交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦炭价格经过四轮下调，焦企利润受到挤压，对高价煤的接受力度有限，市场情绪走低，后 市仍有看降预期，当前对炼焦煤的采购也相对谨慎，多以刚需采购为主期，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运 行。 1、基本面：前期因生产任务停产煤矿大面积开工，煤矿生产快速恢复，短期炼焦煤产量有望回升。目 前焦炭第四轮提降已全面落地，且仍有再降预期，原料端情绪降温明显，中间环节多下调报价加快出货， 下游焦企也多减缓采购，煤矿签单不畅，多煤种报价出现下调；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差-15； ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-26） 6、预期：焦炭经过三轮降价，钢厂利润恢复不佳，仍有继续提降预期。然焦化企业利润亦有限，短期 下游对高价煤的接受程度仍不高，部分原料煤库存偏高位的焦钢企业有控制到货现象，预计短期焦煤价 格或偏弱运行。 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期中间洗煤贸易企业拿货数量谨慎，小单成交，投机行为较少，手中库存高价成交仍显 乏力。线上竞拍流拍比稍有升高，目前部分配焦煤种价格仍在窄幅调整的过程，部分优质的主干煤种价 格相对坚挺；偏空 2、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, coking coal and coke experienced a technical rebound, and the mid - and downstream sectors replenished their stocks after the price decline. On the demand side, the crude steel output will continue to decline, the real estate investment data is poor, and the downstream maintains low procurement, with insufficient overall replenishment willingness. In terms of profit, coking coal gives up some profit to coke, but there is little room for a significant improvement in coke profit. For price trends, the coking coal futures contract 2605 should focus on the support at 1060, and the coke futures contract 2605 price should focus on the support at 1680 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - **Macro Aspect**: Among 11 sample steel mills in Jiangsu, 6 clearly stated they would implement scrap steel winter storage plans, accounting for about 55%. In 2025, most steel mills planning for winter storage and their planned storage volumes are lower than in 2024, with only 2 mills having the same plan as last year. The China Iron and Steel Association's official said self - discipline and spontaneous production control are important for high - quality industry development [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space as the job market weakens and inflation is under control [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current pig iron output is 226.55 (-2.65) tons, and the coke inventory is moderately weak. The steel mill inventory has increased this period, and attention should be paid to the steel mill's replenishment rhythm. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract 2605 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of December 19, the coke futures contract open interest is 36,900 lots, a decrease of 9,739 lots compared to the previous period; the 5 - 1 contract monthly spread is 142.5, a decrease of 10.5 points compared to the previous period; the registered coke warehouse receipt volume is 2,070 lots, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the futures main contract screw - coke ratio is 1.95, a decrease of 0.12 points compared to the previous period [11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 18, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port is 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. As of December 19, the coke basis is - 73.5 yuan, a decrease of 162.0 points compared to the previous period [25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Mine and Wash Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.6%, a 1.3% increase compared to the previous period. The daily average raw coal output is 1.927 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous period. The raw coal inventory is 4.789 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average clean coal output is 758,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the previous period, and the clean coal inventory is 2.728 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons compared to the previous period. The utilization rate of 314 independent coal wash plant samples is 37.7%, a 0.5% decrease compared to the previous period; the daily clean coal output is 273,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 3.273 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous period [29]. - **Coking Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 70.50%, a decrease of 1.42%; the daily average coke output is 493,400 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - class coke in Shanxi is 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - class coke is - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - class coke is 66 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Mill**: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to last week and 28,600 tons compared to last year. As of December 19, 2025, the steel mill's coke inventory is 633,730 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons, and the available days of coke are 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [37]. - **Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 8.5712 million tons, a decrease of 93,800 tons compared to the previous period and a 1.33% increase compared to the same period last year. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises is 51,900 tons, an increase of 1,790 tons. The coke inventory of 18 ports is 2.3945 million tons, a decrease of 91,500 tons; among them, the coke inventory of 5 northern ports is 914,000 tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons, the 10 eastern ports is 1.1415 million tons, a decrease of 500 tons, and the 3 southern ports is 339,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41][46]. - **Export**: From January to October, the cumulative coke export is 622,000 tons, a 13.90% decrease compared to the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume reaches 108 million tons, a 6.7% increase compared to the same period last year [50]. - **Housing Data**: In October 2025, the housing sales price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities shows a 0.70% month - on - month decline in second - hand residential properties. From January to October 2025, the cumulative new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, a 19.80% year - on - year decrease [53].

上游焦煤：供应方面，国内煤矿产量小幅收缩，整体供应仍处于相对低位， 但受进口煤炭通关量维持高位影响，焦煤总供应边际递增。近期市场虽有少量补 库行为，但下游采购整体仍显谨慎，煤矿库存持续累积，对价格形成压制。焦炭 第二轮提降落地，后续需关注下游补库与投机需求的释放情况。 主要逻辑，供应方面焦炭港口库存偏高位运行，独立焦企库存延续累积，钢 厂焦炭库存已至中位水平；需求方面，钢厂开工季节性下滑，叠加利润持续承压， 焦炭供需略显宽松。不过焦化厂和钢厂冬储补库需求已逐步显现，叠加宏观氛围 回暖，美联储降息、中央经济会议深入整治"内卷式"竞争，着力稳定房地产市 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期震荡偏强运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 【行情分析】 焦炭产量：截止 12 月 12 日独立焦企全样本：产能利用率为 73.16%，日均 产量 63.98 万吨；全国 247 家钢厂样本：焦炭日均产量 46.61 ，产能利用率 85.95% 。 焦炭库存，钢厂焦炭库存累增 10 万吨至 635.28 万吨，同时独立焦企焦炭库 存也增加 10.88 万吨至 87.32 万吨，创近 5 个月高位，港口库存 181. ...

