Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in canola meal futures, with significant fluctuations in prices and a notable decrease in inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola meal futures opened at 2492.00 CNY/ton, with a trading range between 2415.00 CNY and 2514.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.21% [1]. - The total number of canola meal futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 2745 as of November 14, but there has been a cumulative decrease of 6344 receipts over the past month, representing a decline of 69.80% [1]. Group 2: Price Movements - Canadian canola prices for January and March shipments increased by 1 USD/ton, reaching 531 USD/ton and 539 USD/ton, respectively [1]. - The export volume of Canadian canola decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons for the week ending November 9, down from 188,400 tons the previous week [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The USDA has revised the 2025/26 U.S. soybean yield estimate down to 53.0 bushels per acre, leading to a total production forecast of 4.253 billion bushels, which is lower than previous estimates [2]. - Domestic canola consumption is under pressure due to limited imports from Canada and a general decline in demand as temperatures drop, impacting aquaculture needs [2]. - The market is currently facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with expectations of lower canola meal demand due to the availability of soybeans and the competitive advantage of soybean meal [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown continues, and the market focuses on the return of US soybean orders due to the implementation of China - US policy agreements. Domestically, the supply of near - month soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure will weaken as imports decline. The cost of imports supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 year is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and the downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is low, which is not conducive to the substitution of rapeseed meal. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Foreign Supply and Demand 3.1.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA report is expected to show a potential downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the 2025/26 year, which may reduce the ending inventory. The price of US soybeans has been oscillating at a high level, ranging from 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The export demand and domestic crushing demand need to be further observed. The current cost of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward pressure on prices remains. [16][17] 3.1.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, and Argentine sowing has started. The sowing progress in Brazil is behind last year due to local precipitation, but it is expected to continue to advance. The Chinese procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium to oscillate. The market will gradually focus on the weather in South America in the next two months. [26][27] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 year, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase of 6.11%. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%. The international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline due to trade policies. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio continue to increase. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade policies. [53] 3.2 CFTC Positions - The report provides data on CBOT soybean and soybean meal non - commercial long and short positions, total positions, and non - commercial net long positions and their proportions, which can reflect the market sentiment and expectations of investors. [42][44][46] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Domestic Import Situation - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The supply of soybean meal in the near - term is loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. However, the increase in import costs supports the price of soybean meal. [64] 3.3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Operating Rate - As of the week of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to increase to 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% respectively in the 46th week. The rapeseed pressing in coastal areas has basically stagnated. [86] 3.3.3 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans has increased, mainly due to the significant increase in CBOT soybean prices. The import cost of rapeseed from Canada and the pressing profit are also provided in the report. [93][100] 3.3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills increased by 511,600 tons to 7.6195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.97%. The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline. [101] 3.3.5 Downstream Demand - As of November 13, the total trading volume of soybean meal in China was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase. The trading volume in the spot and forward - basis markets has improved. The total提货 volume of soybean meal decreased slightly. The downstream aquaculture is in the off - season, and the livestock and poultry breeding profit situation is also provided in the report. [119] 3.3.6 Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the basis of different contracts and regions, as well as the spread between different contracts. [13][115]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upside space for soybean meal is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. For rapeseed meal, the upside space is also limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract [3]. - Internationally, the US government shutdown continues, and the market lacks data guidance. Attention is focused on the return of US soybean orders due to Sino-US policy agreements. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease as imports decline [3]. - The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is entering the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation for rapeseed meal [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Supply and Demand - **US Soybeans** - The market expects a downward adjustment of US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, with tightening fundamentals supporting the price. The current price is in the range of 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The average analyst forecast for the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bushels per acre, down from 33.5 in September. The end - of - season inventory is expected to decrease. Policy - wise, the suspension of some tariffs has not led to large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.02 dollars per bushel, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 108.86 tons, in line with expectations [18]. - **South American Soybeans** - Brazilian soybean planting is over half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. Argentina's planting has started. China's purchases support the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains stable. As of November 8, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazil's November soybean exports to reach 426 tons [26][27]. 2. CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the CBOT soybean non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and total positions, as well as the CBOT soybean meal non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and total positions, showed certain trends. The non - commercial net long positions and their ratios of CBOT soybean meal also had corresponding changes [42][44][46]. 3. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 523 tons, a 6.11% increase, mainly due to production increases in the EU and Canada. Consumption demand is expected to increase by 2.06%. International rapeseed trade volume may decline, and the inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio will further increase [53]. - As of November 2, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 18.84 tons. From August 1 to November 2, 2025, the export volume was 142.33 tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 131.87 tons [53]. 4. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - **Imports** - In October 2025, China imported 393.2 tons of soybeans, a 338.7 - ton decrease from September and a 123.5 - ton increase from October 2024, a 17.25% increase. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9568.2 tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - Forecasts show that 932.75 tons of soybeans are expected to arrive in October, 80 tons in November, and 800 tons in December. As of November 11, the procurement progress for November was 98.83%, 43.93% for December, 5.28% for January 2026, 32.63% for February, and 62.08% for March [65]. - **Crushing and Operating Rates** - As of the week ending November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 180.57 tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected that in the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the operating rate will rise significantly, with a predicted crushing volume of 215.79 tons and an operating rate of 59.36% [86]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - **Inventory** - As of the week ending November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 761.95 tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase from last year. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 51.40 tons, a 0.08 - ton decrease from last week [101]. - **Downstream Demand** - As of November 13, the total national soybean meal sales volume was 66.34 tons, a 22.11 - ton increase week - on - week. The daily average sales volume was 17.27 tons, a 3.22 - ton increase. The total soybean meal pick - up volume was 90 tons, a 2.05 - ton decrease week - on - week [119]. 5. Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price this week was in the range of 3010 - 3050 yuan per ton, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan per ton. The average basis of each region also showed mixed changes. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan per ton, and the basis of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan per ton [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of three major oils fluctuated yesterday, and the fundamentals of the oils maintained the existing pattern with slight differentiation among varieties. The palm oil production area remained highly productive, and the demand outlook weakened, exerting some pressure on prices [3] - The USDA may release a monthly supply and demand report next week, and there are some differences in the market. However, the South American production is still relatively optimistic. The recent China-US peace talks to reduce soybean tariffs have driven up CBOT soybeans, while the domestic market is basically stable. The rapeseed sector fluctuates greatly affected by China-Canada trade policies, and recent macro - policy changes need to be closely monitored [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8732.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +142 yuan and a range of +1.65%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8188.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +50.00 yuan and a range of +0.61%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9564.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +157.00 yuan and a range of +1.67% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8570.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +50.00 yuan and a range of +0.59%, and the spot basis was P01 - 162.00, with a change of -92.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8330.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +20.00 yuan/ton and a range of +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 142.00, with a change of -30.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9910.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +150.00 yuan and a range of +1.54%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 346.00, with a change of -7.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Aggregation - Imported soybeans: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 506 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (December shipment) was 506 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 500 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes were: 243 cents/bushel for the Gulf of Mexico (December shipment), unchanged from the previous trading day; 245 cents/bushel for the US West Coast (December shipment), down 3 cents/bushel; and 228 cents/bushel for Brazilian ports (December shipment), down 7 cents/bushel [2] - Imported oils: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1133 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1144 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton. The C&F quote for imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1100 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1080 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 521 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 529 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [2] - Palm oil production: According to the data of the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA), from November 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.32% month - on - month, and the production increased by 6.80% month - on - month [2] - Malaysian waste cooking oil export: The deputy minister of the Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (KPK) said that with the significant increase in the output of a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Johor, Malaysia's waste cooking oil exports will face "direct and moderate pressure" next year [2] - Brazilian agricultural product exports: According to the prediction of the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 3.77 million tons, higher than 2.34 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.23 million tons, higher than 1.73 million tons in the same period last year; corn exports are expected to be 5.57 million tons, higher than 4.92 million tons in the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are depleted with widespread shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand as the temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean meal. Recently, influenced by trade optimism, the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from lows and strengthened in the short - term. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened in the near - month. Oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted, and shutdowns are common, so rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. But the supply of soybean oil is abundant and has a good substitution advantage, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs. After a continuous decline, the rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from the low recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2,549 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The futures closing price of ICE rapeseed was 640.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1 Canadian dollar, and that of rapeseed was 5,120 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 391 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 133 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 2,830 hands to 211,735 hands, while those of rapeseed meal increased by 34,202 hands to 442,304 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil increased by 6,170 hands to - 2,365 hands, and those of rapeseed meal increased by 17,365 hands to 14,402 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 1,726 to 5,112, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 200 to 2,755 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,897.