Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: April 15, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports increasing by 6.9% and imports decreasing by 6%. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, said that Trump's tariff policies may trigger an economic recession in the US, which is on the verge of an economic recession [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan last week. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and is at a historical low in the long term. The T2506 contract price is above the 40 - day moving average. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is low. In the medium - to - long term, the upside is limited, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [3]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The weekly price increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.11%, 0.24%, 0.35%, and 0.66% respectively [5]. 3. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Movements**: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread widened [8]. 4. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting arbitrage opportunities [11]. 5. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis converged [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The treasury bond term structure is steeper than on April 7, and the yield has increased [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report issuer: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] - Report date: April 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly, with the central bank net withdrawing 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 4: Macro and Market Outlook Weekly Macro and News - Domestic news: Affected by overseas tariff shocks, the A - share market adjusted on Monday. Near the market close, Central Huijin announced its confidence in the Chinese capital market, its recognition of the current A - share allocation value, and its plan to continue increasing holdings of ETFs to maintain market stability. - Foreign news: The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, which China firmly opposed. If the US tariff measures were implemented, China would take counter - measures [4] Treasury Bond Market Outlook - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The central bank net withdrew 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and was at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Market Conditions - Price trend: Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The weekly increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.08%, 0.46%, 0.65%, and 2.37% respectively. The weekly trading volumes were 150,904, 199,092, 274,713, and 463,907 respectively, and the weekly open interests were 99,012, 164,270, 183,347, and 105,109 respectively [5] Group 6: Treasury Bond Yield Changes - Yield changes: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread narrowed. The interest rates of 3M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y treasury bonds showed a downward trend from March 28 to April 3 [8] Group 7: Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Treasury bond CTD bond arbitrage situation: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities. For the T2506 and TF2506 contracts, the IRR showed an upward trend from March 28 to April 3 [11] Group 8: Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - TF - T spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened. From March 28 to April 3, the TF - T spread of the T2506 - TF2506 contracts changed from - 2.225 to - 2.440 [12] Group 9: Treasury Bond Term Structure - Treasury bond term structure: The treasury bond term structure flattened compared to last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 31 [15]