Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.89 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.99 billion RMB, up 39.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of asset impairment losses in the same period last year [1][2] - The company aims to increase its business volume and market share despite facing short-term pressure from price competition in the industry. The company is expected to leverage its position as an industry leader to capture market share by lowering per-package prices [1][4] - The company’s market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9%, while the average revenue per package fell by 7.8% to 1.25 RMB due to intense price competition [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total express package volume of 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6% [1][2] - The adjusted net profit per package for Q1 2025 was 0.26 RMB, down 14.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in per-package revenue [3] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 52.41 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.35% [10] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% decrease from previous estimates due to the competitive pricing environment [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 160.1 HKD (20.5 USD), a 19% reduction from the previous target price of 197.6 HKD (25.4 USD) [4][6] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 14.5x for 2025E, which is a discount compared to its historical average due to increased industry competition [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the express delivery sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a robust growth in March 2025, with a business volume increase of 20.3% year-on-year, and a revenue growth of 10.4% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a cumulative business volume of 451.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6%, while total revenue reached 345.64 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the resilience of demand in the express delivery sector, driven by trends such as the increasing demand for small parcels and the growth of reverse logistics [4]. - Price competition is intensifying in the industry, but the report suggests that the severity of this "price war" is manageable due to regulatory guidance aimed at promoting long-term high-quality development [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In March 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.66 billion pieces, generating revenue of 124.6 billion yuan [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw major companies like SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express report revenues of 51.809 billion, 15.441 billion, 12.016 billion, and 11.824 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 14.1%, 10.6%, and 18.7% [3]. Company Performance - In March 2025, the business volume for major companies was as follows: SF Express at 1.295 billion pieces (+25%), YTO Express at 2.665 billion pieces (+23%), Yunda Express at 2.253 billion pieces (+17%), and Shentong Express at 2.085 billion pieces (+20%) [2]. - The average revenue per piece for these companies showed a decline, with SF Express at 13.82 yuan (-11.8%) and YTO Express at 2.18 yuan (-7.4%) [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and emerging demands from lower-tier markets [4]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery space, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the comprehensive logistics leader SF Express [4].

以下文章来源于市值观察 ，作者市值观察 市值观察 . 聚焦上市公司市值与价值 作者： 云潭 来源：市值观察（ID： shizhiguancha ) 被国家邮政局立案调查，韵达瞬间冲上热搜。 这一事件凸显出韵达对其加盟商的管理缺位，以及在血腥厮杀的价格战中，对规模的追逐可能要胜过 对质量和服务的坚守。 进入2025年，行业一片欣欣向荣，但韵达处境凶险，内有老玩家申通虎视眈眈，外有新势力极兔磨刀 霍霍。 韵达行业老三的地位，在2025年恐也难保。 01 管理顽疾 根据国家邮政局的公告，韵达快递部分加盟企业的安全管理存在重大漏洞，导致涉诈骗宣传品进入快 递渠道，造成重大财产损失。 而上海韵达货运负有管理失职之责，该公司为韵达股份全资子公司。次日，韵达发布公告，称全力配 合主管部门，立刻开展整改工作，提升对伪装物的识别能力。 然而，讽刺的是，韵达在可持续发展报告中特别指出，强化培训赋能末端是公司管理的重中之重，尤 其是上海韵达货运对新加盟网点的赋能培训是关键绩效，且加盟网点培训覆盖率达到100%。 公司的信誓旦旦，很快就被监管部门啪啪打脸。韵达次日股价应声下跌，网友们纷纷吐槽收到过诈骗 宣传单。原本在复苏之路上的韵达 ...