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,864.44 yuan/ton, down 11.84 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.75, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 216 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 1 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons, and the annual rapeseed production forecast was 13,446 thousand tons, up 1,068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 million tons, up 2 million tons, and that of rapeseed meal was 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 1 million tons, down 1 million tons, and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 1.6%, down 1.33 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit was 662 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 3,128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons, and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 450.86 billion yuan, up 1.29 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal was 21.78%, down 0.03 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil was 12.74%, down 1.43 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 25.75%, up 0.5 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 26.92%, up 0.18 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.7%, down 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.03%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures changed little on November 5, after significant price fluctuations in recent days, the market consolidated without a clear direction. The January rapeseed futures rose 0.30 Canadian dollars to close at 640.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years, which boosted the US soybean futures price and benefited the domestic meal market [2]. - The leaders of Canada and China met in South Korea last week but failed to make a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The rapeseed operation rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region from Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Driven by optimistic trade sentiment, the two meals have rebounded synchronously recently, and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate strongly. The trade policies between China and Canada and between China and the US should be monitored [2]. - International trade relations are expected to improve, causing rapeseed oil prices to decline again. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The trade policy direction between China and Canada should be continuously monitored [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and domestic rapeseed decreased, while ICE rapeseed futures increased. Most of the month - to - month spreads, positions, and net long positions decreased, and the number of rapeseed oil warrants remained unchanged while that of rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices of rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed meal increased. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased, and the import cost of rapeseed increased. The oil - meal ratio decreased, and the basis of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. The spot price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production is expected to increase, and China's rapeseed imports decreased. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased, and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed decreased. The import cost of rapeseed increased, and the import rapeseed crushing profit increased [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and eastern regions decreased. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Downstream Situation - The production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed meal decreased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day rapeseed meal decreased and increased respectively. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil increased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day rapeseed oil decreased [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose due to continued optimism about China - US trade negotiations in the Chicago soybean market. The US soybean harvest rate reached 84%, and the supply - side pressure continued to restrain its market price. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and President Xi Jinping will meet with President Trump in Busan, South Korea [2]. Rapeseed Meal Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The trade optimism supports the sharp rise of the US soybean market price, and domestic rapeseed meal continues to fluctuate strongly [2]. Rapeseed Oil Summary - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is over, and the supply - side pressure is high. The GAPKI expects an increase in Indonesian palm oil production, and the B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed has been implemented, and domestic rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory, but the demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Key Focus - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions on Myagric website on Monday, as well as the trade relations between China and Canada and between China and the US [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2) Core Views of the Report - **Overall View** - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the overall trend remaining bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, but its demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it has recently adjusted at high levels, suggesting short - term observation [2] - **Rapeseed Meal View** - Internationally, the harvest of Canadian rapeseed is nearly complete, and the bumper harvest has put pressure on prices. The US soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected bumper harvest restricts prices. Although the US soybean crushing volume has increased significantly, the export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. - Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is still restricted, resulting in less supply - side pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is decreasing as the temperature drops and the aquaculture demand weakens. Additionally, the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand for rapeseed meal [2] - **Rapeseed Oil View** - Internationally, the Indonesian government plans to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year, and the US biodiesel blending volume increased in September, which is beneficial to the international oil market. - Domestically, the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed has been announced. The supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in the de - stocking mode. However, the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil limit the demand for rapeseed oil [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 54 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 12 yuan/ton, the main contract position decreased by 9161 hands, the net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 3453 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 50 sheets [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 27 yuan/ton, the main contract position increased by 13879 hands, the net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 12187 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7540 sheets [2] - **Rapeseed**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the closing price of ICE rapeseed increased by 51 Canadian dollars/ton [2] Spot Market - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Nantong decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract increased by 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference with soybean meal remained unchanged [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, the average price decreased by 20.36 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract increased by 9 yuan/ton, the spot price difference with soybean oil remained unchanged, and the spot price difference with palm oil decreased by 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Rapeseed**: The import cost price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu increased by 0.02 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The annual predicted output of rapeseed increased by 1.38 thousand tons, and the global predicted output of rapeseed increased by 1068 thousand tons. The import volume of rapeseed decreased by 26 thousand tons, the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil decreased by 8.72 thousand tons, and the import volume of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.8 