Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 35th day, tying the record for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if the shutdown lasts for 4 weeks, the annual GDP growth rate could decline by approximately 1 to 2 percentage points, resulting in an economic loss of about $7 billion [1] - If the shutdown extends to 6 weeks, the economic loss is projected to increase to $11 billion, and if it reaches 8 weeks, the loss could be as high as $14 billion [1] Group 2 - Despite the economic pressures from the government shutdown, the U.S. dollar index surpassed the 100 mark during Asian trading hours, marking the first time since August 1 [1] - The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, reaching a high of 154.48, the highest level since mid-February [1] - Following comments from Japan's Finance Minister regarding market volatility, the yen temporarily rebounded to 153.49 [1] Group 3 - The euro fell by 0.15% against the dollar, touching the 1.15 level, while the Singapore dollar dropped to 1.3070, the lowest since May 12 [2] - The Indonesian rupiah also declined by 0.5% to 16,733, marking a new low since September 26 [2] - The Indian rupee experienced a rebound after suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, rising by 0.4% to 88.3925, the largest single-day gain since October 15 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking [1][3][6][18][23][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented, along with the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from November 5th to 9th shows that temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be near or below the median [6] - In the US Midwest, sporadic showers may disrupt early - November harvesting or other field operations, with variable weather and limited precipitation [8] - In central Brazil, showers have restarted, and more extensive rainfall is expected this week, which may affect soybean crop germination and early growth [9] 进出口及产量数据 - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% month - on - month, while ITS reported a 5.19% increase [10] - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November slightly higher than in October, with export taxes remaining unchanged [10] - The USDA may release several major agricultural reports in November, and analysts expect US soybean crushing volume in September to reach a record high [10][11] - The amount of soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US in August decreased compared to July [11] - The soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso state is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average [12] - The rapeseed harvesting progress in Canada is high, and the export volume increased in the week ending October 26th, but decreased compared to the same period last year [12] - India's soybean meal exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 11% [13] - The Baltic Dry Index declined, with different types of ships showing varying price trends [14] 国内供需 - On October 31st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 26% compared to the previous trading day [16] - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased [16] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 44th week was lower than expected [16] - The pig - raising profit improved, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 31st [16][17] Macro News International News - A Fed official believes that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week or in December [19] - Analysts' forecasts for oil prices remain largely unchanged, and OPEC+ may slightly increase its oil production target or pause production increases [19][20] Domestic News - On October 31st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank achieved a net investment through reverse repurchase operations [22] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list option contracts for soybean meal and corn futures [22] Fund Flows - On October 31st, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.226 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net outflow of 2.724 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 6.722 billion yuan, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [25] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, rather than the anticipated 50 basis points, is expected to support a rebound in the US dollar while putting pressure on Asian currencies in the short term. Additionally, the recent surge in technology stocks may face profit-taking and a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trend [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in nine months aligns with market expectations, with the median forecast in the FOMC dot plot indicating three rate cuts this year and one more next year [1][2]. - The dot plot reveals a division among Fed officials, with 7 expecting no further cuts this year and 2 supporting only one more cut, suggesting a potential stalemate on future rate decisions [2]. Market Reactions - Analysts from Wells Fargo and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank noted that the strong dollar is likely to affect Asian currencies, with high-beta currencies such as the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah being particularly sensitive [3]. - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar initially faced selling pressure but rebounded as traders adjusted their positions based on the expectation of only one more rate cut next year [3]. Economic Outlook - Despite the potential for the dollar to rise to 147 yen, there remains a strong bearish sentiment towards the dollar, which may limit its upward potential [4]. - Analysts from TD Securities and VanEck expressed a bearish outlook on the dollar, viewing any technical rebounds as opportunities to short, while highlighting that economic growth outside the US appears stronger [5]. Future Considerations - The overall market response to the Fed's decision is expected to be muted, with potential for a pullback in the coming days as investors seek new catalysts for market highs [4]. - The upcoming US-China trade negotiations are anticipated to be a significant focus for market participants, potentially influencing market dynamics [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather forecasts, international supply - demand data, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and trading volumes. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities like palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysia palm oil 11 was 4422.