August 1, 2025 04:37 PM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America It's the unemployment rate The Fed said slower employment growth need not signal weakness so long as labor supply slows by a similar amount, keeping the unemployment rate low. Powell said the unemployment rate is a better gauge of maximum employment than payrolls or growth in economic activity. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael T Gapen Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0571 Sam D Coffin Economist Sam.Coffin@mor ...

August 1, 2025 09:55 PM GMT US Economics | North America Are large downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls associated with higher recession probability? The July employment report brought downward revisions to May and June employment of 258k, the largest downward revision since 1979 outside of COVID. That said, empirical analysis indicates revisions have only marginal signal about recession risk. The change in current-month employment matters more. Key Takeaways | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael T Gapen Chi ...

Market Outlook & Economic Concerns - The market is potentially in a range, facing slower growth and higher inflation, but supported by steady retail demand and buybacks, with daily equity market demand around $7-8 billion [2] - A stagflationary tilt is present, advising caution on expecting a significantly higher market [2][6][15] - Expects a slowdown in the market, influenced by an effective tariff rate of 14%, equating to a $400 billion tax [3] - Recession risk remains, with a 1 in 3 chance [7] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs are creating stickier inflation, posing a risk of structural changes in business and consumer behavior [5][6] - The textbook economics view of tariffs as a one-time shift is not holding true, as the impact is stretched out over a longer period [4][5] Sector & Investment Strategies - Aerospace and defense sectors are expected to perform well, alongside consumer staples, utilities, and real estate [8] - International markets could outperform [8] - European defense sector is attractive, considering currency factors and front-loaded fiscal spending related to NATO [11][12] Bond Market & Fiscal Policy - Term premium is expected to remain elevated due to fiscal debt and Treasury funding needs [7][13] - A $5 trillion gap is projected to emerge beginning in 2026 when considering the rest of the decade [14] Gold as a Hedge - Gold is considered a good hedge against recession and stagflation risks [15] - Hypothetical scenarios suggest gold prices could reach $6,000 with increased gold holdings, with a more conservative target of $4,000 next year [16]

Performance Overview - Volta Finance's net performance for April 2025 was negative at -2.4%, bringing the performance from August 2024 to date to +7.1% [4] - The volatility in investments, particularly in CLO Debt and CLO Equity, was noted post-liberation day, affecting the valuation of underlying assets [4] Market Conditions - April 2025 was characterized by high market volatility due to macroeconomic and geopolitical events, including aggressive tariff policies announced by President Trump [5] - The U.S. stock indices experienced sharp declines, although there was a partial recovery by the end of the month following a 90-day tariff pause for non-retaliating countries [6] - The U.S. jobs report showed resilience with 177,000 jobs added, while GDP contracted by -0.3% in Q1 2025, leading to increased recession risks [6] CLO Market Activity - The European High Yield index widened by approximately 40 basis points, while Euro Loans lost 1 point, closing at 97.80px [7] - CLO BB tranches reported total returns of -1.5%, with the U.S. High Yield returning -1.07% and Euro High Yield at -1% during the same period [7] - The default rate in the U.S. stood at approximately 4.3%, while Europe maintained a low default rate of 0.3% [8] Portfolio Management - The company increased cash holdings to approximately 16% of NAV by the end of April through active management, receiving €7.5 million from called CLO Equities [9] - Cash flow generation remained stable at €28.5 million over the last six months, representing close to 22% of April's NAV on an annualized basis [10] - As of the end of April 2025, Volta's NAV was €262.9 million, equating to €7.19 per share [12] Investment Performance - CLO Equity tranches returned -3.6%, while CLO Debt tranches returned -0.9%, indicating a consistent performance relative to the overall product returns [11] - The dollar's volatility negatively impacted the fund's performance by -0.64%, prompting a reduction in USD exposure to approximately 12% [12]

