Core Insights - Affirm's stock surged by 10.2% on a day marked by a broader upswing in the buy-now/pay-later (BNPL) and fintech sectors, influenced by a weaker-than-expected jobs report that may lead to lower interest rates [1][4][5] Company Performance - Affirm's CFO Rob O'Hare highlighted a five-year partnership extension with Amazon, which is expected to drive new customer acquisition for both companies [2][6] - The company reported a 34% increase in revenue and a GAAP operating margin of 7% in its most recent quarter, indicating strong growth and profitability [9] - Credit trends remained stable, with delinquency rates consistent with previous years, suggesting that the company's credit model is holding up [10] Market Context - The positive market reaction to Affirm's performance was also reflected in other BNPL and fintech stocks, which experienced gains due to favorable market conditions and investor sentiment [5] - The partnership with Amazon was described as a "win-win," with terms remaining mostly unchanged, reinforcing Affirm's leadership in the industry [6][9] - Evercore ISI maintained an outperform rating for Affirm, with a price target of $95, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [7]

Core Insights - High mortgage rates have led to increased popularity of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), reminiscent of the 2008 housing crisis [1][10] - Improved lending standards are reducing risks associated with ARMs, making them a viable option for homebuyers [2][13] Group 1: ARM Usage Trends - The usage of ARMs has risen significantly, with about 10% of borrowers opting for them in September, compared to 6% post-2008 crash [4][10] - In October, ARMs accounted for 25% of home purchases, up from 16% the previous year [4] - The demand for ARMs surged after mortgage rates increased by over three percentage points in 2022, reaching above 7% [6] Group 2: Financial Implications - A five-year ARM offered an initial rate of 5.58%, compared to 6.37% for traditional loans, potentially saving borrowers around $200 monthly on a $400,000 loan [7] - The current environment has made ARMs more attractive as short-term interest rates have declined, leading to better introductory rates [8] Group 3: Risk Management - Stricter credit standards are now in place, with lenders evaluating borrowers' credit ratings against current mortgage rates, reducing the risk of defaults [13][14] - Most ARMs now have fixed terms of 5, 7, and 10 years, and borrowers are underwritten to the fully indexed rate, making them less risky than pre-2008 loans [14]

[Music] Investors are sorting through a mixed picture of updates on the labor market, but our next guest still optimistic on the road ahead for the economy and markets. Bank of America senior investment strategist Lauren Sanfalippo joins me here now to discuss. Lauren, it is good to see you.Let's start in the macro. Lauren, uh, you're all calling for real GDP growth to accelerate nominal over 5%. What gives you the confidence to make that call.>> Well, I think we'll find out more on Thursday on the inflatio ...

By STAN CHOE, AP Business WriterNEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market is slipping on Tuesday following mixed data on the economy’s strength, which did little to clear uncertainty about where interest rates may be heading. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% in afternoon trading and remains a bit below its all-time high set last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 342 points, or 0.7%, as of 12:45 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% lower.Treasury yields eased a bit, following a larger initial ...

Employment Data & Economic Outlook - November jobs report indicates employers added 64,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate edged up to 46% from 44% [1] - The economy is weaker than desired, based on backward-looking data [3] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a conundrum regarding cutting rates in light of the job numbers [3] - Persistent inflation, partly due to tariffs, complicates the decision to lower interest rates [4] - Lowering interest rates could exacerbate inflation, while increasing them could worsen unemployment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience and potential growth in 2026, despite uncertainties in the labor market and inflation [3][4]. Economic Outlook - New York Fed President John C. Williams anticipates fewer economic fluctuations in the upcoming year, emphasizing the balance between price stability and low unemployment [4][5]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently cut the benchmark Federal Funds Rate to a target range of approximately 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third quarter-percentage-point cut of the year [6][7]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job growth described as anemic and the unemployment rate steadily increasing [11]. - Williams noted that labor demand is softening more than supply, raising concerns about the overall health of the job market [11]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The FOMC's cautious approach to monetary policy has been influenced by tariff inflation and trade policy, leading to a "wait-and-see" strategy before implementing rate cuts [12]. - The recent interest rate cuts are aimed at supporting hiring while managing inflation risks, highlighting the delicate balance policymakers must maintain [10].

Labor Market Analysis - Initial market reaction to slightly higher than expected unemployment rate was quickly reassessed [1] - Labor force participation rate increase mitigates concerns about the unemployment rate [2] - November payroll number of 64,000 was close to expectations, and another payroll report before the January meeting will further diminish the importance of these figures [2] Consumer Spending and Earnings - Retail sales control group number was strong, indicating healthy consumer spending [3] - Average hourly earnings, while slightly weaker month-over-month, still show a 35% year-over-year increase, suggesting continued wage growth [3] - Real incomes and the wealth effect are supporting consumption, driving market movement [4] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly starting in March, combined with fiscal stimulus, could lead to a sell-off at the long end of the yield curve [4] - Bond market signals that while the Fed controls the short end, the long end reacts to better growth, sticky inflation, and high capital demand, pushing up the term premium [5] - Average hourly earnings growth of 35% year-over-year is the slowest pace since May 2021, influencing CPI expectations [6] Inflation and Tariffs - Inflation data, particularly CPI, is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy pivot [6][7] - Tariff-related components are seen as drivers of underlying inflation stickiness, with the key question being whether this is a one-off event or an ongoing inflationary process [8] - There is a consensus that tariff inflation should be a one-off event, with wages being a more critical factor in the process of inflation [9] - Wage growth, while still present, is also showing signs of slowing down [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market in 2025 has been influenced by several factors including surging AI investments, fluctuating tariff policies under President Trump, prolonged high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and increasing economic uncertainty [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The focus on AI investments has surged, indicating a strong interest and potential growth in this sector [1] - President Trump's tariff policies have been rapidly changing, which may create volatility in the market [1] - Interest rates are expected to remain high for an extended period, impacting borrowing costs and investment strategies [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach emphasizes identifying mispriced securities by analyzing the underlying drivers of a company's financials, often revealed through DCF model valuation [1] - This methodology allows for a flexible investment strategy that encompasses various investment styles, rather than being confined to traditional categories like value, dividend, or growth investing [1]

CBC team coverage uh this morning involves Steve Leeman as well as Rick Santelli. Rick Santelli, let's go to you. You're standing by at the CME.Let's get straight to the numbers. But Mike Santelli, by the way, is out the NY. But Rick, get the numbers, please.>> Yes. October and November for the big job job jobs report. The only thing is it's not Friday.Here we go. November's number comes in at 64,000. 64,000 on non-farm.And if we look at average hourly earnings, they are up onetenth up onetenth of a percent ...

European stocks look set to open lower on Tuesday as investors await cues from key U.S. data and central bank decisions. The delayed monthly jobs report for November along with the October retail sales report will be in the spotlight today, while the consumer price index for November is scheduled to be released on Thursday. The data could impact the outlook for interest rates after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting last Wednesday showed significant differences of opinion about further rate cuts ...