Core Viewpoint - The Canadian GDP growth is expected to slow significantly, but a recession can be avoided, according to Stephen Brown from Capital Economics [1] Group 1: Election Outcome - The Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, won the Canadian election but lost its majority [1] - The election results are not expected to change the GDP growth outlook [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - The Liberal Party is likely to continue governing and implement moderate stimulus policies [1] - Carney may need to make concessions to the New Democratic Party or the Bloc Québécois to implement his plans, potentially leading to looser fiscal policies [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The anticipated fiscal policies may lead to a reassessment of the expectation that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates three more times this year [1] - This could prevent the Canadian dollar and bond yields from declining as significantly as previously expected [1]

2025.04. 23 本文字数：3342，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 最近几周，美国关税政策不确定性令全球经济前景蒙尘。同时，由此导致的政策信誉受损，也令美元 资产反噬，美国遭遇股债汇三杀，美元指数今年迄今，已跌超9%，并料将继续下跌。而美元走软， 给全球央行同时带来了缓解因素和头痛因素。 更大降息空间？ 资金流出美元资产反映了更广泛的信心危机，并可能产生溢出效应。例如随着美元走弱，美国进口通 胀率将上升。 对其他经济体而言，美元的下跌也导致其他货币对美元升值，尤其是日元、瑞士法郎和欧元等避险货 币。伦敦证交所（LSEG）的数据显示，自今年年初以来，日元对美元升值逾10%，瑞士法郎和欧元 升值了约11%。除了避险货币，今年对美元走强的其他货币还包括墨西哥比索对美元上涨5.5%，加 元对美元升值超过4%，波兰兹罗提对美元也升值了9%以上，俄罗斯卢布对美元甚至升值了约22%。 当然，尽管美元疲软，一些新兴市场货币对美元也仍然录得贬值。比如，本月稍早，越南盾和印尼盾 对美元汇率均跌至历史新低。土耳其里拉上周对美元也创下历史新低。 根据美国银行最近的全球基金经理调查，61%的参与者预计未来12个 ...

最近几周，美国关税政策不确定性令全球经济前景蒙尘。同时，由此导致的政策信誉受损，也令美元资产反噬， 美国遭遇股债汇三杀，美元指数今年迄今，已跌超9%，并料将继续下跌。而美元走软，给全球央行同时带来了缓 解因素和头痛因素。 美国银行最近的全球基金经理调查显示，61%的参与者预计未来12个月美元将继续下跌，这是近20年来主要投资 者对美元最悲观的预期。 更大降息空间？ 资金流出美元资产反映了更广泛的信心危机，并可能产生溢出效应。例如随着美元走弱，美国进口通胀率将上 升。 对其他经济体而言，美元的下跌也导致其他货币对美元升值，尤其是日元、瑞士法郎和欧元等避险货币。伦敦证 交所（LSEG）的数据显示，自今年年初以来，日元对美元升值逾10%，瑞士法郎和欧元升值了约11%。除了避险 货币，今年对美元走强的其他货币还包括墨西哥比索对美元上涨5.5%，加元对美元升值超过4%，波兰兹罗提对美 元也升值了9%以上，俄罗斯卢布对美元甚至升值了约22%。 当然，尽管美元疲软，一些新兴市场货币对美元也仍然录得贬值。比如，本月稍早，越南盾和印尼盾对美元汇率 均跌至历史新低。土耳其里拉上周对美元也创下历史新低。 根据美国银行最近的全球基金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, a slight easing of the US ORt financial stress index, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 805.06 yuan/g on April 18, with a volume of 385,994. The spot Shanghai gold T+D's closing price was 803.87 yuan/g, with a volume of 25,222. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,341.30 dollars/ounce, and the London gold spot price was 1,62.50 dollars/ounce. SPDR gold ETF holdings were 952.29 tons, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 433.33 tons [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8,247.00 yuan/ten grams on April 18, with a volume of 540,406. The spot Shanghai silver T+D's closing price was 8,227.00 yuan/ten grams, with a volume of 497,806. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 32.55 dollars/ounce, and the London silver spot price was 32.31 dollars/ounce. The US iShare silver ETF holdings were 14,120.10 tons, and the Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 5,767.09 tons [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 97.62, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 2.59, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 102.31 [1]. Important Information - **Tariff Negotiations**: Japan will not blindly yield in US tariff negotiations. Trump said the tariff negotiation progress was good, but the Mexican president said there was no consensus [1]. - **Interest Rate Statements**: Trump criticized Powell and demanded an immediate interest rate cut. Republican lawmakers supported Powell, stating that no president has the right to dismiss the US central bank governor [1]. - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut and a 5 - trillion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling over the next decade, in exchange for a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and September, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction [1]. - **Global Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates in May and 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly set up long positions when precious metal prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,050 - 3,150 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 720 - 740 yuan/g and the resistance level around 820 - 870 yuan/g. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ten grams [1].

印度财政部长Nirmala Sitharaman称，欢迎印度央行降息，需要印度央行的全力支持来促进经济增长。 ...

肯尼亚央行降息至10%，分析师预期10.25%。 ...