The team at Morgan Stanley releasing their outlook for 2026, writing We raise our S&P 500 price target to 7800, driven by strong earnings growth. We believe that we're in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle, especially for many of the lagging areas. Michael Asset of Morgan Stanley joins me now.Wonderful to see you, Mike. Thanks, Alison. So let's start on the optimism you have and optimistic for quite a while talking about the rotation into the adopters, not just the tech behemoths.Why are you ...

Core Points - The article discusses the identity and professional background of the blogger known as Ironman, who operates on the Political Calculations site, focusing on investing, business, and economics [1] Group 1 - Ironman is described as potentially having multiple professions, including engineer, researcher, analyst, rocket scientist, editor, and teacher [1] - The article suggests that Ironman may not be a single individual, leaving it to readers to determine the true identity behind the posts and comments [1]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by fear and doubt, leading to a notable selloff, with NVIDIA down 17% from its high [1] - Oracle has experienced a significant decline of 40%, indicating that investors are becoming more defensive, favoring sectors like utilities and pharmaceuticals [2] Investor Behavior - Investors are seeking clarity and confidence in the market, which is currently lacking, leading to a rebalancing and potential tax selling as the year ends [2] - The average price target for NVIDIA is $250, suggesting a potential upside of over 30% from current levels, yet investors remain cautious about growth sustainability [4] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly potential rate cuts in December, are seen as crucial for restoring investor confidence and positively impacting the equity market, especially growth equities [5][6] - A rate cut is anticipated to provide a significant boost to the market, as equities typically perform well when rates decrease [6] Year-to-Date Performance - Despite recent selloffs, the S&P 500 is still up over 10% year-to-date, and overseas markets have seen gains exceeding 20%, suggesting a strong overall market performance [7] - Investors are encouraged to view selloffs as opportunities to acquire quality companies at lower prices, emphasizing the importance of patience in investing [7][8] Long-Term Growth Potential - The commitment to capital expenditure in the AI sector is viewed as essential for future profitability, with major players in the space showing strong earnings results [9] - AI is identified as a critical growth engine, and long-term investment in this area is recommended for those seeking growth opportunities [9]

FEAR AND DOUBT, IS THAT IS WHAT IS RIPPING TO THE MARKETS. ERIC: YESTERDAY WAS EYE-OPENING, WITH THE ACTIONS IN THE MARKETS. IT SHOWS INVESTORS ARE NERVOUS.WE HAVE SEEN A PRETTY MUCH THIS WHOLE MONTH, AND THEN YESTERDAY REALLY WAS CLEAR THAT THIS SELLOFF HAS MORE LEGS. IN BIG PARTS OF THE MARKET ARE UNDER CORRECTION. NVIDIA IS NOW DOWN 17% FROM ITS HIGH.YOU WERE TALKING EARLIER ABOUT ORACLE. THAT IS DOWN 40%. YOU ARE SEEING INVESTORS ARE GETTING MORE DEFENSIVE. YOU ARE SEEING SECTORS LIKE UTILITIES, PHARMAC ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The debate heats up as doves sound off on potential rate cuts, with policymakers awaiting the October CPR (Consumer Price Report) and jobs report [1] - Market pricing for a December Fed rate cut initially fell to 30%, then spiked to almost 66%, settling at 63%, indicating high volatility and uncertainty [4][11] - There's a stark division among Fed officials regarding the need for further easing versus holding rates steady to assess the impact of current policy [7][10][15] - The unemployment rate is a key data point that could settle the debate on rate cuts, but the Fed will not have it when they vote [3] - The market is pricing in potential rate cuts, but the timing and extent of these cuts remain uncertain due to mixed economic signals and geopolitical shocks [11][12][13] Bond Market & Investment Strategies - The two-year Treasury yield is at its lowest level since October 28, reflecting market expectations of potential rate cuts [4] - High-quality bonds are seen as a great value opportunity and a hedge against equity risk, with manageable inflation upside risk [21] - The state of the labor market is front and center for bond investors, with the unemployment rate influencing duration and interest rate risk [21] - Investors are keying off the labor market as a catalyst for the bond market, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator [19][21] Credit Market Dynamics - Hyperscalers have raised a combined $108 billion in debt this year, three times the average over the previous nine years, signaling a significant increase in debt issuance [29] - Oracle's credit default swaps have become a barometer for AI risk, with price and volume jumping in recent weeks, potentially indicating defensive positioning or bets against the AI boom [32] - While overall credit stats are improving, there are signs of operational deterioration in some high-yield companies, potentially leading to higher default activity [27][37][38][39]

Before trading options, please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options here: https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document Tony discusses fears spreading across risk markets, the chase for AI dominance, and potential rate cuts. He follows that up with trade ideas for an American multinational tech company and a biopharmaceutical company. Then he looks back on a recent trade for a leading chipmaker. Questions? Drop them below 👇 and we’ll reply ri ...

Emily You know, clearly crypto is still still a kind of niche part of the market, even if Main Street is adopting it to some extent. Bitcoin is worth the one and two thirds trillion dollars though, so you can't really look away. And it represents animal spirits.You know, I guess your risk aversion pretty well. What do you think about the fact that we've gone from 126 on Bitcoin down to 84 in like a month. Yeah, we would say, Matt.Don't get too sentimental about sentiment. And Bitcoin is the poster child for ...

Market Analysis - Housing and labor market weaknesses are beginning to negatively impact each other [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve should not delay further interest rate cuts [1]

China dashed forecasts for rate cuts, says @Moss_Eco. So take the PBOC's latest missive with a grain of salt (via @opinion) https://t.co/WWbksRxfTu ...

Bitcoin attempts 'fragile lift' as Fed signals patience on rate cuts https://t.co/eGycW9UTJP ...