Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

智通财经APP获悉，北京时间周四凌晨美联储宣布降息25个基点之后，华尔街分析师们普遍表示，美联 储仅降息25个基点而非一些交易员押注的50基点的决定，以及美联储对于2026年利率路径的谨慎预期， 将有助于强劲支撑在今年多数时间段持续疲软的美元反弹，并有可能促使亚洲各国货币汇率在短期内剧 烈承压，并且表示近期涨势如虹的科技股可能面临获利了结以及"买预期卖事实"的下行趋势。 分析人士们普遍表示，美联储降息的这一最新决定反而将有助于支撑美元并对亚洲各国货币造成压力。 华尔街金融巨头富国银行在美联储宣布降息决议后表示，美联储宣布降息25基点之后的美元走强是广泛 性的，亚洲货币不太可能逃脱这一影响。三井住友信托银行表示，美元可能延续涨势至1美元兑147日 元，尽管市场对美元的长期悲观情绪可能限制其上行空间。 由于 FOMC 预计在年内再降息两次，公告发布后美元一度遭到抛售，但"美元随后被市场交易员们大幅 回补，因为市场预期明年只会降息一次，而且美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会发言被解读为略偏鹰 派"。 "尽管美元兑日元可能顺着当前趋势升至147日元水平，但对未来降息的预期仍然令美元多头市场承压， 而对美元的悲观情绪依然强烈 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather forecasts, international supply - demand data, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and trading volumes. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities like palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysia palm oil 11 was 4422.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.74% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index and various currency exchange rates against the US dollar are given, along with their percentage changes [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China was 9460, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: The future weather outlook (September 8 - 12) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or higher than normal. The Midwest will have local or sporadic precipitation and lower temperatures [3][5]. - **国际供需**: - Reuters survey predicts Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand in different fiscal years are given. For example, Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be adjusted up to 19.3 million tons [8]. - USDA reports a private exporter's sale of 185,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Dutch Cooperative Bank expects Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1.5% compared to the previous year, and Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans [9]. - Information on soybean sales in Argentina, including cumulative sales and sales to different sectors (domestic oil mills and export industries), is provided [10]. - Forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU 27 + UK, Australia, and Germany are presented. For example, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed production is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous forecast [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index fell to a nearly two - week low due to the decline in freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [11]. - On September 3, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased to 65.11% [12]. 04 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻**: - According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6% [14]. - US economic data such as JOLTs job openings, factory orders, retail sales, mortgage application activity, and API crude oil inventory are reported [14]. - OPEC + will consider further increasing oil production at a Sunday meeting, but may also suspend the increase. The final decision has not been made [15]. - Eurozone economic data such as PPI and services PMI are presented [15]. - **国内要闻**: - On September 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1108, up 19 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [17]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [17]. 05 资金流向 On September 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.763 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.08 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 12.843 billion yuan [19]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Indonesia's economy showed strong performance in Q2, with GDP growth exceeding expectations driven by investment, household spending, and export growth [1] - The central bank expects the full-year economic growth for 2025 to be above the midpoint of the target range of 4.6% to 5.4%, with improved growth momentum anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Despite global economic pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs affecting global trade, Indonesia's economy demonstrates resilience [1] Group 2 - Inflation remains low, with July's inflation rate indicating that core inflation is expected to stay within target ranges, reflecting significant domestic capacity and manageable import inflation risks [1] - The central bank maintains its expectation for low inflation rates in 2025 and 2026, aligning with targets [1] - The central bank has cut policy rates by 100 basis points since September of the previous year, emphasizing the need for commercial banks to lower loan rates to support credit expansion and economic growth [1][2] Group 3 - The central bank has actively purchased government bonds to enhance market liquidity, with a total purchase amounting to 186.06 trillion Indonesian Rupiah as of August 19 [2] - The central bank is adjusting liquidity management tools, as indicated by a significant decrease in the outstanding balance of Indonesian Rupiah Securities (SRBI) from 916.97 trillion Rupiah at the beginning of 2025 to 720.01 trillion Rupiah by August 15 [2] - The Indonesian Rupiah has shown strength, supported by capital inflows and export revenue conversion, with the central bank implementing a "triple intervention" strategy to maintain exchange rate stability [2] Group 4 - The central bank maintains its current account deficit forecast for 2025 at 0.5% to 1.3% of GDP, with Q2's current account deficit remaining at a low level, indicating a robust external balance [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil report is bearish due to a significant increase in production and higher-than-expected ending inventory [20]. - The USDA May soybean report is bullish as the estimated ending inventory for the 25/26 season is lower than market expectations [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - The closing price of Malaysian palm oil 08 (BMD) was 3948.00, with a previous-day decline of 1.44% and an overnight decline of 0.36% [1]. - The closing price of Brent 08 (ICE) was 65.61, with a previous-day increase of 0.75% and an overnight decline of -0.18% [1]. - The closing price of US crude oil 07 (NYMEX) was 63.34, with a previous-day increase of 0.48% and an overnight decline of -0.61% [1]. - The closing price of US soybeans 07 (CBOT) was 1041.00, with a previous-day increase of 0.63% and an overnight decline of -0.22% [1]. - The closing price of US soybean meal 07 (CBOT) was 294.30, with a previous-day decline of -0.07% and an overnight decline of -0.03% [1]. - The closing price of US soybean oil 07 (CBOT) was 46.81, with a previous-day increase of 1.25% and an overnight decline of -0.04% [1]. - The latest price of the US Dollar Index was 99.25, with an increase of 0.55% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) was 7.1869, with an increase of 0.03% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR/USD) was 4.2531, with an increase of 0.25% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR/USD) was 16223, with a decline of -0.42% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Brazilian Real (BRL/USD) was 5.6621, with a decline