Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor appointed by President Trump, warns that the U.S. economy faces recession risks unless the Fed continues to cut interest rates next year, highlighting a deep division within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [1][2]. Group 1: Miran's Position on Interest Rates - Miran emphasizes the need for further interest rate cuts, suggesting that the rising unemployment rate exceeds expectations and should prompt a shift towards a more dovish policy stance [1][2]. - He has advocated for larger rate cuts of 50 basis points since joining the Fed in September, although he acknowledges that the necessity for such cuts has diminished after a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points [2][3]. - Miran argues that maintaining a tight policy could lead to unnecessary unemployment and that the underlying inflation rate is close to the Fed's target when excluding certain distortions [2][3]. Group 2: Divergence Among Fed Officials - Other Fed officials, such as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, express a more cautious stance, suggesting that the current monetary policy is favorable and that they can pause rate cuts to assess the impact of previous reductions [5][6]. - New York Fed President John Williams and Boston Fed President Susan Collins also indicate a preference for a more measured approach, with Collins noting concerns about persistent inflation [5][6]. - The recent FOMC meeting revealed significant internal dissent, with three votes against the decision to cut rates, reflecting differing priorities among officials regarding labor market conditions and inflation control [6].

Coming to the economy. Investors are watching for signals from policymakers heading into a key year for the Federal Reserve, with a new chair expected to be announced soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack among those, preferring to hold rates higher for longer.Well, our next guest is taking the other side, voting for a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's last meeting. Joining us now is Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron. Very good morning to you, Stephen.Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of bitcoin could exceed $170,000 by 2026 if the Federal Reserve loses control of the economy and resorts to aggressive stimulus measures, according to CoinShares' latest outlook report [1] Scenario Summaries - The base case scenario predicts bitcoin trading between $110,000 and $140,000 during a slower economic expansion, characterized by subdued growth, persistent inflation, and cautious Fed rate cuts [2] - In the bull case, bitcoin could rise above $150,000 if inflation decreases steadily and AI-related productivity gains enable the Fed to implement more decisive rate cuts [3] - The bear case presents two outcomes: in a recession where the Fed cannot respond quickly, bitcoin may initially fall but could rebound past $170,000 as aggressive easing is interpreted as the Fed losing control [4] - A stagflation scenario, combining weak growth with rising inflation, could see bitcoin drop to the $70,000–$100,000 range due to ETF outflows [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors can gain exposure to bitcoin and ether futures through the CoinShares Bitcoin & Ether ETF (BTF), which currently holds $14.5 million in assets and has seen net inflows of $913,570 over the past month [6] - BTF invests in CME bitcoin and ether futures contracts, as well as treasuries, corporate bonds, and cash, rather than holding digital assets directly, with a 1.25% expense ratio [7] - Beyond the cyclical dynamics of 2026, the gradual decline in dollar reserve dominance is expected to provide a long-term structural tailwind for cryptocurrencies as central banks diversify away from single-currency dependence [7]

Core Insights - The bond market has stabilized, with 10-year yields hovering between 4.1% and 4.2%, contributing to support in the equity market [2] - Economic data, particularly GDP, will be a focal point for market participants, with expectations of consumer strength influencing future economic outlook [3][4] - Long-term yields are expected to remain rangebound until 2026, with potential for shifts based on economic data [4][5] Fixed Income Market - The lack of volatility in the bond market has been beneficial for equities, and expectations suggest that yields will remain elevated and rangebound [8][10] - The market anticipates one to two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve into 2026, but inflation is expected to remain relatively stable [11][12] - The term premium has increased due to uncertainties in fiscal policy and Federal Reserve actions, indicating potential for higher long-term yields [13][14] International Equity Market - International stocks are projected to see earnings growth of 11.5% next year, up from flat earnings this year in the Eurozone, with attractive valuations compared to the S&P 500 [7] - The broadening of the equity market rally may benefit international stocks, particularly as investors seek growth beyond technology sectors [6] - Japan is showing stronger performance compared to the EU, with increased defense spending and positive economic indicators [15][16] European Market Outlook - Germany's fiscal stimulus program is expected to ramp up next year, which could enhance growth and earnings in the Eurozone [16][17] - Recent optimism from the European Central Bank regarding GDP forecasts is supported by government spending, exports, and corporate investments, including in AI [17][18] - Increased lending in the Eurozone is anticipated to boost growth and earnings, contributing positively to the market outlook [18]

Market Outlook - Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects modest growth with moderate to moderating inflation, a good setup for risk assets in 2026 [3] - The Institute has a year-end 2026 target of 7500 for the S&P 500, considering it a doable number given the expected economic environment [7] - The Institute anticipates the rest of the world, including the US, will perform better next year relative to this year [13] Investment Strategy - The Institute took advantage of the pullback in early April and would like to see another one [4] - The Institute previously overweight infoch and communication services but went neutral on communication services and technology [4][5] - The Institute favors financials as its most favored sector, anticipating financing, M&A, deregulation, and a better economy [6] - The Institute likes industrials and utilities, viewing them as beneficiaries of the AI trade due to the need for data center construction and electrical grid upgrades [5][6] - The Institute is neutral on developed international and emerging markets, viewing emerging markets as a potentially cheaper way to play technology and AI [8][9] - The Institute prefers sticking with larger cap midcaps and US over international, but is looking for opportunities to increase international exposure [9][10]

