August 8, 2025 04:01 AM GMT US Equity Strategy August 8, 2025 Strategy Data Pack – August 2025 Key Points: M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Michael Wilson Chief US Equity Strategist & CIO of Morgan Stanley M.Wilson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2532 Andrew Pauker Equity Strategist Andrew.Pauker@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1328 Michelle M. Weaver, CFA US Thematic Strategist Michelle.M.Weaver@morganstanley.com +1 212 296- 5254 Diane Ding, Ph.D. Quantitative Strategist Qian.Ding@morganstanley.com +1 2 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PCCW reported a revenue increase of 7% to over US$2.4 billion and EBITDA growth of 6% to US$771 million [3] - HKT achieved a 4% revenue growth and a 3% increase in EBITDA, with adjusted fund flow also rising by 3% [3][12] - The overall EBITDA margin for HKT remained stable at 37% [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The OTT regional service recorded a 10% revenue growth and a 51% improvement in EBITDA [3][13] - View TV's revenue retreated in the first half due to event timing, but margins remained stable, with expectations for a rebound in the second half [3][4] - The talent management business saw increased international exposure for artists, contributing to overall business performance [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The OTT business experienced a 27% growth in subscription and advertising revenue, despite softer syndication and event revenue in the Middle East [13] - Digital membership for View TV grew by over 4% to reach 3,300,000, reflecting a younger audience segment [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - PCCW is focused on leveraging digital infrastructure and AI to enhance customer service and drive digital transformation for enterprises [3] - The company aims to maintain its market leadership in the OTT space by optimizing content offerings and expanding partnerships [4][5] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging macro environment but emphasized a commitment to delivering high-quality services and achieving profitable growth [2] - There are strong expectations for content performance in the second half, particularly with popular shows and concerts scheduled [3][8] Other Important Information - An interim dividend of HKD9.77 per share was declared, reflecting a prudent dividend policy aimed at sustainable growth [4] - HKT's gross debt decreased to US$5.57 billion, indicating successful deleveraging efforts [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for View TV's performance in the second half? - Management expects View TV's performance to rebound in the second half due to a lineup of popular shows and concerts scheduled [3][4] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges in advertising revenue? - The company is expanding monetization opportunities through AVOD tiers and optimizing content offerings to attract advertisers [6][14] Question: What is the outlook for HKT's digital transformation solutions? - HKT is experiencing strong demand for its digital transformation solutions, which is driving revenue growth [11]

AI Race & Adoption - The US AI action plan aims to compete with China, focusing on both innovation and adoption of AI [1] - Winning the AI race depends on which countries can best utilize AI for economic benefit [2] - The US has an advantage in AI adoption, but the race is still open [3] - AI adoption requires focus on talent, infrastructure, data, and governance frameworks [5][6] US AI Exportation - The US aims to be a net exporter of AI technology, including hardware and software [7] - AI adoption relies on cutting-edge cloud services and software, much of which originates in the US [9] Copyright & Training Data - Access to training data is crucial for the US to stay ahead in the AI race [11][12] - The US government acknowledges the importance of training data for AI development [11] EU Competitiveness - The EU has significant potential to benefit from AI if it focuses on adoption [13] - Addressing digital sovereignty barriers and streamlining regulations are important for the EU to effectively adopt and use AI [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Freshworks Inc. (NASDAQ: FRSH) has experienced a significant decline of 72% from its all-time high (ATH) in 2021, with a year-to-date return of negative 7.6% [1] Company Performance - The stock's poor performance may lead many investors to dismiss it, but a focus on fundamentals is essential for a comprehensive analysis [1] Investment Strategy - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying strong businesses at reasonable prices for long-term investment, with a particular interest in technology companies and a global investment perspective [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the thematic and sustainability investment landscape in Asia, particularly in China and Japan, highlighting investor interests and regulatory changes impacting these markets [1][2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Interest in Thematic and Sustainability Topics**: There is a strong interest among investors in China and Japan regarding thematic and sustainability investments, with discussions held with over 15 investors in Shanghai and Tokyo [1][7]. 