of -0.01% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Argentine Peso (ARS/USD) was 1184.000, with an increase of 0.34% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Singapore Dollar (SGD/USD) was 1.2866, with a decline of -0.11% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in East China was 8630, with a basis of 400 and a daily basis change of -50; in South China, it was 8600, with a basis of 370 and a daily basis change of -30 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 7970, with a basis of 274 and a daily basis change of 0; in Jiangsu, it was 8000, with a basis of 304 and a daily basis change of 0; in Guangdong, it was 7980, with a basis of 284 and a daily basis change of 0; in Tianjin, it was 7910, with a basis of 214 and a daily basis change of 20 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2800, with a basis of -151 and a daily basis change of -46; in Jiangsu, it was 2800, with a basis of -151 and a daily basis change of -6; in Guangdong, it was 2790, with a basis of -161 and a daily basis change of -16; in Tianjin, it was 2870, with a basis of -81 and a daily basis change of -46 [2]. - The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans was 160 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 439 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - From June 8 - 12, most of the major soybean-producing states in the US are expected to have above-average rainfall, and the central region will have lower temperatures [3]. - The weather in the northern part of the US Midwest is favorable, while the weather in the southern part may hinder planting [5]. - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 1.9%, oil extraction rate increased by 0.3%, and production increased by 3.53% [6]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [7]. - SGS estimated that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the previous month [7]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month-on-month to 118 tons, the highest in five months [7]. - As of May 30, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.11 per bushel, a 1% decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of May 31, the harvest rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 99.8% [8]. - StoneX estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season would be 1.6825 billion tons, the second-season corn production would be 1.061 billion tons, and the total corn production would be 1.34 billion tons [8]. - IMEA reported that the expected soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 13.0082 million hectares, with a 1.67% increase from the previous year; the expected yield per hectare was 60.45 bags, a decrease of 8.81%; and the expected production was 47.1844 million tons, a decrease of 7.29% [9]. - As of June 1, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 2.63 million tons, soybeans were 12.94 million tons, soybean meal was 17.68 million tons, and rapeseed was 6.4 million tons [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, supported by the freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [10]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On June 3, the trading volume of soybean oil was 7000 tons, palm oil was 660 tons, and the total trading volume was 7660 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous trading day [12]. - On June 3, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 5.58 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 3.58 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous day, and the far-month basis trading volume was 2.00 tons, an increase of 2.00 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 65.33%, an increase of 2.58% from the previous day [12]. - As of May 30, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key domestic regions was 188.79 tons, an increase of 8.61 tons or 4.78% from the previous week [13]. - As of May 30, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 36.4 tons, an increase of 2.53 tons or 7.47% from the previous week, and a decrease of 1.95 tons or 5.08% from the same period last year [13]. - As of May 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 75.49 tons, an increase of 5.77 tons or 8.28% from the previous week [13]. - As of June 3, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 574.083 tons, an increase of 7.015 tons from May 26; the port inventory of soybean oil was 71.4 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons from the previous week [13]. - On June 3, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.73, a decrease of 0.42 points from before the holiday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.89, a decrease of 0.49 points from before the holiday [14]. 04 Macroeconomic News - **International News** - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 98.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [17]. - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3% [17]. - The US factory orders in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month, worse than the expected - 3.1% [18]. - The number of job openings in the US in April was 7.391 million, higher than the expected 7.1 million [18]. - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rate in 2025 and 2026 would be 2.9%, a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage - point decrease from the March forecast [18]. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending May 30 decreased by 3.3 million barrels, more than the expected - 0.9 million barrels [18]. - The preliminary Eurozone CPI in May was flat month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [18]. - The Eurozone unemployment rate in April was 6.2% [18]. - **Domestic News** - On June 3, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1869, up 21 points [19]. - On June 3, the People's Bank of China conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [19]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [19]. - In May, the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October last year [19]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report showed that the ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% to 1.686 million tons, exports increased by 9.62% to 1.102 million tons, imports decreased by 52.17% to 0.058 million tons, and consumption decreased by 24.69% to 0.339 million tons. The report was bearish [20]. - The USDA May soybean report increased the 24/25 US soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was lowered to 0.35 billion bushels. For the 25/26 season, the expected yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, production was 4.34 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 0.295 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. The report was bullish [21]. 06 Capital Flows - On June 3, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 17.17 billion yuan, including 12.004 billion yuan into commodity futures (1.332 billion yuan into agricultural product futures, 1.699 billion yuan into chemical futures, 0.774 billion yuan into black - series futures, and 8.199 billion yuan into metal futures) and 5.166 billion yuan into stock index futures [24].

