Core Insights - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a key inflation measure closely monitored by financial markets, reflecting changes in the cost of living and consumer behavior [1] - Analysts have varying predictions for the PCE, with expectations of a bullish market reaction if inflation cools below 2.9% [2] - Citi and Goldman Sachs project the headline PCE to rise by 0.29% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating steady inflation [3][4] Inflation Data Release - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the September PCE inflation data on December 5, showing a headline PCE of 2.8%, aligning with expectations, while core PCE fell to 2.8%, below the anticipated 2.9% [5] - The release was delayed due to a government shutdown, highlighting the impact of external factors on economic data dissemination [5] Market Implications - The current PCE data suggests a cooling inflation trend, which may influence Federal Reserve policy, with an 87.2% chance of a rate cut in the upcoming December FOMC meeting [5]

Market Overview - U.S. equities are showing mixed to positive sentiment as investors assess economic data and anticipate a Federal Reserve meeting next week [1] - Major U.S. stock indexes exhibit varied movements, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing upward trends, while the Dow Jones hovers around flat [2] - S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%, Dow futures increase 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures rise 0.4%, indicating cautious optimism in global markets [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The Federal Reserve's final FOMC meeting of 2025 is scheduled for December 9th and 10th, with an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut anticipated [4] - The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September 2025 is expected to provide insights into inflation and its impact on the Fed's decision [5] - Upcoming economic releases include the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on December 9th and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) around December 12th [6] Corporate News and Stock Movements - Netflix is acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery for $82.7 billion, impacting its stock performance [7] - Ulta Beauty's stock surged by 7% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and raising its sales outlook [7] - HP Enterprise's stock dropped following disappointing quarterly results and a subdued outlook [7] - Dollar General shares rose over 14% after boosting its full-year comparable sales forecast [12] - Meta Platforms' stock increased by over 3% after announcing plans to cut the metaverse group's budget by up to 30% [12] - Hormel Foods reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, leading to a stock rise of over 3% [12] - Science Applications International's stock closed up over 16% after reporting strong Q3 adjusted EPS and raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate [12] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims fell to 191,000 for the week ending November 29th, a decrease of 27,000, indicating a resilient employment situation [8]

What This Means For The Economy Inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve's target, but the downtick in annual inflation in September takes some pressure off the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Friday's inflation report could pave the way for a Fed rate cut next week, which was already widely expected. The report is especially significant because the Federal Reserve uses PCE core inflation as its benchmark for whether inflation is running at its target of a 2% annual rate—it hasn't be ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The price of critical metal components in electronics has surged due to geopolitical tensions and export restrictions in China, with dysprosium reaching $910 per kilogram, terbium at $3,700 per kilogram, and gallium at $1,325 per kilogram, marking significant increases from previous rates [1] - The FHFA announced that the 2026 maximum conforming loan limit for one-unit properties will increase to $832,750, with a ceiling of $1,249,125, reflecting adjustments in the housing market [10][11] - Mortgage rates have decreased for the second consecutive week, with the 30-year and 15-year rates falling to 6.19% and 5.44%, respectively, which are close to year-to-date lows [21] Group 2: Industry Innovations and Products - MortgageHalo offers an automated CRM platform designed for loan officers, enhancing client relationships and improving retention through automated marketing campaigns and timely lead alerts [7] - Eris Innovations reports a growing interest among mortgage lenders to hedge interest rate risk using SOFR-based products, which could lead to improved execution levels in capital markets [2] - The Earned Equity Program (EEP) is being promoted as a way to assist borrowers with non-traditional credit profiles, allowing lenders to support a significant percentage of FHA fall-out borrowers [9] Group 3: Regulatory and Compliance Updates - FHA has updated its Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1, incorporating previously published Mortgagee Letters and various technical edits [13] - Ginnie Mae's MBS portfolio increased from $2.83 trillion to $2.84 trillion, with significant monthly issuances supporting liquidity in the housing finance system [17] - The mortgage market is being shaped by shifting monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and technological advances, as discussed in a recent webinar [15]

YOU CAN GET MICHAEL'S WORK ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CONFIDENCE NUMBERS. JOANNA HSU JOINS US FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN WHERE SHE IS THE DIRECTOR OF SURVEYS OF CONSUMERS.THIS ONE LOOKS PARTICULARLY GOOD, JOANNA. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE LOWER THAN THE SURVEY AND LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS READINGS. JOANNA: WE ARE SEEING SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM NOVEMBER.I THINK THE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS NUMBERS ARE DEFINITELY MOVING IN A FAVORABLE DIRECTION BOTH IN THE SHORT RUN AND LONG-RUN. THAT IS ...

But I want to get to the broader markets. And we have a Fed meeting next week and there's a lot going on in rates as well. So let's bring in Rick Rieder.We have a ton of economic data coming out at the top of the hour, Rick. And normally we would have also jobs day to day. That's going to be pushed forward a couple of weeks or back, a couple of weeks, I should say.And this leads me to my my main question. Why would the Fed meet next week if they're not going to get the big jobs number out until after their ...

But I want to get to the broader markets. And we have a Fed meeting next week and there's a lot going on in rates as well. So let's bring in Rick Rieder.We have a ton of economic data coming out at the top of the hour, Rick. And normally we would have also jobs day to day. That's going to be pushed forward a couple of weeks or back, a couple of weeks, I should say.And this leads me to my my main question. Why would the Fed meet next week if they're not going to get the big jobs number out until after their ...

President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026. Bloomberg reported last week that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell. The Fed’s independence would come into question, as Hassett supports President Trump’s approach to cutting interest rates at the Fed.The University of Michigan US Dec 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.1%, better than expectations of no change at 4.5% and the smallest p ...

Core Viewpoint - Consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved in December, marking the first increase since July, despite remaining near historic lows, as reported by the University of Michigan [1] Group 1: Consumer Sentiment Data - Consumer sentiment rose to 53.3 in December from 51 in November, approaching the all-time low of 2022 [2] - December's reading exceeded Wall Street's expectations of 52, but remained below the historical benchmark of 100, indicating ongoing economic pessimism [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Economic Confidence - The increase in consumer sentiment is attributed to a more optimistic outlook on personal finances and inflation, with Americans expecting a 4.1% price increase over the next year, down from 4.5% the previous month [4] - The outlook for personal finances reached its highest level since February, although job market expectations improved only slightly and remained relatively poor [4] - Consumers continue to express frustration over high prices and weakening incomes, which weigh down their personal finances [4]

BritCats Studio / Shutterstock.com What I find most fascinating about the markets in general (mostly the headlines in the financial media) is the amount of certainty that can go into bullish or bearish calls. Whichever side of the fence a particular analyst or talking head finds themselves on, I feel as though a given position can become more entrenched over time. Quick Read Tariff uncertainty and rising inflation pressures are causing businesses to delay hiring decisions. The new tax and spending bi ...