金沙中国有限公司(1928.HK)：业绩渐回稳健轨道 伦敦人增长带动市占率提升 金沙中国有限公司 (01928.HK)：得益于再投资率项目 公司市场份额增长= 大行评级丨摩根大通：预测澳门12月博彩总收入 增长15%以上 长期首选银河娱乐 银河娱乐(00027.HK)因股份奖励计划获采纳发行434.47万股 相关事件 摩根大通发表研报指，澳门11月博彩总收入按年增长14%至211亿澳门元，恢复至疫情前水平的92%， 为疫情爆发以来的最佳复苏表现。摩通认为，目前预测12月博彩总收入增长15%以上，但所有迹象均显 示有上行风险；又认为即使录得逾20%增长亦不奇怪，很可能使2025年以全年最佳业绩收官。 该行短期(约6个月内)看好金沙中国，因其有望于2026年提高股息(2月下旬)，并预计其在2025年第四季 度将赢取市场及利润份额。长期而言(12个月以上)，银河娱乐仍是其长期首选，因该行认为银娱兼具强 劲价值与长期增长潜力，且第四期工程(预计2027年开业)的潜在价值可能于明年某个时候反映在股价 中。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，澳门11月博彩收入再度优于预期，同比增长14.4%至211亿澳门 元，较该行预测及市场共识高出3%至4%。这意味在2025年全运会于11月21日结束后，11月24日至30日 期间日均博彩收入达7.84亿澳门元。里昂认为，此强劲收尾预示澳门12月博彩收入将迎来强劲开端。该 行预计12月博彩收入将同比增长15%至209亿澳门元。由于去年澳门实施了约两周的交通管制，上行风 险显著。首选标的为银河娱乐(00027)及美高梅中国(02282)。 ...

Core Insights - Macau's gaming revenue for November reached MOP 21.09 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [1] - Cumulative gaming revenue for the first 11 months of the year totaled MOP 226.52 billion, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth [1] Monthly Revenue Summary - January: MOP 18.254 billion (down 5.6% YoY) [2] - February: MOP 19.744 billion (up 6.8% YoY) [2] - March: MOP 19.659 billion (up 0.8% YoY) [2] - April: MOP 18.858 billion (up 1.7% YoY) [2] - May: MOP 21.193 billion (up 5.0% YoY) [2] - June: MOP 21.064 billion (up 19.0% YoY) [2] - July: MOP 22.125 billion (up 19.0% YoY) [2] - August: MOP 22.156 billion (up 12.2% YoY) [2] - September: MOP 18.289 billion (up 6.0% YoY) [2] - October: MOP 24.086 billion (up 15.9% YoY) [2] - November: MOP 21.088 billion (up 14.4% YoY) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks in Macau have shown a general upward trend, with significant increases in share prices for major companies such as MGM China, Melco International Development, Sands China, and Galaxy Entertainment, indicating positive market sentiment towards the gaming sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - MGM China shares rose by 3.68% to HKD 16.64 [1] - Melco International Development shares increased by 2.65% to HKD 5.04 [1] - Sands China shares went up by 2.42% to HKD 21.16 [1] - Galaxy Entertainment shares climbed by 2.07% to HKD 40.52 [1] Group 2: Revenue Insights - According to a recent report by JPMorgan, the total gaming revenue for the first 23 days of the month reached MOP 15.6 billion, averaging MOP 678 million per day [1] - Although the average daily revenue decreased by 4% week-on-week to MOP 642 million due to high base effects, the trend for the month shows a growth of over 10% compared to November of last year [1] - This performance aligns with JPMorgan's forecast of a 13% year-on-year growth for Macau gaming revenue in the fourth quarter, suggesting potential upside [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a general rise in gaming stocks, with specific increases noted for major companies such as MGM China, Melco International Development, Sands China, and Galaxy Entertainment [1] - According to a recent report from JPMorgan, the total gaming revenue for the first 23 days of the month reached 15.6 billion MOP, averaging 678 million MOP per day [1] - Although the average daily revenue decreased by 4% week-on-week to 642 million MOP due to high base effects, the trend for the month indicates a growth of over 10% compared to November of last year [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's forecast for Macau gaming revenue growth in Q4 this year is 13% year-on-year, with indications of moderate upside potential based on current trends [1] - The report suggests that while gaming revenue is slightly strong, the stock prices of gaming companies are relatively low, but there is optimism for the trend of gaming stocks in the coming year [1]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported strong Q3 2025 results, driven by increased gaming table bets, with total revenue reaching approximately HKD 8.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.39% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately HKD 8.51 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.39% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was around HKD 2.373 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [1] Market Position and Outlook - CICC's report indicates that MGM China's Q3 2025 performance exceeded market consensus expectations, driven by high-end demand [1] - The total gaming revenue for MGM Cotai and MGM Macau has recovered to 170% and 104% of Q3 2019 levels, respectively [1] - Management anticipates that MGM China will achieve over USD 100 million in EBITDA by October 2025, potentially setting historical highs for monthly revenue and EBITDA figures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue for the first 26 days