朱鹤新表示，展望未来，我国经济基本面长期向好，高水平对外开放稳步推进，这奠定了国际收支自主 平衡格局的稳定。同时，人民币汇率市场化形成机制不断完善，外汇市场宏观审慎管理更加有效，所以 我们应对外部风险挑战的底气更足，将为"十五五"我国外汇市场健康发展提供更加坚实的保障。 期货日报记者网讯（记者 杨美）9月22日，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题 新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"时期金融业发展成就。国家外汇局局长朱鹤新在会上提到，"十四五"以来， 我国外汇市场交易理性有序，稳健性增强。人民币汇率双向浮动、弹性增强，发挥了宏观经济和国际收 支自动稳定器的功能。企业外汇套期保值的比率已经由2020年的17%上升到30%左右，人民币在跨境贸 易中的占比由16%上升到近30%，外汇市场韧性进一步增强。同时，外汇市场宏观审慎管理体系逐步健 全，逆周期调节工具箱更加丰富。近年来面对高波动的国际市场环境，我国跨境资金流动总体均衡，人 民币汇率在主要货币中的表现比较稳健。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and future prospects of China's currency exchange rate reform, emphasizing the importance of marketization in the exchange rate system and the need to overcome "floating fear" to achieve a fully market-oriented exchange rate [1][18]. Summary by Sections Exchange Rate Reform Background - On August 11, 2015, the People's Bank of China announced improvements to the RMB/USD exchange rate quotation mechanism to enhance marketization [2]. - The initial phase of the reform faced significant challenges, including capital outflows and a decline in foreign reserves, leading to a depreciation of the RMB [2]. - By the end of 2016, the RMB exchange rate had fallen to around 7, with foreign reserves nearing a critical level of $3 trillion [2]. Marketization as a Key Theme - Marketization is identified as the main thread of the exchange rate reform, with the consensus that the mechanism is more important than the level of the exchange rate itself [3][4]. - The reform is seen as a continuation of the market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism established since the 1994 exchange rate reform [4]. Historical Context of Exchange Rate Mechanism - Prior to the 1994 reform, China had a dual exchange rate system, which transitioned to a managed floating exchange rate system [5][6]. - The exchange rate reform in 1994 was not solely about depreciation but was also influenced by broader financial reforms, including the introduction of an export tax rebate system [5]. Exchange Rate Trends and Performance - Since the 1994 reform, the RMB has appreciated significantly against major currencies, with a nominal appreciation of 21.5% by July 2025 compared to early 1994 [7]. - The RMB's nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and real effective exchange rate (REER) have also shown substantial appreciation, ranking high among 57 currencies [7]. Equilibrium Exchange Rate Concept - The concept of an equilibrium exchange rate is discussed, indicating that it is difficult to define and measure accurately [9]. - Historical examples illustrate that the RMB has often defied expectations regarding its valuation, such as during the 1994 and 2005 reforms [10]. Current Exchange Rate Dynamics - Recent trends show that the RMB's REER has depreciated, raising questions about whether it is undervalued or overvalued based on trade surpluses and domestic economic conditions [11]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified the RMB as one of the currencies that is stronger than its fundamental equilibrium level [12]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The article emphasizes that the marketization of the RMB exchange rate is still ongoing, with increasing awareness of exchange rate risks and the need for further reforms [18]. - The flexibility of the exchange rate policy has improved, allowing it to act as a buffer against internal and external shocks, but it also faces challenges from market sentiment and potential over-adjustments [17].

Core Viewpoint - The "8·11" exchange rate reform marks a significant step towards the market-oriented formation of the RMB exchange rate, transitioning from a rigid peg to a more flexible and market-driven pricing mechanism [2][4][7]. Exchange Rate Reform Impact - The reform has led to increased elasticity in the RMB exchange rate, allowing for both appreciation and depreciation, with fluctuations expanding from less than 1% to over 10% [5][7]. - The dual reference pricing model, based on the previous day's closing rate and a basket of currencies, has effectively transferred the pricing power of the RMB from the central bank to the foreign exchange market [3][4]. Market Stability and Regulation - Regulatory authorities have enhanced tools for managing the foreign exchange market, effectively curbing excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and maintaining stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [6][8]. - The balance of non-reserve foreign financial assets and liabilities is nearly 1:1, indicating improved self-balancing capabilities of the foreign exchange market compared to a decade ago [6]. Corporate Risk Management - Domestic enterprises have significantly improved their awareness of foreign exchange risk management, with the ratio of foreign exchange hedging and RMB cross-border transactions reaching historical highs of around 30% [9][10]. - Companies are encouraged to adapt their risk management systems to align with ongoing reforms, ensuring long-term operational stability [10]. Future Directions - The future focus will be on cautiously advancing the internationalization of the RMB, with an emphasis on enhancing its role in the global monetary system [12][13]. - The regulatory framework will likely become more flexible regarding offshore RMB liquidity management, aiming to balance efficiency and safety in cross-border capital flows [15].

