Are we living in an AI bubble? @BradStone breaks it down and dives into more stories from the January edition of Businessweek — all about what we can expect next year https://t.co/evLbK3meHb https://t.co/LUfUyxYrzx ...

Summary of BofA December Global Fund Manager Survey Industry Overview - The survey reflects the sentiment of global fund managers regarding macroeconomic conditions, asset allocation, and investment strategies as of December 2025. Key Points Macro & Economic Outlook - **Macro Optimism**: The macro optimism is at its highest since August 2021, with 57% of respondents predicting a soft landing for the economy, 37% expecting no landing, and only 3% anticipating a hard landing [2][19] - **Profit Expectations**: Net profit expectations rose to 29%, the highest since August 2021, indicating a positive outlook on global profits [26] - **Liquidity Conditions**: Rated as the third best in the past 17 years, with 61% of investors rating liquidity conditions as positive, the highest since September 2021 [41][43] Asset Allocation Trends - **Cash Levels**: Cash levels dropped to a record low of 3.3%, down from 3.7%, indicating a strong shift towards risk assets [1][103] - **Equity and Commodity Allocation**: Allocation to equities rose to a net 42% overweight (OW), the highest since December 2024, while commodities reached a net 18% OW, the highest since September 2022 [16][55] - **Sector Rotation**: Significant rotation into US stocks, technology, and materials, while reducing exposure to bonds, healthcare, and staples [4][60] Investment Risks and Concerns - **AI Bubble**: Identified as the biggest tail risk by 38% of investors, with concerns about overinvestment in AI-related capital expenditures [31][29] - **Credit Event Sources**: 40% of investors believe private equity/private credit is the most likely source of a credit event, followed by AI hyperscaler capex at 29% [34][36] Crowded Trades - **Most Crowded Trades**: "Long Magnificent 7" remains the most crowded trade at 54%, followed by "Long Gold" at 29% [37][39] Future Expectations - **Bond Yield Expectations**: 38% of investors expect long-term interest rates to rise, the highest since April 2022 [45] - **Yield Curve Steepening**: 75% of investors anticipate a steepening yield curve in the next 12 months [48] Regional and Sector Allocations - **US Equities**: Net 6% overweight in US equities, the highest since February 2025 [145] - **Underweight Sectors**: Significant underweight positions in energy (26% UW) and consumer staples (20% UW) [56][172] Conclusion - The December survey indicates a strong bullish sentiment among fund managers, with significant shifts towards equities and commodities, while concerns about potential risks, particularly related to AI and credit events, remain prevalent. The overall outlook suggests a cautious optimism as investors navigate the current economic landscape.

Core Insights - Coreweave shares have dropped over 20% this week, reflecting growing anxiety about the AI market bubble [1] - The current market sentiment is heavily influenced by concerns over debt, depreciation, and doubts about future growth [2] Funding Landscape - The total funding required over the next couple of years is estimated to be between $700 billion and $1 trillion [3] - Approximately 90% of this funding is expected to come from operating cash flows, with only 10% from debt, primarily issued by companies like Meta, which has a higher credit rating than the US government [4] Market Dynamics - Coreweave and Oracle represent only 2-3% of the overall debt market, indicating that the broader funding environment remains stable despite specific concerns [5] - There are supply chain issues affecting Coreweave and Oracle, but these companies are not facing a demand problem [6] Competitive Landscape - The AI ecosystem is currently dominated by OpenAI and Google, with Google’s Gemini model gaining significant traction and market cap, surpassing OpenAI in investor perception [10][11] - The volatility in AI model leadership is expected to continue, with new models set to enter the market in Q1 2026, suggesting that OpenAI's dominance may not be permanently diminished [11]

OpenAI has hired George Osborne, the former chancellor, to help grow American-led artificial intelligence infrastructure worldwide - Jack Taylor/Getty Images for SXSW London The developer of ChatGPT has hired George Osborne to help expand its business internationally. The former Conservative Chancellor confirmed he would take on a role leading OpenAI’s push to establish American-led AI infrastructure worldwide, in a challenge to China. Confirming his appointment on X, Mr Osborne said: “I recently asked ...

JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images Markets are split into two camps as 2025 winds down: AI is a bubble or AI is not a bubble. John Belton of Gabelli Funds notes that the market is prone to two distinct types of bubbles. Despite constant chatter, he doesn't think AI has formed into either type yet. You're either in one camp or the other as 2025 comes to a close: you think AI is a bubble or that AI is not a bubble. But for those wondering where they stand, there's nuance in the debate to be aware ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 368 points, or 0.76%, to 48,048, marking one of its weakest sessions this month [1] - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.65%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.39% [1] Labor Market Data - The November nonfarm payrolls report indicated an addition of 64,000 jobs, surpassing expectations of approximately 45,000 [3] - However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, up from 4.4%, the highest level since July 2021, contrary to economists' expectations of it remaining around 4.5% [4] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year, citing rising risks in the labor market, but the latest data did not clarify the Fed's stance [5] - Market expectations for a near-term rate cut have diminished, with only a 26% chance of a cut at the January 28 Fed meeting following the jobs report [7] Bond and Currency Markets - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.15%, down from 4.18% on Monday, reflecting concerns over economic growth [8] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.05, nearing its lowest level since early October [9] Commodity Markets - WTI crude oil prices dropped nearly 2.5% to $55.45 per barrel, briefly falling below $55 for the first time since February 2021 [9] - Gold futures remained near $4,335 an ounce, close to record highs, while Bitcoin rebounded to around $87,500 after earlier dipping below $85,300 [10] Sector Performance - Energy stocks were among the worst performers, with the S&P 500 Energy sector declining over 2%, and companies like APA, Diamondback Energy, Phillips 66, and Halliburton down between 3.5% and 4% [11] - Technology shares remained volatile amid ongoing concerns regarding the AI bubble, with Broadcom and Oracle experiencing significant declines earlier in the week but showing slight intraday recoveries [10] Corporate News - Tesla shares rose approximately 1% after CEO Elon Musk confirmed testing of driverless cars in Austin, Texas, reaching its highest closing level of 2025 [12] - Ford Motor shares remained stable as the company anticipates about $19.5 billion in EV-related charges and plans to focus more on gas and hybrid vehicles [12] - Among active stocks, AMC Robotics surged over 80%, while Nvidia traded modestly higher on heavy volume [13]

Core Viewpoint - CleanSpark, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLSK) has experienced significant selling pressure, primarily due to a decline in Bitcoin prices and renewed concerns regarding the artificial intelligence (AI) sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - CleanSpark's stock fell by 15.07% on Monday, closing at $11.91, marking its second consecutive day of decline [1]. - The decline in CleanSpark's stock is in line with other companies in the sector, such as Terawulf, Hut 8, and Cipher Mining, following Bitcoin's drop below the $90,000 level [2]. Group 2: Bitcoin Production - In November, CleanSpark produced 587 Bitcoins, which is a 4% decrease from the 612 Bitcoins produced in October [4]. - The average daily Bitcoin production for CleanSpark was 19.54, reflecting a 1% decline from the previous month's average of 19.75 [4]. Group 3: AI Industry Concerns - Investor sentiment has been negatively impacted by concerns over the AI bubble, particularly due to significant borrowing in the sector, exemplified by Oracle Corp.'s $108 billion in debt [3]. - There are worries about the ability of technology giants to generate profits from their heavy investments in AI [3].

Fears of an AI bubble are likely here to stay. But a strong spending landscape means many semiconductor stocks can still thrive, according to J.P. ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor Michael Burry emphasizes concerns about GPU depreciation at major hyperscalers and AI companies, referencing Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella's insights on the economic complexities of data center investments [1][3][6]. Group 1: Microsoft and GPU Depreciation - Nadella highlighted the rapid advancements in chip design, which lead to older infrastructure becoming less efficient due to differences in power usage and cooling demands [3][4]. - Microsoft is cautious about scaling data center capacity tied to a single generation of NVIDIA GPUs, indicating a strategic approach to avoid overbuilding [4][5]. - Nadella expressed concerns about the economic value lost as new NVIDIA chips are released annually, which aligns with Burry's claims regarding overstated earnings and depreciation practices among hyperscalers [6][7]. Group 2: Burry's Claims and Industry Reactions - Burry has reiterated his stance on the overstated earnings and depreciation practices by companies like Meta and Oracle, labeling it as a prevalent form of modern fraud [7]. - Investor Steve Eisman disagrees with Burry's depreciation calculations, suggesting that the focus should be on the returns and cost savings from these significant investments [8].

Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Degan McDow along with my co-host Taylor Riggs, Brian Breberg, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for this hour, Mr. . Sunshine, Rosecliffe, founder and managing partner Mike Murphy.And I actually mean that. I don't mean that in an Eddie Haskell sort of way. Investors are hoping for a Santa Claus rally to cap off what has been a big year, but keeping their eyes set firmly on 2026.Analysts from America's largest investment banks, banks galore, seeing at least an 11% gain on the ...