Group 1 - The total assets of Hong Kong's Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) market increased by 3.8% to HKD 1.39 trillion as of May 31 [1] - After three months of significant net inflows into low-risk assets and outflows from high-risk assets, the fund conversion activity in May became calmer, with a net inflow of approximately HKD 440 million into equity funds and a net outflow of HKD 370 million from fixed income funds [1][2] - The top five asset categories with the highest net outflows in May were "Global Bond Funds," "Mixed Asset Funds (80%-100% Equities)," "Greater China Equity Funds," "Other Equity Funds," and "Mixed Asset Funds (60%-80% Equities)" [1] Group 2 - The top five asset categories with the highest net inflows in May were "Pre-set Investment Strategy - Core Accumulation Fund," "US Equity Funds," "European Equity Funds," "MPF Conservative Funds," and "Hong Kong Equity Funds (Index Tracking)" [2] - Year-to-date, the Hong Kong and European stock markets have outperformed, while the US stock market has lagged behind, with a cautious attitude towards Hong Kong stock funds [2] - As of the end of May, Manulife held the largest market share at 27.4%, followed by HSBC at 18% and Sun Life at 10.9%, with the top five providers accounting for over 73.1% of the MPF market [2]

Group 1 - The current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with Israel's airstrikes on Iranian state television and threats from Iran to launch significant missile attacks, raising concerns about potential conflicts [3] - The market is experiencing increased risk aversion, highlighted by President Trump's early departure from the G7 summit and the convening of a national security meeting [3] - There has been a significant increase in ETF holdings, with a reported addition of 136,000 ounces of gold in the last trading day, bringing the year-to-date net purchases to 6 million ounces, indicating strong investor confidence in gold [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this week, with market focus on Chairman Powell's speech and changes in the dot plot, as expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 rise, putting pressure on the dollar [3] - Gold prices are currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, having failed to maintain the $3,400 level, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4] - The technical analysis suggests that gold is facing support at various moving averages and trend lines, with potential buying opportunities if prices stabilize above key support levels [4]

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are increasing the demand for gold as a safe haven, with ongoing conflicts and military deployments raising market concerns about escalation [3] - The strong US dollar and weak economic data are suppressing gold prices, with the dollar index rising 0.7% to 98.83, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a month, while US retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month, the largest decline in four months [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is creating a cautious market sentiment, with expectations that the Fed will maintain the policy rate between 4.25%-4.50%, despite calls for a rate cut [3] Group 2 - On the daily chart, gold prices rebounded strongly after hitting a low of $3366, closing around $3388, indicating a fierce market battle between bulls and bears [3] - The short-term resistance for gold is at the 3405-3410 range, while key support levels are at $3364 and $3345, which are critical for maintaining bullish momentum [3] - The four-hour chart shows a potential double bottom formation, with the 10-day and 20-day moving averages providing crucial support [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 中东局势紧张，避险需求推升金 价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿，上 游矿端承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 核心逻辑：市场消化中东局势紧张的消息后，昨日纽约金屡次跌破 34 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250618 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：海外聚焦今晚 FOMC，国内债市博弈央行购债 海外方面，美国 5 月零售销售环比录得-0.9%，弱于预期并创下两年最大跌幅，主要汽 车、加油站、杂货和建材类拖累，表明此前关税预期引发的提前消费热潮消退，关注薪资对 消费的支撑力度。以伊战争进入第五天，特朗普敦促伊朗"无条件投降"、警告美国"耐心 将尽"，市场风险偏好遭受打击，美股下挫，美元指数回升至 98.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.37%，金价窄幅波动走平，油价涨超 4%，铜价小幅收跌。GDPNow 最新预测显示，美国 二季度 GDP 环比折年率或达 3.5%，显示经济在关税扰动下仍具韧性，关注今晚 FOMC 会 议的经济预测摘要（SEP）及利率点阵图。 国内方面，A 股震荡收低，两市成交额维持在 1.2 万亿上，红利风格相对抗跌，科创 50、 微盘股、北证 50 跌幅较大，稳定币、能源、海运等板块领涨，在内生修复动能偏弱、短期 宽松政策 ...