2. **Impact of AMAC Guidance**: The new guidance from the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) mandates shareholders with over 5% ownership to actively exercise their voting rights, which is seen as a long-term positive for corporate governance in China [7][8]. 3. **Governance Trends in Asia**: The governance theme is gaining traction in China, with lessons from Japan and Korea suggesting that increased global investor engagement could lead to higher valuations [7][9][17]. 4. **US-China Tensions and Sustainability**: Investors are keenly interested in the implications of US-China tensions, particularly regarding carbon markets and regulatory changes in Europe that may affect sustainability investments [7][8]. 5. **Sustainability and Thematic Investing Overlap**: The convergence of sustainability and thematic investing is significant, with a focus on diverse Asia-centric themes, including AI, energy transition, and health care [24][29]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Corporate Governance in China**: The AMAC's guidance outlines 13 matters where voting rights should be actively exercised, which includes issues related to shareholder rights, director elections, and environmental responsibilities [11][12][13]. 2. **Reform Momentum in Korea**: There is a noted reform momentum in Korea, with political commitment to governance reform, which is expected to be an inflection point for the market [23]. 3. **US Tariffs and Clean Tech**: The impact of US tariffs on sustainability and clean technology is under scrutiny, with potential implications for the pace of the US energy transition due to reliance on China for critical minerals [29][35]. 4. **EU Regulations and CBAM**: The incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to start in 2026, which will drive interest in carbon capture technologies, particularly in the cement industry [39][42]. 5. **Defense Sector Exclusions**: There is a trend of easing defense sector exclusions among sustainability funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies in response to changing geopolitical dynamics [39][40]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape in thematic and sustainability investments in Asia, particularly focusing on China and Japan.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Infratil (IFT.NZ) [1][4][15] Core Insights - The FY25 results were softer than expected, with Proportionate EBITDAF declining by 4% compared to Goldman Sachs estimates, leading to a downgrade in FY26 guidance to NZ$1,000-1,050 million, which is 3%-5% lower than previous estimates [1][4] - Infratil plans to monetize NZ$1 billion of assets that are unlikely to scale under the current ownership model, with the capital reinvested in businesses that can provide more meaningful returns [2] - The healthcare portfolio is performing strongly, with RHCNZ and Qscan expecting accelerating EBITDAF growth into FY26 [2] - Longroad Energy is targeting an OpCo run-rate EBITDA of US$370 million by March 2026, driven by contributions from projects that are operational or under construction [2] Financial Performance - FY26-28 EBITDAF estimates have been revised down by 3% to 4% due to CDC deferrals and increased costs for One NZ [4][13] - The 12-month target price is set at NZ$10.70, reflecting a 3% decrease from previous estimates [4][14] - Key financial metrics include projected revenue growth of 22.7% for FY25, with a decline in EPS for FY26 expected at NZ$0.13, compared to a previous estimate of NZ$0.09 [10][11] Investment Thesis - Infratil is positioned to benefit from increased digital consumption and AI adoption, particularly through its investments in digital infrastructure and renewable energy [15] - Despite positive long-term themes, the current market valuation appears to have already factored in these growth prospects, leading to a Neutral rating [15]

Core Insights - Western Digital's stock has increased by over 5% in a single trading day and nearly 40% over the past month, driven by positive developments in the company's financial performance and strategic initiatives [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Program - Western Digital announced a $2 billion share buyback program, reflecting strong confidence in its long-term prospects and reinforcing its shareholder-oriented capital allocation strategy [2] Group 2: Q3 Earnings Performance - In Q3 FY25, Western Digital reported $2.3 billion in revenue, a 31% year-over-year growth despite a 5% quarterly decrease. Non-GAAP EPS rose by 15% to $1.36, with gross margin increasing to 40.1% [3] - The Cloud division generated $2.0 billion, accounting for 87% of total revenue, and experienced a 38% year-over-year growth, driven by increased data demands from hyperscale cloud providers and AI adoption [3] Group 3: Positive Guidance - For the fiscal fourth quarter ending