Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week, but the forward guidance may be mixed and carry a mildly hawkish tone [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market's perception of a rate cut in December may be overly optimistic, with the probability of a cut estimated at 60%-70%, compared to the market's expectation of 96% [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation expectations remain high, posing a persistent risk, especially amid ongoing economic uncertainty [1] - In the long term, if economic growth remains resilient, the Federal Reserve may tolerate inflation rates above 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth rate cut this year [1] Economic Outlook - The Russian economy is returning to a balanced growth trajectory, although inflation expectations remain high in recent months [1] - The annual inflation rate in Russia is projected to be between 6.5% and 7.0% by the end of 2025 [1] - The Central Bank will maintain a tight monetary policy as needed to bring inflation back to target levels [1] Growth Projections - The economic growth forecast for Russia in 2025 has been revised down from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 17% to 16.5%, indicating a shift in monetary policy aimed at stimulating the economy [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The benchmark interest rate has been reduced to 16.5% from the previous 17% [1] - The Central Bank forecasts that the average key interest rate will range between 13% and 15% by 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 16.50%, which is higher than the market expectation of 16.00% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Uruguay has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 8.25%, marking the third consecutive rate cut, indicating a shift towards a more neutral monetary policy as long as inflation remains within target and business expectations continue to decline [1] Group 1 - The benchmark interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to 8.25% [1] - This decision reflects the Central Bank's ongoing strategy to adjust monetary policy in response to economic conditions [1] - The Central Bank's Governor, Torosa, stated that the trend of rate cuts will continue as long as inflation stays within the target range [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Egypt has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 21%, which aligns with market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50% due to weak domestic economic activity and moderate inflation, effective from September 26, 2025 [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - This marks the 10th consecutive rate cut by the Bank of Mexico since August of the previous year [2] - The central bank indicated that it will assess the possibility of further rate reductions in the future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%, marking the eleventh rate cut since the beginning of the easing cycle in early 2024, aimed at addressing a weak economic environment [1][8]. Economic Outlook - A survey of 24 economists indicated expectations for the Bank of Mexico to reduce the key rate to 7.50% during the September 25 meeting, with projections suggesting a further decline to 7.00% by the end of 2024 and additional cuts in 2025 [3]. - The Bank of Mexico anticipates a slowdown in global economic activity in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, influenced by ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [3][4]. Inflation Trends - The overall inflation rate in Mexico rose from 3.51% to 3.74% between July and mid-September, while core inflation slightly increased from 4.23% to 4.26% [4]. - The Bank of Mexico has adjusted its overall inflation forecast, expecting it to reach the target level of 3% by the third quarter of 2026, despite a stable long-term inflation outlook above the target [4][8]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision to lower the benchmark rate was influenced by the assessment of current inflation conditions, exchange rate trends, and the impact of global trade policy changes [8]. - The Bank of Mexico's board will continue to evaluate the possibility of further rate cuts, ensuring alignment with the goal of achieving a sustainable convergence of overall inflation to the 3% target [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1 - The decision to reduce the interest rate reflects the central bank's response to economic conditions [1] - The new rate of 7.50% is aimed at stimulating economic growth while managing inflation [1]