展望2026年，印尼卢比更可能维持区间震荡格局，而非呈现单边走势。一方面，美元周期尚未完全转 向、地缘与政策不确定性犹存，制约其持续升值空间；另一方面，印尼相对稳健的宏观经济基本面、审 慎灵活的货币政策框架以及充足的外汇储备，为汇率稳定提供了有力支撑，系统性失序风险总体可控。 外部冲击频仍 2025年印尼卢比经受压力测试 新华财经雅加达1月12日电（记者冯钰林）2025年，在全球金融环境不确定性加剧、主要经济体货币政 策显著分化的背景下，印尼卢比经历了一轮对新兴市场韧性的现实压力测试。全年美元兑印尼卢比汇率 虽呈现阶段性波动，但未演变为趋势性失序，反映出外部冲击与国内基本面支撑之间的动态博弈。 2025年，美元兑印尼卢比全年累计上涨2.74%。印尼卢比在亚洲主要新兴市场货币中表现偏弱，但未出 现失控式下跌。据市场统计，2025年美元兑印尼卢比汇率在15785至16974区间内波动，年内最大振幅接 近11%。星展银行与三菱日联银行在年度报告中指出，尽管印尼卢比相对疲软，其汇率波动整体处于有 序、可控范围内。 官方数据显示，2025年一季度印尼GDP同比增长4.87%，二季度回升至5.12%，三季度小幅回落至 5 ...

| | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4042. 00 | -0. 93 | -0. 17 | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 61.26 | 1.54 | -0.42 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 57.83 | 1.58 | -0. 50 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1063. 75 | -0. 75 | -0. 33 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 303. 50 | -1.27 | -0. 39 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.26 | 0.12 | -0. 18 | 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美豆当周出口检验量为750,312吨 CONAB巴西大豆收割率为0.1% 20251230 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月30日 07:37 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 02 | 0. 01 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0331 | -0. 04 ...

【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕12月前25日产量环比减 9.12% 阿根廷25/26年大豆种植率为77% 20251229 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月29日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4087. 00 | 1.29 | | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 60. 33 | -2.44 | -1. 45 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 56.93 | -2. 52 | -1.64 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1071. 75 | -0. 37 | -0. 79 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 307. 40 | -0. 19 | -0. 90 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.20 | -0. 63 | -0. 47 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 01 | 0. 10 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0358 | -0. ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月1日电印尼央行承诺在促进经济增长的同时优先维护货币稳定。分析师指出，此举有 望在该国资产遭投资者回避之际，为印尼卢比提供支撑。 Gama Asset Management全球宏观投资组合经理Rajeev称，这一承诺是"一个重要的声明"。他指出，尽管 经济增长乏力，央行仍明显加强了对货币稳定的重视，此举被视为对印尼卢比走弱的回应，也标志着其 货币政策立场正从鸽派转向更为审慎。 印尼央行行长Perry Warjiyo表示："展望2026年，在全球不确定性持续高企的背景下，货币政策仍将致 力于平衡稳定与增长。"他补充说，央行将继续通过在境内外市场进行干预，以维护货币稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 35th day, tying the record for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if the shutdown lasts for 4 weeks, the annual GDP growth rate could decline by approximately 1 to 2 percentage points, resulting in an economic loss of about $7 billion [1] - If the shutdown extends to 6 weeks, the economic loss is projected to increase to $11 billion, and if it reaches 8 weeks, the loss could be as high as $14 billion [1] Group 2 - Despite the economic pressures from the government shutdown, the U.S. dollar index surpassed the 100 mark during Asian trading hours, marking the first time since August 1 [1] - The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, reaching a high of 154.48, the highest level since mid-February [1] - Following comments from Japan's Finance Minister regarding market volatility, the yen temporarily rebounded to 153.49 [1] Group 3 - The euro fell by 0.15% against the dollar, touching the 1.15 level, while the Singapore dollar dropped to 1.3070, the lowest since May 12 [2] - The Indonesian rupiah also declined by 0.5% to 16,733, marking a new low since September 26 [2] - The Indian rupee experienced a rebound after suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, rising by 0.4% to 88.3925, the largest single-day gain since October 15 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking [1][3][6][18][23][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented, along with the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from November 5th to 9th shows that temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be near or below the median [6] - In the US Midwest, sporadic showers may disrupt early - November harvesting or other field operations, with variable weather and limited precipitation [8] - In central Brazil, showers have restarted, and more extensive rainfall is expected this week, which may affect soybean crop germination and early growth [9] 进出口及产量数据 - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% month - on - month, while ITS reported a 5.19% increase [10] - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November slightly higher than in October, with export taxes remaining unchanged [10] - The USDA may release several major agricultural reports in November, and analysts expect US soybean crushing volume in September to reach a record high [10][11] - The amount of soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US in August decreased compared to July [11] - The soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso state is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average [12] - The rapeseed harvesting progress in Canada is high, and the export volume increased in the week ending October 26th, but decreased compared to the same period last year [12] - India's soybean meal exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 11% [13] - The Baltic Dry Index declined, with different types of ships showing varying price trends [14] 国内供需 - On October 31st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 26% compared to the previous trading day [16] - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased [16] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 44th week was lower than expected [16] - The pig - raising profit improved, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 31st [16][17] Macro News International News - A Fed official believes