Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, net income was $2.1 million, or $0.03 per share, an increase compared to the same period in 2024, driven by higher interest income and lower interest expenses [29] - Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) was $2.3 million, or $0.05 per weighted average share, which was lower than the same period in 2024 [29] - Interest expense decreased by $2.4 million due to a reduction in debt of $189.4 million in Q4 2024 [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fixed farm rent decreased due to property dispositions in 2024, while solar, wind, and recreation revenues increased due to a solar lease arrangement [32] - Management fees and interest income rose due to increased loan issuances under the FPI loan program [32] - Direct operations revenue increased due to higher walnut prices, offset by increased costs for water and maintenance [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio's NAV is estimated to be in the mid-$14 range, reflecting a decrease due to dividend payouts [19] - The market for row crop land values remains stable, with no significant frothiness observed [45] - California land values are not recovering, with some capitulation among sellers indicating potential market stabilization [16][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue selective capital deployment, focusing on small acquisitions and loan programs [27] - There is an emphasis on stock buybacks due to the perceived undervaluation of the company's shares compared to farmland values [52] - The company aims to maintain liquidity and flexibility in capital deployment strategies [62] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term value of farmland, particularly in the context of global food demand and population growth [26] - The potential impact of tariffs on the agricultural market was discussed, with management noting that while there may be short-term pressures, long-term fundamentals remain strong [7][11] - The company anticipates modest rent increases in the row crop segment, reflecting a pause in rental growth [9] Other Important Information - The company won part of a legal case in Texas, which may have implications for future operations [13] - A compensation advisory vote did not pass, attributed to ISS recommendations, which management believes were misinformed [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on the amortization of the FPI loan points? - Management indicated that approximately $2.4 million is expected to be recognized as amortization of points income for the year [40] Question: Is the increase in solar, wind, and recreational rent recurring? - Management clarified that while the arrangement with a solar tenant is recurring, it may not be at the same scale as the current year [42] Question: How have cap rates moved year-to-date? - Management noted that cap rates for row crop land values are stable, with no significant changes observed [45] Question: What is the company's stance on stock buybacks versus land purchases? - Management expressed a preference for stock buybacks due to the significant discount of the stock price compared to its perceived value [52] Question: How do tariffs affect core row crop assets versus permanent crops? - Management explained that many specialty crops are consumed domestically, which may provide some benefits amid tariff pressures [56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, net income was $2.1 million, or $0.03 per share, an increase compared to the same period in 2024, driven by higher interest income, proceeds from a solar lease, and lower interest expenses [28] - AFFO was $2.3 million, or $0.05 per weighted average share, which was lower than the same period in 2024 [29] - Interest expense decreased by $2.4 million due to a reduction in debt [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fixed farm rent decreased due to property dispositions in 2024, while solar, wind, and recreation revenues increased due to a solar lease arrangement [31] - Management fees and interest income rose due to increased loan issuances under the FPI loan program [31] - Direct operations revenue increased due to higher walnut prices, offset by increased costs for water and maintenance [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio NAV is estimated to be in the mid-$14 range, reflecting a decrease due to dividend payouts [18] - The market for row crop land is stable, with no significant frothiness observed, and high-quality land remains strong [46][49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue selective capital deployment, including small acquisitions and loan programs [26] - The focus remains on maintaining high cash flows and AFFO while considering stock buybacks due to perceived undervaluation [55] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about tariffs and stagflation, noting that while tariffs could impact exports, stagflation historically boosts farmland values [6][11] - The company anticipates modest rent increases in the short term but remains optimistic about long-term demand for agricultural land [9][25] Other Important Information - The company won part of a legal case in Texas, which may have implications for future operations [13] - A compensation advisory vote did not pass, attributed to ISS recommendations, which management believes were incorrect [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the amortization amount for the FPI loan points in Q1? - The company expects to recognize approximately $2.4 million in amortization of points income for the year [39] Question: Is the increase in solar, wind, and recreational rent recurring? - The arrangement with the tenant is recurring but not at the same scale as the current year [41] Question: How were the April 25 debt maturities repaid? - The company drew about $14 million from its line of credit and used operational funds for the remainder [45] Question: How have cap rates moved year-to-date? - Cap rates for row crop land values are stable, with no significant changes observed [46] Question: Will the Farmer Mac facility be renewed? - The company is likely to keep the facility in place for liquidity purposes [63][64]

Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing significant volatility due to concerns over tariffs and the potential for stagflation [1] - Poor ISM Manufacturing PMI data indicates near-term weaknesses for multi-industry stocks [1] Analyst Insights - There is a belief that the current market conditions may lead to investment opportunities, particularly in AME, with potential for initiating a long position [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter earnings of $0.34 per share, which includes $0.06 from Whole Foods related to rents and recoveries, as well as termination payments [44][46] - Same store NOI growth was reported at 4.1%, with the Street retail portion growing 6.8% for the quarter, outperforming suburban assets by over 400 basis points [52][53] - The company achieved a core operating signed not yet open pipeline increase of over 15%, with new leases signed at cash spreads exceeding 50% [41][48] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Street retail segment continued to show strong performance, with double-digit sales growth observed in key markets such as SoHo and M Street [21][24] - The company signed new core leases totaling over $5 million in ABR, with 95% of that income coming from street locations [20] - The leasing velocity and signed not yet open pipeline are both accelerating, with a robust pipeline of over $6 million in additional leases in advanced stages of negotiation [21][48] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer spending has remained resilient, particularly among affluent consumers, with sales growth reported at 15% year-over-year in the Georgetown portfolio [12][24] - The company noted that the affluent consumer demographic is less affected by broader economic indicators, maintaining spending habits despite economic uncertainties [12][22] - The company is seeing increased traction in markets that have been slower to recover, such as San Francisco, with significant leasing activity reported [28][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be a dominant owner-operator of street retail in key corridors, focusing on acquisitions that are accretive to earnings and enhance the portfolio [14][39] - The strategy includes opportunistically adding assets through its investment management platform, leveraging institutional capital relationships [14][39] - The company is well-positioned to navigate market volatility and capitalize on potential buying opportunities in street retail investments [16][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued internal growth driven by strong tenant demand and limited new supply in high-quality locations [5][13] - The company is monitoring inflationary pressures and economic slowdowns but believes that strong demand will mitigate long-term declines [10][12] - Management remains optimistic about achieving 5% to 6% full-year same store NOI growth, supported by a solid balance sheet and liquidity [53][54] Other Important Information - The company completed over $370 million in acquisitions year-to-date, including targeted street retail acquisitions and value-add opportunities [32][34] - The balance sheet remains strong, with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.7 times, allowing for continued investment in growth opportunities [54] - The company has a robust pipeline of pending deals and active negotiations, indicating strong future growth potential [49][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will the signed not yet open (SNO) continue to accelerate and exceed 6% of ABR by year-end 2025? - Management indicated that they expect continued growth in the SNO pipeline, with $3 million expected to roll into the second half of the year [58] Question: Can you discuss opportunistic investing during downturns and the types of sellers? - Management noted that sellers could include institutional investors seeking liquidity or different operating partners, but it is too early to predict specific outcomes [60][62] Question: How has the Street portfolio changed post-COVID in terms of tenant types? - Management highlighted a shift towards healthier retailers, including digitally native brands, replacing legacy retailers, contributing to sustained demand and growth [66] Question: How confident is the company in achieving 10% underlying growth in the Street portfolio? - Management expressed confidence, noting that the majority of the signed not yet open pipeline is from the Street segment, which is expected to drive growth [70] Question: What is the current state of the street retail transaction market? - Management observed a potential reduction in competition as some buyers may pull back, but they remain prepared to capitalize on opportunities [78] Question: How are leasing spreads trending through the balance of the year? - Management indicated that while spreads may vary, they believe their leases are well-positioned relative to the market [81]

Core Insights - Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. reported a net income of $30.7 million for Q1 2025, an increase from $26.1 million in Q1 2024, with basic earnings per share rising to $2.93 from $2.50 [1][21] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $367.8 million, reflecting a 4.2% increase compared to $353.1 million in Q1 2024 [1][22] Financial Performance - The firm experienced a 4.2% increase in revenue, driven by higher advisory fees and increased transaction-based commissions [11][12] - Compensation expenses rose to $227.1 million, a 2.4% increase from the previous year, while non-compensation expenses increased by 3.4% [22] - Pre-tax income for the quarter was $41.4 million, up 10.5% from $37.5 million in the prior year [22] Wealth Management Segment - Wealth Management revenue was $242.0 million, a 1.7% increase year-over-year, although pre-tax income decreased by 10.5% to $67.9 million [8][11] - Assets Under Management (AUM) stood at $48.9 billion, up from $46.6 billion a year ago, despite a slight decrease from recent highs [8][11] Capital Markets Segment - Capital Markets revenue reached $123.3 million, a 10.0% increase compared to the prior year, with a pre-tax loss of $5.1 million, an improvement from a loss of $6.7 million [13][15] - Institutional trading volumes increased during the volatile market conditions, benefiting sales and trading revenues [4][15] Market Conditions and Outlook - The firm noted increased market volatility due to macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade policy changes and inflation concerns, which have affected consumer confidence and capital market activity [2][3] - The firm ended the quarter with record equity levels, positioning itself for future opportunities under new leadership [5][16]

Group 1: Economic Context - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warns that unemployment and inflation are likely to rise due to economic slowdown and tariffs, indicating potential stagflation [2] - Trump's tariffs could lead to a combination of slowing economic growth and increasing inflation, raising concerns for investors [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Dominion Energy is highlighted as a strong investment during stagflation due to its essential service of electricity, with a forward dividend yield of 5.13% and expected EPS growth of 5% to 7% annually [3][6] - Kroger is positioned to benefit from consistent consumer demand for groceries, with its share price rising amid market turbulence, and it has less exposure to international tariffs compared to peers [7][8][9] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is noted for its unique position in the market with approved medications for cystic fibrosis and a new pain medication, suggesting resilience in its share price despite economic challenges [11][13][14]

