term volatile and relatively strong, with the RM2601 contract oscillating above 2500 in the short term. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the supply expectation of the domestic rapeseed market has improved while demand remains strong [10]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The result of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly due to lower - than - expected yields in the EU and Canada [10]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts still supports commodity prices [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, the harvest area, production, total supply, and other indicators of domestic rapeseed have changed. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 0.87% - 7.19% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, the production, total supply, demand, and inventory of domestic rapeseed meal have changed. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 2.47% - 10.55% [18]. - **Other Fundamental Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost; the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly; the rapeseed inventory in oil mills dropped to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly; the prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimp and shellfish remained stable; the rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards after rising, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium narrowed; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract was weakly volatile [19][21][23][31][33][37]. 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players in the rapeseed meal market increased, and the funds flowed out [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal is in a short - and medium - term volatile and relatively strong pattern. The KDJ and MACD indicators show that the short - term market is in a technical adjustment phase, and the future trend depends on policies and the soybean meal market [43]. 7. Next Week's Focus - Most important: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas; the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand; the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - Second most important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [47]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by the news of Australian seed imports and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it is in a moderately strong oscillating pattern [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the price. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade consultations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2540 - 2600 range. The market is affected by the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the news of Australian seed imports. The short - term outlook is moderately strong oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand balance sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] - **Price and trading volume**: Data on the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 12 - 21 are provided, as well as the price comparison between rapeseed meal futures and spot [13][15]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from August 12 - 21 is provided, showing a decreasing trend [17]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9].