金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（6月6日） 冲突情况： 8. 乌克兰方面表示，俄罗斯发动无人机和导弹袭击。基辅因防空系统启动而传出爆炸声。 1. 克里姆林宫：（关于美国总统特朗普与普京通话）双方未就任何面对面会晤达成任何协议。 2. "双方打一会儿再介入" ，特朗普称短时间难以促成俄乌立即停火。 和谈情况： 1. 据国际文传电讯社：俄罗斯将英国文化协会列为不受欢迎组织。 11. 美媒：特朗普私下里佩服乌克兰对俄罗斯的袭击，但担心妨碍停火。 1. 乌克兰军方称袭击了俄罗斯在布良斯克地区的导弹系统。 2. 泽连斯基称乌多地遭俄方大规模无人机及导弹袭击。 3. 俄罗斯指责英法为乌袭击俄境内机场提供支持。 4. 俄罗斯联邦安全局：沃罗涅日地区一铁路轨道遭爆炸装置袭击而受损。 5. 俄罗斯国防部：俄罗斯武装部队在过去一天袭击了乌克兰攻击无人机的组装车间、储存和发射场。 6. 俄罗斯军队的导弹袭击对赫尔松州行政大楼造成了严重破坏，这是该地点同一天遭受的第二次袭击。 7. 塔斯社援引俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫的话说，俄罗斯将修复被乌克兰损坏的飞机。 2. 美国国防部长赫格塞思：我们认为整个联盟将实现5%的国防开支承 ...

美国白宫：美国总统特朗普在工具箱里保留对俄罗斯制裁的选项。 ...

针对俄罗斯，乌克兰又有新动作！ 6月3日晚间，据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月3日，乌克兰全境发布防空警报。当天早些时候，乌首都基辅曾拉 响防空警报。乌克兰国家安全局称袭击了克里米亚大桥，并导致该大桥严重受损。俄罗斯官方对此说法尚无回 应。 此外，欧盟委员会2日发表声明说，欧盟正制定针对俄罗斯的第18轮制裁措施，重点锁定俄罗斯能源收入。 克里米亚大桥遭袭 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月3日，乌克兰国家安全局通报称，乌克兰国家安全局开展了一项特别行动，从水 下袭击了克里米亚大桥。这是对该桥的第三次袭击。 乌克兰国家安全局称，乌特工对这座大桥的桥墩进行了爆破准备，该特别行动持续了数月之久。3日凌晨4时44 分，首个爆炸装置被成功引爆，没有造成任何平民伤亡。通报称，大桥水下支撑结构在底部位置遭到严重破 坏，1100公斤TNT当量炸药发挥了作用。 另据乌克兰媒体3日报道，克里米亚大桥发生了多次发生爆炸。目前 该大桥已处于紧急危险状态。乌国家安全局局长马柳克监督行动执行并协调作战规划。 克里米亚大桥于2016年初动工，全长19公里，跨海部分7.5公里，公路桥部分于2018年5月开通，铁路桥2019年 12月开通。自俄乌冲突爆 ...

Group 1 - A bridge collapse in Bryansk, Russia, on May 31 led to a passenger train derailing, resulting in at least 7 fatalities and 30 injuries [1][3] - Reports indicate that unidentified individuals placed four explosive devices on the bridge, which were detonated as the train passed [2][3] - The Moscow Railway Company attributed the incident to "illegal interference with transportation activities" [3] Group 2 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to impact regional stability, with military actions reported in various areas including Sumy and Donetsk [5] - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, but significant differences remain regarding key issues [6][7] - The U.S. State Department expressed a desire to avoid prolonged negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing the urgency of reaching an agreement [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article reports on the conditions set by Russian President Putin for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which include a written commitment from Western leaders to halt NATO's eastward expansion and to lift some sanctions against Russia [1] Group 1 - Russian sources indicate that President Putin has agreed to cooperate with Ukraine on a memorandum outlining the framework for a peace agreement, including a ceasefire timeline [1] - Following a two-hour conversation with Trump on May 19, Putin expressed his willingness to engage in discussions regarding the peace memorandum [1] - Russia is currently drafting its version of the memorandum, but it is unclear how long this process will take [1]

