中新社北京12月19日电 (陶思阅)日本央行19日宣布加息25个基点，政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，达30 年来最高水平。受访专家指出，在自相矛盾的财政与货币政策取向下，此次加息可谓"危险一跃"。 日本政策利率自1995年9月调降至0.5%后，货币政策长期保持宽松，甚至长期实施负利率政策。自2024 年3月日本央行决定结束负利率政策、将政策利率从负0.1%提高到0至0.1%区间以来，日本央行在行长 植田和男执掌下致力于探索货币政策正常化。2024年7月和今年1月，日本央行就曾两度加息。 日元避险的核心驱动机制是日元套息交易。所谓套息交易，是指在外汇市场中买入高息货币而卖出低息 货币，将买入的高息货币存入该国银行，以赚取其中高于低息货币国家的利息的一种市场投机行为。 徐嘉琦进一步解释，日本央行的货币政策正常化进程动摇了日元极低利率环境，且美联储与日本央行货 币政策方向相反，加大日元汇率波动性，削弱了日元套息交易的盈利基础。 另一方面，日本的扩张性财政政策加剧市场对其财政可持续性的担忧，可能影响市场对日元长期价值的 信心，进而侵蚀其发挥避险功能的信用根基。 在全球市场方面，各方等待日本央行加息"靴子落地"的 ...

【环球时报特约记者 李好 环球时报记者 杨舒宇】日本经济再度亮起红灯。日本内阁府17日公布，日本 三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年第一季度以来再次出现负增长。分 析人士指出，受困于内需与外需的双重压力，以及对华关系持续紧张，日本经济正滑向更为复杂的境 地。 内外需交困 日本内阁府此前发布中期经济预测报告称，考虑到美国关税政策带来经济下行压力以及物价持续上涨造 成消费疲软，日本政府将2025财年经济增长预期由1.2%下调至0.7%。 中国赴日游客大量减少，将导致日本 GDP 下降 0.36% 尽管部分经济学家预计日本经济可能在四季度重回复苏轨道，但新的风险已然显现。日前，10月就任的 日本首相高市早苗发表涉台露骨挑衅言论，引发国际社会广泛关注和强烈批评。中方多部门发声批驳高 市早苗言论。16日，中国教育部发布留学预警，建议中国公民谨慎规划赴日留学安排。同日，中国文化 和旅游部发布赴日旅游提示，建议中国游客近期避免前往日本旅游。 据日本观光厅统计，2024年中国游客在日消费总额位列各国游客之首。此外，作为日本最大贸易伙伴、 第二大出口对象国和最大进口来源国，2024年中日贸易总 ...

Core Insights - Thailand's economy experienced its slowest growth in four years during the third quarter, with a year-on-year GDP increase of only 1.2%, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter and below the expected 1.6% [1] - Seasonally adjusted, the economy contracted by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the first decline in nearly three years [1] - The NESDC attributes the economic slowdown to weakened tourism and manufacturing, alongside political uncertainty and border conflicts, particularly with Cambodia [1] Economic Performance - The third quarter GDP growth of 1.2% is significantly lower than the previous quarter's growth of 2.8% [1] - The contraction of 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis indicates a notable downturn in economic activity [1] Future Outlook - NESDC anticipates a recovery in the current quarter, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and tourism, which could help avoid a technical recession [1] - The chairman of NESDC highlighted that the primary issue in the third quarter was economic confidence, heavily influenced by political instability and external conflicts [1]

Core Insights - Thailand's economy is at risk of entering a technical recession in Q4 due to a contraction in economic activity indicators in Q3 [1] - The year-on-year growth for Thailand's economy in Q3 is projected at 1.4%, down from 2.8% in Q2, indicating a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.3% compared to a growth of 0.6% in Q2 [1] - The decline in manufacturing output and a slowdown in service sector growth are identified as key factors dragging down the economy [1] - Nomura maintains its GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 1.8% for 2025 [1]