Market Reaction - Large-cap financial stocks, including American Express, Blackstone, and Ally Financial, experienced significant declines on Monday, with drops of 4.3%, 7.8%, and 5.1% respectively [1] - The broader market downturn was attributed to concerns over President Trump's comments regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, which were perceived as a threat to the Fed's independence and raised inflation risks [2][6] Trade and Economic Concerns - China issued warnings to countries negotiating trade deals with the U.S., complicating the potential for successful agreements, which are crucial for alleviating economic pressures [3][7] - Ongoing tariff policies pose dual risks of recession and inflation, potentially leading to stagflation [4] Federal Reserve's Position - Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated that the Fed would likely maintain a pause on interest rate cuts due to anticipated inflation from tariffs, which could further weaken the economy [5] - The market reacted negatively to Trump's pressure on the Fed, leading to declines in economically sensitive stocks [6][8] Company-Specific Insights - American Express and Ally Financial could face lower lending activity and increased charge-offs in a recessionary scenario, impacting their performance [9] - Blackstone, while having opportunities to deploy its $177 billion in cash, may struggle with exits from existing investments, affecting its dividend payouts [10][11] Analyst Sentiment - All three companies reported earnings that beat estimates, but the outlook from analysts remains mixed, reflecting high uncertainty due to external economic factors [12][13] - Despite the uncertainty, periods of high volatility may present buying opportunities for long-term investors in high-quality stocks like Blackstone and American Express, which are currently trading at discounted prices [14]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock markets are experiencing extreme volatility due to the imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration, which has raised concerns about a potential global trade war and its impact on the U.S. economy [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The baseline tariff of 10% was imposed on all imports starting April 5, 2025, with rates reaching as high as 145% for certain countries like China [2][3]. - The S&P 500 index is currently in correction territory, having declined by 8.6% year to date, and was trading close to bear market levels last week [5]. Group 2: Featured Stocks - A selection of stocks that have provided double-digit returns year to date includes American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK), Exelon Corp. (EXC), CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP), The Progressive Corp. (PGR), and Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO), all carrying a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6]. Group 3: American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK) - AWK is benefiting from contributions from acquired assets and military contracts, with new water and wastewater rates enhancing performance [7]. - The company is expanding its operations through both organic and inorganic initiatives, with 17 pending acquisitions expected to add 24,200 customers [9]. - AWK has projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.6% and 6.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a recent 0.2% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate [10]. Group 4: Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Exelon's investments are aimed at strengthening its transmission and distribution infrastructure, with initiatives in grid modernization expected to enhance service reliability [11]. - The company anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.2% and 6.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [12]. Group 5: CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP is positioned to benefit from increasing electricity demand driven by the electrification of transportation and investments in renewable energy [13]. - The company has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 3.2% and 8%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.6% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 60 days [16]. Group 6: The Progressive Corp. (PGR) - PGR is experiencing growth due to higher premiums and a strong product portfolio, focusing on becoming a one-stop insurance destination [17]. - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for PGR are 16.1% and 10.9%, respectively, with a 1% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last seven days [18]. Group 7: Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) - BRO's growth trajectory is supported by a compelling portfolio and strategic initiatives that enhance its capabilities and geographic reach [19]. - The company has projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 8.4% and 9.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [20].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing extreme volatility in April due to the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with a baseline tariff of 10% on all imports and rates as high as 145% for certain countries like China [1][2] - The S&P 500 index is currently in correction territory, trading almost in bear market zone, with a year-to-date decline of 8.6% [3] Investment Opportunities - Despite the overall market downturn, a handful of S&P 500 stocks have provided double-digit returns year to date, with five recommended stocks carrying a favorable Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy): American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK), Exelon Corp. (EXC), CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP), The Progressive Corp. (PGR), and Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) [4] American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK) - AWK is benefiting from contributions from acquired assets and military contracts, with new water and wastewater rates boosting performance [8] - The company is expanding operations through organic and inorganic initiatives, with 17 pending acquisitions expected to add 24,200 customers [10] - AWK has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.6% and 6.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last seven days [11] Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Exelon's investments are aimed at strengthening its transmission and distribution infrastructure, with initiatives in grid modernization improving operational resilience [12] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.2% and 6.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [13] CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP is positioned to benefit from increasing electricity demand due to the electrification of transportation and investments in renewable energy [14] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 3.2% and 8%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.6% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 60 days [17] The Progressive Corp. (PGR) - PGR is gaining from higher premiums and a strong product portfolio, focusing on becoming a one-stop insurance destination [18] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 16.1% and 10.9%, respectively, for the current year, with a 1% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last seven days [19] Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) - BRO's growth trajectory is driven by organic and inorganic initiatives, enhancing its capabilities and geographic reach [20] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 8.4% and 9.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [22]

11 April 2025 | 9:59PM BST GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagf ...