Microsoft (MSFT) will release its first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2026 on Oct. 29. The tech giant has been consistently delivering solid growth, driven by strong demand for its productivity suite, artificial intelligence (AI) offerings, and cloud solutions. Despite these tailwinds, the stock’s recent price action has been underwhelming. While MSFT shares are up roughly 29% so far this year, they’ve managed just a modest 5.8% gain over the last three months. The upcoming earnings report is expected to re ...

Group 1: Amazon.com Inc. - Amazon is expected to post steady third-quarter gains driven by strong performance in cloud, advertising, and retail [1] - Analyst Mark Mahaney projects Amazon's revenue at $178 billion and operating income at $19.5 billion for the third quarter [3] - AWS revenue is anticipated to grow 18% year over year, with North American retail revenue expected to reach $104.7 billion (up 10% YoY) and International retail revenue at $41.2 billion (up 15%) [4] - Advertising growth is expected to remain strong, supported by Prime Video and connected TV partnerships [4] - Automation in fulfillment centers is expected to yield cost efficiencies, and expanding Prime Same-Day to grocery delivery enhances customer engagement [5] Group 2: Apple Inc. - Apple is positioned for a strong quarter, benefiting from robust iPhone 17 demand and easing headwinds in its Services segment [6] - Analyst Amit Daryanani forecasts revenue growth of around 8.6% sequentially, with gross margins expected between 46% and 47% [6] - 59% of surveyed consumers plan to buy the iPhone 17, above the historical average of 45% [7] Group 3: Microsoft Corp - Microsoft is expected to deliver a strong fiscal first-quarter performance, driven by accelerating momentum in Azure and AI [7] - Analyst Kirk Materne anticipates Azure's growth to exceed company guidance, with AI emerging as a key catalyst [8] - Capital expenditures are expected to remain elevated as Microsoft expands its data center footprint, with continued investments in AI infrastructure sustaining long-term growth [8]

Core Insights - The third-quarter earnings season has shown strong results, with 145 S&P 500 companies reporting a 14.9% increase in total earnings and a 7.8% rise in revenues compared to the previous year [1] - Approximately 87% of the reporting companies exceeded EPS expectations, indicating a positive outlook for continued earnings growth [2] - The upcoming week will see over 800 companies report earnings, including a significant number from the S&P 500 [3] Microsoft Overview - Microsoft is set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.65 per share, a 10.6% increase from $3.30 per share a year ago [4] - The consensus estimate for Microsoft's revenues is $74.96 billion, reflecting a 14.3% year-over-year improvement [6] - Microsoft aims to leverage its position in the AI value chain, with projected revenue growth from its cloud-computing unit expected to rise about 38% to $23 billion [7] Market Position and Strategy - Microsoft has demonstrated strong enterprise penetration and significant contract expansions, including large deals exceeding $100 million for Azure and Microsoft 365 [8] - The company plans over $30 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal Q1, representing over 50% year-over-year growth, which is crucial for its AI infrastructure investments [9] - With a market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, Microsoft holds the second-largest weighting in the S&P 500, trailing only Nvidia [10] Future Outlook - A strong earnings report and higher-than-expected AI infrastructure spending could catalyze a significant increase in Microsoft's stock price [11] - The results from Microsoft and other members of the Magnificent Seven are anticipated to influence market trends for the remainder of the fourth quarter [13]

Core Insights - Microsoft reported strong first quarter earnings, exceeding analysts' expectations with commercial cloud revenue of $49.1 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase [1][3] - The company's capital expenditures rose significantly by 74% year-over-year to $34.9 billion, with half attributed to GPUs and CPUs for Azure [2] - Microsoft experienced a stock decline of over 2% following the earnings report, despite reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $3.72 on revenue of $77.7 billion, surpassing analyst expectations [3][4] Financial Performance - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $3.72, compared to an anticipated EPS of $3.68, with revenue reported at $77.7 billion against an expected $75.5 billion [3] - In the same quarter last year, Microsoft reported an EPS of $3.30 and revenue of $65.6 billion [4] - Intelligent Cloud revenue, which includes Azure sales, reached $30.9 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $30.2 billion [4] Strategic Developments - Microsoft and OpenAI announced a revamped deal allowing OpenAI to restructure into a for-profit public benefit corporation, with Microsoft holding a 27% stake valued at approximately $135 billion [5] - Microsoft has invested billions in OpenAI, which has enhanced its software capabilities through Microsoft's Azure platform, contributing to revenue growth [6] - The new agreement allows OpenAI to utilize other cloud providers while committing to spend $250 billion on Azure usage [8] Product and Service Expansion - Microsoft is expanding its AI offerings, including the introduction of Copilot for PCs and updates to Windows 11 that enable voice interaction with the Copilot AI chatbot [8] - Copilot is also being integrated into Xbox gaming applications, indicating a broader strategy to enhance consumer engagement through AI [8]

