特朗普关税措施被叫停后，主要政府债券下跌 金十数据5月29日讯，美国联邦贸易法院驳回特朗普的全球关税，可能刺激了资金逃离主权债务等避险 资产，导致主要政府债券价格下跌。10年期日本国债收益率上升1个基点，至1.525%；美国10年期国债 收益率上升4个基点，至4.5186%；澳大利亚10年期国债收益率上升4个基点，至4.3740% ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government and the United States believe that reaching an agreement quickly would be beneficial for both parties [1] - Japan's chief negotiator, Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in Washington, D.C. to discuss tariff measures [1]

Energy - Syria's Energy Minister announced commitment to complete the natural gas pipeline project with Turkey, with supply expected to start in June [1] - Turkey's Energy Minister stated that Turkey will provide 1,000 megawatts of electricity and 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas daily to Syria [3] - Egypt is negotiating to purchase 40 to 60 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes this year to address a worsening energy crisis [3] - Japan's government indicated that it will not seek energy conservation measures this summer [3] - Germany's Chancellor supports the ban on the Nord Stream gas pipeline to prevent a reconnection between the US and Russia [3] Steel and Agriculture - The World Steel Association projected that China's crude steel production will remain flat year-on-year at 86 million tons by April 2025 [3] - The US Department of Energy designated coal used for steelmaking as a critical material [3] - The South Korean Ministry of Finance will closely monitor the impact of US tariffs on agricultural and food exports and develop support measures [3] - The EU Parliament supports imposing high tariffs on fertilizers and agricultural products from Russia and Belarus [3] - The Russian Industrial Association warned that EU tariff measures against Russia will lead to significant increases in global food and fertilizer prices [3] - Russia will not lower the minimum price recommendations for wheat traders before the end of the export season on July 1 [3]

Group 1: US Dollar - The US House of Representatives is set to vote on Trump's tax reform bill [2] - US Commerce Secretary Ross expressed the desire to reach trade agreements with "most" major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [2] - National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that if a 3% growth is achieved, Trump's tax plan could balance the budget, predicting economic growth to exceed 3% [2] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 41 economists believe Trump's policies have negatively impacted the US economy, with 23 stating the impact is significant; the US economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with April's survey [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - Japanese central bank board member Noguchi stated that there is no need for significant adjustments to the existing balance sheet reduction plan, with intervention only necessary in case of "serious disruptions" in the bond market [3] - The US Treasury confirmed that the current USD/JPY exchange rate reflects fundamental conditions, with no discussions on exchange rate levels [3] - A Reuters survey revealed that two-thirds of Japanese companies want the Bank of Japan to pause interest rate hikes due to Trump's tariff measures [3] - The German Economic Expert Council downgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 0.0% [3] - European Central Bank Vice President de Guindos noted that Eurozone bond yields have decoupled from the US, with the interest rate differential remaining manageable; to prevent inflation from falling below 2%, rates may need to drop below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2% [3] Group 3: Other Developments - The Thai Commerce Minister expressed a desire for a weaker Thai Baht [4] - Bank of America recommended a bullish stance on the Euro against the Mexican Peso, stating that the Peso is overvalued [4] - The Bank of Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 5.5%, in line with market expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey indicates that two-thirds of Japanese companies are urging the Bank of Japan to pause interest rate hikes due to the impact of Trump's tariff measures [1] Group 1 - The survey reflects concerns among Japanese businesses regarding the economic implications of U.S. tariffs [1] - Companies are worried that rising interest rates could further strain their operations amid the ongoing trade tensions [1] - The sentiment among Japanese firms highlights the potential for a slowdown in economic growth if the Bank of Japan proceeds with rate increases [1]

卡塔尔中央银行行长班达尔·阿勒萨尼20日在首都多哈表示，美国贸易政策和关税措施对卡塔尔经济的 间接影响令人担忧。 ...

摩根大通(JPM.N)CEO戴蒙：自关税措施实施以来，我们失去了一些全球客户，因为他们选择本地贷款 机构。 ...

Group 1 - The current state of the U.S. fiscal situation is highlighted in a recent prediction by David Kotok, co-founder and former CIO of Cumberland Advisors, who manages $3.3 billion in assets [1] - Kotok estimates that U.S. tariff measures will reduce S&P 500 earnings per share by $30 over the next 12 months, decreasing the expected earnings from $260 to $230 [1] - He notes that if the combined pressures of tariffs and economic slowdown persist, earnings per share could fall to the range of $200-220, leading to an S&P 500 index drop to 4000-4400 points based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio [1] Group 2 - In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop below 4000 points, but if tariffs remain at an initial expected rate of 10% and the U.S. service trade surplus faces only mild retaliation, the index could hold around 5000 points [2] - Kotok emphasizes that a shift in Trump’s policies could alter the trajectory, and a financial crisis triggering Federal Reserve intervention would significantly reshape the landscape [2]

大家周末，今晚继续关注海外市场的消息。 美股震荡 5月16日晚间，美股走势震荡，三大指数微涨。 自本周早些时候中美官员同意在关税措施上达成90天的停战协议以来，股市强势反弹，投资者对于全球贸易紧张局势升级以及经济风险 上升的担忧有所缓解。 特朗普称美国将在数周内 截至本周，标普500指数上涨了4.5%，道指上涨2.6%，纳指本周迄今已跃升逾6%。周四，标普500和道指双双收高，纳指则小幅回落。 确定对其他国家的关税税率 特朗普声称有"150个国家和地区希望达成协议"。他没有说明具体有多少国家，或是哪些国家将收到信函。他补充说，这些收到信函的国 家"可以提出申诉"，但没有解释这一申诉程序将如何进行。 Certuity首席投资官斯科特·韦尔奇表示："我们认为市场正在进入一个新的阶段，波动性将加大，而那些市值巨大的科技股将不再轻易主 导市场表现。我们并不看空这些股票，只是认为当前进行多元化配置是更明智的做法。" 特朗普表示，他将在"未来两到三周内"为美国的贸易伙伴设定关税税率，并称其政府目前没有能力与所有贸易伙伴同时展开谈判。 特朗普于4月2日宣布对数十个贸易伙伴加征关税，但随后在投资者恐慌情绪下将措施暂缓90天， ...

科技股虽然曾一度大幅受压，但在美国市场中仍将继续扮演重要角色。DWS预期，科技股的表现将对 标普500指数的走势举足轻重。在企业债券方面，DWS亦偏好欧洲市场，特别是投资级别债券，因其风 险低于高收益债券，当市场风险上升时，收益差距可能再次扩大，对后者的价格造成更大压力。 关税措施与随之而来的不确定性及物价上涨，预料将于今明两年对大多数国家的经济增长构成压力。作 为关税战发动国，美国或需承受最大冲击。DWS已将美国2025年的经济增长预测由2.0%下调至1.2%。 至于欧元区，DWS亦把增长预测下调0.2个百分点至0.8%。 鉴于估值差距持续处于极高水平，同时投资者重新配置资产后，预料资金将从美国流向欧洲，目前欧洲 股市的前景较美国股市佳。DWS在重新调整预测后，将2026年3月泛欧指数Stoxx600的目标点数，由 570点轻微下调至550点。 DWS全球首席投资总监Vincenzo Vedda发布对市场与宏观经济及各资产类别的主要观点。市场预期特朗 普关税对经济的打击会较原先预计的温和，令股市于4月中下旬显著反弹。然而，美国政府目前转变频 繁的政治路线，势必会在经济增长及资本市场上留下明显影响。DWS将因 ...