February 20, 2026 07:55 PM GMT U.S. Economics | North America Conventional wisdom suggests the US economy did not slow in 2025. Headline GDP data seem to confirm this view, with growth in 2025 about unchanged from 2024. However, we believe exceptionally high volatility in trade and inventory data clouded readings on headline GDP growth in 2025. Final sales to domestic purchasers – GDP less trade and inventories – slowed from 3.0% in 2024 to 1.9% in 2025, led by softer household and government spending. That ...

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court's decision to invalidate the Trump administration's tariffs represents a significant legal change rather than a shift in policy according to Wells Fargo [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Commentary on GDP trends indicates ongoing economic fluctuations that may impact investment strategies [1] - Insights into AI spending suggest a growing trend in technology investments, which could present new opportunities for investors [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Analysis of Federal Reserve policy highlights potential implications for interest rates and market liquidity, affecting overall investment climate [1] Group 3: Investment Holdings - Berkshire Hathaway's holdings are under review, with potential implications for market movements and investment strategies [1]

When billionaire Ken Griffin pours billions into a stock, investors pay attention. Griffin’s Citadel added approximately $2.52 billion worth of Amazon (AMZN) stock, taking its position to more than $3.2 billion, per its latest 13F filing. The hedge fund also doubled its stake in AI bellwether Nvidia (NVDA), cementing a position that’s worth nearly $4 billion. The massive bets clearly point to Griffin wanting more exposure to the relentless AI arms race. Amazon stock has wobbled of late, on the back of ...

Economic Overview - The UK unemployment rate has risen to 5.2%, the highest level in nearly five years, indicating a potential upward trend in joblessness [14] - Average weekly earnings growth has decreased to 4.2%, down from 4.6% in November, which is below market expectations [14] - The jobs market is showing signs of distress, with private sector wages not keeping pace with inflation for the first time in two and a half years [1][2] Labor Market Insights - The single month jobless rate is currently at 5.4%, with expectations that it could climb higher as redundancies are anticipated [2] - The number of payrolled employees fell by 11,000 month-to-month in January, following a drop of 6,000 in December, which was better than the consensus forecast of a 20,000 decline [15] - Youth unemployment has reached a new high of 16.1%, highlighting ongoing challenges in the labor market [3] Company Performance - Antofagasta reported a 53% increase in pre-tax profits, with earnings per share more than doubling, driven by higher copper prices and disciplined cost control [3] - The final dividend declared by Antofagasta was 48 cents, lower than the consensus estimate of 56.5 cents, while revenue of $8.6 billion was in line with forecasts [4] - InterContinental Hotels announced a 10% increase in its dividend and a $950 million share buyback following a year of record hotel openings [9] Market Reactions - The FTSE 100 opened higher, gaining 39 points, with companies previously affected by the 'AI scare trade' leading the way [7] - Miners, including Antofagasta and Fresnillo, were among the main fallers as copper and precious metals prices declined [8] - The pound has weakened by 0.5% against the dollar, influenced by rising unemployment and softer wage growth, which have increased the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut [12]