Core Viewpoint - The "8.11 Exchange Rate Reform" has become a significant milestone in China's financial reform history, marking a key point in the market-oriented process of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism [1] Group 1: Economic Environment Before Reform - The international economic and financial environment was complex, with a clear recovery in the US economy and expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading to a strong dollar [3] - Emerging market currencies faced depreciation pressures, while the RMB's nominal effective exchange rate appreciated by 11.6% and the real effective exchange rate by 11.3% from July 2014 to July 2015 [3] Group 2: Restructuring of the Central Parity Rate - The central parity rate of the RMB had lost its authoritative status due to increasing deviations from market rates, necessitating a reform to enhance its market-based nature [4] - Starting from August 11, 2015, market makers were required to reference the previous day's closing rate and consider supply-demand conditions and international currency fluctuations, making the central parity rate more aligned with market realities [4] - The reform aimed to strengthen the decisive role of market supply and demand in exchange rate formation and to correct deviations between the central parity and market rates [4] Group 3: Continuous Improvement of Marketization - Since the implementation of the "8.11 Exchange Rate Reform," the central bank has continuously improved the managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand [5] - The RMB exchange rate has shown a dual fluctuation pattern, with significant increases in exchange rate elasticity and better functioning of macroeconomic stabilizers [5] - In the first quarter of the year, the RMB against the USD fluctuated between 7.1688 and 7.1891, with 28 days of appreciation and 29 days of depreciation, indicating a clear dual fluctuation characteristic [5] Group 4: Resilience of the RMB - In the context of dramatic changes in the external environment and global currency market volatility, the resilience of the RMB has exceeded market expectations [6] - The RMB appreciated slightly against the USD while maintaining stability in the CFETS basket of RMB exchange rate indices, supported by strong domestic macroeconomic policies [6]

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian reported a record high revenue of 360.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, with a net profit of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.6% [2] - In Q2, the revenue exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.34 billion yuan, a 35.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.88 billion yuan, up 51.1% [2] Group 2 - A-share indices collectively rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year, up over 2% for the week [3] - The market is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, with quality tech assets expected to yield significant excess returns in Q3 [3] Group 3 - Major foreign investment projects are progressing steadily, with new policies to encourage foreign investment being implemented [4] - Cities like Wenzhou, Dalian, and Xuzhou have GDP growth rates exceeding 6%, with potential to join the "trillion-dollar club" by year-end [4] Group 4 - In July, the consumer price index (CPI) in Guangdong turned positive, rising 0.5% month-on-month, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% [5] - Hong Kong saw a record number of registered local companies, exceeding 1.5 million, with significant direct investment and job creation [5] Group 5 - Nearly 50 A-share companies have disclosed interim dividend plans, with major firms like China Mobile announcing substantial dividends [6] - The Hong Kong Investment Management Company is focusing on nurturing local startups and investing in quality enterprises [7] Group 6 - The A-share market is expected to face some resistance in the short term but remains in a bull market, with industry rotation accelerating [8] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of 900.8 billion HKD, indicating a strong preference for Chinese concept stocks [8] Group 7 - The new science and technology bond policy has led to a significant issuance of 880.66 billion yuan in three months, with a low average coupon rate [21] - Gold futures prices reached a historical high, driven by geopolitical factors and central bank policies [22]

Core Insights - The "8·11 Exchange Rate Reform" was a significant step towards enhancing the market-oriented nature of the RMB to USD exchange rate, reflecting the central bank's commitment to allowing market forces to play a larger role [1][3] - Over the past decade, the central bank has steadily deepened the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism, leading to increased flexibility and stability of the RMB exchange rate [1][4] Summary by Sections Background of the Reform - Prior to the "8·11 Reform," the international economic landscape was complex, with the US economy recovering and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, leading to a stronger USD and weaker currencies in other regions [2] - From July 2014 to July 2015, the nominal and real effective exchange rates of the RMB