Global Order Transition - The world is in a great transition to a multipolar world, a post-American order [1] - The transition will be messy and unpredictable as America steps back from its role as global insurer [2] - The old rules do not apply anymore, but the new ones have not been written, requiring actions to tackle global problems and build new trade connections [3][4] - Singapore is keen to work with like-minded countries to lay the foundations of the new multilateral architecture [4][6] - Multipolarity itself does not provide a stable framework, and the world should avoid ending up in exclusionary blocks and spheres of influence [11][12] ASEAN and Regional Dynamics - ASEAN has maintained relative peace and avoided major conflicts in Southeast Asia and is indispensable [14][15] - There are plans to accelerate ASEAN integration to become a more attractive and competitive single market [16] - The actions of tariffs have impacted America's standing in Southeast Asia, though America remains the largest investor in the region [17] - All Southeast Asian countries want to maintain good links with America [18] US-China Relations - The US and China relationship is the most consequential and dangerous fault line in international relations [30] - Both countries are looking at potential choke points to use as leverage, leading to a dynamic of mutually assured destruction [30][31] - The world must realize that China will not converge with Western norms and has become a risen power [38][39] - Singapore needs to work with like-minded countries to preserve and reinforce multilateral frameworks [42] Trade and Investment - Singapore is determined to maintain the integrity of its business environment and will not tolerate businesses violating its laws [23][24] - Trade flows are being reconfigured into new patterns, and Singapore is determined to remain at the center of these global patterns [22] - Singapore remains invested in American companies due to leading-edge technologies and dynamism, but continues to look for opportunities around the world [49] - Singapore sees strategic opportunities with Europe and is keen to forge closer links [50][53]

Market Trends - Grocery prices are increasing [1] - Early evidence suggests that tariffs imposed by President Trump are not helping to alleviate rising grocery prices [1] Company Impact - WSJ visited Stew Leonard's to investigate the impact of tariffs on specific items [1] - Stew Leonard's CEO was interviewed regarding the effects of tariffs [1]

Market Overview - Market indexes experienced a downward trend, with the Dow dropping -334 points (-0.71%) after reaching an all-time high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell -35 points (-0.53%) and -213 points (-0.93%) respectively [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index decreased by -1.41% [1] Trade Relations - Ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China have contributed to a "risk-off" sentiment in the market, with the potential for an additional +100% tariff on Chinese imports looming [2] - Recent market surges were largely based on expectations of a trade agreement between the two nations, but uncertainty is now causing concerns about market stability [2] Q3 Earnings Reports - **Tesla** reported mixed Q3 results, with earnings of $0.50 per share, missing expectations by $0.03, and down from $0.72 a year ago. However, revenues of $28.1 billion exceeded expectations of $26.5 billion, with EV credits contributing +40% to profits [3] - **IBM** shares fell -4.8% despite beating earnings expectations with $2.65 per share (expected $2.44) and revenues of $16.3 billion (expected $16.1 billion). Infrastructure growth was +17%, but revenue guidance of +5% for the year was seen as disappointing [4] - **Southwest Airlines** reported a Q3 earnings beat of $0.10 per share but missed revenue expectations with $6.95 billion (expected $6.97 billion). The stock rose +2.5% in late trading, with expectations for record-high operating revenues in Q4 [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - No Weekly Jobless Claims data will be released this week, but Existing Home Sales data is expected to show a slight increase to 4.06 million units from 4.0 million the previous month [6] - Additional earnings reports from companies such as Intel, Ford, American Airlines, and Newmont Mining are anticipated, with a focus on how tariff impacts may affect their performance [7]

Alcoa's Financial Performance - Alcoa reported a slightly smaller than expected adjusted loss and a miss on revenue [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was down 14% versus last quarter [1] Factors Impacting Alcoa's Performance - Increased tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts are playing a factor [1] - Tariff costs on higher US imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $50 million sequentially [2] - Trade policy is also impacting guidance [2] Alcoa's Future Prospects - Alcoa has a critical minerals play with gallium that could be in production as early as 2026 [7] - The critical minerals play could be a higher margin business with some pricing power [7] IBM's Performance and AI - IBM met expectations, but people were hoping for more than a meet [4] - Gen AI has been accelerating, but that's still a small part of IBM's business [5] - AI is an important part of the story for many tech names, and if it is not strong or accelerating, it's a problem for the stock [6]