不谋万世者不足谋一时；不谋全局者不足谋一域；不谋全局者不足以谋天下。没有前瞻的行情预判和清晰的思 路，跟着行情跑，偶尔的正确不过是运气罢了。而我们步步为赢，思路清晰，执行果断才能连赢不断。 | ৰে | 000 | N | L | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行情 | 图测 | 交易 | 历史 | 设置 | 近期随着市场愈发接受美联储将在2025年继续降息的可能性，美元难以吸引强势买盘。另外以色列对伊朗国家电 视台的袭击引发伊方强烈反应，声称将进行"史上最大规模导弹攻击"。美国总统特朗普已要求国家安全委员会在 白宫战情室做好准备。 黄金近期受中东局势影响，避险情绪拉满，成功回到了3400时代。但多次冲击3450关口，都未能逾越，随后迎来 大幅回落，本周初最低跌至3382附近，日内大阴收尾，跌幅高达70余点。今日如期延续跌势，承压3400关口弱势 下行，美盘加速走低至3366附近得以回升。彬哥今日晚间布局的3395附近空，成功跌至3375目标，完美收割20余 点。 黄金目前走势和彬哥预期吻合,隔夜跌破3409关键点后,果然出现了加速下跌,3400大关 连连失守,恰 ...

【导读】人民网评论"禁止违规吃喝，不是吃喝都违规"刷屏，美股小幅下跌 避险情绪占据主导，标普500指数回吐本月部分涨幅。由于零售、房地产和工业产出的数据低迷，强化 了今年降息的预期（前提是原油上涨只是暂时的，并不会对通胀下行路径造成重大威胁）。 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好啊，一起关注一下海内外的重大市场消息！ 人民网评论刷屏 6月17日晚间，人民网发表评论称，各地纵深推进违规吃喝专项整治，剑指权力寻租、公款滥用等沉 疴，是正风肃纪的必然选择。但在执行链条中，个别地方"层层加码"，把"禁止违规吃喝"简单等同 于"禁止吃喝"。这种行为也是懒政，是形式主义的变种，让商家失了生意，也让民生烟火黯淡。 本该精准的"手术刀"，在一些地方成了"乱挥的大锤"：凡聚餐就审查、凡宴请就干预，"一碗面、大罚 款"，自己掏钱请两三好友聚一聚也不行，普通党员干部吃饭战战兢兢。这些"层层加码"，看似"积极作 为"，实则是懒政思维下对政策的误读、对民生的漠视，用简单粗暴代替精准治理，拿形式主义掩盖能 力短板。餐馆没了客流，消失的不只是烟火，更是服务员工资、养殖户订单、供应链循环……层层加码 的代价，最终压在劳动者肩头。 评论表示，各地执 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly in June, reaching a nearly 14-year high, driven by industrial demand and safe-haven sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - International silver prices rose from approximately $33 per ounce to over $37 per ounce, peaking at $37.24 per ounce on June 17 [1]. - Analysts attribute the price increase to a combination of strong investment demand, widening supply-demand gaps, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - The gold-silver ratio has increased from 80 to 105, indicating a relative undervaluation of silver, which has attracted investment [2]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Factors - Industrial demand for silver has reached a historical high of 59% of total demand, indicating its growing importance over its monetary attributes [3]. - The World Silver Association forecasts a global silver demand of 36,700 tons in 2024, with a supply of only 31,700 tons, resulting in a supply gap of 5,000 tons [3]. - The photovoltaic sector has become a significant growth driver for silver demand, with its consumption increasing from 2,330 tons in 2019 to 6,147 tons in 2024, contributing 78% of the total demand increase [4]. Group 3: Future Price Projections - Multiple institutions predict that silver prices will continue to rise, with estimates suggesting prices could reach $38 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - The anticipated growth in photovoltaic installations is expected to further stimulate silver demand, alongside the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6]. - Despite the positive outlook, some analysts caution that global economic downturn risks could lead to significant price corrections [7].

避险情绪有所环节，但停火谈判陷入僵局，不确定性仍存，黄金何去何从？金十研究员高阳正在直播分 析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

避险情绪持续走弱，黄金回踩上周起涨点！黄金日内反弹渐弱，短线能否追空？立即观看超V推荐官 Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 黄金短线能否追空？ ...