Alcoa's Financial Performance - Alcoa reported a slightly smaller than expected adjusted loss and a miss on revenue [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was down 14% versus last quarter [1] Factors Impacting Alcoa's Performance - Increased tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts are playing a factor [1] - Tariff costs on higher US imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $50 million sequentially [2] - Trade policy is also impacting guidance [2] Alcoa's Future Prospects - Alcoa has a critical minerals play with gallium that could be in production as early as 2026 [7] - The critical minerals play could be a higher margin business with some pricing power [7] IBM's Performance and AI - IBM met expectations, but people were hoping for more than a meet [4] - Gen AI has been accelerating, but that's still a small part of IBM's business [5] - AI is an important part of the story for many tech names, and if it is not strong or accelerating, it's a problem for the stock [6]

Trade Policy Impact - Tariffs imposed on cattle entering the United States, including a 50% tariff on Brazil, are credited with the improved performance of cattle ranchers [1] Industry Performance - Cattle ranchers are experiencing their best performance in decades [1]

Economic Sentiment & Spending Disparity - Almost two-thirds of Americans believe the US is heading in the wrong direction, largely due to economic concerns [1] - Corporate America reports a sound economy, with resilient consumer spending [2] - Moody's estimates that the top 10% of households drive nearly half of all spending, creating a K-shaped economy reminiscent of the 1980s [3][4] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in managing interest rates due to the spending disparity between the top 10% and the rest of the country [5] - Inflation is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2026, potentially exacerbated by new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico [6] - The Federal Reserve is increasingly concerned about job losses, particularly in the manufacturing sector (car manufacturing, appliances), potentially outweighing inflation concerns [7] Political & Economic Divide - Most Americans think the economy is headed in the wrong direction, with significant partisan divisions (29% of Republicans vs 91% of Democrats) [8] - Partisanship reflects trust in specific ideologies, with non-hardcore supporters noting increased expenses in daily life, leading to shifts in shopping habits [9] - Tariffs disproportionately impact lower and middle-income brackets (under $250,000 per year) [10]

Core Insights - Uno remains the top-selling card game, experiencing growth for nine consecutive quarters, as reported by Mattel [1] - American Girl doll sales have increased for four straight quarters, while sales of Barbie and Polly Pocket have declined [2][7] Financial Performance - Mattel's quarterly sales decreased by 6% year-over-year, and net income fell by 25% due to changes in retailer order methods amid tariffs [3] - The company maintains its full-year sales growth forecast of 1% to 3%, despite third-quarter performance pressures [3][4] Market Trends - Retailers are shifting more orders to the fourth quarter, indicating a strategy to prepare for the holiday season [8] - Mattel has raised prices in response to tariffs but will not consider further increases until 2026, with current prices not negatively impacting consumer demand [5][8] Competitive Landscape - Both Mattel and Hasbro are raising prices due to tariffs, but Mattel has indicated it has reached its price increase limit for the year [5] - Fewer retailers are importing products directly, relying more on Mattel for warehousing and logistics, which provides retailers with flexibility [6]

Group 1 - Executives from General Motors and Ford expressed gratitude to President Trump for the tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty trucks, indicating a positive impact on their stock prices [1] - The tariffs are positioned as a national security measure, with Trump asserting that they strengthen the US economy [2] - The tariffs will impact various vehicle types, including delivery trucks, garbage trucks, public utility trucks, transit buses, school buses, and semi-trucks [2] Group 2 - Prior to the new tariffs, the US had a 15% tariff on light-duty vehicles as part of trade agreements with Japan and the EU [3] - In April, a 25% tariff was imposed on all automobile imports, which was later extended to auto parts in May [3] - Producers are permitted to deduct the value of US components from tariffs on light-duty vehicles assembled in Canada and Mexico [3]

Group 1 - Best Buy (BBY) stock is currently near a buy zone as tensions with China show signs of easing [1] - The retail giant has made efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese imports but remains sensitive to tariff policy changes [1] - If the Trump administration acts quickly on tariffs, Best Buy could benefit significantly [1] Group 2 - Meta Platforms has launched its third generation of smart glasses, with Apple and Google also preparing to enter the market [2] - Retailers are experiencing uncertainty due to Amazon and other retail earnings, with concerns about tariffs affecting summer spending [4] - Best Buy delivered a mixed Q1 report and cut its outlook due to the impact of Trump tariffs [4]

President Donald Trump said the chief executives of General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co called to thank him on Wednesday for putting tariffs on mid- and large-sized trucks, saying their companies stock has soared. ...

Let's stick with earning shares of. It's now taking a hit as retailers delay orders over tariff uncertainty impacts and the current. Joins us now for more.And there we're starting to see it might not be a big stock market issue but a company turning around is saying some retailers are holding back, waiting for clarity. How much of an economic issue might that be. Well, it's a big question, a big missing piece of the jigsaw.When will these tariffs start to flow through to more broadly goods on the shelf. Jon ...

WEG, a Brazilian maker of industrial machinery, expects to offset the impact of US tariffs by the first half of 2026, following a bigger hit than anticipated for the final quarter of this year https://t.co/aohR3m1ysB ...

It was incredibly aggressive. It was totally disproportional to anything that uh the US, the EU or Canada or anybody did because remember these are global measures that the Chinese have put in place to purport to control the movement or export of any item containing certain rare earth from one country to another, right. Even if China is not uh you know one of the parties uh in the agreement.So in Geneva we had an agreement where they would limit their rare earth export controls. they'd keep their retaliator ...