June 27, 2025, Western Digital provided a positive revenue forecast of $2.45 billion ± $150 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.45 ± $0.20, both exceeding analyst expectations [4] - The company expects to maintain gross margins between 40.0% and 41.0%, with non-GAAP operating expenses managed between $330 million and $340 million, positioning itself favorably to benefit from the growing demand for high-capacity storage due to AI adoption [4] Group 4: Stock Volatility - Over the past four years, Western Digital's stock has shown significant volatility compared to the S&P 500, with annual returns of 18% in 2021, -52% in 2022, 66% in 2023, and 14% in 2024 [5] Group 5: Valuation Insights - Current assessment places Western Digital's stock value around $49 per share, aligning closely with its market value, indicating a balanced valuation perspective [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported signings growth of 48% in constant currency, totaling over $18 billion [6] - Adjusted pretax income increased by $317 million to $482 million, with adjusted free cash flow rising by 53% to $446 million [6][27] - The fourth quarter revenue reached $3.8 billion, reflecting a 1.3% year-over-year increase in constant currency [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Kindrel Consult's revenue grew by 45% in the fourth quarter and 50% in signings for fiscal year 2025, accounting for 22% of total signings [23][15] - Hyperscaler-related revenue more than doubled to $1.2 billion for the year, significantly exceeding the target of $1 billion [25][7] - The company achieved $900 million in annualized savings from its accounts initiative, surpassing its target for the year [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured 55 contracts valued over $50 million in fiscal year 2025, with nearly half exceeding $100 million [10] - The signings growth was broad-based across various geographies and vertical markets, indicating strong demand for services [9] - The revenue book-to-bill ratio remained above one, suggesting future revenue growth from committed contracts [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging its capabilities, partnerships, and innovation to drive sustainable growth [5] - The 3A initiatives have transitioned from turnaround drivers to pillars of profitable growth [7] - The company aims to address secular IT trends such as cloud migration, hybrid IT environments, and cybersecurity risks [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties, citing the essential nature of its services [20][19] - The outlook for fiscal year 2026 includes expectations for substantial earnings and cash flow growth, with a target of at least $725 million in adjusted pretax income [18][33] - Management highlighted the importance of continued investment in innovation and capabilities to maintain growth momentum [45] Other Important Information - The company plans to balance capital allocation between organic growth investments and share repurchase programs [73] - The fiscal year 2026 outlook anticipates a 1% revenue growth in constant currency, with hyperscaler-related revenue expected to reach $1.8 billion [32][33] - The company maintains a strong liquidity position with nearly $5 billion available at quarter-end [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Accomplishments in 2025 and positioning for 2026 - Management reflected on the successful execution of their strategy and expressed confidence in their ability to control their own destiny moving forward [42][45] Question: Progress with focus accounts - Management indicated they are approximately 75% through their focus accounts, having achieved 90% of targeted savings [50][48] Question: Book-to-bill ratio maintenance - Management confirmed expectations to maintain a book-to-bill ratio above one, driven by strong performance in consult and hyperscaler-related services [55] Question: Revenue growth guidance - Management explained that while signings growth was strong, they are not relying solely on revenue growth to achieve profit improvement, emphasizing the importance of backlog [66][69] Question: Impact of macro uncertainties on strategic accounts - Management noted that their services are essential for productivity, which tends to be a tailwind during uncertain macro conditions [81][84] Question: Role of Kindle Bridge in macro conditions - Management affirmed that Kindle Bridge can help uncover unused resources and provide leverage in uncertain macro conditions [86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Kyndryl reported a 48% increase in signings in constant currency, totaling over $18 billion for fiscal year 2025 [6] - Adjusted pretax income rose by $317 million to $482 million, with adjusted free cash flow increasing by 53% to $446 million [6][27] - The fourth quarter revenue reached $3.8 billion, reflecting a 1.3% year-over-year increase in constant currency [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Kyndryl Consult's revenue grew by more than 25% for the year, with consult signings increasing by 50% in