Indonesia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to the lowest level since September 2023 due to rising interest-rate cuts expectations, overseas inflows and a soft US dollar https://t.co/IoluNNZoOE ...

We probably are going to see interest rate cuts in the future. I think the the the odds for a rate cut in September are up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut maybe they're up to 25% or so. So we think that will resolve positively as well.That's the one uncertainty. And the reason this matters is if people think rates are going to come down, then they're going to wait and see how low they go before they take major actions or make big purchases. So getting back to some kind of equilibrium is going to be imp ...

RT 🚨BSC Gems Alert🚨 (@BSCGemsAlert)🇺🇸 $3 TRILLION GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS THE FED TO START CUTTING RATES IN SEPTEMBER. ...

The Czech koruna is likely to keep outperforming central European peers as inflation risks point to an end of the central bank’s interest rate cuts, according to ING Bank NV https://t.co/f3eftK5N6U ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the US labor market and macroeconomic conditions, particularly the impact of generative AI on employment and the overall economic growth forecast for the US. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Growth Near Stall Speed**: Recent job numbers indicate that US economic growth is close to stall speed, with a modest increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% in Q1 to 4.248% in July. The underlying monthly job growth estimate has dropped significantly from 206k in Q1 to just 28k in July, which is below the breakeven pace of 90k [1][4][10]. 2. **Negative Payroll Revisions**: Payroll revisions can be attributed to late responses from firms under economic pressure, misinterpretation of seasonal factors, and fewer new establishments opening in a weakening economy [4][10]. 3. **Impact of Generative AI**: Generative AI is expected to displace 6-7% of all US workers over the next decade, with a notable increase in unemployment among tech workers aged 20-30, rising nearly 3 percentage points since early 2024 [10][14]. 4. **Slowdown in US Output Growth**: Real GDP growth was only 1.2% (annualized) in the first half of 2025, which is below potential. The forecast for the second half of 2025 remains sluggish, with slow growth in real disposable income and consumer spending due to weak job growth and upcoming consumer price increases from tariffs [14][18]. 5. **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December 2025, with potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises again [18][20]. 6. **Trade Deal Impact on Euro Area Growth**: The recent trade deal with the US has led to an upgrade in Euro area growth forecasts, particularly for Germany, with expectations that the ECB will maintain its deposit rate at 2% [22][27]. 7. **Japanese GDP Forecast Upgrade**: Japan's GDP forecast has been lifted due to a better-than-expected trade deal with the US, although the BoJ remains cautious regarding inflation [27][28]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Labor Market Weakness**: The current labor market weakness is primarily driven by a slowdown in US output growth, which is exacerbated by higher tariffs [14][18]. 2. **Consumer Spending and Income Growth**: Weakness in real income growth is likely to keep consumer spending sluggish, with forecasts indicating slow growth rates [17][18]. 3. **Dollar Depreciation Expectations**: The forecast supports long positions at the front end of the US yield curve and anticipates further dollar depreciation due to labor market weakness and resilience in other economies [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for investment strategies.

Group 1: Market Overview - The real estate sector is gaining attention from Wall Street as it becomes cheaper and shows signs of recovery, particularly in the homebuilding industry [1][2] - Unusual call options trading activity indicates a bullish sentiment among investors regarding the homebuilding sector [2] Group 2: Individual Company Insights - PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) is showing positive momentum with a recent net return of 11.7% over the past quarter, despite trading at 78% of its 52-week high [4][5] - UBS analyst John Lovallo has a Buy rating on PulteGroup, with a price target of $150 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 29% from current levels [7] - Lennar Corp. (LEN) is projected to experience significant EPS growth, with forecasts suggesting a 60% increase in EPS for Q4 2025, which could drive stock price appreciation [8][9] - Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) has seen a 9.1% decline in short interest, indicating a shift in sentiment towards bullishness, with a current trading price at 72% of its 52-week high [12][13] Group 3: Institutional Activity - Nordea Investment Management increased its holdings in PulteGroup by 2.8%, bringing their total investment to $94 million [5] - Jennison Associates added 11.2% to their Toll Brothers holdings, raising their position to $81.5 million, making them one of the largest institutional investors in the company [14]

I sat down with @jvisserlabs to discuss the AI helping companies beat earnings, BLS jobs revision, interest rate cuts, Strategy's financial performance, SEC Project Crypto, humanoid robots, and much more.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/ZQw8yrgbt7Spotify: https://t.co/HwizCSWKtxApple: https://t.co/CSJjI6wpMkTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro1:10 - Jobs data & interest rate cuts7:11 - AI boom is helping a lot of companies crush earnings22:19 - Evaluating Strategy’s historic earnings25:54 - SEC, White House, Jamie Dimon embr ...

About 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Matt Miller and Katie Greifeld here in for Romaine Bostick and Scarlet Fu. And here to help us take you through the closing bell, a global simulcast, we're joined now by Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec, bringing together our Bloomberg Television, Radio and YouTube audiences worldwide to parse through the most crucial moments of the trading day Carol.Doesn't anybody know it's ice cream day here at Bloomberg. We like like Fridays to be mellow and quiet. And ...

>> LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: WALL STREET ISN'T A BAD MOOD. WELCOME TO THE FRIDAY EDITION AS JOB GROWTH FALLS SHORT, PROMPTING A NEW ROUND OF CALLS FOR INTEREST RATE CUTS AS THE WHITE HOUSE PROCESS TERRORISTS FOR ALL ABOUT. -- IMPOSES TARIFFS FOR ALL ABOUT TRADING PARTNERS. A MASSIVE BREAKING STORY JUST MOMENTS AGO, YOU HEARD IT HAPPEN HERE ON BLOOMBERG. THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING IS CLOSING DOWN, KAILEY, AFTER THE DEFENDING DE ...

Labor Market & Economic Outlook - US labor market shows warning signs with payrolls tumbling and unemployment rate rising, indicating a deceleration in job gains [1][2] - Concerns mount over a complicated mix for the Federal Reserve to deal with, leading to expectations of potential rate cuts in September and December [2][3] - Slowing services wages suggest a potential slowdown in consumption and the overall economy, justifying lower interest rates even without a formal recession [19] - The economy is structurally sound, but current policy may be suboptimal, with rates disproportionately hurting lower-income households as housing and labor markets slow [9][10] Interest Rate & Monetary Policy - Fed rate cut bets for September have reached nearly 90%, a significant increase from 45% prior to jobs data, with two rate cuts priced in for the year [6] - The Cleveland Fed President acknowledges a tricky time for monetary policy makers due to conflicting mandates, requiring careful data analysis and business conversations [7][8] - The market anticipates bull steepening as the economy slows and the Fed cuts rates, potentially spurring inflation or growth, leading to a V-shaped recovery [12] - Neutral rate is difficult to determine, potentially higher than expected due to shifts in household and business debt structures, allowing for higher interest rates with a robust economy [17][18] Bond Market & Credit Issuance - US high-grade weekly volume reached $12 million, driven by foreign bank sales, while July volume was $81 billion, the lightest month for supply this year [29] - US high-yield July volumes exceeded $35 billion, marking the second busiest month since September 2021 and the busiest since at least 2006 [30] - Leveraged loan launches in July set a record, reaching over $222 billion, the fourth time in 14 months an all-time record has been broken [30] - Private sector holds $225 trillion in cash, exceeding marketable Treasury debt, with only $29 trillion in high-quality bonds, creating a transcendent influence on the market [26][27]