Economic Overview - The prolonged conflict has exposed significant economic issues in Russia, which was previously buoyed by its military-industrial complex [1][3] - President Putin faces critical decisions as the economy shows signs of distress [1][3] Military-Industrial Sector - Initially, the military-industrial sector was a strong growth driver, supported by a multi-trillion ruble defense budget [5] - By September 2025, production capacity for metal products saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, marking the first negative growth since the war began [5][7] - The growth rate for military products plummeted to 6% in September, down from 61.2% the previous month, indicating a severe slowdown in production [7] Industrial Output - Overall industrial output grew by only 0.3% in September, a significant drop from 5.6% the previous year [9] - Manufacturing growth was even lower at 0.4%, the lowest rate recorded in 2023 [9] Energy Sector - The energy sector showed a slight improvement with a 1.2% year-on-year growth in September, attributed to a minor rebound in oil prices [11] - However, this growth is threatened by U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies and India's plans to reduce reliance on Russian oil [11] Fiscal Challenges - Russia's fiscal situation is dire, with raw material export revenues down by 21% and the fiscal deficit reaching five times the original plan [13][15] - The government announced significant spending cuts starting in Q4, which will directly impact military orders and industrial production [15] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer spending and business investments have been declining since Q2, with retail growth dropping from 7.2% last year to just 2.4% in April [16] - Adjusted for inflation, real retail sales have contracted by over 7%, indicating a decrease in consumer purchasing power [16] Economic Outlook - Russia's economy is entering a "technical recession," with previous growth rates of over 4% now unsustainable without military expansion and government spending [17][19] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Russia's 2025 growth forecast down to 0.9%, while the Russian government has lowered its target from 2.5% to 1.5% [19] Political Implications - The ongoing war has led to a critical juncture for Russia, with potential choices between continuing the conflict or seeking a resolution, each carrying significant political consequences [26][28] - The future direction of Russia's economy and political landscape hinges on the decisions made by President Putin in the coming months [28]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell and the Federal Reserve is rooted in the economic challenges facing the U.S., including high debt and low growth, leading to calls for interest rate cuts [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, with unemployment rising to 4.2%, indicating a failure of Trump's tax cuts to stimulate growth [1][5] - High tariffs and interest rates have contributed to rising import prices and suppressed corporate financing, resulting in a manufacturing PMI below the growth threshold for three consecutive months [7] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade due to a $4.5 trillion revenue loss from tax cuts [5][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve's decisions are based on inflation, employment, and growth data, rejecting political pressure from Trump [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is protected by the Federal Reserve Act and Supreme Court rulings, but Trump's team is attempting to challenge this independence [3][5] - Concerns have arisen regarding the potential impact on the dollar's dominance if the Federal Reserve succumbs to political pressure [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic situation, characterized by high debt-to-GDP ratios and persistent deficits, raises concerns about a potential liquidity crisis in the U.S. debt market, which has reached $35 trillion [9] - Historical precedents indicate that conflicts between the White House and the Federal Reserve can lead to significant market volatility [9] - If fiscal and monetary policies diverge for more than six months, the yield curve could invert by up to 150 basis points, posing systemic risks to financial markets [9]

Group 1 - Japan's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, raising concerns about a potential technical recession in the country [1] - In June, Japan's export value fell by 0.5% year-on-year, contrasting sharply with economists' expectations of a 0.5% increase, following a 1.7% decline in May [1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 11.4% year-on-year, with automotive exports plummeting by 26.7% [1][2] Group 2 - The automotive industry, a cornerstone of Japan's exports to the U.S., is facing severe pressure due to trade tensions, with a 25% tariff imposed on Japanese cars since April 3 [2] - In June, the value of automotive exports to the U.S. fell by 26.7%, worsening from a 24.7% decline in May [2] Group 3 - Japan's chief negotiator, Akizawa Ryo, emphasized that any trade agreement must include favorable terms for the automotive sector, which is central to the negotiations [6] - There is a perception that Japan's rigid stance in negotiations may have led to a missed opportunity for a more favorable tariff rate [7]

Group 1 - Trump's recent announcement of imposing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, starting August 1, has escalated global trade tensions [1][5][7] - The underlying motive behind Trump's tariff policy appears to be aimed at pressuring China by constricting trade opportunities for its neighboring countries, which are significant for China's export costs and supply chain efficiency [5][20] - The U.S. economy is facing challenges, with the first quarter GDP showing contraction and predictions for the second quarter being pessimistic, indicating a potential technical recession [7][20] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's unexpected friendly overtures towards China, emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation, suggest underlying anxieties within the U.S. administration [11][13] - The U.S. has been attempting to exert pressure on China regarding rare earth resources, but China's strengthened export controls have enhanced its leverage in the global rare earth market [13][16] - China's response to U.S. pressures has been measured, maintaining control over rare earth resources while allowing some U.S. companies access to its market, showcasing its confidence and patience [16][22] Group 3 - The ongoing trade rivalry between the U.S. and China is far from over, with rare earth issues likely to remain a central topic in negotiations, where China's control gives it a favorable position [20][22] - The potential rifts in U.S. relations with traditional allies may provide China with more diplomatic space, as countries like Japan and South Korea might seek a balanced approach with China amid economic pressures [22]

Core Insights - The likelihood of a technical recession in Thailand remains low according to the central bank's meeting minutes [1] - A significant decline in exports is anticipated in the second half of the year due to U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - The central bank indicates that the risk of a technical recession is minimal, suggesting stability in the domestic economy [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to lead to a substantial contraction in exports, which could affect overall economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes indicate that the likelihood of a technical recession in the near term remains low [1] Economic Outlook - The central bank noted that economic growth is expected to continue, supported by domestic consumption and tourism recovery [1] - Inflation is projected to stabilize, with the central bank maintaining its target range [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Thailand is likely to continue its gradual interest rate hikes to manage inflation while supporting economic growth [1] - The central bank emphasized the importance of monitoring global economic conditions and their potential impact on Thailand's economy [1]