constant currency [7][14] - Hyperscaler-related revenue more than doubled to $1.2 billion for the year, significantly exceeding the target of nearly $1 billion [26] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter was 18.4%, up 370 basis points year-over-year [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured 55 contracts valued at over $50 million in fiscal year 2025, an increase from 40 contracts in the prior year [10] - Nearly half of these contracts were valued over $100 million, indicating strong demand across various geographies and verticals [10] - The revenue book-to-bill ratio remained above one, indicating future revenue growth from committed contracts [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Kyndryl's strategy focuses on building capabilities, partnerships, and innovation to drive sustainable growth, particularly in mission-critical technology services [5] - The company aims to leverage its expanded capabilities and strong customer relationships to win higher value opportunities [12] - The 3A initiatives have shifted from turnaround drivers to pillars of profitable growth, with expectations for substantial earnings and cash flow growth in fiscal year 2026 [8][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties, emphasizing the essential nature of its technology services [20][21] - The outlook for fiscal year 2026 includes expectations for approximately $550 million in adjusted free cash flow and at least $725 million in adjusted pretax income [19][34] - Management highlighted the importance of continued investment in innovation and capabilities to maintain growth momentum [46] Other Important Information - Kyndryl's cash balance was $1.8 billion, with nearly $5 billion in liquidity at quarter end [31] - The company has a target to keep net leverage below one times adjusted EBITDA, ending the quarter at 0.6 times [32] - The fiscal year 2026 outlook assumes a 1% revenue growth in constant currency, with hyperscaler-related revenue expected to reach $1.8 billion [33][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Accomplishments in 2025 and positioning for 2026 - Management reflected on the successful execution of their strategy and expressed confidence in their ability to control their own destiny through continued investment in innovation [44][46] Question: Progress with focus accounts - Management indicated they are approximately 75% through their focus accounts, having achieved 90% of targeted savings, with a revised target of $1 billion in annualized benefits [50][52] Question: Book to bill ratio and backlog duration - Management confirmed expectations to maintain a book to bill ratio above one, driven by strong performance in consult and hyperscaler-related services [58] Question: Revenue growth guidance - Management explained that while signings growth was strong, they are not relying solely on revenue growth to achieve profit improvement, as a significant portion of revenue is already contracted [70][72] Question: Impact of macro uncertainties on strategic accounts - Management noted that uncertainty tends to be a tailwind for their business, as clients seek to optimize their infrastructure in response to macro conditions [82][84] Question: Role of Kyndryl Bridge in uncertain conditions - Management affirmed that Kyndryl Bridge can help uncover unused resources and provide actionable insights, aiding clients in optimizing their operations [88][90]

Core Insights - Cisco and ServiceNow have announced a deepened partnership aimed at enabling secure and confident AI adoption for businesses at scale, combining Cisco's infrastructure and security platforms with ServiceNow's AI-driven solutions [2][6] - The integration of Cisco's AI Defense capabilities with ServiceNow's SecOps will provide a more comprehensive approach to AI risk management and governance, addressing the complexities and risks associated with AI applications [4][5] Partnership Details - The partnership builds on seven years of collaboration between Cisco and ServiceNow, responding to increasing customer demand for joint solutions that simplify technology and enhance operational workflows [8] - Initial field trials for the integration are set to begin soon, with mutual customers expected to benefit from this integration in the second half of 2025 [7] Market Context - A recent survey indicated that security practitioners spend an average of 36% of their budget with a single vendor, reflecting a desire to reduce complexity in tools and suppliers [3] - The rapid growth of enterprise AI presents both opportunities and challenges, necessitating changes in infrastructure, security frameworks, and governance requirements [3] Solution Features - The integration will provide customers with capabilities such as visibility into AI workloads, automated vulnerability assessments, real-time protection for AI applications, and enhanced incident response [13] - Customers will be able to map Cisco AI Defense controls to relevant standards in ServiceNow's Integrated Risk Management platform, facilitating compliance measurement [13]