Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highlighted as a critical economic indicator, overshadowing other data releases such as car sales and jobless claims [2] - If the payroll data shows rapid wage growth, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach to inflation management [2][3] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is navigating a mixed economic landscape, with signs of slowdown in some sectors and growth in data center construction [2] Company Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) is noted for its strong long-term performance, delivering an annualized return of nearly 19% over the past 20 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7] - Despite a recent drop in stock price due to lower-than-expected membership growth, Costco's fundamentals remain strong, with increased membership fees and a younger demographic joining [7][8] - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is recognized for its strong position in the natural gas sector, with a focus on providing services to the Gulf Coast, and is considered a buy due to its potential upside despite a recent decline in stock price [9]

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that emerging signs of weakness in the labor market drove his support for cutting interest rates at the most recent central bank meeting. “It made sense to move interest rates down a little bit” and “to take a little bit of the restrictiveness out of there,” to help ensure ongoing health in the job market while still keeping some downward pressure on above-target inflation levels, Williams said during a ...

makes sense of this economy. Like I just mentioned in the intro, you had GDP uh I think surprise a lot of folks out there almost uh rise 4%. You got a labor market uh not uh breaking 100,000 non-farm payroll increases anymore.How do you see things uh as we stand here right now. >> President Trump and Secretary Bess and Brian are certainly not surprised by the very strong year 4% growth in the second quarter, which was the president's first full quarter in office. The key thing about the labor market is we k ...

The Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of August 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.9% and core CPI at 3.1%. The Fed is on record as using PCE data as its primary inflation gauge, with a 2% target rate. Elsewhere, the Fed has str ...

Welcome back. As we continue to monitor uncertainty around tariffs, inflation, the labor market, how's the consumer holding up. Here to discuss is Mastercard Economic Institute's chief economist, Michelle Meyer.Recently releasing a forecast for the holiday season, expecting retail sales to grow by 3.6%. Welcome. It's good to have you.>> Thank you. Good to be here. >> So, how does that compare 3.6%.What does it say about where we are in consumer spending. >> It's pretty a solid growth rate. Um, and actually ...

Consumer Spending Outlook - The Mastercard Economic Institute forecasts a 3.6% growth in retail sales for the holiday season, which is consistent with spending trends observed over the summer months [1][2] - Last year's holiday spending growth was 4.1%, driven by high volumes and disinflation in many categories, while this year presents more pricing challenges for consumers [3][5] E-commerce vs. In-store Spending - E-commerce retail spending is expected to grow by 7.9%, significantly outpacing the just over 2% growth for in-store shopping, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping [6][7] Consumer Demographics and Spending Power - Spending is increasingly driven by high-end consumers, supported by wealth gains in markets and real estate, which have created a positive wealth effect for upper-income households [8][9] - The overall household balance sheets are in good shape, with serious delinquency rates trending slightly lower, suggesting consumers are well-equipped to manage spending this season [12] Labor Market Dynamics - Job creation has slowed, but the labor market remains balanced with low firing rates, contributing to a steady unemployment rate [14] - The impact of technological advancements, particularly AI, on the job market is a topic of debate, with potential structural changes expected rather than cyclical dynamics [15][16]

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said Monday that the labor market shows signs of weakening while noting that monetary policy is still restraining inflation after a quarter-point cut this month in the federal funds rate. The current 4%-to-4.25% range in the central bank’s benchmark interest rate “continues to be what we call restrictive mo ...

Again, we're back to this discussion where talking about labor market weakness and sort of consumer confidence weakness and a market where desks are talking about blowoff tops going into That's right. I mean, I think as market participants, we're counting on the fact that the Fed is going to deliver enough accommodation and quickly enough in order to cushion this process of adjustment that's taking place right now. You know, if they do not only stick with 25 basis points, but do another couple, that's 75 ba ...

Last week's economic data presented a sharp contradiction between a resilient U.S. economy and increasingly concerned American households. The S&P 500 fell for most of last week but recovered some of those losses following Friday's inflation report. A final estimate showed the U.S. economy posted a stronger than expected rebound in the second quarter, primarily driven by an increase in consumer spending. However, despite this strength, consumer sentiment dropped to a four-month low as households grew more c ...

[Music] Good morning from Yahoo Finance's New York City headquarters studios. I'm Yao Finance executive editor Brian Sazi. You are watching Norwegian Cruise Line sailing into the New York Stock Exchange to ring the opening bell.Arc Best getting things underway over at the NASDAQ. Now, the rosecolored glasses remain on for investors to start the week, but maybe they shouldn't be when taking a look at the potential minefields out there over the next 5 days of trading. Government shutdown could happen on Octob ...