Microsoft (MSFT) is scheduled to report its first quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, offering Wall Street its latest look at the company's AI and cloud growth. The results follow news that Microsoft and OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) announced the terms of their revamped deal that allows the ChatGPT developer to move forward with plans to transform the corporate structure of its for-profit arm into a public benefit corporation controlled by its nonprofit side. Under the new agreement Microsoft will hold 27 ...

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) just keeps rolling. The stock hit all-time highs last week and then did it again today. Now AMD stock appears poised to make even more new highs in advance of its third-quarter earnings report on Nov. 4. AMD is one of the best-performing stocks on Wall Street in recent weeks, rising 64% in just a month. That means soaring returns—if you had invested $10,000 into AMD stock just a month ago, you’d be sitting on a profit of over $6,000. More News from Barchart The key question ...

Core Insights - The current focus in the tech sector revolves around AI revenue streams, digital advertising growth, and energy consumption efficiency [2][3][10] AI Revenue Streams - There is ongoing debate about whether the tech giants are in an AI bubble or if there is sustainable growth, with indications that AI revenue streams are continuing to develop [2] - Six out of the seven major tech companies are investing in Nvidia's technology, which is driving AI revenue growth [2] Digital Advertising - The growth of digital advertising remains a significant area of interest, with positive indicators suggesting continued expansion in this sector [2][10] - Meta is leveraging AI to enhance digital ad efficiency and revenue operations, positioning itself as a leader in AI integration among the major tech companies [10] Energy Consumption and Efficiency - Energy consumption and efficiency are critical trends, with companies like Qualcomm focusing on reducing energy use while enhancing chip performance [3][5] - There is a competitive rush among vendors to find alternatives to Nvidia's GPUs, emphasizing the importance of energy efficiency in chip design [5] Cloud Market Competition - Major players like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are in a race for cloud market share, with AI capabilities being a key factor in their competitive strategies [6][8] - The intertwining of AI and cloud consumption is expected to drive significant growth in both areas, with Oracle and other companies also contributing to this trend [8][9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commvault achieved a total revenue growth of 18% to $276 million, with subscription ARR increasing by 30% to $894 million [4][15] - Total ARR grew by 22% to exceed $1 billion, reaching this milestone two quarters earlier than the original target [4][14] - SaaS ARR rose 56% to $336 million, also surpassing the initial target two quarters ahead of schedule [15][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Subscription ARR now constitutes 86% of total ARR, up from 81% a year ago, indicating a strong shift towards subscription-based revenue [15] - Identity and data security-focused offerings contributed nearly 40% of net new ARR, showcasing strong momentum in this segment [7][16] - Active Directory usage tripled year over year, reflecting increased adoption of data and identity recovery solutions [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of SaaS customers grew to nearly 9,000, representing a 40% year-over-year increase [9] - Commvault moved and protects approximately eight exabytes of customer data in the cloud, with a CAGR of over 40% over the past five years [8] - Net dollar retention remained healthy at 125%, indicating strong customer loyalty and upsell opportunities [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Commvault's growth is driven by strong demand for its Cloud Cyber Resilience platform, the ongoing shift to the cloud, and a commitment to innovation [5][10] - The company is focusing on integrating identity security with data protection to enhance cyber resilience [38] - Recent acquisition of Satori Cyber aims to bolster capabilities in monitoring and protecting large language models and structured data [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued market demand, driven by the need for enhanced cyber resilience amid rising cyber threats [36][23] - The company anticipates a total ARR growth of 18% to 19% for fiscal 2026, with subscription ARR expected to increase by 24% to 25% [21][22] - Management highlighted the importance of innovation and customer-centric strategies to maintain competitive advantage in a rapidly evolving market [47] Other Important Information - Commvault's fiscal Q2 gross margins were reported at 80.5%, reflecting the impact of the SaaS business mix [18] - The company raised $900 million in convertible senior notes to optimize its balance sheet and enhance capital allocation flexibility [19] - Free cash flow grew 37% year over year to $74 million, supported by strong cash collections and deferred revenue from SaaS contracts [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the shift in term duration? - Management noted that customers are opting for shorter contract durations to maintain flexibility as they transition to the cloud, which has impacted average deal size [26] Question: How does Commvault view the competitive landscape? - Management believes that while the market is competitive, Commvault is gaining share due to its innovative solutions and