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed willingness to meet with Russian President Putin for discussions on immediate ceasefire, emphasizing the importance of U.S. involvement in the negotiation process [1] - Ukraine is currently in discussions with the U.S. and EU regarding new sanctions against Russia, with details of the 18th round of sanctions already discussed with the EU [1] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov announced that arrangements for a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will be announced soon, thanking Trump and Erdogan for their roles in facilitating direct talks [2] Group 2 - Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated that the principles regarding a potential meeting between Putin and Zelensky remain unchanged, emphasizing that any meeting should be based on agreements reached by the negotiating teams [3] - Peskov indicated that the content of the conflict resolution memorandum drafted by both sides will be revealed soon, which will lead to discussions on the next phase of negotiations [3] - The Russian side is currently working on a list of conditions for a temporary ceasefire, while military operations continue [3]

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russia will submit a memorandum regarding its views on a ceasefire and the conditions for a leaders' meeting [1] - Zelensky expressed willingness to meet with Russian President Putin for bilateral talks or a trilateral meeting with US President Trump to discuss immediate ceasefire [1] - Ukraine is in discussions with the US and EU regarding new sanctions against Russia, with details of the 18th round of sanctions already discussed with the EU [1] Group 2 - Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov reiterated that the Russian position on a direct meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky remains unchanged, emphasizing that any meeting should be based on specific agreements reached by the Russian and Ukrainian delegations [2] - Peskov indicated that the content of the memorandums drafted by both sides regarding conflict resolution will be revealed soon, which will lead to discussions on the next phase of negotiations [2] - Reports suggest that Russia's conditions for halting the conflict include a written guarantee from NATO not to expand eastward and to exclude Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other former Soviet states from NATO membership [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

Group 1 - German Chancellor Merz announced that Germany and its allies will no longer restrict the range of weapons provided to Ukraine, allowing Ukraine to strike military targets within Russia [1][3] - Merz's statement may pave the way for Ukraine to receive Germany's Taurus cruise missiles, contrasting with former Chancellor Scholz's refusal to supply such weapons [3][4] - The announcement has sparked controversy within Germany, with some officials warning it could lead to war, while others support the provision of advanced weaponry to Ukraine [3][4] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump is reportedly considering new sanctions against Russia due to frustrations over slow peace negotiations, although he has not shown a strong desire to pressure Putin [5][6] - Trump's potential sanctions may not include new measures against the Russian banking sector but could involve other options to compel Russia to negotiate [5][6] - The failure of EU and U.S. negotiations to coordinate actions against Russia's sanctions evasion has been reported, indicating a lack of unified strategy [7] Group 3 - European leaders are planning to increase pressure on Moscow, with discussions on military and financial support for Ukraine ongoing [8] - Ukraine's President Zelensky reported significant drone attacks from Russia, indicating a continued escalation in military actions [8][9] - Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting numerous Ukrainian drones, highlighting ongoing military confrontations [9]

据知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普考虑本周对俄实施制裁，因其对俄罗斯总统普京持续攻击乌克兰及和 平谈判进展缓慢感到不满。 其中一名人士称，新的银行业制裁可能不在考虑范围内，但其他选项正在讨论中，以迫使俄罗斯领导人 在谈判桌上做出让步，包括乌克兰支持的30天停火——俄罗斯长期拒绝该提议。特朗普也可能决定不实 施新制裁。 特朗普上周日谈及对俄新制裁的可能性时表示，他"绝对"在考虑这些措施。特朗普在谈到普京时 称，"他在屠杀很多人......我不知道他怎么了。" 知情人士称，特朗普也对俄乌和平谈判感到厌倦，正考虑如果最后努力失败就彻底放弃谈判。这对一位 以"上任首日终结俄乌冲突"为竞选口号的领导人来说是显著转变。目前尚不清楚若美国退出调解将发生 什么，以及特朗普是否会继续向乌克兰提供军事支持。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特（Karoline Leavitt）在给《华尔街日报》的声明中称："特朗普总统已明确 表示希望看到通过谈判达成和平协议。他也明智地保留了所有选项。" 在过去几个月里，美俄关系已经经历了起伏，但上述动态标志着两国关系的进一步恶化 。特朗普上任 时认为，凭借他所认为的与普京的牢固私人关系，自己处于改善两国关 ...