Core Insights - Bitcoin is facing a critical week as three delayed US economic reports are set to be released, which could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and influence crypto markets [1] - The convergence of these economic indicators is significant due to the current lack of up-to-date consumer spending and inflation metrics [4] Economic Reports Overview - The US economic reports include September retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for November 25, followed by initial jobless claims data on November 26 [3] - The previous retail sales report indicated a strong 0.6% monthly gain, while the PPI fell by 0.1% in August, with a year-over-year core PPI of 2.8% [4] Retail Sales Expectations - The consensus for September retail sales predicts a 0.3% month-over-month increase, with any miss below this mark potentially signaling economic cooling and fostering dovish sentiment among Federal Reserve policymakers [5] - Weaker consumer spending is often associated with rising speculation about rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar and support crypto prices [5] PPI Data Significance - The PPI release is crucial as it is the last significant inflation data before the October Personal Consumption Expenditures report [6] - Markets currently price in a 67.3% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which may shift based on new data [7] Inflation Impact on Market Expectations - A higher-than-expected PPI, especially in core measures excluding food and energy, could reduce December cut odds below 60%, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on crypto [8] - September's consensus calls for a 0.3% monthly PPI increase, with any number significantly above this challenging the view of moderating price pressures [9]

Market Overview - Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will close early on Friday at 1 pm ET, leading to a shortened trading week with lower volumes expected [6] - Major indexes remain under pressure, with the S&P 500 declining 2% last week and 3.5% for November, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.7% last week and is down 6.1% month-to-date [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Investor expectations for a December rate cut have surged, with futures markets now assigning nearly a 70% probability for a quarter-point cut at the December 10 Fed meeting, up from about 44% a week earlier [6] - Goldman Sachs Research supports the case for a December cut, anticipating the Fed's proactive approach to managing potential economic risks and forecasting two additional rate cuts in 2026 amid a cooling labor market [4][6] Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled its October consumer price index (CPI) report and postponed November's CPI release until after the Fed's December meeting, adding to market uncertainty [5][6] - Investor sentiment remains cautious, particularly regarding high valuations in AI-linked stocks that have driven much of the year's market gains, with a noted desire for certainty in the current noisy market environment [5][7] Nvidia and AI Chip Sales - Reports indicate that the US government may allow Nvidia Corp. to resume sales of its advanced AI chips to China after a prior suspension due to export controls, although the review is still ongoing [6]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 experienced significant volatility last week, influenced by various factors including the decline in Bitcoin prices and strong earnings from Nvidia that did not positively impact its stock price [1] - There was uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts in December, contributing to market fluctuations [1] Company Performance - Nvidia reported exceptional earnings, but the stock did not see a corresponding increase, indicating possible market skepticism or profit-taking behavior among investors [1] Investment Insights - The average annual return for the private investor mentioned is 17.2%, calculated from January 2009 to the end of 2024, suggesting a strong performance in stock picking and market timing [1]

Market Sentiment - Rate cut odds doubling has Bitcoiners calling a bottom [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin traders have become more optimistic following a significant increase in the probability of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which nearly doubled within 24 hours [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Reaction - The odds of a December rate cut surged to 69.40% from 39.10% in just one day, driven by dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams [3][7] - Bitcoin is currently trading around $85,071, reflecting a decline of over 10% in the past week [2] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the shift in monetary policy expectations could stabilize Bitcoin after its recent downturn, with some expressing bullish sentiments about a potential rebound [2][4][5] - Coinbase Institutional argues that futures markets have mispriced the chances of a rate reduction, indicating a potential underestimation of the situation [6] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - Rate cuts typically encourage investment in assets like Bitcoin as yields on traditional instruments decrease, leading to a favorable macro backdrop for cryptocurrencies [5][7] - Some analysts predict a significant rally in the crypto market, while others caution against overreacting to a single dovish speech [5][7]

Core Insights - Nvidia reported strong third-quarter earnings with revenue of $57.01 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.30, both exceeding Wall Street estimates [3] - The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion, surpassing analysts' predictions of $62 billion [3] - Despite Nvidia's success, investor concerns about an AI bubble and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut influenced market volatility [4] Market Reactions - Following Nvidia's earnings report, shares rose nearly 5%, contributing to gains in other major tech stocks known as the "Magnificent Seven" [2][3] - The Nasdaq Composite experienced significant fluctuations, closing at $22,078.05, and was projected to open at a 10-week low before showing signs of recovery [4] - As of Friday morning, some stocks within the "Magnificent Seven" were showing positive early trading results after losing gains earlier in the week [6] Employment Data Impact - The September jobs report revealed 119,000 new positions added, significantly higher than the predicted 50,000, but unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.4% [8]

Group 1 - Real estate stocks, particularly homebuilders, experienced an increase alongside the broader market on Friday [3] - A key Federal Reserve official indicated potential for further monetary easing, which significantly raised the likelihood of a rate cut in December [3] - The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF saw positive movement in response to these developments [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated potential for a rate cut in December, suggesting the central bank may adjust its policy stance due to a softening labor market [9][10][12] - The S&P 500 experienced a significant intraday reversal, dropping 1.6% after an initial rise of 1.4%, now down approximately 5% from October highs [2][6] - Other Federal Reserve officials expressed mixed views on rate cuts, with some showing caution while others, like Williams and Jefferson, appeared more open to the idea [11][13] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin faced a severe sell-off, with $1 billion liquidated in just one hour, marking its worst month since the 2022 crypto collapse [3][4] - Bitcoin's price has dropped over 30% since reaching record highs in early October, currently trading below $85,000 [4][38] - Concerns arise regarding potential forced selling from companies heavily invested in Bitcoin, such as Strategy, which owns over 3% of all Bitcoin [37][38] Group 3: Retail Sector Performance - Retail earnings reports highlighted a focus on "value," with companies like Walmart, Ross, and TJX performing well by catering to diverse income demographics [25][26][28] - Gap Inc. reported better-than-expected results, particularly from its Old Navy and Gap brands, indicating strong consumer response to their marketing strategies [30][32] - The retail sector is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where high-income earners are spending while low-income consumers seek value [28][29] Group 4: Warner Brothers Discovery Bids - Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix have submitted nonbinding bids for Warner Brothers Discovery, with Paramount seeking to acquire the entire company [5][34] - The bidding process is expected to continue with additional rounds, as Warner Brothers evaluates strategic options following interest from multiple suitors [34][35] Group 5: Foxconn and AI Partnership - Foxconn announced a partnership with OpenAI, planning to invest between $1 billion to $5 billion to expand its manufacturing footprint in the U.S. [36] - The collaboration aims to address challenges in establishing AI data centers, with Foxconn being a major player in contract electronics manufacturing [36]

Stock Market News From Nov. 21, 2025: Dow Rises Nearly 500 Points Last Updated: Updated 1 day ago December Rate-Cut Odds Are Back Up to 70%. New York Fed President Sees Room to Cut in 'Near Term.' By Connor Smith CONCLUDED and Nicole Goodkind After plunging earlier this week, December rate-cut odds were back up above 70% on Friday. Traders see a 70.9% chance of Dec. 10 rate cut, which is up from 39.1% on Thursday. Such odds were down to about 30% earlier in the week. New York Federal Reserve President John ...

Bottom ticked this on Against The Odds yesterday and gave the bull case for the December rate cut25 bps 30%-> 60% in a day https://t.co/3LAF0nMLyN ...