16 February 2026 | 6:36PM EST Economics Research Global Views: More Noise Than (Macro) News 1. Despite elevated geopolitical risk and sharp sector rotations in the equity market, our optimistic baseline outlook for 2026 remains largely unchanged. We expect global growth to outperform consensus expectations, helped by fading tariff effects, fiscal support, and easier financial conditions. Nevertheless, we see inflation falling further toward target in most economies, reflecting not only reduced effects from ...

Given the rise of online investing and commission-free trading, institutional money is no longer the only big player in the market. Retail investors have become a force to be reckoned with. Many investors of all kinds now monitor sentiment among the retail crowd, which often trades much differently than institutions. Retail investors tend to invest on a longer-term basis and are more likely to buy the dip during a big sell-off. According to The Motley Fool's 2026 Investor Outlook and Predictions Report, ...

The Sahm rule is a measure of labor market deterioration, and it has historically been an accurate recession indicator.The labor market is one of the strongest indicators of overall economic health. When companies are hiring and workers feel secure in their jobs, they both tend to spend more and drive up demand for goods and services. When businesses dial back on hiring plans or lay people off, consumers tend to spend cautiously.Today, the U.S. labor market is at a bit of a middle ground. The unemployment r ...

There is rarely a clear-cut start and end date to a recession. By the time people realize they are in a recession, it's usually been going on for several months. That's because much of the economic data that investors and consumers rely on is released with a lag. There are often revisions to this data, which can indicate that the economy might have been performing much better or worse than everyone initially believed. While the U.S. does not currently appear to be in a recession, recent data suggests tha ...

Key TakeawaysUS hiring has plummeted to 3.3%, a level comparable to the 2020 crisis and signaling a potential recession as labor’s share of GDP hits a record low of 53.8%.The Trump administration is considering direct military action against Iran’s Supreme Leader, while simultaneously weighing a proposal to allow "symbolic" nuclear enrichment to prevent a full-scale war.A new 10% tariff will be imposed on Washington’s partners who previously struck deals with the Trump administration, alongside fresh trade ...

Commodities - Oil prices reached year-to-date highs of US$67.01, driven by geopolitical tensions following US President Trump's warning to Iran regarding nuclear negotiations [1] Currency and Labor Market - The USD index extended its recent gains, marking a fourth consecutive day of increases with a 0.1% rise [2] - US weekly jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were reported at 206,000, down from a revised 229,000, indicating labor market resilience [2] - The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3% [2] Economic Data and Forecasts - The upcoming US Q4 GDP first estimate is expected to show a growth rate of 3.0%, a deceleration from Q3's 4.4% but still considered healthy [4] - The GDP deflator is projected to decrease to 2.9% from 3.7% [4] - The PCE price index is anticipated to remain unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year, with a modest increase in month-on-month figures [5] Federal Reserve Implications - An upside surprise in PCE data could support the Fed's current stance and strengthen the USD, while softer inflation could have the opposite effect [6]

Economic Concerns - Concerns about a potential recession have resurfaced due to higher interest rates, elevated living costs, and ongoing economic uncertainty [2] - While the U.S. economy shows resilience in employment, many households remain cautious about spending due to higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation [2] Financial Preparedness - Preparing finances for economic uncertainty is advisable, with a focus on practical, controllable steps rather than emotional reactions to headlines [3] - Financial planners recommend maintaining an emergency fund covering three to six months of essential expenses to mitigate risks during economic slowdowns [6][9] Budgeting Strategies - Creating a budget is essential for clarity on monthly expenditures, especially with elevated credit card interest rates [4] - The goal of budgeting is awareness, allowing individuals to gain control over their finances [5] Emergency Fund Importance - Strengthening an emergency fund is crucial, with recommendations to start small if the full goal feels overwhelming [6] - Additional income from freelance or gig work can help accelerate savings and provide flexibility [7] Market Behavior - Market volatility tends to increase during economic uncertainty, but historically, stock markets recover before economic data improves [8][9]

Core Insights - Affordability concerns are impacting middle-class budgets, with a projected 30% chance of a recession in 2026 due to factors like tariffs and restrictive immigration, which may lead to inflation and weak consumer spending [1] Group 1: Budget Analysis - A mock-up budget for a dual-income middle-class household in the U.S. with one child shows a total monthly income of $7,000 and expenses that match this income exactly, leaving no buffer [2][3] - The original budget includes categories such as housing ($2,300), transportation ($1,050), and child expenses ($1,400), among others, totaling $7,000 in expenses [3] Group 2: Stress-Tested Budget - A stress-tested version of the budget reflects a 20% drop in income to $5,600, necessitating a corresponding reduction in expenses to match this new income level [4][5] - Key changes in the stress-tested budget include a reduction in transportation costs to $700 and food expenses to $550, while housing and healthcare costs remain fixed [5] - The revised budget demonstrates that discretionary spending must be frozen, and savings contributions paused to align expenses with the reduced income [6]

Market Sentiment - 38.5% of investors feel optimistic about the market in the next six months, while 38.1% are concerned about a potential downturn this year [1] Market Predictions - The timing of the next market downturn is uncertain, but downturns are a natural part of the market cycle, suggesting that investors should prepare for them [2] Investment Strategy - Staying invested during market fluctuations is crucial, as pulling out can lead to significant losses if the market rebounds [5][7] - Historical examples show that selling during downturns can result in selling at a loss and having to reinvest at higher prices later [6][7] - The best way to protect investments during volatility is to remain invested, regardless of market conditions [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of a recession on various sectors and companies, highlighting the importance of monitoring economic indicators [1][2] - It emphasizes the need for investors to stay informed about market trends and economic forecasts to make informed decisions [1][2] - The piece suggests that certain industries may be more resilient during economic downturns, providing potential investment opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - The author, Neils Christensen, has extensive experience in financial reporting and has been active in the sector since 2007, indicating a strong background in economic analysis [3] - The article aims to provide insights into the financial landscape, particularly in relation to commodity markets and investment strategies [3]