I aim to provide alpha-generating investment ideas. I am an independent investor managing my family's portfolio, primarily via a Self Managed Super Fund. You can expect my articles to deliver a clearly structured, evidence-based thesis.I have a generalist approach as I explore, analyze and invest in any sector so long there is perceived alpha potential vs the S&P500. The typical holding period ranges between a few quarters to multiple years.A bit about how I approach research and coverage of a stock:I build ...

I aim to provide alpha-generating investment ideas. I am an independent investor managing my family's portfolio, primarily via a Self Managed Super Fund. You can expect my articles to deliver a clearly structured, evidence-based thesis.I have a generalist approach as I explore, analyze and invest in any sector so long there is perceived alpha potential vs the S&P500. The typical holding period ranges between a few quarters to multiple years.A bit about how I approach research and coverage of a stock:I build ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on a generalist approach across various sectors with potential for outperforming the S&P 500 [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves managing a family portfolio primarily through a Self Managed Super Fund, with a typical holding period ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1] - Comprehensive spreadsheets are maintained to track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and performance indicators [1] Research Methodology - The research methodology includes monitoring industry news, company filings, and peer valuations, with a focus on understanding the five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capex and investments, and interest rates [1] - In cases of significant leadership changes, a deep dive into the new CEO's background and past performance is conducted to assess potential impacts on the company [1] Valuation Approach - The article notes a preference for assessing historical performance and broad outlooks over long-term DCF projections, with reverse DCF analysis used for companies trading at high multiples [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on a generalist approach across various sectors with a performance evaluation against the S&P 500 [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company manages a family portfolio primarily through a Self Managed Super Fund, aiming for alpha-generating investment ideas [1] - The typical holding period for investments ranges from a few quarters to multiple years, indicating a long-term investment strategy [1] Group 2: Research Methodology - The company builds and maintains comprehensive spreadsheets that include historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] - The research approach includes monitoring industry news, reports, and other analysts' coverage, particularly during significant events like CEO changes [1] - The company prefers not to build DCF models for long-term projections, focusing instead on assessing past performance and the outlook on five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capex and investments, and interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on a generalist approach across various sectors with a performance evaluation against the S&P 500 [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company manages a family portfolio primarily through a Self Managed Super Fund, aiming for alpha-generating investment ideas [1] - The typical holding period for investments ranges from a few quarters to multiple years, indicating a long-term investment strategy [1] Group 2: Research Methodology - The company builds and maintains comprehensive spreadsheets that include historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] - The research approach includes monitoring industry news, reports, and other analysts' coverage, particularly during significant events like CEO changes [1] - The company prefers not to build DCF models for long-term projections, focusing instead on assessing past performance and the outlook on five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capex and investments, and interest rates [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for CMOC is "Buy" with a target price of HK$20.60, indicating an expected total return of 22.0% including a dividend yield of 2.3% [6][8]. Core Insights - CMOC's net profit in 3Q25 exceeded market expectations, driven by a lower effective tax rate, realized cobalt sales, and strong minor metals prices [2]. - The company anticipates sustainable copper output growth due to technology upgrades, with a guidance of 0.8-1.0 million tonnes (mnt) for 2028E and the KFM phase 2 project expected to operate in 1H27E with an average output of 100,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) [3]. - Copper production costs have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to increased output and cost control measures [4]. - Cobalt output is expected to remain stable despite potential adjustments in production methods, with a total cobalt quota of over 30,000 tonnes allocated for TFM and KFM projects in 2026E [5]. Financial Performance - CMOC's market capitalization is approximately HK$368.41 billion (US$47.40 billion) [6]. - The net financial expenses have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to the repayment of long-term debt [5]. - The DCF valuation methodology used yields a fair-value target price of HK$20.60, based on an 11% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [8].

Summary of Tencent Holdings Ltd. 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings Ltd. - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Date of Call**: November 13, 2025 Key Financial Results - **Revenue**: - 3Q25 revenue increased by 15% year-over-year (YoY) to Rmb 192.87 billion, beating consensus estimates by 2% [6] - **Net Profit**: - Non-IFRS net profit rose by 18% YoY to Rmb 70.55 billion, slightly exceeding consensus by 4.9% [6] - **Gross Profit**: - Gross profit increased by 22% YoY to Rmb 108.80 billion, with a gross margin of 56.4%, up 1.3 percentage points YoY [6] - **Operating Profit**: - Operating profit reached Rmb 63.55 billion, a 19.2% increase YoY [6] Segment Performance - **Value-Added Services (VAS)**: - Online games revenue grew by 23% YoY, driven mainly by international games [6] - **Advertising**: - Online advertising revenue increased by 21% YoY, beating estimates by 1% [6] - **FinTech and Business Services**: - Revenue from this segment grew by 10% YoY, in line with expectations [6] Capital Expenditure and Buybacks - **Capex**: - Capital expenditures were Rmb 13 billion in 3Q25, down from Rmb 19.1 billion in 2Q25 [6] - **Share Buybacks**: - The company repurchased shares worth HK$21.1 billion in 3Q25, with a full-year buyback target of over HK$80 billion [6] Market Position and Valuation - **Market Capitalization**: - Current market cap stands at approximately US$782.97 billion [4] - **Price Target**: - The price target is set at HK$700, indicating a potential upside of 7% from the current price of HK$656 [4] Analyst Ratings - **Stock Rating**: - The stock is rated as "Overweight" by Morgan Stanley, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [4] Risks and Opportunities - **Opportunities**: - Successful execution of new game launches, market share gains in social and short video ads, and resilience in social network competition [9] - **Risks**: - Regulatory uncertainties in the gaming industry, intensified competition in social networks, and tightened regulations amid US-China tensions [9] Conclusion - **Overall Assessment**: - The earnings call indicates a strong performance by Tencent in 3Q25, with significant revenue growth and profitability, despite a cautious outlook on capital expenditures and potential regulatory challenges. The company's strategic focus on gaming and advertising positions it well for future growth, while ongoing risks need to be monitored closely.

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on a generalist approach across various sectors with potential alpha compared to the S&P 500 [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves managing a family portfolio primarily through a Self Managed Super Fund, with a typical holding period ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1] - The approach includes building comprehensive spreadsheets that track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] Research Methodology - The research methodology involves monitoring industry news, company filings, and other analysts' coverage, particularly during significant events like CEO changes [1] - The focus is on assessing company performance through five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates, rather than projecting long-term financials [1]

Core Insights - The focus is on generating alpha through independent investment management, primarily using a Self Managed Super Fund [1] - The investment strategy is generalist, targeting sectors with perceived alpha potential compared to the S&P 500 [1] - The typical investment holding period ranges from a few quarters to multiple years [1] Research Approach - Comprehensive spreadsheets are maintained to track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] - Monitoring includes industry news, reports, and other analysts' coverage, especially during significant events like CEO changes [1] - The emphasis is on assessing company performance and outlook based on five key drivers of DCF valuation rather than projecting long-term financials [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on a generalist approach across various sectors with potential alpha compared to the S&P 500 [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves managing a family portfolio primarily through a Self Managed Super Fund, with a typical holding period ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1] - The analyst builds comprehensive spreadsheets that track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] Research Methodology - The research methodology includes monitoring industry news, company filings, and other analysts' coverage, with a particular focus on leadership changes and their impact on company performance [1] - The analyst prefers not to use discounted cash flow (DCF) models for long-term projections, instead focusing on assessing a company's historical performance and key drivers of valuation [1] Key Drivers of Valuation - The five key drivers of DCF valuation highlighted are revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates, which influence the opportunity cost of capital [1]