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - **Rapeseed Meal**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 13.13 yuan/ton, the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed remained at 0%, the coastal inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, the East China inventory decreased by 1 thousand tons, and the South China inventory increased by 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly delivery volume increased by 1.41 thousand tons [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.53 thousand tons, the coastal inventory decreased by 0.37 thousand tons, the East China inventory decreased by 0.7 thousand tons, and the Guangxi inventory decreased by 0.4 thousand tons. The weekly delivery volume decreased by 0.12 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail reached 99.9 billion yuan. The monthly output of feed was 2927.2 thousand tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 thousand tons [2] Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money put options increased by 0.13%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options remained unchanged at 21.35%, the 20 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.15% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.08%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options remained unchanged at 13.84%, the 20 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05% [2] Industry News - The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed down 0.30 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 630 Canadian dollars/ton. The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively, and the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans restricts prices. The export pressure of US soybeans remains, but the large increase in the crushing volume supports prices [2] Key Points to Watch - Monitor the rapeseed opening rate, the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, especially the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the futures prices dropped from high levels this week, with the 01 contract closing at 9,861 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is nearly complete, and the expected high - yield exerts pressure on its price. Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year benefits the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has been rising for seven consecutive months. In China, the preliminary ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit rapeseed oil demand to mainly rigid needs. The market should continue to monitor China - Canada trade policies [8]. - For rapeseed meal, the futures prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the 01 contract closing at 2,306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton from the previous week. Favorable weather in the US Midwest promotes soybean harvesting, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restrains its price. Although the US soybean crushing volume has increased significantly, the lack of data due to the US government shutdown makes the market cautious. In China, the China - Canada trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed will be restricted in the fourth quarter, with relatively low supply pressure. But as the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture weakens, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal reduce the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market should continue to pay attention to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Rapeseed Oil Strategy**: Monitor the support level of the 60 - day moving average and mainly participate in the long - term in a bullish manner [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal Strategy**: Participate mainly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: This week, rapeseed oil futures dropped from high levels, with a total open interest of 281,371 lots, a decrease of 32,617 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures continued to decline, with a total open interest of 367,868 lots, a decrease of 3,840 lots from last week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net long positions in rapeseed oil futures decreased from +15,954 to +11,597, while the top 20 net short positions in rapeseed meal futures increased from - 63,260 to - 93,955 [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 7,590 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 7,702 lots [27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,160 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price is +299 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,410 yuan/ton, lower than last week, and the basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price is +104 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is +386 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is +30 yuan/ton, both at medium levels compared to the same period in previous years [50]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is 4.276, and the average spot price ratio is 4.05 [53]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,605 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 553 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 562 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 470 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Rapeseed Supply**: As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 are 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 505,000 tons respectively. As of October 16, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +1,291 yuan/ton. As of the 41st week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills is 600 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 1.47%. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 348,000 tons (58.52%) and a month - on - month increase of 70,600 tons [73][77][81][85]. - **Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 629,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (0.41%) from last week. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (16.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.506 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue is 449.57 billion yuan. As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 51,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (2.87%) from last week [90][94][98]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand**: As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 10,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (41.67%) from last week. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9,600 tons (4.72%) and a month - on - month increase of 30,300 tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.9272 million tons [102][106][110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of October 17, this week, rapeseed meal continued to decline, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 20.69%, a 0.69% increase from 20% last week, slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [113]. 3.5 Representative Enterprise - The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Daodaoquan, but no specific data analysis is provided [115]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. After two days of sharp decline, the futures price rose with reduced positions to repair the moving - average deviation, and short - term participation is recommended [2] - For rapeseed oil, Canadian rapeseed is expected to have a high yield, which exerts pressure on its price. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited with a loose supply - demand situation. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases keep supply pressure low. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The tight supply expectation makes rapeseed oil lead the rise in the oil market, and the Sino - Canadian trade policy trend should be monitored [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10142 yuan/ton, up 221; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49; ICE rapeseed (active) is 617.