国债期货日报 | 2025-07-11 宏观宽松延续，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/6/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,290.00 | +300.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,633.00 | -0.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 170.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 157,429.00 | -9453.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -1,365.00 | +381.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 99,200.00 | -4125.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 100,814.00 | -1129.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 44,800.00 | -4300.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 25,528.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 78,32 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery slope has slowed, with weak internal momentum, low market confidence, and high deflation pressure. Further policy support is needed, and the role of domestic demand has become more important. The expectation of macro - policy regulation has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation and impact of policies at the end of the second quarter [2]. - Given the macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, the long - term treasury bonds have adjusted, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect. Although the economic data in April indicates that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, the index is supported. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: Last week, the Sino - US trade agreement was reached, and the overseas equity market risk appetite improved. With the support of domestic macro - policy expectations and mixed economic data, the index rose first and then fell, with most sectors rising. From May 9th to May 16th, the CSI 300 rose 1.12%, SSE 50 rose 1.22%, CSI 500 fell 0.10%, and CSI 1000 fell 0.23%. IF rose 0.98%, IH rose 1.09%, IC fell 0.05%, and IM fell 0.19%. The overnight Shibor rate increased by 16 basis points, and DR007 increased by 9.65 basis points [1][4]. - **Institutional Positions**: As of May 16th, the net short positions of the top 20 institutional members in IF and IC increased from 30,135 and 13,473 to 32,221 and 14,142 respectively, while those in IH and IM decreased from 11,943 and 35,213 to 11,025 and 34,951 respectively [4]. - **Liquidity and Capital**: As of May 16th, the net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 201.371 billion yuan, with 128.359 billion yuan from the main board and 56.138 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance increased by about 2.239 billion yuan, and the data on foreign capital was not released [5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, the economy declined seasonally. Although imports and exports exceeded expectations, the internal economic momentum was still weak, with weak financing demand in the real economy. Investment mainly relied on policies, consumption was resilient but showed a marginal decline, and market confidence was insufficient. The economic recovery slope slowed, and further policy support was needed. The role of domestic demand became more important, and the expectation of macro - policy regulation increased [2]. Viewpoints and Strategies - In China, due to the implementation of macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, long - term treasury bonds have adjusted. The economic data in April shows that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, which supports the index. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2].

2025 年 5 月 12 日 股指期货周报 正信期货研究院 股指期货周报 品种研究报告 风偏改善、指数上行，关注 4 月经济检验 市场回顾：海外英美达成贸易协定、权益风偏改善，国内降准降息落 地、政策预期支撑，随着利空因素逐渐落地、风险扰动边际减弱，节 后指数震荡上行，板块全线收涨。截至5月9日当周，沪深300跌0.36%、 上证 50 跌 0.84%、中证 500 涨 0.46%，中证 1000 涨 0.50%；IF 跌 0.55%、 IH 跌 1.01%、IC 涨 0.35%，IM 涨 0.59%。Shibor 隔夜利率下行 26 个 基点，DR007 下行 25.77 个基点，银行间市场利率边际下行。 宏观基本面：4 月政治局会议强调要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，外需扰动 背景下、内需引擎作用加强，宏观政策调控预期进一步加强，5 月劳 动节后降准降息落地，虽然一季度经济在逆周期调节的作用下超预期 修复，但二季度经济存在较大的回落压力，当前通缩压力仍然明显， 后续需要进一步关注宏观政策的提振作用和经济修复的内生动力。 观点策略：国内方面，4 月指数调 ...

股指期货周报 品种研究报告 2025 年 4 月 28 日 股指期货周报 正信期货研究院 政治局会议加强预期，指数节前或维持震荡 市场回顾：4 月政治局会议落地、宏观政策预期加强对市场底部形成 支撑，但基本面驱动不足、业绩报告面临检验、关税政策仍存扰动， 多空交织下指数陷入宽幅震荡，板块涨多跌少。截至 4 月 25 日当周， 沪深 300 涨 0.38%、上证 50 跌 0.33%、中证 500 涨 1.20%，中证 1000 涨 1.85%；IF 涨 0.82%、IH 跌 0.21%、IC 涨 1.83%，IM 涨 2.56%。Shibor 隔夜利率下行 11 个基点，DR007 基本持平，银行间市场利率保持平稳。 宏观基本面：4 月 25 日中央政治局会议召开，会议强调，要加紧实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松 的货币政策。会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消 费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。4 月份的中央政治局会议认识 到当前外围环境带来的不确定性已经从风险因素转化为现实因素，外 需回落背景下，内需引擎作用加强，宏观政策调控预期进一步加强， 稳定就业的同时要 ...