文/ 中国宏观经济研究院党委书记、院长 黄汉权 当前社会各方面比较关注的经济热点问题主要是物价持续低位运行、就业 和收入问题、房地产市场持续调整和部分行业"内卷式"竞争严重等。 当前社会各方面比较关注的经济热点问题主要是物价持续低位运行、就业和收入问题、房地产市场持续调整和部分行业"内卷式"竞争严重等。 针对物价持续低位运行问题， 要标本兼治、长短结合、供给需求双侧发力、政策改革协同配合，把推动物价温和回升作为宏观政策目标的重要内 容，加大逆周期调节力度，实施好更加积极有为的宏观政策，综合整治部分行业内卷式竞争和价格战，在供给侧调控重点行业产能产量，以产品质 量提升带动价格回升，在需求侧增加居民收入、完善社会保障，以释放消费潜力扩大国内需求，推动总供给和总需求关系改善。 当前就业形势面临较大挑战，其中既有经济转型带来的结构性就业阵痛，也有新兴技术发展带来的摩擦性失业。也要看到，中国经济稳定增长、新 兴行业蓬勃发展，也会带来新的就业机会。 从近期情况看，房地产市场运行总体平稳。第一，在各项稳楼市政策作用下，房地产销售基本平稳，上半年，全国新建商品房销售面积45851万平 方米，同比下降3.5%；新建商品房销售额 ...

首先，中报披露基本完毕，下半年经济预期主导行情运行。上周基本面信息相对平静，主要是财报季最后阶段的业绩兑现。展望后期，影响市场的主 要因素是国内下半年经济运行的预期。从目前情况看，7 月以来国内稳增长的宏观政策不断出台，聚焦供给和需求两端，回应了市场主要关切。因此，对 于经济稳定增长的预期是相对牢固的。从外部环境看，一季度以来的贸易冲突不断走向缓和，全球主要经济体逐步进入宽松的货币政策和财政政策的政策 组合，这有利于外部环境的改善。 上周市场分化反弹，成交再上台阶。沪指上周一反弹后，周三产生大幅调整，随后展开超跌反弹，但未能越过周初高点。深圳成指继续加速补涨，周 三调整后，周四周五再创新高。量能方面，上周两市日均量能接近 30000 亿元，连续三周大幅放量。上周市场热点主要集中在 TMT、有色金属和大消费 行业。投资风格方面，科技股涨幅领先，中小盘表现落后。 从运行节奏看，市场出现震荡分歧，或展开技术整固。沪指越过 2021 年的市场高点后，有加速上行迹象，五天均线的乖离率明显增加，周三市场出 现大幅调整，提示短期多空存在分歧，预计当前位置需要进一步技术整固。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市 ...

Economic News - The State Council emphasizes enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations, focusing on domestic circulation and effective investment expansion [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% [2] - From January to July 2025, national public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, with tax revenue declining by 0.3% [3] - Trade with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries reached 247.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, a 0.8% increase [4] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 0.7% decline in government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 [5] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 62.5% year-on-year in July 2025 [6] - The central bank introduced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and increased loan quotas [7] Important Company Information - JD.com has over 150,000 full-time delivery riders, advocating for social security benefits for gig workers [6] - Dongfeng Group is selling a 50% stake in Dongfeng Honda Engine Company [6] - Leap Motor reported a 174% increase in revenue to 24.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 30 million yuan [6] - SoftBank announced a 2 billion USD investment in Intel, reflecting confidence in advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6] - Kandi Technologies has entered into a partnership with CATL to supply battery swap stations for commercial vehicles [6][7] Industry Analysis Coal Industry - Coking coal prices have risen significantly, with the price index reaching 1340.16 yuan/ton, a 17.44% increase [8] - Coking coal inventory at three ports decreased by 14.06% month-on-month [11] - Independent coking plants saw an increase in inventory but a decrease in average available days [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises rose to 74.03% [10] - The demand side shows a potential increase in demand driven by hydroelectric projects [11] Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In July 2025, pig prices fluctuated, with live pig prices averaging 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.72% increase [13] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [14] - Policy measures are focused on reducing production capacity and controlling weight, which may stabilize prices in the long term [15] - Major pig farming companies reported varying sales prices and volumes, with some experiencing a decline in output [16] Machinery Industry - Parker New Materials specializes in high-end metal forging products, serving various industries including aerospace and energy [18] - The company reported a revenue of 7.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 2.95% increase year-on-year [19] - The demand for high-precision forging products is expected to grow, improving the company's product structure and profitability [19] - China's energy cost advantages in electricity and natural gas may help the company capture overseas market share [20]

宏观 高质量发展与短期经济增长有机融合 ——2025 年 7 月中共中央政治局会议解读 "立破并举"推动供给体系和效率明显提升。从"立"的方面看，科技 创新是摆脱同质化竞争的最优解，也是构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的 有力支撑。会议提出，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新兴支柱产业，推动科技 创新和产业创新深度融合发展。另一方面，由于当前"内卷"导致的过剩与 传统意义上的产能过剩在形成原因、表现形式上有较大区别，因此在解决举 措上不能再依赖行政手段，搞"一刀切"。从会议内容看，更侧重市场化法 制化手段进行调控。会议提出，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞 争秩序持续优化。规范地方招商引资行为。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推 进重点行业产能治理。坚持"两个毫不动摇"，激发各类经营主体活力。 宏观政策持续发力、适时加力，增强灵活性预见性。目前看，全年完成 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 2025 年 7 月 31 日 宏观研究/事件点评 相关报告： 投资要点： 2025 年 7 月中共中央政治局会议是在我国外贸环境不确定、国内有效需 求不足、"内卷式"竞争等复杂局面下召开的一次十分重要的会议。会议客 观分析 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the stable growth of credit in China, reflecting strong and precise financial support for the economy during a critical phase of transformation and high-quality development [1][2] - In the first half of the year, new RMB loans amounted to nearly 13 trillion yuan, indicating a sustained release of effective credit demand from enterprises and households [1] - The financial sector is increasingly directing funds towards key strategic areas such as technology, green initiatives, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital sectors, with respective loan growth rates of 12%, 27.4%, 11.2%, 38%, and 9.5%, all surpassing the overall loan growth rate [1] Group 2 - Operating loans increased by 923.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for nearly 80% of new household loans, showcasing strong support for individual businesses and small enterprises [2] - The macroeconomic policy has been actively promoting financial support for new developments, with measures such as interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools being implemented to boost market expectations [2] - The financial system is enhancing its service adaptability and precision, focusing on supporting technological innovation and consumption to foster steady high-quality economic development [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting a definite expectation of loose short - term liquidity. