Economic Issues - The current economic hotspots include persistently low prices, employment and income issues, ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, and severe "involution" competition in certain industries [2][3]. Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been below 1% for consecutive years, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced 34 months of negative growth. The GDP deflator has also been negative for nine consecutive months [6]. - Factors contributing to low prices include oversupply in certain industries, low capacity utilization, and declining prices in key CPI categories such as pork, fresh vegetables, and fruits. Additionally, the drop in international oil prices has increased downward pressure on PPI [6][7]. Employment and Income - The employment situation faces significant challenges due to structural employment pains from economic transformation and frictional unemployment from emerging technologies. However, stable economic growth and the development of new industries are expected to create new job opportunities [9]. - Wage income remains the primary source of residents' income, accounting for nearly 60% of per capita disposable income in the first half of the year. The government is implementing employment-first strategies to support job creation and income growth [9]. Real Estate Market - Following the Central Political Bureau's decision to stabilize the real estate market, various policies have been implemented, leading to a generally stable market. However, the market is still undergoing adjustments due to significant changes in supply-demand relationships and previous high inventory levels [11][12]. - In the first half of the year, new residential sales decreased by 3.5% in area and 5.5% in value year-on-year, but there are signs of improvement in core cities with high-priced projects [11]. Involution Competition - Industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and petrochemicals are experiencing severe "involution" competition characterized by homogeneous capacity expansion and price wars. For instance, the number of discounted passenger car models reached 227 in 2024, and the price of polysilicon has been below the industry average cost for over a year [14]. - This low-price competition has led to declining profit margins, with the automotive industry's profit rate dropping from 8% in 2017 to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025, below the manufacturing average of 6% [14][15]. - The government is focusing on comprehensive measures to address "involution" competition, emphasizing the need for collaboration among government, enterprises, and industry associations to maintain fair competition and promote high-quality development [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the economic expectations for the second half of the year will dominate market trends, with a focus on domestic macro policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving external conditions [1]. Market Performance - The market experienced a differentiated rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing signs of acceleration after surpassing the 2021 market high, while the Shenzhen Component Index continued to rise after adjustments [1]. - Average daily trading volume reached nearly 30 billion yuan, marking three consecutive weeks of significant increase in trading activity [1]. - Key market sectors included TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), non-ferrous metals, and consumer goods, with technology stocks leading in gains while small and mid-cap stocks lagged [1]. Economic Outlook - Since July, a series of macro policies have been introduced to support growth, addressing market concerns on both supply and demand sides, leading to a relatively strong expectation for stable economic growth [1]. - The external environment has improved due to a de-escalation of trade conflicts and a shift towards looser monetary and fiscal policies among major global economies [1]. Market Dynamics - The market is expected to undergo technical consolidation due to short-term divergences between bullish and bearish sentiments, as indicated by the significant deviation of the five-day moving average [1].

Economic News - The State Council emphasizes enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations, focusing on domestic circulation and effective investment expansion [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% [2] - From January to July 2025, national public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, with tax revenue declining by 0.3% [3] - Trade with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries reached 247.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, a 0.8% increase [4] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 0.7% decline in government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 [5] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 62.5% year-on-year in July 2025 [6] - The central bank introduced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and increased loan quotas [7] Important Company Information - JD.com has over 150,000 full-time delivery riders, advocating for social security benefits for gig workers [6] - Dongfeng Group is selling a 50% stake in Dongfeng Honda Engine Company [6] - Leap Motor reported a 174% increase in revenue to 24.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 30 million yuan [6] - SoftBank announced a 2 billion USD investment in Intel, reflecting confidence in advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6] - Kandi Technologies has entered into a partnership with CATL to supply battery swap stations for commercial vehicles [6][7] Industry Analysis Coal Industry - Coking coal prices have risen significantly, with the price index reaching 1340.16 yuan/ton, a 17.44% increase [8] - Coking coal inventory at three ports decreased by 14.06% month-on-month [11] - Independent coking plants saw an increase in inventory but a decrease in average available days [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises rose to 74.03% [10] - The demand side shows a potential increase in demand driven by hydroelectric projects [11] Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In July 2025, pig prices fluctuated, with live pig prices averaging 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.72% increase [13] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [14] - Policy measures are focused on reducing production capacity and controlling weight, which may stabilize prices in the long term [15] - Major pig farming companies reported varying sales prices and volumes, with some experiencing a decline in output [16] Machinery Industry - Parker New Materials specializes in high-end metal forging products, serving various industries including aerospace and energy [18] - The company reported a revenue of 7.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 2.95% increase year-on-year [19] - The demand for high-precision forging products is expected to grow, improving the company's product structure and profitability [19] - China's energy cost advantages in electricity and natural gas may help the company capture overseas market share [20]