My mother and father both worked for approx 35 years. But in two years after their retirement and after my sister's wedding, we exhausted the life savings. We are left with zero money.And I kept wondering how is this possible. Today I'm going to share that reason and also my 20 years of investment learnings in the theme seeds of change and the topic why and how learning to invest early can change the fortune of your life. I was fortunate to have born to a loving, caring and humble parents.My mother used to ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, remaining just below its all-time high set earlier this month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 170 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite also gained 0.4% [4][6] - Market sentiment was bolstered by strength in commodities, with gold and silver reaching record highs and oil prices rising after US authorities pursued another sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean [4][6] Corporate Developments - Shares of Uber and Lyft rose approximately 1.4% each following their announcements to launch robotaxi services in London next year through partnerships with Chinese technology company Baidu, with testing set to begin in the first half of 2026 [4][6] Economic Indicators - The US Labor Department is expected to release weekly data on jobless benefit applications, a key indicator of layoffs, on Wednesday [5][6] - Economic sentiment has weakened over the year due to persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and weaker retail sales, with businesses and households facing uncertainty from a US-led trade war [5][6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate in its last three meetings, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target, and is expected to keep rates unchanged at the January meeting [5][6] International Markets - European markets were mostly lower, with Germany's DAX flat and France's CAC 40 and Britain's FTSE 100 both down 0.4% [5][6] - Asian markets closed higher, led by Japan's Nikkei 225, which jumped 1.8% to 50,402.39, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks [5][6] Commodity Prices - US benchmark crude rose by $1.17 to $57.69 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by $1.23 to $61.70 per barrel [5][6] - Gold prices gained 1.3% to $4,443.10 per ounce, and silver surged over 2% to $68.90 per ounce, setting a new record [5][6]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point in December but indicated only one rate cut is expected in 2026 due to persistent high inflation [2][7] - A softer inflation reading for November has raised hopes for more rate cuts, with expectations that inflation could decline to 2.4% by the end of 2026 and economic growth could accelerate to 2.3% next year [8] Consumer Discretionary Stocks - Five consumer discretionary stocks are recommended: Amer Sports, Inc. (AS), Crocs, Inc. (CROX), Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), and Roku, Inc. (ROKU) [3] - These stocks have seen positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 60 days and carry a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for solid returns [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Amer Sports, Inc. (AS)**: Expected earnings growth rate for next year is 21.5%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 10.7% over the last 60 days [9][11] - **Crocs, Inc. (CROX)**: Expected earnings growth rate for next year is 3.9%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 5% over the past 60 days [12] - **Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB)**: Expected earnings growth rate for next year is 5.3%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 0.7% over the past 60 days [13] - **Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)**: Expected earnings growth rate for next year is 9.1%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 0.7% over the past 60 days [14] - **Roku, Inc. (ROKU)**: Expected earnings growth rate for the current year is over 100%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 83.3% over the past 60 days [15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces risks of economic recession unless interest rates are lowered further next year, according to Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve Board [2] - Miran has noted that the necessity for a significant rate cut of 50 basis points has diminished, although he still advocates for a more accommodative policy stance due to rising unemployment [2] - Since September, the Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, and the need for another large cut may be less urgent as the Fed approaches a phase of more precise management of monetary policy [2] Group 2 - This month, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding future policy directions, with most expecting only one more rate cut next year [3] - Concerns about inflation persist, as the current inflation rate remains nearly 1 percentage point above the 2% target, while rising unemployment raises fears of a significantly weakened job market [3]

Core Insights - The broader equity markets experienced a mini recovery, ending a four-day losing streak, driven by cooling inflation and strong performances from key blue-chip stocks [1][2] - The November consumer price index report indicated an annual inflation increase of 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, while core consumer price inflation was at 2.6%, compared to a forecast of 3% [1] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on "cash cow" stocks with high return on equity (ROE) to maximize returns, as high ROE indicates effective reinvestment of cash [2][3] - TE Connectivity plc (TEL), ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO), Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC), Assurant, Inc. (AIZ), and Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) are highlighted as stocks with high ROE and favorable efficiency scores [2][7] Financial Metrics - ROE is defined as Net Income divided by Shareholders' Equity, serving as a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health [3] - A higher ROE signifies better management efficiency in generating profits without new equity capital [4] Screening Parameters - Stocks were screened based on criteria including cash flow greater than $1 billion, ROE greater than the industry average, price/cash flow ratio lower than the industry average, return on assets (ROA) greater than the industry average, and a 5-year EPS historical growth greater than the industry average [5][6][7] - Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) was also considered, indicating stocks likely to outperform the market [7] Company Profiles - **TE Connectivity**: A global technology company focused on connectivity and sensor solutions, with a long-term earnings growth expectation of 12.3% and a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.5% [8][9] - **ZTO Express**: A leading express delivery service in China, with a Zacks Rank of 1 and a long-term earnings growth expectation of 3.1% [10][11] - **Pilgrim's Pride**: Engaged in the production and distribution of chicken products, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.4% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [11][12] - **Assurant**: A provider of risk management solutions, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.7% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [12][13] - **Host Hotels**: A leading lodging REIT with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [14][15]