Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading session, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined. The domestic manufacturing PMI improved in May, but the overall economy is still in the process of adjustment and transformation. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the capital market will remain relatively loose, which still supports the prices of treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent trade negotiations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Price and Yield**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined, with the 10Y treasury bond yield dropping 1.9bp to 1.68%. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of some contracts increased, such as T2509 and TL2509. The trading volume varied among different contracts [2]. - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunity [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined, with the 10Y treasury bond yield dropping to 1.68% [2]. Overseas Market - The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds generally rose. The 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - A total of 16026 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the central bank's open market this week. In May, the central bank conducted 7000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations and did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading operations. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point. The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China, and Trump announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates rose, and the yields of US treasury bonds rose across the board [3]. Comment and Strategy - The domestic economy is in the process of adjustment and transformation. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the capital market will remain loose, which supports the prices of treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The central bank net withdrew 47.51 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upside space is limited. Short-term investors can buy on dips [3] - There are arbitrage opportunities in Treasury bond futures as the IRR is higher than the short-term financing rate this week [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, the service production index increased by 6%, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1%. From January to April, national fixed asset investment increased by 4% year-on-year, and after excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 8%. From January to April, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8%. Dario warned that Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating underestimates the risks faced by US Treasury bonds, as it does not consider the risk of the federal government repaying debts by printing money [4] - **Treasury Bond Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The central bank net withdrew 47.51 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upside space is limited. Short-term investors can buy on dips [3] II. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The week-on-week decline rates of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were -0.15%, -0.50%, -0.52%, and -1.35% respectively [5] III. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [9] IV. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Treasury Bond CTD Bond Arbitrage Situation**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12] V. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis also narrowed [13] VI. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure flattened compared to May 13th, and short- and medium-term yields increased [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank net withdrew 78.17 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly rose last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, and the yield is still in a low range. In the medium - and long - term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: Domestically, the joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US canceled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly canceled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. Abroad, interest rate swap contracts tracking Fed meeting expectations show that the Fed may only cut interest rates by about 55 basis points this year, a significant drop from the 75 - basis - point bet last Friday. Traders expect the first rate cut to start in September [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank net withdrew 78.17 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly rose last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, and the yield is still in a low range. In the medium - and long - term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly changes of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were - 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.06%, and - 0.33% respectively [5] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates rose slightly, and the yield spread widened [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [11] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis also narrowed [12] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 6th, and the yield has risen [17]

Report Title - "Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report" [1] Report Information - Reported by Huajin Futures Research Institute on April 29, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Mao Weiwei, with qualification number F3051431/Z0013833 [21] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The central bank net injected 86.4 billion yuan. The 10-year treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it remains at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] Section Summaries I. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: Domestically, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on policies for stable employment, economy, and high - quality development. The central bank deputy governor said that timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts would be made to maintain ample liquidity and introduce incremental policies. Internationally, the US Treasury Secretary said the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", with one likely to be with India [4] - **Market Outlook**: Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The central bank net injected 86.4 billion yuan. The 10 - year treasury bond yield slightly increased and is at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside is limited, and short - term buying on dips is recommended [3] II. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Movement**: Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 contracts had weekly declines of 0.14%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.02% respectively [5] III. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Movement**: Last week, long - term interest rates slightly increased, and the yield spread narrowed [8] IV. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting an arbitrage opportunity [11] V. Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis remained stable [12] VI. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Change**: The latest treasury bond term structure flattened compared to April 21, and the yield decreased [18]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: April 15, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports increasing by 6.9% and imports decreasing by 6%. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, said that Trump's tariff policies may trigger an economic recession in the US, which is on the verge of an economic recession [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan last week. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and is at a historical low in the long term. The T2506 contract price is above the 40 - day moving average. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is low. In the medium - to - long term, the upside is limited, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [3]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The weekly price increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.11%, 0.24%, 0.35%, and 0.66% respectively [5]. 3. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Movements**: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread widened [8]. 4. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting arbitrage opportunities [11]. 5. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis converged [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The treasury bond term structure is steeper than on April 7, and the yield has increased [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report issuer: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] - Report date: April 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly, with the central bank net withdrawing 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 4: Macro and Market Outlook Weekly Macro and News - Domestic news: Affected by overseas tariff shocks, the A - share market adjusted on Monday. Near the market close, Central Huijin announced its confidence in the Chinese capital market, its recognition of the current A - share allocation value, and its plan to continue increasing holdings of ETFs to maintain market stability. - Foreign news: The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, which China firmly opposed. If the US tariff measures were implemented, China would take counter - measures [4] Treasury Bond Market Outlook - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The central bank net withdrew 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and was at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Market Conditions - Price trend: Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The weekly increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.08%, 0.46%, 0.65%, and 2.37% respectively. The weekly trading volumes were 150,904, 199,092, 274,713, and 463,907 respectively, and the weekly open interests were 99,012, 164,270, 183,347, and 105,109 respectively [5] Group 6: Treasury Bond Yield Changes - Yield changes: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread narrowed. The interest rates of 3M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y treasury bonds showed a downward trend from March 28 to April 3 [8] Group 7: Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Treasury bond CTD bond arbitrage situation: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities. For the T2506 and TF2506 contracts, the IRR showed an upward trend from March 28 to April 3 [11] Group 8: Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - TF - T spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened. From March 28 to April 3, the TF - T spread of the T2506 - TF2506 contracts changed from - 2.225 to - 2.440 [12] Group 9: Treasury Bond Term Structure - Treasury bond term structure: The treasury bond term structure flattened compared to last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 31 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The central bank made a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is below the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is oscillating at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: In March this year, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of open - market outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan of medium - term liquidity. Trump is expected to announce trade tariff policies later this week. Panic in the first quarter led global investors to reduce portfolio risks and turn to safe - haven assets, pushing up US Treasury bond prices and gold prices to a record high [4] - **Treasury Bond Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The central bank made a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. The Treasury market price is oscillating at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short - term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The weekly closing prices of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 increased by 0.09%, 0.25%, 0.43%, and 0.79% respectively. The trading volume/holding volume ratios were 1.77, 1.73, 2.06, and 5.60 respectively [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, interest rates generally decreased slightly, and the yield spread remained stable [9] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities for Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [13] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The Treasury bond term structure was steeper than last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 24 [21]