Economic Context - The July 2025 meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the integration of high-quality development with short-term economic growth amidst uncertainties in foreign trade and domestic demand[1] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic goals[2] Domestic Demand and Investment - The meeting highlighted the need to effectively release domestic demand potential, focusing on expanding consumption and improving living standards[3] - It was proposed to increase effective investment and promote high-quality urban renewal projects to address the "involution" phenomenon in competition[3] Supply System and Policy Adjustments - Technological innovation was identified as a key solution to escape homogeneous competition and support high-quality development[4] - The meeting called for market-oriented regulatory measures to optimize competition and manage excess capacity in key industries[4] Macroeconomic Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be adjusted to enhance flexibility and responsiveness, with a focus on implementing effective fiscal and monetary policies[6] - The government aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of bonds to improve funding efficiency and maintain liquidity[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the stable growth of credit in China, reflecting strong and precise financial support for the economy during a critical phase of transformation and high-quality development [1][2] - In the first half of the year, new RMB loans amounted to nearly 13 trillion yuan, indicating a sustained release of effective credit demand from enterprises and households [1] - The financial sector is increasingly directing funds towards key strategic areas such as technology, green initiatives, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital sectors, with respective loan growth rates of 12%, 27.4%, 11.2%, 38%, and 9.5%, all surpassing the overall loan growth rate [1] Group 2 - Operating loans increased by 923.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for nearly 80% of new household loans, showcasing strong support for individual businesses and small enterprises [2] - The macroeconomic policy has been actively promoting financial support for new developments, with measures such as interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools being implemented to boost market expectations [2] - The financial system is enhancing its service adaptability and precision, focusing on supporting technological innovation and consumption to foster steady high-quality economic development [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting a definite expectation of loose short - term liquidity. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, supported by a weak economic fundamentals and loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose funding and supply disturbances, but the market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations. Future policy stances and external disturbances will dominate the market direction [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1791, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 (-0.04%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.68%); DR007 is 1.49, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.21%); R007 is 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.60%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-0.60%) [8] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple graphs related to the treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts, the price change rates of each variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds at each term, the valuation change of treasury bonds at each term in the past day, the precipitation of funds in each variety of treasury bond futures, the proportion of open interest in each variety, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 in each variety, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 in each variety, the trading - to - open - interest ratio of each variety, the bond lending turnover and the total open interest of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][12][14][17][20][23][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The report shows graphs of the interest rate corridor, the central bank's open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [30][32][35] 4. Spread Overview - The report includes graphs of the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread for different combinations [39][41][42] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides graphs of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [44][46][52] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers graphs of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents graphs of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows graphs of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuating price of treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [3] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a weak supply - demand situation. The options market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position range trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,633 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 157,429 lots, down 9,453 lots. The LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, down 4,125 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,325 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 35 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 68,680 yuan/metal ton and 69,380 yuan/metal ton respectively, both down 70 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The prices of 1 bright copper wire and 2 copper in Shanghai are down 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The real estate development investment is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai copper are 8.61% and 9.18% respectively, up 0.08% and 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.6%, up 0.0023%, and the at - the - money option purchase - put ratio is 1.04, down 0.0538 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's macro - policies are precisely regulated, and the economy shows strong resilience. The GDP growth target of over 5% in the first half of 2025 is almost certain, and the Q2 growth rate may reach about 5.3%. The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. China's central bank keeps the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery slope has slowed, with weak internal momentum, low market confidence, and high deflation pressure. Further policy support is needed, and the role of domestic demand has become more important. The expectation of macro - policy regulation has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation and impact of policies at the end of the second quarter [2]. - Given the macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, the long - term treasury bonds have adjusted, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect. Although the economic data in April indicates that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, the index is supported. