Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with the resonance of fundamentals and policies, it is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels. The coal price is expected to rise in the new round, and the supply limitation and low inventory may amplify the price volatility elasticity. The coal sector investment is both offensive and defensive with high cost - effectiveness, and it is recommended to focus on the current allocation opportunities [5][13] Summary by Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Concerns - **Core View**: The current situation is at the start of a new upward cycle in the coal economy. The supply capacity utilization of sample power and coking coal mines decreased this week. The daily coal consumption in inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces declined. The coal price in Qinhuangdao Port and the main coking coal price in Jingtang Port remained flat. The coal price is expected to rise with the approaching peak season, and the coal assets are cost - effective. It is recommended to allocate at low levels [5][13] - **Key Concerns**: From January to September 2025, the national coal mining and washing industry's revenue and profit decreased year - on - year. The national power generation installed capacity increased, but the average utilization hours decreased. The international market coal price rose to the highest level in the past two months [15] II. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 0.43% this week, underperforming the market. The CSI 300 fell 0.43%. The top three sectors in terms of gain were basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and consumer services [16] - The power coal sector fell 0.27%, the coking coal sector fell 2.23%, and the coke sector rose 2.77% [18] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Huaihe Energy (7.49%), Dianchi Energy (3.23%), and Shanghai Energy (2.60%) [21] III. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of October 31, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 693 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 685 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 676 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [25] - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of November 1, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) produced in Shanxi was 768 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin thermal lump coal (Q6000) was 710 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The FOB spot price of Newcastle NEWC5500 kcal thermal coal was 75.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton week - on - week [31] - **Coking Coal Price**: As of October 31, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The FOB price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal at the Chinese port of destination was 211.7 dollars/ton, up 3.9 dollars/ton week - on - week [33] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: As of October 31, the wagon - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite was 990 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The wagon - loading price of pulverized coal in Changzhi Lucheng and Yangquan increased week - on - week [42] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of October 31, the capacity utilization of sample power coal mines was 90.5%, down 0.5 percentage points week - on - week. The capacity utilization of sample coking coal mines was 84.78%, down 0.3 percentage points week - on - week [49] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of October 31, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal thermal coal was - 59.6 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price difference for 4000 - kcal thermal coal was - 55.1 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [45] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal inventory increased by 142.60 million tons week - on - week, daily consumption decreased by 19.20 million tons/day week - on - week, and available days increased by 2 days. Coastal 8 provinces' coal inventory increased by 10.80 million tons week - on - week, daily consumption decreased by 0.20 million tons/day week - on - week, and available days increased by 0.1 days [50] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of October 31, the Myspic comprehensive steel price index was 122.4 points, up 1.32 points week - on - week. The national blast furnace operating rate was 81.8%, down 2.96 percentage points week - on - week [68][69] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of October 31, the urea prices in Hubei and Guangdong increased, while that in Northeast China decreased. The national methanol, ethylene glycol, and acetic acid price indices decreased, while the synthetic ammonia and cement price indices increased. The cement clinker capacity utilization rate was 62.5%, down 1.3 percentage points week - on - week. The chemical weekly coal consumption increased by 11.71 million tons/day week - on - week [71][73] V. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of October 31, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao Port was 575 million tons, up 25 million tons week - on - week. The thermal coal inventory in 55 ports was 6318.8 million tons, up 132 million tons week - on - week. The thermal coal inventory of 462 sample mines was 295.1 million tons, up 1.6 million tons week - on - week [89] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of October 31, the coking coal inventory in production areas was 164.5 million tons, down 25 million tons week - on - week. The coking coal inventory in six ports was 290.2 million tons, up 14.5 million tons week - on - week [90] - **Coke Inventory**: As of October 31, the total coke inventory of coking plants was 37.5 million tons, up 0.0 million tons week - on - week. The total coke inventory of four ports was 211.1 million tons, up 11.0 million tons week - on - week. The total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills was 629.05 million tons, down 4.11 million tons week - on - week [92] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of October 31, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1966 points, down 25 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway this week was 130.1 million tons, up 29.91 million tons week - on - week [106] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio in Four Bohai Rim Ports**: As of October 31, the inventory of four Bohai Rim ports was 1397.9 million tons, down 33 million tons week - on - week. The number of anchored ships was 79, down 21 week - on - week. The cargo - to - ship ratio was 17.7, up 3.39 week - on - week [104] VII. Weather Situation - As of October 31, the Three Gorges出库流量 was 15500 cubic meters per second, down 1.27% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, there will be more precipitation in many areas, and some areas will have more precipitation than usual. There will be more rainy days in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places in the next 10 days, and the long - term precipitation and temperature outlook is also provided [111] VIII. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [112] - **This Week's Key Announcements**: Gansu Energy plans to set up a new coal - washing subsidiary. Guanghui Energy's controlling shareholder pledged shares. China National Coal Group participated in a central enterprise strategic emerging fund. Suzhou Energy's project unit was put into operation. Huaihe Energy's asset acquisition transaction will be reviewed [113][114][115][116][117]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance, it's a good time to allocate coal stocks on dips. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the 15th Five - Year Plan. With the westward shift of coal layout and rising costs, coal prices are likely to remain high. The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, and the team continues to be bullish on the coal sector and suggests investors focus on the allocation opportunities at the current stage [3][11][12] Summary by Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: In the current coal economic cycle, supply is tightening due to policies like "over - production inspection", and demand is expected to pick up with the "peak winter" approaching. Coal prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner. The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortage remains unchanged, and coal stocks are of high cost - effectiveness. Suggest investors allocate on dips [3][11] - **Investment Suggestions**: Focus on stable companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry; oversold and high - elasticity companies like Yankuang Energy; and high - quality coking coal companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy. Also, pay attention to Huayang Co., Ltd., Yankuang Australia, etc. [3][12] - **Key Focus**: In the first three quarters, the national raw coal output was 3.57 billion tons, a 2.0% year - on - year increase. In September, the electricity consumption increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Australia's coal exports in the first three quarters of 2025 are expected to decline by 5.3% year - on - year [13] II. This Week's Performance of Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 1.46% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.68. The top three performing sectors were communication, electronics, and machinery [14] - The thermal coal, coking coal, and coke sectors rose 1.68%, 0.89%, and 1.08% respectively [16] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Shanghai Energy (5.65%), Xinji Energy (4.72%), and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. (3.83%) [19] III. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of October 24, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 691.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500K) was 684.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term contract price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 676.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: At Qinhuangdao Port, the market price of Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) was 768 yuan/ton on October 25, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week. In production areas, prices in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Datong also increased. Internationally, some prices rose while others fell [30] - **Coking Coal Price**: At ports like Jingtang Port and Lianyungang, and in production areas like Linfen and Yanzhou, coking coal prices increased. The CIF price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China also rose [32] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: The car - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite and the car - loading prices of pulverized coal in Changzhi and Yangquan increased [40] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 91%, down 0.7 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 85.06%, down 2.3 percentage points week - on - week [45] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of October 24, the price difference of 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal between domestic and international markets decreased [43] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces saw an increase in daily coal consumption and inventory, while coastal 8 provinces saw a decrease in daily consumption and an increase in inventory [46] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index rose, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke remained flat, the blast furnace operating rate increased, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises decreased, the profit per ton of steel for blast furnaces increased, the iron - scrap price difference increased, and the scrap consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises increased [64][65] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: The prices of urea in some regions changed, the national methanol price index fell, the national ethylene glycol price index rose, the national acetic acid price index fell, the national synthetic ammonia price index rose, the national cement price index fell, the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry decreased, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, and the float glass operating rate remained flat [68][72][74] V. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory increased, the inventory of 55 ports' thermal coal decreased, and the inventory of sample mines' thermal coal decreased [88] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The production area's coking coal inventory decreased, the port's coking coal inventory increased, the coking enterprises' coking coal inventory increased, and the steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased [89] - **Coke Inventory**: The coking enterprises' coke inventory decreased, the port's coke inventory increased, and the steel mills' coke inventory decreased [91] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of October 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1991.0 points, down 78.0 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway this week was 100.2 tons, up 0.18 tons week - on - week [104] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio of Four Major Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of October 24, the inventory of four major ports in the Bohai Rim was 1430.9 tons, down 22.10 tons week - on - week, the number of anchored ships was 100, up 8 week - on - week, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 14.3, down 1.48 week - on - week [102] VII. Weather Situation - As of October 24, the Three Gorges outflow was 11900 cubic meters per second, up 19.36% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, there will be significant precipitation in many regions, and some areas will experience more precipitation than usual. In the long - term, there will also be precipitation in some regions, and the temperature in some areas will be higher or lower than normal [109] VIII. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies - **Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and PE ratios of multiple listed coal companies from 2024 to 2027 [110] - **Key Announcements**: This week, companies such as Huaihe Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and China Shenhua made announcements regarding asset acquisitions, share pledge releases, profit distributions, and project commissioning [111][113][114]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal market is expected to maintain a slightly tight supply-demand balance, with coal prices trending upwards, potentially exceeding early-year highs [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a confirmed price bottom and an upward trend in the price center [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Trends - As of October 18, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 740 CNY/ton, up 34 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1690 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [11][32] - International thermal coal prices have also seen increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 72.8 USD/ton, up 1.8 USD/ton [11][30] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.7%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while coking coal mine utilization increased to 87.33%, up 5.4 percentage points [11][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 31.20 thousand tons/day, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 1.40 thousand tons/day [11][48] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal and Electric Power Energy [12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook [12] 4. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.27%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22% [14][17] - The thermal coal segment rose by 6.55%, indicating strong market interest [17]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is currently in the early stages of a new economic cycle, with a combination of fundamental and policy factors supporting the sector. The report suggests that it is an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets at lower prices [6]. Price Summary - As of August 23, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 702 RMB/ton, an increase of 7 RMB/ton week-on-week. The price for thermal coal from Yulin, Shaanxi remains stable at 630 RMB/ton, while the price from Dongsheng, Inner Mongolia is 535 RMB/ton, also stable. However, the price from Datong has decreased by 9 RMB/ton to 575 RMB/ton [2]. - Internationally, Newcastle NEWC5500 thermal coal FOB price is 71.0 USD/ton, up by 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week, while ARA 6000 kcal thermal coal price is 100.7 USD/ton, up by 6.2 USD/ton [2]. Production Capacity Utilization - As of August 22, the capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.9%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points week-on-week. In contrast, the utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 85.21%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [3][6]. Consumption Trends - Coastal provinces have seen an increase in daily coal consumption, with a rise of 16.30 thousand tons/day (6.86%) week-on-week. Inland provinces also experienced an increase of 31.20 thousand tons/day (8.72%) week-on-week [4][6]. - Chemical coal consumption has increased by 6.83 thousand tons/day (1.00%) week-on-week, while the steel furnace operating rate has decreased to 83.4%, down by 0.23 percentage points [5][6]. Investment Insights - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook. The report emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality coal companies that demonstrate strong profitability and cash flow [7]. - The report suggests that the coal sector is currently undervalued, with a potential for valuation improvement as coal prices stabilize and rise. The sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the next 3-5 years, reinforcing the attractiveness of coal assets [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal supply is constrained due to cautious production following the energy bureau's output verification notice, while non-electric demand remains resilient, indicating a "not-so-dull" market even in the off-season [3][11] - The coal market is expected to maintain price stability and potentially enter a new upward trend due to supply constraints and strong non-electric demand [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Prices - As of August 16, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 695 CNY/ton, up 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 69.5 USD/ton, an increase of 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1630 CNY/ton [3][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 83.89%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points [3][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 51.60 thousand tons/day (-12.61%) and in coastal provinces by 14.20 thousand tons/day (-5.64%) [3][48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others, emphasizing their high cash flow, dividends, and return on equity [12][13] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividend yields, with a recommendation to accumulate during price corrections [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a tightening supply side due to government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply-demand situation and a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 645 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1650 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 86.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [11][42] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 51,000 tons/day (-13.04%) and in coastal provinces by 19,600 tons/day (-8.1%) [11][42] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 429,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight increase of 85,000 tons [11] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with the coal mining sector rising by 8.00% this week, outperforming the broader market [15][17] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for their stable operations and solid performance [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector stocks [11][12] - The coal price has stabilized and is expected to continue its upward trend due to safety inspections in production areas, ongoing inventory depletion at ports, and the initiation of peak season demand [11][12] - The valuation of the coal sector remains low, and the continuous improvement in fundamentals and price expectations has not yet been fully reflected, highlighting the sector's investment value [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of June 28, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 614 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 65.3 USD/ton, down 1.3 USD/ton week-on-week [11][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1250 CNY/ton [11][31] Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 92.9%, down 1.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the coking coal mine utilization rate is 82.48%, down 2.0 percentage points [11][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 14.5 thousand tons/day (+4.13%), while consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 1.6 thousand tons/day (-0.84%) [11][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Power Investment [12][13] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [10][11] - The coal supply side is experiencing a contraction, with a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is expected to recover, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality coal companies that exhibit strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends, which are expected to remain attractive investments [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of June 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 610 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1250 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, while coking coal mines have a utilization rate of 83.71%, down 0.9 percentage points [10][46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 9.50 thousand tons/day (-3.03%) and in coastal provinces by 0.30 thousand tons/day (-0.17%) [10][47] 3. Coal Inventory and Transportation - As of June 12, coal inventory in inland provinces has decreased by 12.60 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 38.50 thousand tons [47] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption is in the early stages of a seasonal increase, indicating a potential recovery in demand [10] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is experiencing a contraction trend due to ongoing safety inspections and negative feedback from coal prices, which may stabilize coal prices [11][12] - The demand side shows an increase in daily coal consumption in both inland and coastal provinces, indicating potential for demand release as the peak season approaches [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of June 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 611 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1290 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] - International thermal coal prices show mixed trends, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 66.8 USD/ton, down 0.2 USD/ton week-on-week [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 95%, down 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 33,000 tons/day (+11.76%) week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7000 tons/day (+0.41%) [49] - The utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 84.65%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [48] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 640,000 tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 498,000 tons [49] - The available days of coal in inland provinces decreased by 2.90 days week-on-week, indicating tighter supply [49] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]