Core Viewpoint - The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" indicates a slight decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity, with the index at 57.2% in July 2025, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.6 percentage points month-on-month [1] Market Conditions - July marks a traditional off-season for the automotive market, influenced by the phased withdrawal of subsidy policies, reduced automotive consumer finance rebates, and decreased promotional efforts from manufacturers. This has led to increased consumer hesitation, with 47.7% of dealers reporting a downward trend in the overall market, with declines exceeding 5% [2] - Despite a slight overshoot in demand due to mid-year sales, the effective digestion of previously accumulated orders and the summer tourism boom have kept market activity relatively high. However, extreme weather and manufacturers' summer breaks have contributed to a slight decrease in dealer inventory levels compared to the end of June [2] - Passenger car sales in July are expected to be around 1.9 million units, slightly above expectations [2] Dealer Challenges - Dealers are facing ongoing challenges, including a decline in customer foot traffic, extended purchase decision cycles due to market conditions and policy adjustments, and lower-than-expected transaction rates. Additionally, the slowing inventory turnover is causing financial pressure, squeezing the gross profit margins on new car sales and increasing operational stress for dealers [2] Index Breakdown - The inventory warning index for July shows a regional breakdown: the national index is 57.2%, with the Northern region at 60.5%, Eastern region at 59.8%, Western region at 52.9%, and Southern region at 53.4% [4] - By brand type, the index for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, has increased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands has decreased [7] Future Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to operate steadily in August, with short-term demand being suppressed by extreme weather conditions. However, the upcoming school season and promotional activities, such as the 818 car purchase festival and various auto shows, are anticipated to boost terminal sales [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued a third batch of 69 billion yuan in national subsidies to support local implementation of trade-in policies, with a fourth batch expected in October. This is expected to positively impact the market performance in August compared to July [9] - The China Automobile Circulation Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand based on their circumstances and to enhance the promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) for Chinese automotive dealers in July 2025 is at 57.2%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a decline in the industry's prosperity [1]. Group 2 - The inventory alert index remains above the threshold line, indicating that the automotive circulation industry is experiencing a decrease in overall market conditions [1].

Group 1: Automotive Industry Overview - In June, China's automotive dealer inventory warning index was reported at 56.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7 percentage points, but a month-on-month increase of 3.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in industry prosperity [1] - BYD reported sales of 382,585 new energy vehicles in June, with a cumulative sales figure of 2.15 million vehicles for the year [1] - Geely's June sales reached 236,036 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 42%, prompting the company to raise its annual sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million vehicles [1] - Great Wall Motors sold 110,700 vehicles in June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.86% [1] - New energy vehicle startups showed significant growth, with Xpeng delivering 34,611 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 224% [1] Group 2: Company Developments - GAC Group announced that its first model in collaboration with Huawei is expected to be launched in 2026, focusing on the high-end market [4] - Li Auto's VP clarified that a fire incident involving a Li L7 vehicle was caused by burning debris from a hotel, and no injuries were reported [4] - Aich Automotive Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has a new equity freeze of 1.5 billion RMB, with a three-year duration, as reported by the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System [5][6] Group 3: International Automotive Performance - South Korea's five major automakers reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in global sales for June, totaling 691,507 vehicles [7] - Hyundai's global sales reached 358,891 vehicles, up 1.5% year-on-year, while Kia sold 269,652 vehicles, reflecting a 0.2% increase [7] Group 4: Financial Reporting Changes - Renault announced a change in the accounting method for its stake in Nissan, which will result in a non-cash loss of 9.5 billion euros, effective from June 30, 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) from the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates a slight decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity, with the index at 56.6% in June 2025, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year but up 3.9 percentage points month-on-month [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June, automotive dealers aimed to meet half-year targets through promotions during the Dragon Boat Festival and "6.18" sales events, alongside increased family car purchases due to the end of the college entrance examination and summer travel [2]. - The total passenger car sales in June are expected to be around 2 million units, slightly exceeding expectations, despite rising dealer inventory levels due to the "price for volume" strategy [2]. - Only 27.5% of 4S stores met or exceeded their sales targets in the first half of the year, indicating significant pressure on most dealers, with a notable risk of inventory accumulation [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand Indicators - The inventory index for June has significantly increased, while market demand, average daily sales, and operational conditions indices have decreased, reflecting heightened market pressure [2]. - The national index stands at 56.6%, with regional indices showing variability: North at 60.2%, East at 54.9%, West at 62.7%, and South at 49.6% [3]. - The indices for luxury/imported, joint venture, and domestic brands have risen month-on-month, indicating varied performance across brand types [7]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The automotive market demand in July is expected to decline month-on-month due to demand exhaustion, adverse weather in some regions, and the traditional off-peak consumption season [9]. - Despite ongoing increases in manufacturer wholesale volumes, dealer inventory pressure is anticipated to worsen, although new vehicle launches and regional auto shows may help boost sales [9].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive circulation industry in China shows signs of improvement, with the inventory warning index for May 2025 at 52.7%, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 7.1 percentage points [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The automotive market in May exhibited a "high at the front and low at the back" trend, driven by various auto shows and the "May Day" holiday effect, leading to a significant increase in consumer foot traffic [3] - The overall market price fluctuated greatly, with many consumers remaining in a wait-and-see state while closely monitoring the new car market [3] - The national total index for May was 52.7%, with regional indices showing varying levels of market pressure: North at 52.6%, East at 52.4%, West at 62.1%, and South at 48.1%, indicating lower activity in the southern region [5] Group 2: Dealer Insights - A survey indicated that 51.6% of dealers believe prices will decrease, while 45.2% think prices will remain stable, and only 3.2% expect price increases [7] - The overall transaction rate among dealers in May showed a decline, with 27.4% of dealers reporting a decrease in transaction rates, 56.1% stating it remained stable, and 16.6% noting an increase [6] - Inventory levels remained stable, with 61.8% of dealers reporting inventory levels as unchanged, while 17.2% noted a decrease [8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Dealers expressed a pessimistic outlook for June, with 41.4% expecting a decrease in market demand and 68.2% rating their operational status as average [9] - The market is anticipated to improve due to promotional strategies for the upcoming 618 shopping festival, with 54.8% of 4S stores preparing for activities [10] - Despite the challenges, consumer confidence is expected to rebound, supported by policies like trade-in incentives and new car launches [10]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) for May 2025 indicates a slight improvement in the automotive circulation industry in China, with a current index of 52.7%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 7.1 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive market in May exhibited a "high at the beginning and low at the end" trend, driven by various regional auto shows and the "May Day" holiday, which boosted consumer demand for family car purchases [4]. - The "old-for-new" vehicle policy and local consumption promotion measures have further stimulated consumer enthusiasm [4]. - As of May, 54.8% of 4S dealerships are preparing for promotional activities related to the 618 shopping festival, while 19.1% have already started promotions [4]. Dealer Conditions - Despite increased customer traffic, the fluctuation in terminal prices has extended order and transaction cycles, leading to slower capital recovery and heightened operational pressure for dealers [4]. - Only 35.0% of 4S dealerships have met or exceeded their sales targets for the first half of the year, with 64.9% falling short, including 17.8% close to completion [4]. Index Breakdown - The inventory and employment sub-indices decreased month-on-month, while market demand, average daily sales, and operational status sub-indices increased [4]. - The national index for May stands at 52.7%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 52.6%, East at 52.4%, West at 62.1%, and South at 48.1% [6]. Brand Performance - The indices for luxury and imported brands, joint ventures, and domestic brands all saw month-on-month declines in May [8]. Future Market Outlook - Looking ahead to June, dealers are cautiously pessimistic, with 37.6% expecting sales to remain flat, 27.4% optimistic, and 35.0% predicting a decline of up to 5% [8]. - The China Automobile Circulation Association suggests that due to increasing market uncertainties, dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance the promotion of "old-for-new" and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence [8].