of October reached 20.4 billion MOP, with an average daily revenue of 785 million MOP, reflecting pent-up demand during the Golden Week due to previous disruptions from a typhoon and the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The report suggests a significant upward trend in gaming revenue, with total revenue for October potentially reaching 23 billion MOP, marking a 71-month high [1] - Starting from December, due to a low base, the firm anticipates double-digit growth in gaming revenue, maintaining low double-digit increases into the first quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - The company is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128), assigning an "Overweight" rating, expecting its Q3 performance to exceed expectations [1] - For the medium term, Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is also viewed positively, receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - The company holds a negative outlook on SJM Holdings (00880) and Melco International (00200), assigning "Neutral" and "Underweight" ratings respectively, citing high valuations relative to fundamentals and limited shareholder returns over the next 12 months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's gaming revenue for the first 26 days of October reached 20.4 billion MOP, indicating a potential upward trend in gaming revenue due to pent-up demand from the Golden Week holiday [1] Industry Summary - The average daily gaming revenue for October is 785 million MOP, with last week's revenue accelerating to 793 million MOP, reflecting increased activity post-typhoon and mid-autumn festival [1] - The total gaming revenue for October could reach 23 billion MOP, potentially marking a 71-month high [1] - Starting from December, a low base is expected to drive double-digit growth in gaming revenue, continuing into the first quarter of next year with low double-digit increases [1] Company Summary - Wynn Macau (01128) is viewed positively in the short term, with an "Overweight" rating and expectations for third-quarter performance to exceed forecasts [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is also favored in the medium term, receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - The outlook for SJM Holdings (00880) and Melco International (00200) is less favorable, with "Neutral" and "Underweight" ratings respectively, as their valuations are considered high relative to fundamentals, and shareholder returns over the next 12 months are expected to be limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its 2025 total gaming revenue forecast for Macau while raising the 2026 forecast, expecting total gaming revenue to grow by 9% and 5% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels respectively [1] Industry Summary - The estimated industry EBITDA for Q3 is projected to reach $2.108 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2%, recovering to 91% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Total gaming revenue remains resilient; however, increased market competition and rising reinvestment rates are putting pressure on EBITDA [1] Company Summary - CICC is optimistic about MGM China and Sands China, forecasting adjusted EBITDA for Q3 to be HKD 2.352 billion and $590 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19% and 1% [1] - Target prices for MGM China and Sands China are set at HKD 19.8 and HKD 23.8, both receiving an "outperform" rating [1]

Core Insights - The gaming stocks have collectively risen, with Sands China up 5.04%, Wynn Macau up 4.6%, Melco International Development up 4.45%, and Galaxy Entertainment up 3.94% [1] Industry Summary - CICC maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 5% respectively, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The brokerage anticipates mass gaming revenue to grow by 7% and 6% in the next two years, reaching 119% and 126% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue is projected to increase by 19% in 2025 but decrease by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Company Insights - Huatai Securities notes that despite temporary disruptions from typhoons during the National Day holiday and late September, the number of visitors to Macau has met government expectations and exceeded levels from the same period in 2019 when excluding weather impacts [1] - The daily gaming revenue during the National Day holiday showed a slight year-on-year increase [1] - Key drivers for the sector post-holiday include policies like "one permit, multiple entries" between Zhuhai and Macau, the wealth effect from "gold stocks," and the synergistic effects of non-gaming events such as the NBA China Games and the National Games [1]