Economic Data Insights - The January employment report on Wednesday at 8:30am will analyze nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings to assess labor market conditions and their impact on Fed policy [1][3] - The mid-week timing of the employment report creates unique dynamics, compressing the time for market adjustments before Friday's CPI release [3] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - December retail sales data on Tuesday at 8:30am will provide insights into holiday shopping performance and consumer spending trends as 2026 begins [2][4] - The report will help determine if strong labor markets are translating into sustained consumer spending or if households are retrenching due to inflation pressures [4] Technology Sector Analysis - Earnings from Cisco (CSCO) on Wednesday and Arista Networks (ANET) on Thursday will provide insights into enterprise networking demand and data center investment amid questions about AI spending sustainability [5] - Cisco's results will focus on corporate IT budgets and cybersecurity product adoption, while Arista's earnings will assess trends in hyperscaler capital expenditures [5] Digital Platforms and Financial Technology - Earnings from Robinhood (HOOD) on Tuesday will provide insights into retail trading activity and cryptocurrency transaction volumes [6] - Results from Shopify (SHOP) and AppLovin (APP) will test the health of e-commerce platforms and mobile gaming advertising, respectively [7] Inflation and Market Reactions - The January CPI report on Friday at 8:30am will be critical for assessing inflation trends, particularly in energy prices, housing costs, and services inflation [8] - The timing of the CPI report following the employment data could lead to significant market volatility, especially in rate-sensitive sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - Big Tech companies have experienced a significant decline in market capitalization, losing over $1 trillion due to concerns over AI spending and capital expenditures [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet all saw their shares decline in the week leading up to Thursday's market close, driven by fears surrounding AI spending [1]. - Amazon's shares fell by 7% in premarket trading on Friday, while Alphabet decreased by 0.7%, and Meta remained largely unchanged; Oracle, Nvidia, and Microsoft saw slight increases in the low single-digit percentages [2]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Plans - Big Tech companies announced plans to invest $660 billion into AI this year, a figure that exceeds the GDP of several countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Israel [2]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment and Volatility - Companies developing hardware for AI are expected to face ongoing volatility as market sentiment shifts, with concerns about capital expenditures related to large language model (LLM) build-outs and the potential for over-expansion of capacity [3]. - Investment director Paul Markham highlighted that questions regarding the extent of capital expenditures and the eventual return on investment will persist in the industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q4 earnings report is set to conclude a tech earnings season focused on the effectiveness of the industry's significant investments in AI [1] Group 1 - The tech industry is currently experiencing a spending surge on artificial intelligence, raising questions about the long-term value of these investments [1]

US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -1,000 to 209,000, showing a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of 205,000. However, continuing claims fell -38,000 to a 6-month low of 1.827 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 1.850 million.WTI crude oil (CLH26) prices jumped more than +3% to a 4.25-month high on Thursday to lift energy producers after President Trump on Wednesday said that he wants Iran to come to the table and negotiate a nuclear deal that is “a fair and eq ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced volatility due to President Trump's tariff threats against eight European countries, leading to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's worst performance since October [1] - Following Trump's announcement of a framework for a future deal regarding Greenland, both indices rebounded, but ended the holiday-shortened week down 0.4% and 0.1% respectively [1] Earnings Reports - Procter & Gamble reported mixed results, beating earnings expectations but missing revenue targets, attributed to the impact of the government shutdown [1] - Capital One also delivered mixed results, beating sales expectations but missing on earnings due to higher expenses; the company remains optimistic about long-term growth following recent acquisitions [1] Investment Actions - The company bought shares of Alphabet after a dip, which ended the week down 0.6% [1] - Profits were taken on Dover as it reached an all-time high, realizing a 13% gain on shares bought in May 2024 [1] - Qnity Electronics was trimmed after a significant year-to-date increase of 17.7%, reflecting a cautious approach despite positive outlooks [1]

Market Overview - Market indexes experienced a reversal, initially up 1-2% but later down 1-2% due to reconsideration of positive economic metrics and labor market data [1][2] - The Dow dropped 2400 points, S&P 500 down 310 points, Nasdaq down 1325 points, and small-cap Russell down 145 points since November 12 [2] Earnings Reports - The Gap (GAP) reported its seventh consecutive quarter of revenue growth with earnings of 62 cents per share, beating consensus by 4 cents, and revenues of $3.9 billion meeting expectations; comps increased by 5% despite Athleta's -11% year-over-year growth [3] - Ross Stores (ROST) exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.58 per share, surpassing the consensus of $1.40, and revenues of $5.6 billion exceeding the forecast of $5.4 billion; next-quarter earnings guidance was raised [4] - Intuit (INTU) reported earnings of $3.34 per share, above the $3.10 consensus, with revenues of $3.89 billion beating the expected $3.76 billion; next-quarter revenue guidance was raised, but earnings guidance for fiscal Q2 was lowered [5]