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.3; rapeseed (active contract) is 5281 yuan/ton, up 1 [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 484 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 41507 yuan/ton, up 101 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 39516 lots, up 21725; rapeseed meal is - 51747 lots, up 21457 [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 8057 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 9245 sheets, unchanged [2] - Main - contract open interest: Rapeseed oil is 347712 lots; rapeseed meal is 378057 lots, down 20054 [2] 现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan/ton, up 70; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2490 yuan/ton, up 40; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8430 yuan/ton, up 80; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9170 yuan/ton, up 150; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, up 40 [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 10105 yuan/ton, up 70 [2] - Import cost: Imported rapeseed is 7704.7 yuan/ton, up 0.1 [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio is 3.93, down 0.03; rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price difference is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10; rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price difference is 870 yuan/ton, down 80; soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is - 102 yuan/ton, down 151; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 9 [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; annual forecast for a certain area is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 12 [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal are 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] 产业情况 - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] 下游情况 - Feed production is 2927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] - Edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] 期权市场 - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.79%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.78%, up 0.9%; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 24.01%, up 0.41% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; 20 - day historical volatility is 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures were nearly flat on Wednesday, with little guidance from the soybean oil market. CBOT soybean futures fell on Wednesday due to concerns about US export demand. Rapeseed meal 2601 contract rose 1.58% on Thursday. US soybeans are in the harvest period, and the expected high yield restrains prices. The Sino - US soybean trade situation remains deadlocked, and Argentina's export policy changes affect the market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it's recommended to take a bullish approach and monitor China - Canada trade relations. This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher in a volatile manner. Although Canada's rapeseed harvest is expected to be a bumper one, there are uncertainties in China - Canada trade policies. Domestically, the开机率 of oil mills is low, and the supply of rapeseed in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, it's advised to trade in the short - term and pay attention to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined in a volatile way. The USDA report is bearish, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting rapeseed meal supply and demand [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate with a bullish bias and focus on China - Canada trade [7]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher in a volatile way, with the 01 - contract closing at 10,068 yuan/ton, up 211 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, the highest since 2018. However, the Canadian government may adjust policies to avoid Chinese import tariffs on rapeseed. In the US, the bio - diesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited. But for rapeseed oil itself, the oil mill's开机率 is low, and the supply of rapeseed in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Trade in the short - term and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [10]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined in a volatile way, with the 01 - contract closing at 2,522 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [11]. - Outlook: The USDA report is bearish. Domestically, the supply of rapeseed in the near - term is low, and the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is seasonally increasing. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal and the expected increase in domestic soybean imports suppress the rapeseed meal market [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 352,429 lots, up 61,295 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures slightly declined with a total position of 381,171 lots, down 21,729 lots from the previous week [16]. - Top 20 Net Positions: This week, the top 20 net long position of rapeseed oil futures increased, and the top 20 net short position of rapeseed meal futures increased [22]. - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 8,202 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 9,248 lots [26][27]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,320 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, with a basis of + 252 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,550 yuan/ton, with little change from last week, and the basis is + 28 yuan/ton [36][42]. - Futures Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 500 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is + 135 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [47]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal in the 01 - contract is 3.99, and the average spot price ratio is 3.94 [50]. - Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals: The 01 - contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil is 1,740 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil - palm oil is 752 yuan/ton, both widening this week. The 01 - contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal is 492 yuan/ton, and the spot spread is 380 yuan/ton [59][65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast: As of September 12, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 100,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in September, October, and November 2025 are 195,000, 150,000, and 450,000 tons respectively [71]. - Supply - Import and Pressing Profit: As of September 18, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1,244 yuan/ton [75]. - Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume: As of the 37th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills is 61,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last week, with an开机率 of 14.92% [79]. - Supply - Monthly Import Volume: In July 2025, China's rapeseed import volume is 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [83]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply - Inventory and Import Volume: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil is 683,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. In August 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil is 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.67% and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [87]. - Demand - Consumption and Production: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.769 million tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue is 449.57 billion yuan [91]. - Demand - Weekly Contract Volume: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume is 81,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.45% [95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Weekly Inventory: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal is 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [99]. - Supply - Import Volume: In July 2025, China's rapeseed meal import volume is 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [103]. - Demand - Feed Monthly Production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed production is 2.8273 million tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of September 19, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 22.49%, up 1.1% from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [110].