国内国际双循环

Search documents
政治局会议系列五:弱化风险,关注内需政策发力
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:17
期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-07-31 弱化风险,关注内需政策发力 ——政治局会议系列五 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号:F0299877 投资咨询号:Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议,决定召开二十届四中全会,分析研究当前经济形 势和经济工作。 核心观点 ■ 总体判断:经济良好,质量成效 经济判断:经济运行定调积极。下半年经济发展工作要求"巩固"和"拓展"。 经济工作:下半年宏观政策总体保持延续性。关注全球经济政策之间的协同性,以及 中美经贸谈判的相对积极的可能性。 宏观政策:政策从"用好用足"转向"落实落细";货币政策不再提"适时降准降息";加力 经济大省挑大梁。 ■ 重点工作:降低风险,以我为主 内需:依然是重点。(1)在消费领域"深入实施"提振消费专项行动,且从方向上这部分 消费是来源于"保障改善民生";从结构上除了"扩大"商品消费,也要"培育"服务消费。 (2)在投资领域,相比较 4 月份扩围提质实施"两新"政策,加力实施"两重"建设,7 月 份政治局会议仅强调了高质量推动"两 ...
期指:会议落地,偏多支撑依旧
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].
习近平:要有力提振消费、破除“内卷”
Xin Hua She· 2025-07-31 01:04
就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作 中共中央召开党外人士座谈会 习近平主持并发表重要讲话 习近平强调,当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战,要正确把握形势,增强忧患意识,坚持底线思 维,用好发展机遇、潜力和优势,巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。下半年,要在宏观政策上持续发力、适 时加力,重点做好全方位扩大内需、坚定不移深化改革扩大开放、推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发 展、持续防范化解重点领域风险、多措并举保障改善民生等工作。 习近平指出,上半年,各民主党派中央、全国工商联和无党派人士紧扣中共中央重大决策部署,聚焦经 济社会发展中的一些重点难点问题深入调研、建言献策,积极开展民主监督,体现了在中国共产党领导 下团结合作的政治担当和实干精神。他代表中共中央向大家表示衷心感谢。 习近平对各民主党派、全国工商联和无党派人士提出两点希望。一是统一思想认识,凝聚广泛共识。深 刻理解把握中共中央关于当前经济形势的分析判断和经济工作的指导思想、大政方针、重要部署,多做 宣传政策、解疑释惑、理顺情绪、凝聚共识的工作,汇聚起团结奋斗的强大正能量。二是立足自身优 势,推动高质量发展。结合履职选准调研题目,统筹用好各类资源和专业智库,提出更 ...
A股市场大势研判:沪指冲高回落,创业板指全天弱势
Dongguan Securities· 2025-07-30 23:30
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3615.72, up by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.77% to 11203.03. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62% to 2367.68 [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (+2.05%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.84%), Media (+0.99%), Food & Beverage (+0.86%), and Social Services (+0.65%) [3][4] - The sectors that underperformed were Electric Equipment (-2.22%), Computer (-1.59%), Automotive (-1.27%), Defense & Military (-1.06%), and Communication (-0.95%) [3][4] Concept Performance - The leading concept sectors were Combustible Ice (+3.07%), Artemisinin (+2.33%), Dairy (+1.84%), Corn (+1.38%), and Community Group Buying (+1.27%) [3][4] - The lagging concept sectors included Electronic ID (-2.82%), Digital Currency (-2.81%), Mobile Payment (-2.56%), Explosive Concept (-2.27%), and Cross-Border Payment (CIPS) (-2.02%) [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to remain supported by positive macroeconomic policies, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [5][6] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. tariff policy changes are highlighted as key factors to watch [6]
巩固回升向好势头 实现“十四五”圆满收官
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 23:30
本报特约评论员 "十四五"规划收官之年,外部环境急剧变化。单边主义明显抬头,保护主义卷土重来,严重损害国际经 贸秩序、冲击全球经济发展……越是挑战来袭,越是检验一国经济的成色,越是考验应对变局的能力。 今年以来,在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,各地区各部门积极作为、攻坚克难,加紧实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策,我国经济运行稳中有进,高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好, 新质生产力积极发展,改革开放不断深化,重点领域风险有力有效防范化解,民生兜底保障进一步加 强,我国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 国家统计局发布的数据显示,今年上半年,国内生产总值超66万亿元,同比增长5.3%,主要指标好于 预期,"稳"的态势持续,"进"的步伐坚定,"新"的动能累积,"畅"的循环改善。事实表明,尽管外部环 境更趋复杂严峻,但中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜力大,支撑高质量发展的积极因素在不断积 累,完全有底气、有信心、有能力应对外部挑战。 时钟滴答作响,离"十四五"规划收官越来越近。综观上半年这份来之不易、含金量高的发展成绩单,我 们看到了全球第二大经济体强大的底气与韧性,读出了中国经济的确定性与稳定性,也增强了决战 ...
