Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The central bank net withdrew 47.51 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upside space is limited. Short-term investors can buy on dips [3] - There are arbitrage opportunities in Treasury bond futures as the IRR is higher than the short-term financing rate this week [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, the service production index increased by 6%, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1%. From January to April, national fixed asset investment increased by 4% year-on-year, and after excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 8%. From January to April, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8%. Dario warned that Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating underestimates the risks faced by US Treasury bonds, as it does not consider the risk of the federal government repaying debts by printing money [4] - **Treasury Bond Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The central bank net withdrew 47.51 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upside space is limited. Short-term investors can buy on dips [3] II. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The week-on-week decline rates of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were -0.15%, -0.50%, -0.52%, and -1.35% respectively [5] III. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [9] IV. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Treasury Bond CTD Bond Arbitrage Situation**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12] V. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis also narrowed [13] VI. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure flattened compared to May 13th, and short- and medium-term yields increased [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank net withdrew 78.17 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly rose last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, and the yield is still in a low range. In the medium - and long - term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: Domestically, the joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US canceled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly canceled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. Abroad, interest rate swap contracts tracking Fed meeting expectations show that the Fed may only cut interest rates by about 55 basis points this year, a significant drop from the 75 - basis - point bet last Friday. Traders expect the first rate cut to start in September [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank net withdrew 78.17 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly rose last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, and the yield is still in a low range. In the medium - and long - term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly changes of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were - 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.06%, and - 0.33% respectively [5] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates rose slightly, and the yield spread widened [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [11] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis also narrowed [12] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 6th, and the yield has risen [17]

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/29 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货小幅回调 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2506 | 102.432 | 102.284 | -0.14% | 169346 | 95758 | 1.77 | | TF2506 | 106.23 | 105.935 | -0.28% | 222653 | 161177 | 1.38 | | T2506 | 109.025 | 108.77 | -0.23% | 287933 | 184318 | 1.56 | | TL2506 | 119.7 | 119.68 | -0.02% | 468861 | 105659 | 4.44 | 数据来源：博易大师、华金期货 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货小幅回调。资金方面，上周央行净投放8640亿元。上周十年期国债利率略升；长期看， 十年期国债利率处于历史低 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: April 15, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports increasing by 6.9% and imports decreasing by 6%. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, said that Trump's tariff policies may trigger an economic recession in the US, which is on the verge of an economic recession [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan last week. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and is at a historical low in the long term. The T2506 contract price is above the 40 - day moving average. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is low. In the medium - to - long term, the upside is limited, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [3]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The weekly price increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.11%, 0.24%, 0.35%, and 0.66% respectively [5]. 3. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Movements**: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread widened [8]. 4. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting arbitrage opportunities [11]. 5. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis converged [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The treasury bond term structure is steeper than on April 7, and the yield has increased [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report issuer: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] - Report date: April 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly, with the central bank net withdrawing 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 4: Macro and Market Outlook Weekly Macro and News - Domestic news: Affected by overseas tariff shocks, the A - share market adjusted on Monday. Near the market close, Central Huijin announced its confidence in the Chinese capital market, its recognition of the current A - share allocation value, and its plan to continue increasing holdings of ETFs to maintain market stability. - Foreign news: The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, which China firmly opposed. If the US tariff measures were implemented, China would take counter - measures [4] Treasury Bond Market Outlook - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The central bank net withdrew 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and was at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Market Conditions - Price trend: Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The weekly increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.08%, 0.46%, 0.65%, and 2.37% respectively. The weekly trading volumes were 150,904, 199,092, 274,713, and 463,907 respectively, and the weekly open interests were 99,012, 164,270, 183,347, and 105,109 respectively [5] Group 6: Treasury Bond Yield Changes - Yield changes: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread narrowed. The interest rates of 3M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y treasury bonds showed a downward trend from March 28 to April 3 [8] Group 7: Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Treasury bond CTD bond arbitrage situation: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities. For the T2506 and TF2506 contracts, the IRR showed an upward trend from March 28 to April 3 [11] Group 8: Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - TF - T spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened. From March 28 to April 3, the TF - T spread of the T2506 - TF2506 contracts changed from - 2.225 to - 2.440 [12] Group 9: Treasury Bond Term Structure - Treasury bond term structure: The treasury bond term structure flattened compared to last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 31 [15]