Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose, with the T2509 contract up 0.11% and an increase in open interest. Short - term market interest rates generally declined, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China also mostly decreased. Overseas, 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan all increased. The domestic economic environment has both positive and negative factors, but the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for Treasury bond futures prices [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: Yields of Treasury bond futures generally rose, with T2512 having the highest increase of 0.16%. Open interest of most contracts changed, with T2509 and others increasing. Trading volume varied by contract, and open interest increased in some contracts and decreased in others. The cross - period spreads of some contracts changed [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally declined, with SHIBOR7 down 3.3bp, DR007 down 4.85bp, and GC007 down 6.9bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally decreased, with the 10Y yield down 1.08bp to 1.64%. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 22.82bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 4bp, 4bp, and 1.5bp respectively [2] Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 2, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 365.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan. In June, the central bank had net liquidity injections through various tools [3] - **Economic Outlook**: Many foreign institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth. Experts believe that macro - policies need to be further strengthened in the second half of the year, and there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [3] - **Regulatory Policies**: The CSRC emphasized optimizing capital market mechanisms, protecting investors, and promoting capital market reform. The central government is paying more attention to fiscal policies for stable growth, with some ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds to be issued ahead of schedule [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On July 2, money market interest rates mostly declined, and US Treasury bond yields collectively rose, driven by factors such as the Trump tax reform bill, the US - Vietnam trade agreement, and market supply - demand changes [3] - **Market Analysis**: Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, with the 10 - year active bond yield down to 1.636%. The central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal at the beginning of the month and the decline in Shibor short - term varieties kept the market funds relatively loose. The US economic data was mixed, but the US - Vietnam trade agreement led to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields. The domestic economic climate generally expanded, and the central bank's supportive monetary policy will support Treasury bond futures prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract rising 0.19% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields in China generally declined, while overseas yields had different changes. The Fed's rate - cut expectation within the year decreased due to better - than - expected US non - farm data. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the capital market will remain loose, which provides some support for futures bond prices. Attention should be paid to the market capital situation and trade negotiation progress [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: In the previous trading day, the prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with T2509 rising 0.19%. The open interest of T2509 increased by 7872, and trading volumes also showed different degrees of change. The cross - period spreads of some contracts changed slightly [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day rate decreased by 3.4bp, DR007 decreased by 1.63bp, and GC007 increased by 0.5bp [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bonds**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined. The 10Y - term treasury bond yield decreased by 1.23bp to 1.66%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 18.65bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bonds**: The 10Y US treasury bond yield increased by 11bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield increased by 5bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 0.4bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On June 6, the central bank carried out 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a single - day net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan. This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature. Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 6717 billion yuan [3]. - **Economic Data**: From January to April, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan. In May, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 36 billion US dollars to 32853 billion US dollars, and the gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces for the seventh consecutive month [3]. - **International Events**: The US non - farm employment data exceeded expectations, with an increase of 139,000 people in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, which may give the Fed room to postpone rate cuts [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: In the money market, most interest rates showed different trends. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase had changes in different terms. US treasury bond yields rose collectively [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds declined. The central bank carried out a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and the short - term market interest rate declined. The Fed's rate - cut expectation within the year decreased, and the domestic market risk preference may increase. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the capital market will remain loose [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. Overseas, yields of key - term Treasury bonds in the US, Germany, and Japan increased. The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Performance**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, TS2509 rose 0.050 to 102.396, with a 0.05% increase; TF2509 rose 0.150 to 106.020, with a 0.14% increase [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The positions of some contracts increased, such as T2509 with an increase of 2562, while TF2509 decreased by 973. Trading volumes also varied among contracts [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads changed, for example, the cross - period spread of T2509 decreased from 0.0250 to 0.005 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - **Yield Changes**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. For example, the 10Y Treasury bond yield declined 1.9bp to 1.68%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 3, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. In May, the central bank carried out SLF operations of 14.01 billion yuan, and policy banks net - repaid 2700 billion yuan of PSL [3]. - **Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The OECD lowered the growth forecasts for the US and the global economy. The US 2025 growth forecast was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 2.9% [3]. - **International Relations**: The US increased tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, starting from June 4, 2025. The US also made unfounded accusations against China, and China firmly opposed these actions [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June due to a large number of maturing certificates of deposit. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading session, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined. The domestic manufacturing PMI improved in May, but the overall economy is still in the process of adjustment and transformation. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the capital market will remain relatively loose, which still supports the prices of treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent trade negotiations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Price and Yield**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined, with the 10Y treasury bond yield dropping 1.9bp to 1.68%. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of some contracts increased, such as T2509 and TL2509. The trading volume varied among different contracts [2]. - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunity [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined, with the 10Y treasury bond yield dropping to 1.68% [2]. Overseas Market - The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds generally rose. The 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - A total of 16026 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the central bank's open market this week. In May, the central bank conducted 7000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations and did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading operations. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point. The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China, and Trump announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates rose, and the yields of US treasury bonds rose across the board [3]. Comment and Strategy - The domestic economy is in the process of adjustment and transformation. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the capital market will remain loose, which supports the prices of treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations [3].