香港发布营商环境报告: 核心竞争力稳固 新优势正形成
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 23:19
Core Insights - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) government released the "Hong Kong Business Environment Report," highlighting significant global changes and Hong Kong's proactive approach to innovation and breakthroughs [1] - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, stated that the economy is showing a steady improvement, with a 3.1% growth in the first quarter and an expectation of continued growth in the second quarter [1] - The implementation of the National Security Law has created a safe and stable environment for the city, ensuring the rights and freedoms of citizens while positioning Hong Kong as a global investment safe haven [1] Economic Management and Strategy - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to managing various risks with a bottom-line thinking approach, aiming to promote steady economic progress [1] - Hong Kong aims to actively integrate into the national development framework while maintaining a high level of internationalization, enhancing regional and global collaboration [1] - The government plans to play a crucial role as an important node in the domestic and international dual circulation, participating in national strategies such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development [1]
决定召开二十届四中全会分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-30 21:08
● 新华社北京7月30日电 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议,决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全 体会议,主要议程是,中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作,研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十 五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。中共中央总书记习近平主持 会议。 会议指出,"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期,我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化,战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多,同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大,长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变,中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显,要保持战略定力,增强必胜信心,积极识变应 变求变,集中力量办好自己的事,在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动,推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议指出,宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策, 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用,提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕,促进社会综合融资成本下行。 ...
7月30日晚间央视新闻联播要闻集锦
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-07-30 13:59
今日摘要 中共中央政治局召开会议,决定召开二十届四中全会,分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。中共中央总 书记习近平主持会议。 就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作,中共中央召开党外人士座谈会。习近平主持并发表重要讲话。李强 通报有关情况,王沪宁、蔡奇、丁薛祥出席。 《习近平谈治国理政》第五卷中英文版出版发行。 "十四五"时期,我国成为世界上口岸通关效率最高效的国家之一。 各地各部门扎实做好救灾抢险和恢复重建工作。 俄罗斯堪察加半岛附近海域发生8.7级强震,多国发布海啸预警。 内容速览 中共中央政治局召开会议 决定召开二十届四中全会 分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作 中共中央总书记 习近平主持会议 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议,决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全 体会议,主要议程是,中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作,研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十 五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。中共中央总书记习近平主持 会议。 就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作 中共中央召开党外人士座谈会 习近平主持并发表重要讲话 当地时间7月28日至29日,中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副 ...
7月政治局会议解读:立足当下,着眼长远
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-30 13:04
Economic Performance - The Politburo meeting affirmed the good performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[2] - The meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery and address prominent issues in economic operations, such as insufficient effective demand and low price levels[2] Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the importance of "bottom-line thinking" to safeguard domestic economic and social stability, prioritizing employment as a key policy goal[2] - It was stated that macro policies should continue to exert force and be implemented in a timely manner, with a focus on more proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year[3] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with expectations for 1-2 interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, totaling a reduction of 20-30 basis points[3] - The meeting indicated that structural monetary policy tools would be utilized to support technology innovation, boost consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, with a new focus on small and micro enterprises[3] Market Competition and Consumption - The meeting called for the promotion of a unified national market and the optimization of market competition order to eliminate disorderly competition[3] - Service consumption is emphasized as a new growth point, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, accounting for 45% of total per capita consumption expenditure[3] Long-term Planning - The decision to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October to formulate the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal reflects a long-term strategic vision[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as crucial for achieving the long-term goal of socialist modernization, with a focus on new quality productivity and emerging pillar industries[4]
香港发布营商环境报告:核心竞争力稳固 新优势正在形成
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-07-30 12:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that Hong Kong is navigating through significant global changes while maintaining its core competitiveness and forming new advantages [1][2] - The Hong Kong economy is showing a steady improvement, with a reported growth of 3.1% in the first quarter and an expectation of continued growth in the second quarter [1] - The implementation of the National Security Law has created a stable environment, ensuring the rights and freedoms of citizens while positioning Hong Kong as a safe harbor for global investment [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that global investment opportunities are being actively sought, and Hong Kong can assist countries in diversifying risks, attracting funds, businesses, and talent [1] - By the end of 2024, the number of companies with overseas parent companies based in Hong Kong is expected to reach 9,960, reflecting an annual increase of approximately 10% [1] - As of the end of last year, the total value of asset and wealth management in Hong Kong was approximately HKD 35.1 trillion, with a registered fund count of 976 as of March this year, showing a net inflow of over USD 44 billion, a growth of 285% year-on-year [1]