Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's exchange rate system since the 1994 reform, emphasizing the importance of market-driven mechanisms and the gradual move towards a more market-oriented exchange rate for the Renminbi (RMB) [1][2][12]. Summary by Sections Exchange Rate Reform History - The 1994 exchange rate reform established a managed floating exchange rate system, transitioning from a dual exchange rate system to a unified market-based rate [2][3]. - The initial phase of the reform faced significant challenges, including capital outflows and a decline in foreign reserves, leading to a depreciation of the RMB [2][3]. - By 2017, the introduction of a counter-cyclical adjustment factor improved the exchange rate mechanism, allowing for a more accurate reflection of economic fundamentals [2][3]. Market Dynamics and Currency Valuation - Since the 1994 reform, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased significantly, reaching $32,407 billion by March 2025, with a net increase driven primarily by trading activities [4]. - The RMB has appreciated against both bilateral and multilateral currencies, with a nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) increase of 64.2% since 1994 [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified the RMB as one of the currencies that is stronger than its fundamental equilibrium exchange rate level [8]. Current Exchange Rate Challenges - The article highlights the ongoing challenges in achieving a balanced exchange rate, noting that market perceptions can lead to significant deviations from economic fundamentals [9][10]. - Recent trends indicate a potential undervaluation of the RMB despite a growing trade surplus, suggesting a complex interplay between domestic economic conditions and external pressures [7][12]. - The central bank has emphasized the need for stability in the RMB exchange rate, particularly in response to market fluctuations and external economic conditions [12][13]. Future Outlook - The article concludes that while significant progress has been made towards a market-oriented exchange rate, further efforts are needed to overcome the "fear of floating" and fully realize a market-driven exchange rate system [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market is continuously improving, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [1] Macro Level Summary - The market-oriented formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate is being continuously improved, leading to increased exchange rate flexibility that can timely release external pressures and promote supply-demand balance [1] Micro Level Summary - Awareness of exchange rate risk neutrality among enterprises is steadily increasing, with RMB cross-border transactions growing steadily. In the first half of the year, the proportion of enterprises' foreign exchange hedging and the proportion of RMB cross-border receipts and payments under goods trade both reached around 30%, marking historical highs. This reduction in foreign exchange risk exposure helps maintain rational trading in the market [1] Policy Level Summary - The foreign exchange market has accumulated rich experience in counter-cyclical regulation and has a wealth of policy tools in reserve. The effectiveness of foreign exchange regulation is steadily improving, and the ability to prevent and mitigate external shock risks is continuously enhanced. There is confidence and capability to maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

3月25日—28日，博鳌亚洲论坛2025年年会在海南博鳌举行。在全球经济高度互联的背景下，发达经济体货币政策的外溢效应尤为显著，全球经济正经历多 重不确定性冲击，如何在复杂多变的国际环境中应对挑战，也成为本次论坛热议的话题。 在3月27日举行的"不稳定世界中寻找货币与金融稳定"分论坛上，中国人民银行副行长宣昌能与国家外汇管理局副局长李斌围绕这一议题，阐述了中国在货 币政策、汇率调控等方面的实践经验。 面对复杂多变的外部环境，中国通过坚持"以我为主"的政策导向、完善市场化汇率形成机制、强化宏观审慎管理等举措，保持中国经济更可持续、更高质量 地发展。宣昌能强调，中国实施适度宽松货币政策的立场是明确的，货币政策有足够空间，人民银行将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机 降准降息。 货币政策适度宽松与结构优化 "当前国内外环境正经历深刻变化，货币政策面临前所未有的不确定性。"会上，宣昌能如是说道。 近年来，全球经济复苏乏力叠加地缘政治风险，发达经济体货币政策大放大收，对其他主要经济体构成严峻挑战。进入2025年后，美国激进的关税政策进一 步加剧市场担忧。同时，中国经济正处于从高速增长向高质量发展转型的关键阶 ...