that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week or in December [19] - Analysts' forecasts for oil prices remain largely unchanged, and OPEC+ may slightly increase its oil production target or pause production increases [19][20] Domestic News - On October 31st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank achieved a net investment through reverse repurchase operations [22] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list option contracts for soybean meal and corn futures [22] Fund Flows - On October 31st, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.226 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net outflow of 2.724 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 6.722 billion yuan, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [25] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, rather than the anticipated 50 basis points, is expected to support a rebound in the US dollar while putting pressure on Asian currencies in the short term. Additionally, the recent surge in technology stocks may face profit-taking and a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trend [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in nine months aligns with market expectations, with the median forecast in the FOMC dot plot indicating three rate cuts this year and one more next year [1][2]. - The dot plot reveals a division among Fed officials, with 7 expecting no further cuts this year and 2 supporting only one more cut, suggesting a potential stalemate on future rate decisions [2]. Market Reactions - Analysts from Wells Fargo and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank noted that the strong dollar is likely to affect Asian currencies, with high-beta currencies such as the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah being particularly sensitive [3]. - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar initially faced selling pressure but rebounded as traders adjusted their positions based on the expectation of only one more rate cut next year [3]. Economic Outlook - Despite the potential for the dollar to rise to 147 yen, there remains a strong bearish sentiment towards the dollar, which may limit its upward potential [4]. - Analysts from TD Securities and VanEck expressed a bearish outlook on the dollar, viewing any technical rebounds as opportunities to short, while highlighting that economic growth outside the US appears stronger [5]. Future Considerations - The overall market response to the Fed's decision is expected to be muted, with potential for a pullback in the coming days as investors seek new catalysts for market highs [4]. - The upcoming US-China trade negotiations are anticipated to be a significant focus for market participants, potentially influencing market dynamics [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather forecasts, international supply - demand data, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and trading volumes. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities like palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysia palm oil 11 was 4422.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.74% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index and various currency exchange rates against the US dollar are given, along with their percentage changes [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China was 9460, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: The future weather outlook (September 8 - 12) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or higher than normal. The Midwest will have local or sporadic precipitation and lower temperatures [3][5]. - **国际供需**: - Reuters survey predicts Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand in different fiscal years are given. For example, Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be adjusted up to 19.3 million tons [8]. - USDA reports a private exporter's sale of 185,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Dutch Cooperative Bank expects Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1.5% compared to the previous year, and Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans [9]. - Information on soybean sales in Argentina, including cumulative sales and sales to different sectors (domestic oil mills and export industries), is provided [10]. - Forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU 27 + UK, Australia, and Germany are presented. For example, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed production is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous forecast [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index fell to a nearly two - week low due to the decline in freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [11]. - On September 3, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased to 65.11% [12]. 04 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻**: - According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6% [14]. - US economic data such as JOLTs job openings, factory orders, retail sales, mortgage application activity, and API crude oil inventory are reported [14]. - OPEC + will consider further increasing oil production at a Sunday meeting, but may also suspend the increase. The final decision has not been made [15]. - Eurozone economic data such as PPI and services PMI are presented [15]. - **国内要闻**: - On September 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1108, up 19 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [17]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [17]. 05 资金流向 On September 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.763 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.08 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 12.843 billion yuan [19]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.