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: Last week, the Sino - US trade agreement was reached, and the overseas equity market risk appetite improved. With the support of domestic macro - policy expectations and mixed economic data, the index rose first and then fell, with most sectors rising. From May 9th to May 16th, the CSI 300 rose 1.12%, SSE 50 rose 1.22%, CSI 500 fell 0.10%, and CSI 1000 fell 0.23%. IF rose 0.98%, IH rose 1.09%, IC fell 0.05%, and IM fell 0.19%. The overnight Shibor rate increased by 16 basis points, and DR007 increased by 9.65 basis points [1][4]. - **Institutional Positions**: As of May 16th, the net short positions of the top 20 institutional members in IF and IC increased from 30,135 and 13,473 to 32,221 and 14,142 respectively, while those in IH and IM decreased from 11,943 and 35,213 to 11,025 and 34,951 respectively [4]. - **Liquidity and Capital**: As of May 16th, the net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 201.371 billion yuan, with 128.359 billion yuan from the main board and 56.138 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance increased by about 2.239 billion yuan, and the data on foreign capital was not released [5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, the economy declined seasonally. Although imports and exports exceeded expectations, the internal economic momentum was still weak, with weak financing demand in the real economy. Investment mainly relied on policies, consumption was resilient but showed a marginal decline, and market confidence was insufficient. The economic recovery slope slowed, and further policy support was needed. The role of domestic demand became more important, and the expectation of macro - policy regulation increased [2]. Viewpoints and Strategies - In China, due to the implementation of macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, long - term treasury bonds have adjusted. The economic data in April shows that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, which supports the index. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, the macro environment is changing. With the repair of overseas equity risk appetite, the boost of domestic macro - policies, and the marginal mitigation of tariff disturbances, the RMB exchange rate and the domestic equity market are likely to remain strong. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies. The CSI 300 Index has support at 3600 - 3700 and resistance at 4000 - 4100 [2][18] Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the index oscillated upward with all sectors closing higher. By May 9, the CSI 300 fell 0.36%, the SSE 50 fell 0.84%, the CSI 500 rose 0.46%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.50%. IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 1.01%, IC rose 0.35%, and IM rose 0.59%. The net short positions of IF and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [1][4] - **Liquidity and Capital**: By May 9, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 26 basis points, and DR007 dropped 25.77 basis points. The inter - bank market interest rate declined marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 115.282 billion, with the main board having a net outflow of 75.083 billion and the GEM having a net outflow of 25.099 billion. The margin trading balance increased by about 17.394 billion. Foreign capital data was suspended [4][5] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, CPI continued to be under pressure with deflationary pressure remaining. Food CPI rebounded, non - food CPI declined, and optional consumption demand was weak. PPI of production and living materials continued to decline, indicating weak manufacturing demand. The Politburo meeting emphasized more active macro - policies. After the May Day holiday, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. Although the Q1 economy recovered better than expected, the Q2 economy faces significant downward pressure [13][15] Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed resilience, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Earnings reports and trade negotiations supported the US stock market. Domestically, the index adjustment in April digested negative impacts. In May, macro - policies provided support, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies [17][18]

Report Information - Report Title: Variety Research Report - Stock Index Futures Weekly Report - Report Date: April 28, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid the backdrop of the April Politburo meeting, the strengthening of domestic macro - policy expectations may support the index, but factors such as insufficient fundamental drivers, upcoming performance reports, and tariff policy uncertainties may lead to continued index fluctuations [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance 1.1 Market Review - The implementation of the April Politburo meeting and strengthened macro - policy expectations supported the market bottom, but due to insufficient fundamental drivers, performance reports under scrutiny, and tariff policy uncertainties, the index fluctuated widely. Most sectors rose, with sectors like building decoration leading in gains, while sectors such as light manufacturing and non - bank finance declined. From April 18 - 25, the CSI 300 rose 0.38%, the SSE 50 fell 0.33%, the CSI 500 rose 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.85%. The net short positions of IF, IH, and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while that of IM increased [2][6][8]. 1.2 Liquidity and Capital - As of the week of April 25, the overnight Shibor rate dropped by 11 basis points, and DR007 remained basically flat. The inter - bank market interest rate was stable. The net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 148.547 billion yuan, with 116.354 billion yuan from the main board and 28.079 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance decreased by about 1.191 billion yuan, and foreign capital data was not released [2][7]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In Q1 2025, GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, remaining stable. Consumption's contribution to economic growth increased significantly, while investment declined and exports slowed marginally. The April Politburo meeting recognized that external uncertainties have become real factors, and the role of domestic demand has been strengthened. The meeting emphasized implementing more proactive macro - policies, increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, and promoting consumption. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm and intensity of macro - policies [2][14][16]. 3. Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US stock market rebounded in the past week, but the uncertainties brought by Trump's administration and the depreciation of the US dollar may limit the rebound height. In China, the April Politburo meeting has been implemented, and policy expectations may support the index. However, performance disclosure from late April to mid - May and tariff uncertainties still pose resistance to the rebound. It is expected that the index will likely continue to fluctuate. The investment strategy is to reduce positions and wait and see during the long holiday [19][20].