appreciated by 11.6% and 11.3%, respectively, indicating a significant deviation from market expectations [2] Mechanism of the Reform - The reform aimed to enhance the market-oriented nature and benchmark status of the RMB to USD exchange rate by adjusting the middle price quotation mechanism [3] - The central bank emphasized the importance of market supply and demand in determining the exchange rate, allowing for appropriate adjustments to return to a reasonable equilibrium level [3] Market Developments Post-Reform - Since the reform, the RMB exchange rate has exhibited increased elasticity, with both appreciation and depreciation becoming common, thus better serving as a stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [4][5] - In the first quarter of 2025, the RMB to USD exchange rate middle price fluctuated between 7.1688 and 7.1891, with a near-even split of appreciation and depreciation days [5] Future Directions for Reform - The central bank plans to continue enhancing the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, allowing for timely adjustments to reflect market demands and economic fundamentals [6] - The reform has also facilitated the RMB's inclusion in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, promoting its internationalization [7] Internationalization of the RMB - The central bank's recent meetings have prioritized the steady and cautious advancement of RMB internationalization, focusing on expanding its use in trade settlements and enhancing its financing capabilities [7][8] - Future efforts will include deepening trade settlement scenarios, strengthening financing functions, and improving the offshore market system to enhance the RMB's attractiveness as an investment currency [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's exchange rate system since the 1994 reform, emphasizing the importance of market-driven mechanisms and the gradual move towards a more market-oriented exchange rate for the Renminbi (RMB) [1][2][12]. Summary by Sections Exchange Rate Reform History - The 1994 exchange rate reform established a managed floating exchange rate system, transitioning from a dual exchange rate system to a unified market-based rate [2][3]. - The initial phase of the reform faced significant challenges, including capital outflows and a decline in foreign reserves, leading to a depreciation of the RMB [2][3]. - By 2017, the introduction of a counter-cyclical adjustment factor improved the exchange rate mechanism, allowing for a more accurate reflection of economic fundamentals [2][3]. Market Dynamics and Currency Valuation - Since the 1994 reform, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased significantly, reaching $32,407 billion by March 2025, with a net increase driven primarily by trading activities [4]. - The RMB has appreciated against both bilateral and multilateral currencies, with a nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) increase of 64.2% since 1994 [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified the RMB as one of the currencies that is stronger than its fundamental equilibrium exchange rate level [8]. Current Exchange Rate Challenges - The article highlights the ongoing challenges in achieving a balanced exchange rate, noting that market perceptions can lead to significant deviations from economic fundamentals [9][10]. - Recent trends indicate a potential undervaluation of the RMB despite a growing trade surplus, suggesting a complex interplay between domestic economic conditions and external pressures [7][12]. - The central bank has emphasized the need for stability in the RMB exchange rate, particularly in response to market fluctuations and external economic conditions [12][13]. Future Outlook - The article concludes that while significant progress has been made towards a market-oriented exchange rate, further efforts are needed to overcome the "fear of floating" and fully realize a market-driven exchange rate system [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market is continuously improving, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [1] Macro Level Summary - The market-oriented formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate is being continuously improved, leading to increased exchange rate flexibility that can timely release external pressures and promote supply-demand balance [1] Micro Level Summary - Awareness of exchange rate risk neutrality among enterprises is steadily increasing, with RMB cross-border transactions growing steadily. In the first half of the year, the proportion of enterprises' foreign exchange hedging and the proportion of RMB cross-border receipts and payments under goods trade both reached around 30%, marking historical highs. This reduction in foreign exchange risk exposure helps maintain rational trading in the market [1] Policy Level Summary - The foreign exchange market has accumulated rich experience in counter-cyclical regulation and has a wealth of policy tools in reserve. The effectiveness of foreign exchange regulation is steadily improving, and the ability to prevent and mitigate external shock risks is continuously enhanced. There is confidence and capability to maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]