Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,046.64 tons of gold as of November 12, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.28 tons from the previous trading day. The price of spot gold has surged, breaking the $4,200 per ounce mark, driven by a weak dollar and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 12, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings stand at 1,046.64 tons, marking an increase of 0.28 tons from the prior day [7]. - The gold ETF holdings have increased for two consecutive trading days [7]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On November 12, spot gold prices reached a high of $4,211.59 per ounce before closing at $4,195.46, reflecting a gain of $68.84 or 1.67% [7]. - Gold prices experienced a brief sell-off, dropping below $4,100 per ounce, but quickly rebounded, establishing $4,100 as a support level for the week [8]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a weak dollar and heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside concerns over the economic impact of the U.S. government shutdown, which may have reduced GDP growth by 1.5% to 2.0% [7][8]. - Market sentiment is influenced by disappointing employment and consumer confidence data, which have contributed to the bullish trend in gold as a non-yielding asset [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The upward trend in gold prices remains intact, with the path of least resistance pointing upwards. Any pullbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities [8]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,250 and $4,300, while short-term support is at $4,161 and $4,100 [9].

In global trade, the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 0.4% led by Infineon, up 2.6%, after forecasting higher chip sales driven by surging AI data center demand. The FTSE 100 edged 0.2% higher in London. Asian markets were mixed. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.1% for a third session, boosted by tech stocks. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.4%, while SoftBank slipped 3.5%. Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 0.6% after Foxconn beat profit forecasts. China’s Shanghai Composite dipped 0.1%. U.S. Treasury yields eased as bond trading resumed ...

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Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a decline in the early Asian session, influenced by positive economic indicators that decreased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Economic Indicators - The ADP employment data released on Wednesday exceeded expectations, indicating stronger job growth [1] - The ISM services-sector index also showed positive results, contributing to the reduced odds of a Fed rate cut [1]

Valuation Concerns - The sell-off in the market is attributed to extreme valuations, particularly noting Palantir's 250 times forward earnings as a significant concern [1][2] - The combination of valuation issues, government shutdown, and inflation are contributing factors to the current market sentiment [1] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is described as a significant event, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a GDP impact of 0.1% to 0.2% for each week it continues [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the shutdown is affecting economic data interpretation, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [4] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - Layoffs at major companies like IBM, UPS, and Amazon raise concerns about consumer sentiment and economic health, with McDonald's earnings being a key indicator for middle and lower-income consumers [5][6] - The upcoming unemployment numbers are critical for understanding the labor market, but their delay adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's data-driven approach [6] Stock Analysis: UPS - UPS is highlighted as a stock to watch, with analysts maintaining an overweight consensus and a price target above its current trading level [8] - Despite recent layoffs and a strong earnings report, UPS is seen as a candidate for mean reversion, with a target buy range identified between 90 to 92 [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's communication is increasingly chaotic, with mixed signals from various members regarding interest rate cuts, particularly for December [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fed Members' Opinions - Three Fed members opposed an October rate cut and expressed skepticism about a December reduction, citing strong economic momentum and inflation above target [2]. - Fed Governor Waller and Governor Myron advocate for further cuts, with Waller emphasizing the need for action despite uncertainty in the economic outlook [3][6]. - A significant number of Fed members are scheduled to speak this week, indicating ongoing discussions about monetary policy [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming ADP jobs data is anticipated to be crucial for determining the Fed's direction on rate cuts, with many observers believing definitive job data is needed to unify the committee [5][9]. - Current jobless claims are low, suggesting a potential turnaround in the job market, which could influence the Fed's decision-making [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Fed is reassessing the appropriate level of reserves and plans to halt quantitative tightening, potentially increasing liquidity in the markets [6][7]. - There is a focus on the repo market and its implications for overall market tightness, although the Fed has downplayed its significance [5][7].

Group 1 - Chicago's October PMI reading is 43.8%, better than the expected 42.5% and the highest since July 2023, although it remains in contraction territory for the 23rd consecutive month [1][2] - The previous month's final PMI reading was 40.6%, indicating a sequential improvement [2] - The last month of expansion was November 2023, when the PMI was above 50 [2] Group 2 - Current yields on 10-year bonds are down two basis points for the day but up eight basis points for the week, while two-year bonds are up 11 basis points for the week [3] - Yields on these maturities are higher than before the September 25 basis point cut, suggesting market reactions may not align with Fed rate cuts [3]

Market Overview - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 1.6%, now standing at $3.89 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $171 billion, indicating a slight increase despite overall declines in major assets [1][8]. Crypto Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by 1.5% to $112,859, while Ethereum (ETH) has decreased by 3.0% to $3,991. Other notable declines include BNB down 2.1% to $1,111 and Dogecoin (DOGE) down 3.1% to $0.1939. XRP (XRP) is the only major asset showing a gain, up 0.5% to $2.64 [3][8]. - Among the top 100 tokens, Diverge Loop (DIVER) has surged by 88.5%, while Vutlsig (VUT) has dropped significantly by 31.9%. Enso, Arcblock, and ChainOpera AI are trending in market discussions [4]. ETF Developments - Bitwise Asset Management's newly launched spot Solana ETF has attracted $69.5 million in inflows on its first trading day, nearly six times the debut of its closest competitor, the Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF, which had $12 million [4][5]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut, reducing the benchmark range to 3.75%–4%. This is expected to influence liquidity in financial markets, with traders looking for indications of future monetary policy adjustments [6][8]. - Bitget CEO Gracy Chen noted that the market sentiment is precarious, balancing between optimism and caution, as a dovish Fed could benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies, while a hawkish stance might lead to a market pullback [7]. Additional Insights - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 39, indicating a state of fear in the market [8]. - The inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $202.48 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw even stronger inflows at $246.02 million [8]. - Trump Media's Truth Social has partnered with Crypto.com to introduce prediction markets, indicating a growing intersection between traditional media and cryptocurrency [8].

🇺🇸 JUST IN: Markets price in a 99.5% chance of a Fed rate cut to 3.75–4.00% at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, CME FedWatch data shows. https://t.co/zic2RZvXNm ...

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