Core Viewpoint - A policy-driven global stock market melt-up is underway, and investors should adopt an "All In" strategy until long-term bond yields breach critical levels, triggering a market collapse [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment reflects a shift from fiscal detox to unrestrained spending, creating a "beautiful bubble" to cover massive bills, with risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies responding positively [2][9]. - The extreme indifference to policy risks is a key catalyst for the current rally, as evidenced by the low levels of volatility in both bond and stock markets [2][12]. - Hartnett suggests maintaining full exposure to risk assets until long-term Treasury yields reach "jailbreak" levels: 5.1% for the US 30-year Treasury, 5.6% for the UK, and 3.2% for Japan [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Hartnett emphasizes that bonds are the least favored asset class, with the trading logic of "Anything but Bonds" gaining traction globally [4]. - Over the past decade, gold has risen by 114%, outperforming other asset classes, while US Treasuries have declined by 1% [5]. - The ratio of European stocks to bonds has surpassed 2000 highs, indicating the end of a long-term deflationary era in Europe and Japan [5]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Outlook - The surge in US debt issuance is projected to push total debt beyond $50 trillion by 2032, with demand declining until interest rates rise sufficiently to attract investors [8]. - Hartnett warns that the inability to cut spending or significantly raise tariffs will lead to a "beautiful bubble" financed by massive deficits [9][11]. - A long-term bearish trend for the US dollar is anticipated, with recommendations to increase allocations to commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets in the latter half of the 2020s [11]. Group 4: Market Signals and Investor Sentiment - Despite a bullish stance, Hartnett notes increasing signs of bubbles, with a general optimism among investors leading to a lack of concern about economic conditions or valuations [12][13]. - The upcoming Fund Manager Survey (FMS) could signal a typical profit-taking or summer pullback if it shows extreme optimism [12]. - Hartnett highlights a divergence in market sentiment, with macro strategists fearing a bond market sell-off while equity and credit market participants remain optimistic due to anticipated economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [13][14]. Group 5: Policy Environment - The global policy environment remains accommodative, with central banks continuing to lower interest rates, supporting risk appetite [14]. - Despite a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the US compared to 2024, upcoming tax cuts in 2026 and increasing fiscal stimulus from Europe and NATO are expected to provide effective counterbalances [14]. - The consensus is that any negative macro impacts from US tariff increases will be quickly mitigated, reinforcing investor risk appetite and driving the ongoing global stock market rally [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces "Tokyo Stock God STONKS-9800," a retro-style business simulation game set in Japan's economic boom of the 1980s, emphasizing the excitement of stock trading and wealth accumulation in a nostalgic environment [1]. Game Overview - "Tokyo Stock God STONKS-9800" features a classic PC-9800 style UI, recreating the atmosphere of the late Showa era with stock market boards and popular music from the bubble economy period [1]. - Players assume the role of an ambitious newcomer in the capital market, starting from scratch to build their business empire through strategic investments in securities, real estate, and industry [1]. Market Context - The game encourages players to seize investment opportunities during Japan's economic golden age, highlighting the potential for rapid wealth growth and the risks of sudden losses [1]. - Players are prompted to identify trends and make timely trades, with the game suggesting that even inexperienced investors can succeed in this favorable market environment [1]. Additional Features - The game offers various entertainment options during market downtime, such as gacha games, visiting temples, golfing, and horse racing, providing players with alternative ways to engage with the game's economy [2]. - It also introduces concepts like leveraged investments and short selling, allowing players to explore high-risk, high-reward strategies [4]. Lifestyle and Wealth Management - The narrative emphasizes the importance of balancing work and leisure, suggesting that socializing and maintaining health are crucial for sustained success in the investment world [5]. - Players are encouraged to use their accumulated wealth to enhance their quality of life, from upgrading living conditions to investing in luxury items [7]. Future Developments - The game promises future updates with more characters, stock market events, and engaging systems, indicating ongoing development and expansion of the gameplay experience [9].

Core Viewpoint - The collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, marked a significant turning point in global finance, revealing the fragility of the financial system and the consequences of unchecked greed and speculation in the housing market [1][16]. Group 1: Background and Causes - The financial crisis had roots in decades of economic policies that favored deregulation and speculative practices, particularly during the early 21st century when American households became heavily involved in real estate speculation [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cuts led to a surge in subprime lending, with banks offering loans to individuals with poor credit histories, creating a bubble in the housing market [5][12]. - Financial instruments like mortgage-backed securities were misrated as AAA, allowing banks to offload risky loans onto global investors, exacerbating the financial instability [5][12]. Group 2: The Collapse of Lehman Brothers - Lehman Brothers attempted to mitigate its exposure by seeking external capital but was ultimately denied assistance by the U.S. government, leading to its bankruptcy [14][16]. - The bankruptcy triggered a chain reaction across financial markets, resulting in a loss of approximately $30 trillion in global stock market value within a year [18]. Group 3: Aftermath and Impact - In response to the crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented aggressive monetary policies, including printing $4.5 trillion, which flooded emerging markets with capital but also led to significant currency devaluations in various countries [18][20]. - The selective rescue of financial institutions, particularly Goldman Sachs, highlighted the disparity in how financial aid was distributed, benefiting a few while leaving many ordinary citizens in distress [22][24]. - The long-term consequences of the crisis continue to affect millions, with many still suffering from the fallout of the housing market collapse, while financial institutions have returned to profitability and high executive bonuses [24][26].

Group 1 - The average national land price in Japan increased by 2.7% year-on-year, surpassing last year's 2.3%, marking the highest growth since 1992 after the bubble economy collapse [1] - The commercial land price in Tokyo's 23 wards rose by 11.8%, with the highest price location being the Ginza store of Yamano Musical Instruments at 60.5 million yen per square meter, up 8.6% year-on-year [1] - The influx of investment funds into Japan's real estate market is significant, with commercial real estate investment expected to reach 5.5 trillion yen in 2024, a 60% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2 - Approximately 1 trillion yen of the 2024 real estate investment will come from overseas investors, reflecting a 70% increase from the previous year [2] - Despite potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the relatively low interest rates make the Japanese market attractive to foreign investors [2] - The office vacancy rate in central Tokyo was 3.94% in February, below the 5% threshold considered balanced, indicating strong demand [2] Group 3 - Global economic uncertainties, such as U.S. tariff policies, may reduce investment flows into Japan, potentially impacting rising land prices [3] - Labor shortages in the construction industry, alongside rising material costs, could lead to increased labor costs and adjustments in redevelopment plans for commercial land and apartment construction [3]