Core Insights - The latest "Vehicle Inventory Alert Index" (VIA) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that the inventory warning index for May 2025 is at 52.7%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 7.1 percentage points [1] Industry Summary - The inventory warning index is above the threshold line, suggesting an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) indicates that the Chinese automotive circulation industry is currently in a downturn, with an index of 59.8% in April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 5.2 percentage points [2]. Inventory and Market Conditions - The automotive market showed weak performance in early April due to seasonal agricultural activities in the north and delayed consumption in some southern regions. The Shanghai International Auto Show later in the month brought new vehicle releases, which temporarily boosted consumer interest but also led to a short-term wait-and-see attitude among buyers [3]. - 58.2% of dealers reported a decline in sales for April, with 38.4% indicating a drop of over 5%. Only 18.5% believed sales increased month-on-month. The overall impact of the auto show on sales will gradually be realized post-event [3][5]. Regional and Brand Performance - The national index for April stands at 59.8%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 59.5%, East at 60.8%, West at 58.8%, and South at 57.1% [7]. - The index for luxury/imported, joint venture, and independent brands increased month-on-month, indicating a mixed performance across different brand types [9]. Future Market Expectations - With the upcoming May Day holiday and various auto shows, marketing activities are expected to enhance consumer interest and purchasing enthusiasm. Dealers have a slightly more optimistic outlook for May compared to April [9]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association suggests that due to increasing market uncertainties, dealers should rationally assess actual market demand and enhance promotion of vehicle replacement policies to boost consumer confidence [9].

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 1615 字，阅读全文约需 5 分钟 2025年2月28日，中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"VIA（Vehicle Inventory Alert Index）显示，2025年2月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为56.9%，同比下降7.2个百分点，环比 下降5.4个百分点，库存预警指数位于荣枯线之上，汽车流通行业处在不景气区间。 2月车市有效销售天数较少，且春节前购车需求集中释放，透支影响较大，市场处于淡季调整阶段。今年 以旧换新政策发布和实施时间较早，对2月车市有一定推动作用。但节后多个厂家的降价和促销，以及3月多款 新车上市，导致消费者持币观望情绪较重。 经销商在春节前加大清库力度，并调整进车节奏，库存压力有所缓解；但由于2月市场需求不足，客流、 成交率下滑。部分车型依然价格倒挂严重，经销商销售收入难以弥补购车支出，现金流持续紧张，经营风险依 旧存在。 多家机构公布对2025年乘用车销量增幅预测，增幅预测集中在2%-5%。根据本次调查反馈，2025年汽车 经销商普遍面临更高的销量任务，30.5%的经销商年度任务量同比提升幅度超10%； ...