莲华资产合伙人、首席投资官洪灝在1月11日的一场演讲中，对2026年市场作出展望。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下： 1、 一月份继续降息应该是大概率事件 。 如果美国的远期通胀预期无法得到控制，而美联储一意孤行降息，那么 必然导致贵金属继续飙升 ，因为美元的信用 已经失效。 2、2011年至今， 黄金走出非常标准的"杯柄形态" 。从统计学角度考虑，最近几年，一旦任何资产价格走势出现杯柄形态，那么 它们上涨的概率是99%，接近 100%。 杯子有多深，目标就有多高。 黄金目前处于一个相对公允的估值区间，4500左右。 3、很多人说黄金创了历史新高，还高了两块钱。那又怎样？这不会改变你的命运。 其他以黄金定价的东西，才会改变你的命运。 4、 白银实际上走出了一个60年巨型的杯柄形态。杯柄形态太漂亮了，工整得可以当作教科书典范。80美元涨到头了吗？肯定没有到头。 5、 如果黄金不跌，那么其他就会涨 。如果我们以黄金为其他商品定价，我们会看到金银比、金铜比、金油比，各种黄金与有色金属的比值等都仍在历史低位。 如果4500是黄金的公允价格，那么对于其他商品，我们需要发挥一下想象力。 6、......2026年距200 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 洪灝：2026年正是逆命改运时，市场正处在35年大周期顶峰，各种曾被遗忘的资产开始疯涨，会诞生一 个伟大的泡沫 来源：投资作业本Pro 莲华资产合伙人、首席投资官洪灝在1月11日的演讲中，对2026年市场作出展望。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下： 1、一月份继续降息应该是大概率事件。如果美国的远期通胀预期无法得到控制，而美联储一意孤行降 息，那么必然导致贵金属继续飙升，因为美元的信用已经失效。 2、2011年至今，黄金走出非常标准的"杯柄形态"。从统计学角度考虑，最近几年，一旦任何资产价格 走势出现杯柄形态，那么它们上涨的概率是99%，接近100%。 杯子有多深，目标就有多高。黄金目前处于一个相对公允的估值区间，4500左右。 3、很多人说黄金创了历史新高，还高了两块钱。那又怎样？这不会改变你的命运。 其他以黄金定价的东西，才会改变你的命运。 4、白银实际上走出了一个60年巨型的杯柄形态。杯柄形态太漂亮了，工整得可以当作教科书典范。80 美元涨到头了吗？肯定没有到头。 7、．．．．．．（2026年）在流动性如此充沛的条件下，在三把火一 ...

【华通白银网12月29日】•白银在突破长达40年的盘整形态后，正朝着2026年100美元的目标价位迈进。 •金银比的关键支撑位宣告失守，预示着白银相对于黄金的超额表现将持续。 •飙涨的工业需求与美联储重启资产负债表扩张，是推动这一结构性价格重估的核心宏观驱动力。 白银在2025年突破长期阻力位50美元后飙升，标志着市场行为的明显转变。此举反映的是结构性变化，而非投机性飙升。由实物供应收 紧、工业需求加速以及全球流动性周期重新开始所推动。本文将探讨宏观经济力量、技术结构和市场间信号，这些因素将影响白银在 2026年的下一个重大走势。 宏观力量重塑白银供需平衡 中国白银外流与全球供应紧张加剧 供给侧继续恶化，而中国处于这一转变的中心。上海期货交易所仓库的白银库存已降至715吨。这是自2016年7月以来的最低水平。这标 志着从2020年峰值下降了86%。 另一方面，黄金库存出现了类似的情况，从2021年的高点下降了83%，至519吨，为2015年12月以来的最低水平。这些创纪录的低点是对 伦敦大量出口的结果。严重的短缺引发了横贯大陆的挤压，大幅推高了贵金属价格。 仅在10月份，中国就出口了创纪录的660吨黄金，这是 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices reached approximately $4479.42 on December 24, with an intraday high of $4525, and are currently hovering around $4515 [1] - Analysts predict that gold prices may stabilize at a plateau after rapid increases, with forecasts for 2026 ranging from $4900 by Goldman Sachs to $5055 by JPMorgan, with a long-term target of $6000 by 2028 [19] Group 2: Silver Market Developments - Silver prices have reached a new historical high, with Shanghai silver futures rising over 5% to 18131 yuan, marking a nearly 150% increase year-to-date [2] - The National Investment UBS Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund announced a purchase limit of 100 yuan, citing constraints due to trading limits and regulatory requirements [4] - Analysts suggest that silver is breaking a 50-year "cup and handle" pattern, indicating a potential generational bull market driven by increasing industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI [6] Group 3: Economic Policy and Interest Rates - The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 20%, with a total reduction of 625 basis points this year, despite still having the highest real interest rates globally [7][9] - Egypt's inflation rate has significantly decreased from 24% in January to 12.3% in November [8]

