My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dualmandated goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum employment.Inflation has come down a great deal, but has been running somewhat above our 2% longer run objective. In support of our goals today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy in ...

Higher inflation data out today, higher than estimated, at least. To what extent does that does that tie into the BOE's thinking. Do we get a more hawkish BOE than maybe, maybe that maybe some had suggested.Yeah. I think that the BOE is likely to be more cautious going forward. Look, we got what.What do they inflation report today show as it showed us that core inflation is bobbing around three and a half. Retail inflation around 4% and services inflation is closer to 5%. None of those numbers are telegraph ...

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer.Other people want to make friends. I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate you.So call me at 1800743 CNNBC or tweet me at Jim Kramer. If you spend much time watching this network, you've heard endless chatter about the Federal Reserve, the business cycle, tariffs and trade, and of course all the ways our trading partners try to get over on us by breaking the rules of the Great Arbor, the World Trade ...

Monetary Policy & Fed's Actions - The Fed's dual mandates of growth and inflation are now equally important, a shift from the past 15 years where growth shocks allowed for asymmetric easing [2] - The Fed funds rate, currently at 4 and 3/8%, has room for a couple of cuts to reach a neutral rate, estimated at inflation plus 100 basis points [2] - The market's reaction to the Fed's actions, particularly at the long end of the curve, is more critical than the Fed's direct control over short-term rates [3][4] - The Fed is likely monitoring fiscal policy to avoid repeating the 2021 scenario where it underestimated fiscal stimulus and delayed tightening [6] - The Fed primarily focuses on core inflation, currently around 25% to 26% based on core PCE, and may overlook temporary oil price spikes due to geopolitics [8][9] - The market and the Fed are currently in agreement regarding the future path of interest rates, as indicated by the alignment between the dots and the forward curve [14] Inflation & Economic Outlook - While inflation has decreased to 25%, it hasn't consistently fallen below 2%, which is necessary for the 5-year average to return to 2% [10] - Rising oil prices could impact the tips market and the intermediate part of the yield curve, but the Fed is likely to look beyond temporary spikes [9][10] - The level above 45% at the long end of the curve is not conducive to positive economic outcomes [4] Market Indicators & Fed's Communication - The "dots" are less relevant now that the Fed funds rate is at 4 and 3/8%, as they were initially designed for forward guidance at the zero lower bound [13] - The forward curve, specifically the SOFR curve, serves as a real-time indicator of market expectations, making the "dots" less impactful [14]

Key Takeaways Australia • Labor Data: Solid employment (35k jobs added) with participation rate flat at 67.1%. This keeps unemployment rate at 4.1%, which remains below RBA's forecast (4.2%) and signals continued labor market tightness. China June 13, 2025 09:36 AM GMT Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview | Asia Pacific M Update Central Banks in Focus; China's Activity Data India • WPI: YoY to moderate from decelerating food prices and declining fuel prices. Sequentially it will inch up. Indonesia • BI: A pause afte ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently positioned to wait for more clarity before making adjustments to monetary policy, with a high bar for cutting rates due to uncertainty and above-target inflation [3][6]. - There are mixed views among FOMC participants regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing that tariff-induced inflation will not be persistent, while others express concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored [3][7]. - The economic implications of tariffs are significant, with potential for both upward pressure on prices and negative effects on employment, particularly in sectors reliant on imported materials [7][8]. Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to push up prices, but the extent of the increase and its impact on growth and employment remains uncertain [7]. - Three channels through which tariffs could have a persistent influence on inflation include increased short-run inflation expectations, opportunistic pricing by firms, and lower productivity leading to upward price pressure [7]. - The FOMC acknowledges that tariffs could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, with potential long-term effects depending on how trade policy evolves [7][8]. Balance of Risks - Current data suggests that the Fed is close to meeting its inflation mandate, with inflation at 2.1 percent in April [8]. - There are greater upside risks to inflation and potential downside risks to employment and output growth in the future [8]. - The balance of risks is closely tied to the evolution of trade policy, with uncertainty remaining about the ultimate levels of tariffs and their economic impact [8]. Inflation and Inflation Expectations - Recent inflation data has been subdued, but expectations are that tariffs will soon reflect in prices [11]. - Estimates indicate that tariffs have raised overall core PCE prices by 0.2% through April, suggesting a quick pass-through of tariffs into prices [11]. - While short-term inflation expectations have risen sharply, longer-term expectations remain stable [11]. Growth and Labor Market Outlook - The labor market is currently near maximum employment, but trade and policy changes could raise the unemployment rate [12]. - There are indications that economic activity may be starting to slow, with expectations of slower growth compared to the previous year [12][14]. - Businesses are preparing for potential workforce reductions if uncertainty persists, indicating a cautious outlook on economic activity [12][14].

Let's turn now to today's market action. Stocks closing near session lows. Only two Dow stocks and one sector energy again closing higher with the broadbased selling.Joining me now is Bob Elliot, CEO and CIO at Unlimited Funds and Krishna Guha, Everore ISI vice chairman. Guys, welcome. Bob, oil moved dramatically today off a pretty low base.Stocks moved modestly. I guess this is more about what are we set up for given the run that stocks have been on. We're pretty near all-time highs on the S&P.Yeah, I thin ...

Oil prices spiking following Israel's strike on Iran, adding an inflationary input ahead of the Fed's meeting next week. Meanwhile, we just got a positive signal from the data. An early read on Michigan consumer sentiment for June coming in well above expectations.Also, inflation expectations fell. Joining us is former Dallas Fed President and CNBC contributor Richard Fiser. So Richard, is is it your view that this is just going to make the Fed even more patient on its stance to do anything because it has t ...

Well, investors shifting their focus back on the Federal Reserve ahead of the central bank's policy meeting next week. President Trump once again calling for Fed Chair Pal to cut rates for more on the path ahead for the Fed and interest rates. Let's get now to Loretta Mester, University of Pennsylvania adjunct professor and former Cleveland Federal Reserve President.Uh Loretta, always good to see you. So, let's start Loretta with that inflation report we got today. PPI tame Loretta benign just like CPI yest ...

继央行公布6月买断式逆回购操作后，本周市场投资情绪升温，债市表现可圈可点。 除了来自资金面的支撑外，供需关系的优化也将在一定程度上利好债市表现。 来自中金公司的研究观点指出，若不考虑年内增发，预计2025年包括政府类债券和政策性银行债在内的 利率债的净增量供给或呈现前高后低分布，一季度是同比多增最明显的季度。从二季度开始，供给压力 可能逐步缓解，到下半年或许会出现同比少增。不仅如此，若央行在二、三季度重启国债购买，那么供 需关系将会出现较大改善，有助于利率回落。 分析人士指出，现阶段随着短端行情的明显起势，长端利率也可能突破窄幅震荡区间，继续下行。对于 各机构而言，目前可考虑再度博弈久期品种带来的超额收益。 买方情绪积极 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至6月11日收盘，银行间利率债市场收益率整体下 行。举例来看，中债国债收益率曲线3M期限回落2BP至1.39%；2年期收益率下行1BP至1.42%；10年期 收益率下探1BP至1.64%。 根据券商调研，当前债市的买方情绪已逼近年内新高，有近半数受访机构看多债市。其中，56%的机构 均持偏多态度，近期央行开展逆回购操作、资金面整体偏松、非银机构配 ...