20 May 2025 | 3:52PM EDT Global Market Views: Smaller Tails Widen Some Paths, Narrow Others 1. Some paths widen, some narrow. Equity markets have relaxed over the past month following a succession of positive trade-related developments between the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and the recent tariff reduction with respect to China. Tariff rates are now lower, but not low, and the same can be said about recession risks in the US. The lowering of trade tensions means that even if hard data 'catch down' to ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious stance on the market, with a focus on the potential for near-term relief but acknowledges the risks associated with economic deterioration and labor market conditions [4][5][35]. Core Insights - The reduction in tariffs between China and the US has led to an upgrade in the US growth forecast for 2025 and a decrease in recession odds from 45% to 35% [2][3]. - Markets have already incorporated the new growth outlook, which may leave them vulnerable to a recessionary outcome if economic conditions worsen significantly [3][8]. - The report emphasizes that while the market's ability to overlook short-term economic weakness has improved, risks remain, particularly related to the labor market and potential upward pressure on bond yields [5][30][31]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The sharp reduction in tariffs has prompted a significant upgrade in growth views, with markets reflecting this change [6][21]. - The report suggests that the market has fully unwound the growth damage priced after previous tariff announcements, indicating a potential overpricing relative to baseline growth expectations [8][12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the market may be more willing to look through periods of economic weakness if investors believe the worst of the tariff and uncertainty shocks are behind them [24][25]. - It notes that a stabilization in soft data could further support this outlook, making it easier for the market to judge that hard data damage will be limited [25][28]. Risks and Challenges - The report identifies the labor market as a critical factor, with rising unemployment posing a significant risk to market confidence [29][30]. - It warns that renewed upward pressure on bond yields and potential re-escalation of tariff policies could challenge market recovery [31][32][33]. - The report concludes that while there is room for market relief, the potential for deeper economic downturns remains a concern, suggesting the need for protective strategies against downside risks [35].

PennantPark Investment (PNNT) Q2 2025 Earnings Call May 13, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company Participants Arthur Penn - Chairman & CEORichard Allorto - Chief Financial OfficerMaxwell Fritscher - Equity Research AssociateMelissa Wedel - Vice President, U.S. Equities Research Conference Call Participants None - Analyst Operator Good afternoon, and welcome to the PennantPark Investment Corporation's Second Fiscal Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, a ...

6 May 2025 | 6:25AM EDT Global Views: On the Precipice 1. The Trump administration has continued to soften some of its most aggressive tariff policies. Following the 90-day pause of the supplementary "reciprocal" tariffs and the exemption of ICT products from the China tariffs, the White House recently modified the auto parts tariff to prevent stacking with steel/aluminum and to partially reimburse automakers for their increased costs. Preliminary trade agreements with a few countries could follow soon. The ...

2 May 2025 | 10:42AM EDT US Equity Views Mid-season S&P 500 earnings update David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jayachandran@gs.com Gol ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance reported distributable earnings of $33 million or $0.24 per share for Q1 2025, with GAAP net income of $23 million or $0.16 per diluted share, providing 96% coverage of the quarterly dividend [12][16] - The loan portfolio increased to $7.7 billion from $7.1 billion at year-end, with a weighted average yield of 7.9% [13][16] - The debt to equity ratio at quarter-end was 3.5 times, up from 3.2 times at year-end [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company committed to $650 million in new loans during Q1, with a total of $1.5 billion in year-to-date volume including add-on fundings [8][9] - Loan repayments totaled $93 million during the quarter, which were redeployed through new originations [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The real estate market is experiencing significant capital availability despite increased volatility, with a cautious tone emerging due to macroeconomic concerns [5][6] - Construction starts for multifamily and logistics properties are at ten-year lows, indicating limited supply which is expected to support long-term real estate values [6][7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on proactive asset management and maximizing value recovery from its loan portfolio [11] - There is a strategic emphasis on financing data centers and residential properties, which are expected to perform well even in recessionary scenarios [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about a potential broad recession being the greatest risk to the ongoing real estate recovery, but noted that real estate is better positioned than many other asset classes [5][7] - The company anticipates that Q1 results represent a trough, with expectations for distributable earnings to meet or exceed the quarterly dividend rate for the remaining quarters of 2025 [12][13] Other Important Information - The company has a strong pipeline of transactions in both the U.S. and Europe, with continued activity in loan originations [8][9] - The update on 111 West 50 Seventh Street indicated strong sales momentum, generating $35 million in net proceeds from unit closings [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about realizing losses and redeploying capital - Management indicated that specific CECL allowances are tied to two assets, with plans to sell the Liberty Center asset later this year, which should help crystallize losses and allow for capital redeployment [19][20] Question: Market conditions affecting loan repayments and new money deployment - Management noted that the market remains robust, with no anticipated slowdown in transactions despite recent volatility [25][26] Question: Portfolio growth and repayment expectations - Management expects approximately $1.5 billion in repayments this year, with active market participation anticipated [34] Question: Performance of specific assets - Management provided updates on various assets, indicating positive leasing activity and potential for improved risk ratings [40][41][44][46] Question: Exposure in the UK and Europe - Management explained the company's established presence in Europe, highlighting a dedicated team and strong relationships that facilitate successful operations in the region [64][66]