本文全文共 1875 字，阅读全文约需 6 分钟 2025年9月30日，中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"VIA（Vehicle Inventory Alert Index）显示，中国汽车流通协会发布：2025年9月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为54.5%，同比 上升0.5个百分点，环比下降2.5个百分点。库存预警指数位于荣枯线之上，汽车流通行业景气度有所下降。 战，自然进店量下滑，线上线索转化率低。价格倒挂没有明显改善，部分源于旧款车型滞销，加剧资金链紧 张。叠加刚性经营成本，经销商盈利状况依旧面临挑战。 从分指数情况看： 9月库存、市场需求、平均日销量、从业人员、经营状况分指数环比上升。 点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 9月，多地汽车以旧换新补贴政策出现暂停、申领规则调整或门槛收紧（如江苏、贵州、湖南、安徽 等），对短期需求释放有一定抑制作用。但开学季家庭购车、婚庆及自驾需求集中释放，经销商季末冲量促销 和地方车展集客，显著提升了订单转化效率。国庆长假临近，分流部分消费者购车延迟至假期，一定程度上影 响了市场表现。 总体来看，"金九"成色基本符合预期。地方秋季车展密集举办叠加各 ...

北京商报讯（记者 刘晓梦）9月30日，中国汽车流通协会发布的数据显示，今年9月中国汽车经销商库 存预警指数为54.5%，同比上升0.5个百分点，环比下降2.5个百分点。 ...