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, supported by a weak economic fundamentals and loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose funding and supply disturbances, but the market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations. Future policy stances and external disturbances will dominate the market direction [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1791, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 (-0.04%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.68%); DR007 is 1.49, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.21%); R007 is 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.60%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-0.60%) [8] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple graphs related to the treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts, the price change rates of each variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds at each term, the valuation change of treasury bonds at each term in the past day, the precipitation of funds in each variety of treasury bond futures, the proportion of open interest in each variety, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 in each variety, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 in each variety, the trading - to - open - interest ratio of each variety, the bond lending turnover and the total open interest of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][12][14][17][20][23][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The report shows graphs of the interest rate corridor, the central bank's open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [30][32][35] 4. Spread Overview - The report includes graphs of the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread for different combinations [39][41][42] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides graphs of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [44][46][52] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers graphs of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents graphs of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows graphs of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuating price of treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [3] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a weak supply - demand situation. The options market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position range trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,633 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 157,429 lots, down 9,453 lots. The LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, down 4,125 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,325 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 35 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 68,680 yuan/metal ton and 69,380 yuan/metal ton respectively, both down 70 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The prices of 1 bright copper wire and 2 copper in Shanghai are down 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The real estate development investment is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai copper are 8.61% and 9.18% respectively, up 0.08% and 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.6%, up 0.0023%, and the at - the - money option purchase - put ratio is 1.04, down 0.0538 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's macro - policies are precisely regulated, and the economy shows strong resilience. The GDP growth target of over 5% in the first half of 2025 is almost certain, and the Q2 growth rate may reach about 5.3%. The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. China's central bank keeps the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery slope has slowed, with weak internal momentum, low market confidence, and high deflation pressure. Further policy support is needed, and the role of domestic demand has become more important. The expectation of macro - policy regulation has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation and impact of policies at the end of the second quarter [2]. - Given the macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, the long - term treasury bonds have adjusted, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect. Although the economic data in April indicates that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, the index is supported. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: Last week, the Sino - US trade agreement was reached, and the overseas equity market risk appetite improved. With the support of domestic macro - policy expectations and mixed economic data, the index rose first and then fell, with most sectors rising. From May 9th to May 16th, the CSI 300 rose 1.12%, SSE 50 rose 1.22%, CSI 500 fell 0.10%, and CSI 1000 fell 0.23%. IF rose 0.98%, IH rose 1.09%, IC fell 0.05%, and IM fell 0.19%. The overnight Shibor rate increased by 16 basis points, and DR007 increased by 9.65 basis points [1][4]. - **Institutional Positions**: As of May 16th, the net short positions of the top 20 institutional members in IF and IC increased from 30,135 and 13,473 to 32,221 and 14,142 respectively, while those in IH and IM decreased from 11,943 and 35,213 to 11,025 and 34,951 respectively [4]. - **Liquidity and Capital**: As of May 16th, the net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 201.371 billion yuan, with 128.359 billion yuan from the main board and 56.138 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance increased by about 2.239 billion yuan, and the data on foreign capital was not released [5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, the economy declined seasonally. Although imports and exports exceeded expectations, the internal economic momentum was still weak, with weak financing demand in the real economy. Investment mainly relied on policies, consumption was resilient but showed a marginal decline, and market confidence was insufficient. The economic recovery slope slowed, and further policy support was needed. The role of domestic demand became more important, and the expectation of macro - policy regulation increased [2]. Viewpoints and Strategies - In China, due to the implementation of macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, long - term treasury bonds have adjusted. The economic data in April shows that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, which supports the index. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, the macro environment is changing. With the repair of overseas equity risk appetite, the boost of domestic macro - policies, and the marginal mitigation of tariff disturbances, the RMB exchange rate and the domestic equity market are likely to remain strong. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies. The CSI 300 Index has support at 3600 - 3700 and resistance at 4000 - 4100 [2][18] Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the index oscillated upward with all sectors closing higher. By May 9, the CSI 300 fell 0.36%, the SSE 50 fell 0.84%, the CSI 500 rose 0.46%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.50%. IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 1.01%, IC rose 0.35%, and IM rose 0.59%. The net short positions of IF and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [1][4] - **Liquidity and Capital**: By May 9, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 26 basis points, and DR007 dropped 25.77 basis points. The inter - bank market interest rate declined marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 115.282 billion, with the main board having a net outflow of 75.083 billion and the GEM having a net outflow of 25.099 billion. The margin trading balance increased by about 17.394 billion. Foreign capital data was suspended [4][5] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, CPI continued to be under pressure with deflationary pressure remaining. Food CPI rebounded, non - food CPI declined, and optional consumption demand was weak. PPI of production and living materials continued to decline, indicating weak manufacturing demand. The Politburo meeting emphasized more active macro - policies. After the May Day holiday, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. Although the Q1 economy recovered better than expected, the Q2 economy faces significant downward pressure [13][15] Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed resilience, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Earnings reports and trade negotiations supported the US stock market. Domestically, the index adjustment in April digested negative impacts. In May, macro - policies provided support, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies [17][18]

Report Information - Report Title: Variety Research Report - Stock Index Futures Weekly Report - Report Date: April 28, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid the backdrop of the April Politburo meeting, the strengthening of domestic macro - policy expectations may support the index, but factors such as insufficient fundamental drivers, upcoming performance reports, and tariff policy uncertainties may lead to continued index fluctuations [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance 1.1 Market Review - The implementation of the April Politburo meeting and strengthened macro - policy expectations supported the market bottom, but due to insufficient fundamental drivers, performance reports under scrutiny, and tariff policy uncertainties, the index fluctuated widely. Most sectors rose, with sectors like building decoration leading in gains, while sectors such as light manufacturing and non - bank finance declined. From April 18 - 25, the CSI 300 rose 0.38%, the SSE 50 fell 0.33%, the CSI 500 rose 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.85%. The net short positions of IF, IH, and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while that of IM increased [2][6][8]. 1.2 Liquidity and Capital - As of the week of April 25, the overnight Shibor rate dropped by 11 basis points, and DR007 remained basically flat. The inter - bank market interest rate was stable. The net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 148.547 billion yuan, with 116.354 billion yuan from the main board and 28.079 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance decreased by about 1.191 billion yuan, and foreign capital data was not released [2][7]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In Q1 2025, GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, remaining stable. Consumption's contribution to economic growth increased significantly, while investment declined and exports slowed marginally. The April Politburo meeting recognized that external uncertainties have become real factors, and the role of domestic demand has been strengthened. The meeting emphasized implementing more proactive macro - policies, increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, and promoting consumption. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm and intensity of macro - policies [2][14][16]. 3. Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US stock market rebounded in the past week, but the uncertainties brought by Trump's administration and the depreciation of the US dollar may limit the rebound height. In China, the April Politburo meeting has been implemented, and policy expectations may support the index. However, performance disclosure from late April to mid - May and tariff uncertainties still pose resistance to the rebound. It is expected that the index will likely continue to fluctuate. The investment strategy is to reduce positions and wait and see during the long holiday [19][20].