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.74% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index and various currency exchange rates against the US dollar are given, along with their percentage changes [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China was 9460, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: The future weather outlook (September 8 - 12) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or higher than normal. The Midwest will have local or sporadic precipitation and lower temperatures [3][5]. - **国际供需**: - Reuters survey predicts Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand in different fiscal years are given. For example, Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be adjusted up to 19.3 million tons [8]. - USDA reports a private exporter's sale of 185,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Dutch Cooperative Bank expects Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1.5% compared to the previous year, and Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans [9]. - Information on soybean sales in Argentina, including cumulative sales and sales to different sectors (domestic oil mills and export industries), is provided [10]. - Forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU 27 + UK, Australia, and Germany are presented. For example, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed production is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous forecast [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index fell to a nearly two - week low due to the decline in freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [11]. - On September 3, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased to 65.11% [12]. 04 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻**: - According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6% [14]. - US economic data such as JOLTs job openings, factory orders, retail sales, mortgage application activity, and API crude oil inventory are reported [14]. - OPEC + will consider further increasing oil production at a Sunday meeting, but may also suspend the increase. The final decision has not been made [15]. - Eurozone economic data such as PPI and services PMI are presented [15]. - **国内要闻**: - On September 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1108, up 19 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [17]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [17]. 05 资金流向 On September 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.763 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.08 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 12.843 billion yuan [19]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Indonesia's economy showed strong performance in Q2, with GDP growth exceeding expectations driven by investment, household spending, and export growth [1] - The central bank expects the full-year economic growth for 2025 to be above the midpoint of the target range of 4.6% to 5.4%, with improved growth momentum anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Despite global economic pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs affecting global trade, Indonesia's economy demonstrates resilience [1] Group 2 - Inflation remains low, with July's inflation rate indicating that core inflation is expected to stay within target ranges, reflecting significant domestic capacity and manageable import inflation risks [1] - The central bank maintains its expectation for low inflation rates in 2025 and 2026, aligning with targets [1] - The central bank has cut policy rates by 100 basis points since September of the previous year, emphasizing the need for commercial banks to lower loan rates to support credit expansion and economic growth [1][2] Group 3 - The central bank has actively purchased government bonds to enhance market liquidity, with a total purchase amounting to 186.06 trillion Indonesian Rupiah as of August 19 [2] - The central bank is adjusting liquidity management tools, as indicated by a significant decrease in the outstanding balance of Indonesian Rupiah Securities (SRBI) from 916.97 trillion Rupiah at the beginning of 2025 to 720.01 trillion Rupiah by August 15 [2] - The Indonesian Rupiah has shown strength, supported by capital inflows and export revenue conversion, with the central bank implementing a "triple intervention" strategy to maintain exchange rate stability [2] Group 4 - The central bank maintains its current account deficit forecast for 2025 at 0.5% to 1.3% of GDP, with Q2's current account deficit remaining at a low level, indicating a robust external balance [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil report is bearish due to a significant increase in production and higher-than-expected ending inventory [20]. - The USDA May soybean report is bullish as the estimated ending inventory for the 25/26 season is lower than market expectations [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - The closing price of Malaysian palm oil 08 (BMD) was 3948.00, with a previous-day decline of 1.44% and an overnight decline of 0.36% [1]. - The closing price of Brent 08 (ICE) was 65.61, with a previous-day increase of 0.75% and an overnight decline of -0.18% [1]. - The closing price of US crude oil 07 (NYMEX) was 63.34, with a previous-day increase of 0.48% and an overnight decline of -0.61% [1]. - The closing price of US soybeans 07 (CBOT) was 1041.00, with a previous-day increase of 0.63% and an overnight decline of -0.22% [1]. - The closing price of US soybean meal 07 (CBOT) was 294.30, with a previous-day decline of -0.07% and an overnight decline of -0.03% [1]. - The closing price of US soybean oil 07 (CBOT) was 46.81, with a previous-day increase of 1.25% and an overnight decline of -0.04% [1]. - The latest price of the US Dollar Index was 99.25, with an increase of 0.55% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) was 7.1869, with an increase of 0.03% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR/USD) was 4.2531, with an increase of 0.25% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR/USD) was 16223, with a decline of -0.42% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Brazilian Real (BRL/USD) was 5.6621, with a decline of -0.01% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Argentine Peso (ARS/USD) was 1184.000, with an increase of 0.34% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Singapore Dollar (SGD/USD) was 1.2866, with a decline of -0.11% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in East China was 8630, with a basis of 400 and a daily basis change of -50; in South China, it was 8600, with a basis of 370 and a daily basis change of -30 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 7970, with a basis of 274 and a daily basis change of 0; in Jiangsu, it was 8000, with a basis of 304 and a daily basis change of 0; in Guangdong, it was 7980, with a basis of 284 and a daily basis change of 0; in Tianjin, it was 7910, with a basis of 214 and a daily basis change of 20 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2800, with