Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. After two days of sharp decline, the futures price rose with reduced positions to repair the moving - average deviation, and short - term participation is recommended [2] - For rapeseed oil, Canadian rapeseed is expected to have a high yield, which exerts pressure on its price. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited with a loose supply - demand situation. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases keep supply pressure low. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The tight supply expectation makes rapeseed oil lead the rise in the oil market, and the Sino - Canadian trade policy trend should be monitored [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10142 yuan/ton, up 221; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49; ICE rapeseed (active) is 617.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.3; rapeseed (active contract) is 5281 yuan/ton, up 1 [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 484 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 41507 yuan/ton, up 101 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 39516 lots, up 21725; rapeseed meal is - 51747 lots, up 21457 [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 8057 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 9245 sheets, unchanged [2] - Main - contract open interest: Rapeseed oil is 347712 lots; rapeseed meal is 378057 lots, down 20054 [2] 现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan/ton, up 70; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2490 yuan/ton, up 40; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8430 yuan/ton, up 80; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9170 yuan/ton, up 150; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, up 40 [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 10105 yuan/ton, up 70 [2] - Import cost: Imported rapeseed is 7704.7 yuan/ton, up 0.1 [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio is 3.93, down 0.03; rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price difference is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10; rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price difference is 870 yuan/ton, down 80; soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is - 102 yuan/ton, down 151; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 9 [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; annual forecast for a certain area is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 12 [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal are 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] 产业情况 - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] 下游情况 - Feed production is 2927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] - Edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] 期权市场 - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.79%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.78%, up 0.9%; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 24.01%, up 0.41% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; 20 - day historical volatility is 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures were nearly flat on Wednesday, with little guidance from the soybean oil market. CBOT soybean futures fell on Wednesday due to concerns about US export demand. Rapeseed meal 2601 contract rose 1.58% on Thursday. US soybeans are in the harvest period, and the expected high yield restrains prices. The Sino - US soybean trade situation remains deadlocked, and Argentina's export policy changes affect the market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it's recommended to take a bullish approach and monitor China - Canada trade relations. This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher in a volatile manner. Although Canada's rapeseed harvest is expected to be a bumper one, there are uncertainties in China - Canada trade policies. Domestically, the开机率 of oil mills is low, and the supply of rapeseed in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, it's advised to trade in the short - term and pay attention to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined in a volatile way. The USDA report is bearish, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting rapeseed meal supply and demand [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate with a bullish bias and focus on China - Canada trade [7]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher in a volatile way, with the 01 - contract closing at 10,068 yuan/ton, up 211 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, the highest since 2018. However, the Canadian government may adjust policies to avoid Chinese import tariffs on rapeseed. In the US, the bio - diesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited. But for rapeseed oil itself, the oil mill's开机率 is low, and the supply of rapeseed in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Trade in the short - term and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [10]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined in a volatile way, with the 01 - contract closing at 2,522 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [11]. - Outlook: The USDA report is bearish. Domestically, the supply of rapeseed in the near - term is low, and the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is seasonally increasing. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal and the expected increase in domestic soybean imports suppress the rapeseed meal market [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 352,429 lots, up 61,295 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures slightly declined with a total position of 381,171 lots, down 21,729 lots from the previous week [16]. - Top 20 Net Positions: This week, the top 20 net long position of rapeseed oil futures increased, and the top 20 net short position of rapeseed meal futures increased [22]. - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 8,202 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 9,248 lots [26][27]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,320 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, with a basis of + 252 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,550 yuan/ton, with little change from last week, and the basis is + 28 yuan/ton [36][42]. - Futures Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 500 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is + 135 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [47]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal in the 01 - contract is 3.99, and the average spot price ratio is 3.94 [50]. - Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals: The 01 - contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil is 1,740 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil - palm oil is 752 yuan/ton, both widening this week. The 01 - contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal is 492 yuan/ton, and the spot spread is 380 yuan/ton [59][65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast: As of September 12, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 100,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in September, October, and November 2025 are 195,000, 150,000, and 450,000 tons respectively [71]. - Supply - Import and Pressing Profit: As of September 18, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1,244 yuan/ton [75]. - Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume: As of the 37th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills is 61,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last week, with an开机率 of 14.92% [79]. - Supply - Monthly Import Volume: In July 2025, China's rapeseed import volume is 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [83]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply - Inventory and Import Volume: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil is 683,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. In August 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil is 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.67% and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [87]. - Demand - Consumption and Production: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.769 million tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue is 449.57 billion yuan [91]. - Demand - Weekly Contract Volume: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume is 81,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.45% [95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Weekly Inventory: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal is 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [99]. - Supply - Import Volume: In July 2025, China's rapeseed meal import volume is 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [103]. - Demand - Feed Monthly Production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed production is 2.8273 million tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of September 19, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 22.49%, up 1.1% from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [110].