Trade Policy Impact - Tariffs imposed on cattle entering the United States, including a 50% tariff on Brazil, are credited with the improved performance of cattle ranchers [1] Industry Performance - Cattle ranchers are experiencing their best performance in decades [1]

Economic Sentiment & Spending Disparity - Almost two-thirds of Americans believe the US is heading in the wrong direction, largely due to economic concerns [1] - Corporate America reports a sound economy, with resilient consumer spending [2] - Moody's estimates that the top 10% of households drive nearly half of all spending, creating a K-shaped economy reminiscent of the 1980s [3][4] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in managing interest rates due to the spending disparity between the top 10% and the rest of the country [5] - Inflation is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2026, potentially exacerbated by new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico [6] - The Federal Reserve is increasingly concerned about job losses, particularly in the manufacturing sector (car manufacturing, appliances), potentially outweighing inflation concerns [7] Political & Economic Divide - Most Americans think the economy is headed in the wrong direction, with significant partisan divisions (29% of Republicans vs 91% of Democrats) [8] - Partisanship reflects trust in specific ideologies, with non-hardcore supporters noting increased expenses in daily life, leading to shifts in shopping habits [9] - Tariffs disproportionately impact lower and middle-income brackets (under $250,000 per year) [10]

Core Insights - Uno remains the top-selling card game, experiencing growth for nine consecutive quarters, as reported by Mattel [1] - American Girl doll sales have increased for four straight quarters, while sales of Barbie and Polly Pocket have declined [2][7] Financial Performance - Mattel's quarterly sales decreased by 6% year-over-year, and net income fell by 25% due to changes in retailer order methods amid tariffs [3] - The company maintains its full-year sales growth forecast of 1% to 3%, despite third-quarter performance pressures [3][4] Market Trends - Retailers are shifting more orders to the fourth quarter, indicating a strategy to prepare for the holiday season [8] - Mattel has raised prices in response to tariffs but will not consider further increases until 2026, with current prices not negatively impacting consumer demand [5][8] Competitive Landscape - Both Mattel and Hasbro are raising prices due to tariffs, but Mattel has indicated it has reached its price increase limit for the year [5] - Fewer retailers are importing products directly, relying more on Mattel for warehousing and logistics, which provides retailers with flexibility [6]

Group 1 - Executives from General Motors and Ford expressed gratitude to President Trump for the tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty trucks, indicating a positive impact on their stock prices [1] - The tariffs are positioned as a national security measure, with Trump asserting that they strengthen the US economy [2] - The tariffs will impact various vehicle types, including delivery trucks, garbage trucks, public utility trucks, transit buses, school buses, and semi-trucks [2] Group 2 - Prior to the new tariffs, the US had a 15% tariff on light-duty vehicles as part of trade agreements with Japan and the EU [3] - In April, a 25% tariff was imposed on all automobile imports, which was later extended to auto parts in May [3] - Producers are permitted to deduct the value of US components from tariffs on light-duty vehicles assembled in Canada and Mexico [3]

Group 1 - Best Buy (BBY) stock is currently near a buy zone as tensions with China show signs of easing [1] - The retail giant has made efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese imports but remains sensitive to tariff policy changes [1] - If the Trump administration acts quickly on tariffs, Best Buy could benefit significantly [1] Group 2 - Meta Platforms has launched its third generation of smart glasses, with Apple and Google also preparing to enter the market [2] - Retailers are experiencing uncertainty due to Amazon and other retail earnings, with concerns about tariffs affecting summer spending [4] - Best Buy delivered a mixed Q1 report and cut its outlook due to the impact of Trump tariffs [4]

President Donald Trump said the chief executives of General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co called to thank him on Wednesday for putting tariffs on mid- and large-sized trucks, saying their companies stock has soared. ...