a basis of -151 and a daily basis change of -46; in Jiangsu, it was 2800, with a basis of -151 and a daily basis change of -6; in Guangdong, it was 2790, with a basis of -161 and a daily basis change of -16; in Tianjin, it was 2870, with a basis of -81 and a daily basis change of -46 [2]. - The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans was 160 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 439 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - From June 8 - 12, most of the major soybean-producing states in the US are expected to have above-average rainfall, and the central region will have lower temperatures [3]. - The weather in the northern part of the US Midwest is favorable, while the weather in the southern part may hinder planting [5]. - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 1.9%, oil extraction rate increased by 0.3%, and production increased by 3.53% [6]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [7]. - SGS estimated that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the previous month [7]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month-on-month to 118 tons, the highest in five months [7]. - As of May 30, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.11 per bushel, a 1% decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of May 31, the harvest rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 99.8% [8]. - StoneX estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season would be 1.6825 billion tons, the second-season corn production would be 1.061 billion tons, and the total corn production would be 1.34 billion tons [8]. - IMEA reported that the expected soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 13.0082 million hectares, with a 1.67% increase from the previous year; the expected yield per hectare was 60.45 bags, a decrease of 8.81%; and the expected production was 47.1844 million tons, a decrease of 7.29% [9]. - As of June 1, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 2.63 million tons, soybeans were 12.94 million tons, soybean meal was 17.68 million tons, and rapeseed was 6.4 million tons [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, supported by the freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [10]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On June 3, the trading volume of soybean oil was 7000 tons, palm oil was 660 tons, and the total trading volume was 7660 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous trading day [12]. - On June 3, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 5.58 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 3.58 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous day, and the far-month basis trading volume was 2.00 tons, an increase of 2.00 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 65.33%, an increase of 2.58% from the previous day [12]. - As of May 30, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key domestic regions was 188.79 tons, an increase of 8.61 tons or 4.78% from the previous week [13]. - As of May 30, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 36.4 tons, an increase of 2.53 tons or 7.47% from the previous week, and a decrease of 1.95 tons or 5.08% from the same period last year [13]. - As of May 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 75.49 tons, an increase of 5.77 tons or 8.28% from the previous week [13]. - As of June 3, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 574.083 tons, an increase of 7.015 tons from May 26; the port inventory of soybean oil was 71.4 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons from the previous week [13]. - On June 3, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.73, a decrease of 0.42 points from before the holiday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.89, a decrease of 0.49 points from before the holiday [14]. 04 Macroeconomic News - **International News** - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 98.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [17]. - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3% [17]. - The US factory orders in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month, worse than the expected - 3.1% [18]. - The number of job openings in the US in April was 7.391 million, higher than the expected 7.1 million [18]. - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rate in 2025 and 2026 would be 2.9%, a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage - point decrease from the March forecast [18]. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending May 30 decreased by 3.3 million barrels, more than the expected - 0.9 million barrels [18]. - The preliminary Eurozone CPI in May was flat month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [18]. - The Eurozone unemployment rate in April was 6.2% [18]. - **Domestic News** - On June 3, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1869, up 21 points [19]. - On June 3, the People's Bank of China conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [19]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [19]. - In May, the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October last year [19]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report showed that the ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% to 1.686 million tons, exports increased by 9.62% to 1.102 million tons, imports decreased by 52.17% to 0.058 million tons, and consumption decreased by 24.69% to 0.339 million tons. The report was bearish [20]. - The USDA May soybean report increased the 24/25 US soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was lowered to 0.35 billion bushels. For the 25/26 season, the expected yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, production was 4.34 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 0.295 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. The report was bullish [21]. 06 Capital Flows - On June 3, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 17.17 billion yuan, including 12.004 billion yuan into commodity futures (1.332 billion yuan into agricultural product futures, 1.699 billion yuan into chemical futures, 0.774 billion yuan into black - series futures, and 8.199 billion yuan into metal futures) and 5.166 billion yuan into stock index futures [24].

Group 1 - The central bank of Indonesia has lowered interest rates as expected, impacting the Indonesian rupiah which has depreciated against the US dollar [1] - The latest exchange rate shows the rupiah down by 0.1% to 16,418 per US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian rupiah has appreciated by 0.7% against the US dollar, reaching a value of 16,390 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a strengthening of the Indonesian currency in the foreign exchange market [1]