Core Insights - Silver has emerged as a focal point in financial markets, experiencing a significant price surge after years of stagnation, driven by strong fundamentals and technical breakthroughs [1][5][16] Fundamental Factors - The primary driver of silver's price increase is the imbalance between demand and supply, with demand growing faster than supply. The global silver market has been in a state of deficit for several years, particularly due to industrial demand from sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, which has outpaced mining output [4][5] - Investors are rediscovering silver as a safe-haven asset amid uncertain global growth prospects and shifting central bank policies. The expectation of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. has reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, further fueling the price increase [4][5] Technical Factors - A significant technical pattern has been identified in silver's long-term chart, resembling a "cup and handle" formation, which typically signals a long-term bullish reversal. The price has recently broken through the handle resistance level, indicating a strong upward trend [6][8] - This breakout is interpreted as a confirmation of a potential multi-year bull market for silver, attracting both institutional and retail investors [8] Market Focus - Upcoming economic data releases from the U.S. and Eurozone are critical for determining whether the silver price rally can be sustained. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, influenced by mixed employment data and soft inflation indicators [9][11] - In the Eurozone, stable inflation around the European Central Bank's target suggests that no abrupt policy changes are likely, which supports a favorable liquidity environment for commodities and risk assets [12][13] Conclusion - The current market dynamics present a "perfect storm" for silver, characterized by supportive fundamentals, accommodating central bank policies, and a strong long-term technical outlook. Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data, as well as Eurozone CPI, to gauge the sustainability of silver's upward momentum [13][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing unprecedented growth, reaching a peak of $3920.77 per ounce on October 6, 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 49%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [1] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - The surge in gold prices began in early 2024 when prices hovered around $2050, increasing over 70% within a year and briefly surpassing $3500 [3] - The direct catalyst for this price increase was the policy instability under the Trump administration, which included the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 3, 2025, causing gold prices to break through $3200 [3] - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, 2025, gold prices quickly rose to $3707, and during the U.S. government shutdown, prices approached $3900 [3] Group 2: Policy Impact and Economic Indicators - Trump's second term has led to three significant impacts on the gold market, including erratic tariff policies that increased market volatility, with gold prices rising 45% in the first nine months of his current term [5] - The pressure exerted by Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates has undermined confidence in dollar assets, with the dollar index falling over 9% by September 2025 [5] - The U.S. federal debt has reached $37.5 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, a stark contrast to the 40% ratio in 1971 when the dollar decoupled from gold [7] Group 3: Global Debt and Technical Analysis - Global government debt has surged to $324 trillion, representing 253% of global GDP, with margin debt increasing by 33% to a historical peak of $1.06 trillion [8] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has entered a strong bullish cycle after breaking through key patterns, with long-term price targets potentially reaching $6988 [8] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Central banks have purchased over 1000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with a significant increase in purchases to 333 tons in Q4 2024 [10] - The supply of physical gold is tightening, leading to increased market anxiety, as evidenced by the widening price gap between COMEX futures and London spot prices [10] - The Bank of England has seen withdrawals of gold valued at $82 billion, indicating a chaotic market environment with low inventory levels [10] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with UBS setting a target of $4200 and Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4000 by mid-2026 [12] - There is a regional disparity in market participation, with Asian investors leading the buying, while European and American institutional allocations remain low [12] - The domestic market shows contrasting trends, with gold ETF sizes nearing 160 billion yuan, while physical gold consumption has declined by 35.7% [12] Group 6: Individual Investment Trends - Individual investment behavior is diverging, with some investors entering through gold ETFs, while others are reducing gold purchases due to high prices [14] - Banks are restricting credit card use for gold investments, and there are legal risks associated with cashing out for gold investments [14] - Speculative sentiment is rising, as indicated by declining gold inventories on the New York Commodity Exchange and increased foot traffic in domestic gold stores [14]

Core Viewpoint - Dogecoin is currently showing a bullish signal with the emergence of a cup-and-handle pattern, indicating an initial price target of $0.30 and a potential long-term increase of 850%, possibly reaching $2 [1][6]. Technical Analysis - Key indicators show a mixed short-term outlook but a strong long-term trend. The RSI is at 47, indicating sufficient upward potential; the moving averages suggest short-term weakness but maintain support at the 200-day moving average ($0.20); MACD shows weakening bearish momentum with a stable signal at $0.21; the Bollinger Bands indicate a potential upward move towards $0.24, with a breakthrough leading to $0.30 [3]. - The cup-and-handle pattern is forming a solid base, with $2 as the ultimate long-term target [6]. Market Dynamics - Following a significant whale movement where a large holder transferred 900 million DOGE (valued at approximately $200 million) to Binance, the market experienced a brief dip but quickly stabilized due to strong buying support, indicating confidence from both retail and institutional investors [4]. - The $0.20-$0.21 range is critical for Dogecoin's short-term performance, as maintaining this level could trigger a parabolic rebound. The approval of a Dogecoin ETF by the SEC is seen as a major catalyst that could attract institutional funds and enhance liquidity, significantly impacting price movements [5]. Investment Strategy - For ordinary traders, the $0.20-$0.21 range is viewed as a "high-value entry zone," with the 200-day moving average providing a safety net. If the price stabilizes and breaks through $0.24, short-term gains towards $0.30 are possible, with long-term potential reaching $2 [8]. - The focus for September should be on two key signals: the stability of the $0.20-$0.21 support level and the progress of the SEC's approval for the Dogecoin ETF. Positive developments in these areas, combined with confirmation of the cup-and-handle breakout, could lead to a significant price surge from $0.21 to $2 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article predicts that gold prices could reach $4,400, drawing parallels to past market movements and emphasizing a significant bullish trend in the long term [5][6][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - The author recalls that last winter (November-December 2024), gold prices remained stagnant before surging by $900, indicating a similar pattern in the current market with a triangular consolidation formation [5]. - Historical bull markets for gold often last over a decade, with the recent breakout of a 13-year "cup and handle" pattern suggesting that the current bull market is just beginning [6]. Group 2: Technical and Fundamental Drivers - The author identifies six fundamental "boosters" for gold prices, stating that technical analysis serves as a catalyst while fundamentals provide the underlying support [8]. 1. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged [9]. 2. M2 money supply has increased dramatically by $1.36 trillion, reaching a historical high, which could lead to inflation and benefit gold [9]. 3. U.S. retail investors have not fully entered the gold market, with current holdings in the largest gold ETF (GLD) being 30% lower than the peak in 2012, despite gold being 42% cheaper at that time [10]. 4. U.S. national debt has reached $37.19 trillion and is expected to exceed $40 trillion, which is favorable for gold in the long term [12]. 5. Central banks have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, doubling the amount bought in the previous decade [12]. 6. A significant shift of funds from U.S. equities to gold is underway, as indicated by the Dow/Gold ratio breaking a long-term upward trend [12]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The combination of factors such as rate cuts, high U.S. stock valuations, and rising debt levels creates a potent environment for a gold market rally [12]. - The author suggests that gold could potentially reach $15,000 within the next decade, highlighting the significant upside potential in the current market conditions [10].

Market Overview - Bitcoin reached a high of 115,716 and a low of 113,355 yesterday, with a volatility of 2,361 points. Ethereum had a high of 3,698 and a low of 3,564, with a volatility of 134 points. A total of 77,138 people were liquidated today, amounting to 1.04 billion yuan [1] - The overall market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in trading volume and activity in the altcoin sector, particularly in DeFi projects like ENA and CRV [2] Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin is currently facing resistance at the lower boundary of a blocking zone, with strong support levels identified at the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level and the 15-minute Vegas channel. A potential breakout above 116,000 is anticipated in the next couple of days [3] - The recommendation is to avoid shorting Bitcoin, as the downside potential appears limited, and there is strong upward momentum towards 116,000. A cautious approach of light buying or small positions is suggested [5] Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum's price action has been weak, but it has formed structural support near the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level. A significant breakout above 3,750 is necessary for a reversal [7] - The current price pattern resembles a "cup and handle" formation, which could lead to a new upward trend if Bitcoin rises and volume increases [9] Altcoin Market - The altcoin market is experiencing mixed signals, with many coins appearing to have peaked while others have yet to rise significantly. A potential altcoin season is expected soon, particularly if Ethereum breaks above 4,100 [10] - Caution is advised with new coins, as many are subject to manipulation and rapid price changes. Recent examples include significant volatility in coins like $LIZARD and $BOSS, highlighting the risks of chasing high prices [11][12]

Group 1 - Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently trading at $0.2200, up 68% from last November's low, but down 53% from the high in November [2] - As the largest meme coin with a market capitalization exceeding $32 billion, Dogecoin is showing bullish signals in its recent technical patterns, indicating potential for significant price increases [2] - The weekly chart indicates that Dogecoin's price reached a peak of $0.7390 in May 2021, driven by Elon Musk, before plummeting to a low of $0.048 in June 2022 [3] Group 2 - The cup and handle pattern consists of a rounded bottom and horizontal support for the cup, while the handle shows price retracement or consolidation [5] - Currently, the handle part of Dogecoin has retraced from a high of $0.4522 to $0.1295, and a breakout above the cup's upper edge at $0.4522 would trigger a bullish breakout [5] - Based on the cup and handle pattern, the depth of the cup is 92%, suggesting a target price of $0.8630, representing a potential increase of 295% from the current price [5] Group 3 - Several factors may drive a rebound in Dogecoin's price, including on-chain data showing that whales are actively accumulating [6] - Addresses holding between 100 million to 1 billion Dogecoins have increased their holdings to 26.5 billion, up from 22.8 billion in January, while addresses holding 10 million to 100 million have also increased to 23.8 billion [6] - Additionally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve a Dogecoin ETF, with institutions like Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, and Rex Shares having submitted related applications [7] - If Bitcoin's price continues to rise, as predicted by institutions like BlackRock, Bitwise, and Ark Invest, it will create a favorable market environment for Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies [7]