strong growth in both SaaS and software segments [31][33] Question: Is the backup modernization cycle winding down? - Management disagreed, stating that the frequency and scale of cyber attacks continue to drive demand for modernization and resilience solutions [36] Question: What are the drivers of the term subscription business? - On-premise data growth remains a significant driver, alongside the increasing integration of identity and data security offerings [52] Question: Are you seeing increased cross-sell between term and SaaS customers? - Management confirmed that the percentage of SaaS customers also using term products is gradually increasing, reflecting a positive trend in cross-selling [55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commvault achieved a record $47 million in net new ARR, with subscription ARR rising 30% to $894 million and total revenue growing 18% to $276 million [3][12] - Total ARR grew 22%, reaching $1 billion two quarters earlier than the original target [3][12] - SaaS ARR grew 56% to $336 million, also exceeding the original target two quarters ahead of schedule [12][13] - Fiscal Q2 gross margins were 80.5%, reflecting the shift towards SaaS and the integration costs from Satori [17][66] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Subscription ARR now constitutes 86% of total ARR, up from 81% a year ago [13] - Strong double-digit growth was observed in identity and data security offerings, which represented nearly 40% of net new ARR [5][15] - Active Directory usage tripled year over year, indicating strong demand for identity protection services [15][46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commvault protects approximately eight exabytes of customer data in the cloud, with a CAGR of over 40% over the past five years [7] - The number of SaaS customers grew to nearly 9,000, representing a 40% increase year over year [8] - Net dollar retention remained healthy at 125%, indicating strong adoption of SaaS offerings from existing customers [9][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on three key growth drivers: demand for the Commvault Cloud Cyber Resilience platform, the shift to the cloud, and ongoing innovation [4][10] - Commvault aims to address evolving resilience requirements as enterprises increasingly adopt AI technologies [10] - The acquisition of Satori Cyber is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in monitoring and protecting large language models [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued strong market demand, driven by innovation and growth-focused investments [21] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, but Commvault is positioned to take market share through its innovative platform [28][39] - The company anticipates a total revenue range of $1.161 to $1.165 billion for fiscal year 2026, reflecting a 17% increase at the midpoint [20] Other Important Information - Commvault's capital allocation strategy includes share buybacks, M&A, and organic investments [72] - The company repurchased $131 million of stock during the quarter, with a total of $146 million year to date [18][72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the shift in term duration? - Management noted that customers are opting for shorter contract durations to maintain flexibility as they transition to the cloud, which has impacted average deal size [24][62] Question: How does Commvault view the competitive landscape? - Management indicated that while the landscape is competitive, Commvault continues to take market share, particularly in the SaaS segment, which is growing at a faster rate than the overall market [28][30] Question: Are there signs of a slowdown in backup modernization? - Management disagreed, stating that the demand for cyber resilience remains strong due to ongoing cyber threats and the need for innovative solutions [31] Question: What are the drivers of the term subscription business? - Management highlighted that on-premise data growth continues to be a significant driver, alongside the increasing importance of identity and data security [43][46] Question: Is there increased cross-sell between term and SaaS customers? - Management confirmed that the percentage of SaaS customers also using term services is gradually increasing, reflecting a positive trend in cross-selling [47][48]

Financial Performance & Outlook - Celestica's 2025E revenue is projected to be $12.2 billion, with a 7.4% non-GAAP adjusted operating margin[21] - The company anticipates a 31% revenue growth in 2026, reaching $16.0 billion, and a non-GAAP operating margin of 7.8%, a 40 bps increase[150] - Non-GAAP adjusted EPS is expected to grow by 39% to $8.20 in 2026[150] - Celestica forecasts non-GAAP free cash flow of $500 million in 2026, an 18% increase from $425 million in 2025E[150] Segment Performance - Connectivity & Cloud Solutions (CCS) is expected to generate $9.0 billion in revenue in 2025E, a 39% year-over-year increase, with a segment margin of 8.2%, up 80 bps year-over-year[44] - Advanced Technology Solutions (ATS) is projected to reach $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025E, a 1% year-over-year increase, with a segment margin of 5.3%, up 70 bps year-over-year[117] Market & Technology - Data center IT capex is expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2028, driven by AI and cloud investments[63] - The High Bandwidth Ethernet Switch TAM is projected to reach approximately $50 billion by 2029, with a 30% CAGR[78, 79] Strategic Focus - Celestica is focused on accelerating market advancements through technology leadership and best-in-class operational execution[39]