Group 1 - The central bank of Indonesia has lowered interest rates as expected, impacting the Indonesian rupiah which has depreciated against the US dollar [1] - The latest exchange rate shows the rupiah down by 0.1% to 16,418 per US dollar [1]

印尼卢比兑美元上涨0.7%至16,390。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in global financial markets, industrial supply - demand, and macroeconomic news during the 2025 May Day holiday, covering commodities, currencies, and key economic indicators in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 May Day Foreign Market Changes - **Commodity Prices**: During the May Day holiday, there were fluctuations in various commodity prices. For example, BMD palm oil fell 2.12%, NYMEX crude oil dropped 4.74%, and COMEX gold rose 1.77%. The dollar index rose 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Index increased 1.71%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.95% [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The Argentine peso against the US dollar had a 2.33% decline, while other major currencies like the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah remained stable against the US dollar [2]. 2025 May Day Industrial Supply - Demand - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's April palm oil production is expected to increase, with different institutions' data showing growth ranging from 14.74% to 24.62%. Export data from different institutions vary, with some showing an increase and others a decrease. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in May, and India's palm oil imports in April decreased by 24% [3][4][5]. - **Soybeans**: As of April 29, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, a 6% reduction from the previous week. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than expected. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 1.684 billion tons [6][7][10]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 21.6% in the week ending April 27, and Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 620,000 tons [13]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Agricultural Products**: On April 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 85% compared to the previous trading day. The opening rate of domestic oil mills decreased by 0.49%, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" dropped 0.27 points [15]. 2025 May Day Macroeconomic News - **International News** - **US Economy**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May is 97.3%. The US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate was 3.5%, and the Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was - 0.3%. The April non - farm payrolls were 177,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% [16][17]. - **OPEC**: OPEC's April oil production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.724 million barrels per day. OPEC + plans to increase production in June and possibly again in July [19]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate was 1.2%, the April CPI annual rate was 2.2%, and the May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [19][20]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On April 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.2014, down 15 points. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 422.8 billion yuan [22]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's April manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Asian currencies are experiencing a strong appreciation against the US dollar, driven by factors such as improved global market risk appetite, significant holdings of dollar assets by Asian exporters and insurers, and a slowdown in the US economy [1][2][3] - The offshore RMB has seen a substantial increase, with a rise of over 600 basis points on May 2 and more than 100 basis points on May 5, reaching a five-month high [2] - The New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated nearly 7% against the US dollar in recent trading days, marking its highest level since February 2023 [2] Group 2 - Global investors are adjusting their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar, with non-US investors holding approximately $22 trillion in US assets, which constitutes about one-third of their total investment portfolio [3] - The performance of US tech stocks remains robust, but many companies express concerns about future prospects, leading investors to sell off US stocks at high prices [3] - The significant drop in oil prices has reduced import costs for Asian countries, potentially expanding trade surpluses and further supporting the appreciation of Asian currencies [3][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the long-term downtrend of the US dollar is unlikely to reverse fundamentally, with weakened confidence in US assets and limited potential for dollar rebounds [4][5] - The ongoing fiscal and current account deficits in the US are seen as constraints on the dollar's strength, while foreign investors are reducing their holdings of US assets [5] - The global rebalancing of asset allocation may just be beginning, as non-US governments are likely to stimulate their economies through fiscal policies, promoting capital repatriation [5]