从区域指数情况看：9月全国总指数为54.5%，北区指数为55.2%，东区指数为52.7%，西区指数为49.3%，南区指数为 61.9%。 智通财经APP获悉，9月30日，中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"VIA显示，2025 年9月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为54.5%，同比上升0.5个百分点，环比下降2.5个百分点。库存预警指数位于荣枯 线之上，汽车流通行业景气度有所下降。 9月，多地汽车以旧换新补贴政策出现暂停、申领规则调整或门槛收紧（如江苏、贵州、湖南、安徽等），对短期需求 释放有一定抑制作用。但开学季家庭购车、婚庆及自驾需求集中释放，经销商季末冲量促销和地方车展集客，显著提 升了订单转化效率。国庆长假临近，分流部分消费者购车延迟至假期，一定程度上影响了市场表现。 总体来看，"金九"成色基本符合预期。地方秋季车展密集举办叠加各地促消费政策持续发力，有效带动9月下半月订单 及销量显著提升。本次调查显示，54.8%的经销商反馈新车销量未达预期目标，符合或超过预期的经销商占比为 45.2%。综合预测，9月乘用车终端销量预计约为220万辆。 目前，经销商面临客流增长乏力、价格倒挂持 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"显示，2025年9月中国汽车经销 商库存预警指数为54.5%，同比上升0.5个百分点，环比下降2.5个百分点。库存预警指数位于荣枯线之 上，汽车流通行业景气度有所下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) indicates a slight increase in the inventory warning index for Chinese auto dealers, suggesting a decline in the overall market sentiment within the automotive circulation industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In August, the automotive market operated steadily despite challenges from adverse weather conditions affecting consumer demand. The second half of the month saw a recovery in demand due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [4]. - The introduction of new subsidies and the resumption of local incentives helped alleviate consumer hesitation, leading to a rebound in market demand [4]. Dealer Challenges - Dealers continue to face significant pressure due to macroeconomic downturns and low consumer confidence, resulting in prolonged car purchase cycles and lower-than-expected transaction conversions [4]. - Over 75% of dealerships reported negative impacts from recent policy adjustments, with nearly 30% experiencing sales declines exceeding 15% [4]. Inventory and Regional Analysis - The national inventory warning index for August stands at 57.0%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 57.8%, East at 55.2%, West at 65.7%, and South at 53.7% [6]. - The index for luxury and joint venture brands decreased, while the index for domestic brands increased [9]. Future Market Outlook - September is anticipated to benefit from the traditional peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") and the full rollout of national subsidies, which may enhance consumer confidence and market performance [11]. - The automotive circulation association advises dealers to rationally assess market demand and promote trade-in policies to boost consumer confidence [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season, with a slight increase in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of a small and stable increase in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with a positive industry outlook. Light - position range - bound trading is also advised [2]. - The cast aluminum market may see a slight reduction in supply and an increase in demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trading at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,645 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,008 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 15,429 lots, while the positions of the alumina main contract increased by 7,078 lots [2]. - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quote of LME electrolytic aluminum was 2,619 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,873 tons to 481,050 tons [2]. - **Other Aluminum Products**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the positions decreased by 127 lots [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,620 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: Alumina production was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; demand was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; supply - demand balance was 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons. The import and export volumes both increased [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton. China's import and export volumes of aluminum scrap increased [2]. Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import and export volumes of primary aluminum increased. The total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production was 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products decreased, while the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The production increased, while the built - in production capacity decreased [2]. Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The national real estate climate index decreased. The production of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days increased by 0.28%, while that for 40 days decreased by 0.40%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money decreased slightly, and the put - call ratio decreased [2]. Industry News - The US economic data shows a mixed situation, with the Fed hinting at a September interest rate cut. China's economic climate is generally expanding, but the auto circulation industry's climate has declined [2]. - The global auto market is at a peak level, and the performance of Chinese listed companies in the first half of 2025 is good in some industries [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a mixed performance, with a slight increase in the inventory warning index indicating a decline in industry prosperity, while market demand shows signs of recovery due to various promotional activities and new subsidies [1][2]. Inventory Warning Index - The inventory warning index for August 2025 stands at 57.0%, which is an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [1]. Market Performance - The overall automotive market in August remained stable, with passenger car sales expected to reach approximately 2 million units, driven by seasonal demand and promotional events [2]. - Despite the positive sales outlook, dealers are under pressure due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges, low consumer confidence, and extended car purchase cycles [2]. Dealer Challenges - Over 75% of dealerships reported significant negative impacts from recent policy adjustments, with nearly 30% experiencing sales declines exceeding 15% [2]. - The tightening of national subsidy policies in 20% of regions has adversely affected customer conversion rates for some dealerships [2]. Sub-Index Analysis - In August, the sub-indices for inventory, market demand, and average daily sales increased, while indices for workforce and operational conditions decreased [3]. Regional Index Breakdown - The national index is 57.0%, with regional indices showing variation: North at 57.8%, East at 55.2%, West at 65.7%, and South at 53.7% [5]. Brand Type Index - The indices for luxury/imported and joint venture brands decreased, while the index for domestic brands increased [8]. Future Market Outlook - September is anticipated to enter the traditional peak season, with the full rollout of national subsidies and local purchase incentives expected to alleviate consumer hesitation [10]. - The automotive circulation association recommends that dealers rationally assess market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrappage policies to boost consumer confidence [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers in August 2023 is reported at 57%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points, while showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) for July 2025 indicates a slight decline in the automotive market's overall health, with a warning index of 57.2%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.6 percentage points month-on-month [2][3]. Inventory and Market Conditions - July marks a traditional off-season for the automotive market, influenced by the phased withdrawal of subsidy policies, reduced consumer financing rebates, and decreased promotional efforts from manufacturers. This has led to increased consumer hesitation, with 47.7% of dealers reporting a downward trend in the market, with declines exceeding 5% [3]. - Despite a demand pullback due to earlier sales surges, the market remains relatively active due to effective order digestion and summer tourism. However, extreme weather and manufacturers' summer breaks have contributed to a slight decrease in dealer inventory levels compared to the end of June [3]. - Dealers are facing challenges such as declining foot traffic, extended purchase decision cycles, and lower transaction rates, which are exacerbating inventory turnover and financial pressure [3]. Index Breakdown - In July, sub-indices for inventory, market demand, average daily sales, and employment all showed a month-on-month decline, while the operational status index increased [5]. - The national index stands at 57.2%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 60.5%, East at 59.8%, West at 52.9%, and South at 53.4% [6]. Brand Performance - The index for luxury and imported brands increased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands saw a decline [9]. Future Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to stabilize in August, with potential boosts from back-to-school purchasing and promotional events like the 818 shopping festival. Additionally, the government has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of subsidies to support trade-in policies, with a fourth batch expected in October [11]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to realistically assess market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence while focusing on cost reduction and efficiency [11].

Core Viewpoint - The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that in July 2023, the inventory warning index for automobile dealers in China was 57.2%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [1] Group 1 - The inventory warning index for July 2023 is 57.2% [1] - Year-on-year, the index decreased by 2.2 percentage points [1] - Month-on-month, the index increased by 0.6 percentage points [1]