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 临汾出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 吕梁出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 日照港准一平仓 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/16 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-28） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：原料端价格下跌，焦企利润进一步修复，生产较为积极。但终端需求仍旧疲软，焦钢企业均 有不同程度限产，对原料煤需求有所下降，影响下游观望情绪浓厚，对原料补库积极性不高，多谨慎按 需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 1、基本面：产地端煤矿复产节奏不及预期，加之近日仍有新停产煤矿，复产时间不明，短期内炼焦煤 供应仍稍显紧张。近期钢材价格震荡偏弱，钢厂利润收缩，压力向上游传导，原料价格上涨压力较大， 炼焦煤市场情绪明显走弱，市场成交逐渐冷清，线上流拍率攀升，成交价继续下挫；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差244；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-27） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿端维持正常生产，因事故停产煤矿近日已复产，产量逐步恢复，炼焦煤供应紧张的局 面有所缓解。下游焦企采购炼焦煤态度偏谨慎，贸易商减少市场参与，煤矿出货压力显现，新成交不佳。 线上竞拍成交延续小幅下跌，市场心态有所转弱，矿方继续小幅下调焦煤报价；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差230.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游焦钢按需采购，钢厂亏损较大， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-19） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：下游成材价格震荡运行，钢厂利润不佳减产预期增加，下游企业对高价煤资源的接受意原较 差，且焦钢企业经过近期补库，增库及降库意愿较低，以按需采购为主，对焦煤的采购偏谨慎，预计短 期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：近期煤矿开工小幅回升，但恢复空间有限，供应仍然偏紧。近日市场情绪有所降温，下游 拉运积极性稍有降低，对高价煤种接受程度下滑，矿点出货速度较前期放缓。近两日竞拍流拍情况增多， 主流大矿地销价格暂未调整，但是线上竞拍多数煤种成交出现小幅回调。因多数煤矿暂有前期订单拉运， 且考虑到下游补库，挺价意愿较强；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1380，基差221；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coke Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price Information - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1591.62, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 109.23, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.71% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1845.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year increase of 1.93% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1770.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.29% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1810.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1280.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 17.42% [2] Group 3: Production and Utilization Rate - The blast furnace operating rate is 87.81%, with a weekly decrease of 0.80, a monthly decrease of 2.74, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.67% [2] - The daily average pig iron output is 236.88, with a weekly increase of 2.66, a monthly decrease of 4.07, and a year - on - year increase of 0.40% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 71.84%, with a weekly decrease of 0.90, a monthly decrease of 3.11, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.39% [2] - The daily average coke output is 53.12, with a weekly decrease of 0.02, a monthly increase of 1.84, and a year - on - year increase of 4.61% [2] Group 4: Inventory Information - The coking plant inventory is 36.15, with a weekly decrease of 0.35, a monthly decrease of 1.44, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37% [2] - The port inventory is 198.80, with a weekly decrease of 3.31, a monthly increase of 3.65, and a year - on - year increase of 15.45% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 622.40, with a weekly decrease of 4.24, a monthly decrease of 17.04, and a year - on - year increase of 7.49% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 11.06, with a weekly decrease of 0.01, a monthly decrease of 0.13, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [2] Group 5: Futures Market Information - The latest price of futures contract 05 is 1822.5, with a daily decrease of 12.00, a weekly decrease of 73.00, a monthly increase of 41.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49% [2] - The latest price of futures contract 09 is 1907.5, with a daily decrease of 12.00, a weekly decrease of 68.00, a monthly increase of 43.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [2] - The latest price of futures contract 01 is 1686, with a daily decrease of 5.00, a weekly decrease of 78.50, a monthly increase of 50.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.18% [2] - The 05 basis is 82.47, with a daily increase of 12.00, a weekly increase of 73.00, a monthly increase of 92.58, and a year - on - year decrease of 50.36 [2] - The 09 basis is - 2.53, with a daily increase of 12.00, a weekly increase of 68.00, a monthly increase of 90.58, and a year - on - year decrease of 98.36 [2] - The 01 basis is 218.97, with a daily increase of 5.00, a weekly increase of 78.50, a monthly increase of 83.08, and a year - on - year increase of 14.64 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 136.50, with a daily increase of 7.00, a weekly decrease of 5.50, a monthly increase of 9.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 65.00 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is - 85.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 5.00, a monthly decrease of 2.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 48.00 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 221.50, with a daily decrease of 7.00, a weekly increase of 10.50, a monthly decrease of 7.50, and a year - on - year increase of 113.00 [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-22） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：焦钢企业目前存在不同程度限产，亏损边缘的焦钢企业博弈加剧，市场情绪略有降温，但考 虑焦企近期出货较好，开工较稳下采购积极性仍存，短期刚需采购仍能给予焦煤底部支撑，预计短期焦 煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：部分煤矿因查超产有停、减产情况，同时产地安全检查影响，焦煤市场供应持续趋紧，对 焦煤价格有较强支撑。目前下游焦企对部分高价资源较为抵触，采购偏谨慎，部分煤种成交价格有所回 落，而在下游刚需采购下，部分优质煤种成交价格继续上涨，竞拍市场涨跌互现，整体煤矿报价多呈现 稳中上涨运行；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1300，基差123；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立 ...