Market Trends & Dynamics - Markets are trying to recover after President Trump's comments on potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, causing market unease [3] - The market is closely watching the drama between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with concerns that firing Powell would create a "mess" in both equity and bond markets [27][28] - Fed independence is seen as critical, with major banking names emphasizing its importance [29] - AI demand remains strong, with no signs of a slowdown, benefiting companies like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor [15][16][17] Company Performance & Earnings - Lucid Group's stock surged over 25% after securing a $300 million investment from Uber for a robo-taxi program [7] - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) now projects full-year sales growth of 30% year-over-year, up from a previous estimate in the mid-20% range, indicating strong tech demand [13][14] - PepsiCo reported better-than-feared earnings with a 9-cent earnings beat and a $400 million quarterly sales beat, maintaining its 2025 sales and profits outlooks [12] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The market is pricing in 50/50 odds for a Fed rate cut in September, down from over 70% a few months ago, showing a rapidly changing outlook [34] - The Federal Reserve's independence is considered a "crown jewel" of the federal system, crucial for preserving currency strength and managing inflation and unemployment [51] - The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%, with the most recent numbers showing a 27% increase in the last month [48] Potential Risks & Concerns - Rising Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield approaching 46%, could weigh on equities [6] - Tariffs could impact the economy, with the full effects potentially hitting in the fall or even 2026 [33] - A potential third term for President Trump is viewed as less impactful on markets than interference with Fed independence [66][70]

Well, I think let's back up and talk about principles. As you think about across time, the the the Fed was set up to be independent and have a dual mandate, unemployment, price stability, i.e. inflation. And their job is to manage you add their management economy through short-term interest rate adjustments to accomplish that outcome.And I think a stable central bank is a is really very important and very important in the United States because of this size economy with 30 trillion dollars plus of debt out t ...

President Trump says it's highly unlikely he will fire Fed Chairman Pal. But if the president in fact did want to remove Pal from his position, uh what would the process uh look like. Joining us with more on that, Jonathan Caner, former assistant attorney general in the Biden administration.He's also a CNBC uh contributor and our senior economics reporter uh Steve Leeman. I I would uh Jonathan I would say well he said he's not going to do it but um about a month or two ago there was some conjecture and he s ...

Why don't we start off with yesterday. Uh, you know, there was reports from a White House source that the president was very close to firing J. Pal.The president then spoke during a news conference saying that's highly unlikely. Um, just that drama and we saw the action in the bond market, the equity market and with the dollar. Does that drama change the view of US markets right now.Look, it it it matters. Um, but uh I'm not sure the thing that matters most. um when you're looking at what's really driving m ...

President Trump. Um, enough about me. Now you talk about him.Confirming he has no plans to fire Fed chair J. Pal, downplaying earlier reports that suggested otherwise. Joining us now with the latest on this story and what firing pal could mean for the markets, Nick Timosro, Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent.Earlier, Nick, we Fed whisperer. Fed he is. He's uh he's got if you read it from him, you you probably can trust u what he's saying.But my point earlier was, have you ever heard anyone ar ...

Anything left unsaid, anything that we need to give extra emphasis to. Do you think when it comes to President Trump's criticism of Chair Powell and how this still sits in the market, I was wondering whether we get any clues from what happens at the short end of the U.S. Treasury curve as to how much Fed independence there is, I suppose how much the two moves on criticism from the White House. I think that's a great way to look at it in terms of like we did see the tear come lower but didn't completely coll ...

>> THE FAKE NEWS IS SAYING, IF YOU FIRED HIM, IT WOULD BE SO BAD. SO WE HAVE A STUPID PERSON. I KNOW THREE OR FOUR PEOPLE, WHO YOU ALL ARE GOING TO PICK.I WOULD LOVE HIM TO RESIGN IF HE WANTED TO. HE'S DONE A LOUSY JOB. JEROME POWELL HAS BEEN BAD FOR OUR COUNTRY.WE SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST INTEREST RATE ON EARTH AND WE DON'T. HE REFUSES TO DO IT. YET, HE IS SPENDING TWO POINT $5 BILLION REBUILDING THE FED. HE IS A TERRIBLE FED CHAIR.I'M SURPRISED HE WAS APPOINTED. WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON DOING ANYTHING. WE ARE ...

camera and joining us today for a big story, the big story for the markets today. Let's get more reaction on the fed with Jefferies chief market strategist and CNBC contributor David Zervos. David, it's great to have you on. You know, it's interesting because you're on CNBC.Earlier today, as we were getting reports that Trump was drafting this letter and planning to potentially do this. And then right after that hearing from the president himself that it's unlikely. And, you know, I sort of leave that with ...

I mean speaking of rates, you've been for last year or so at least higher for longer camp and Fed for the better part of the year has been on hold. So that's been right. What do you think happens next. Well, you know, the trajectory here, you know, you're asking what happens next.You're talking about in 2025. You think we'll get a few cuts. I I think there's I think there's a reasonable chance we get a cut or two.Um but not certain. And you know I think the market is absorbing the trade policy but on the ca ...

Market & Economic Outlook - The market is closely watching CPI data [1] - The market believes it can tolerate tariffs of 10-12%, potentially 30% on China, resulting in an average of 15% tariffs [5] - The market anticipates that the positives from AI revolution, Trump deregulation, and tax cut extensions will offset the impact of tariffs [6] - A 30% across-the-board tariff is considered quite damaging [6] Trade & Tariffs - The absence of reciprocal tariffs seen earlier in April is a key factor [4] - The market does not anticipate the implementation of 30% tariffs [4] - Trump's flexibility, as demonstrated by the Nvidia news, suggests potential extensions for tariffs [5] Fiscal Policy & Tax Cuts - The extension of tax cuts and 100% expensing are viewed favorably [9] - The current fiscal situation is largely in line with expectations from Trump's campaign promises [10] - Failure to revert to Obama-era tax levels contributes to a $3 trillion 10-year deficit [11] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The drama at the Fed is unprecedented [6] - There is a view that the Fed should cut rates [11] - Fed independence is considered extremely important [12] - Dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is minimal [13][14] Technological Innovation - AI is seen as a solution for firms facing higher prices due to tariffs [7] - AI is still on the march [7] - Nvidia news is spurring the NASDAQ to new all-time highs [8]