Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - Report Source: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows a relatively resistant decline compared to the continuous decline of foreign sugar, but the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure and falls back near 5500, with a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market, while ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, with cumulative sales of 1000 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5720, with a basis of 279 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position of the main force is still bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The short - term view is volatile and bearish, as the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is expected to end [4][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects a supply gap of about 20 million tons (nearly balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics projects a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus and Green Pool predict surpluses of 40 million tons and 115 million tons respectively [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1120 million tons, imports are estimated at 500 million tons, and consumption is projected to be 1590 million tons, with a balance change of 12 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to range from 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is forecasted to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) was about 5086 yuan per ton, with significant import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [43]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply. - In the short - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. In the long - run, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market around 5500 for the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 01 increases. - The domestic sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of US cola. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, expected oversupply in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and increased import impact [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August forecast. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 billion tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. This is a bearish signal [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis for the 01 contract is 308, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. In the long - run, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market around 5500 for the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 01 increases [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40 million tons, and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115 million tons [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar production is expected to remain stable at around 11.2 billion tons, imports are expected to be 5 billion tons, consumption is expected to be 15.9 billion tons, and the balance change is expected to be 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content is provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. Considering that the listing price of new sugar is higher than the futures price, the near - month main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the 05 contract. Whether it can further rebound remains to be observed [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the fall of foreign sugar prices below 16 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated the global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season to be 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons; the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - Positive factors: There is a gap in the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet, and the medium - and long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6,000 yuan. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the tariff on imported raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is beneficial to sugar in the long term [8]. - Negative factors: StoneX and Czarnikow predicted a global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool and USDA predicted an increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season. SCA Brasil and Conab predicted a decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The 25/26 season's supply - demand situation: Different institutions have different predictions. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 20,000 tons; StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicted a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicted a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicted a supply surplus [32]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: The sugar production in the 25/26 season is predicted to be 11.2 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is predicted to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [34]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Imported raw sugar processing cost: In September 2025, the average ICE raw sugar price was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost after 50% tariff was 5,454 yuan per ton [39]. 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of sugar is weak, and the intraday trading should follow a bearish and volatile mindset. The new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. The night session of both domestic and foreign markets hit new lows again, showing a situation of accelerating to the bottom [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1.11621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 1 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of sugar syrup and premixes was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. This situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 380 yuan, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear but leaning towards bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The night session of both domestic and foreign markets hit new lows again, showing a situation of accelerating to the bottom. With new sugar about to be listed in large quantities and the peak consumption season over, the short - term trend will continue to be weak, and intraday trading should follow a bearish and volatile mindset [5][6][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Production Forecast**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons; Green Pool expected a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 billion tons; USDA expected a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons; SCA Brasil predicted a sugar production of 39.1 million tons in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 25/26 season; Conab predicted a sugar production of 40.6 million tons in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 25/26 season, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast [4][9]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the import tariff of sugar syrup increased. From January 1, 2025, the tariff of imported sugar syrup and premixes was adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a shrinking gap in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is close to 6,000 yuan [9]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1.11621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 1 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. The industrial inventory at the end of August was 1.16 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of sugar syrup and premixes was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices showed minor fluctuations after the National Day holiday. The expected surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season has increased, with different institutions having varying forecasts. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The price is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices after the National Day holiday showed minor fluctuations. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China reached 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - Overnight, the price of foreign sugar fell below the 16 - cent per pound mark again. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The expectation of typhoon - affecting the sugar production in Guangxi has subsided, and the price has started to fluctuate weakly again. The SR2601 contract is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 400,000 tons; and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 1.15 million tons. The reasons for the surplus mainly include improved crop harvests in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand [35]. - **Domestic sugar market**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production in China is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to operate weakly. The industry is in a pattern of strong current situation but weak expectations. The global sugar supply was in a large shortage in the 24/25 sugar season, while the north and south hemispheres are expected to have a restorative increase in production and inventory in the 25/26 sugar season. The New York raw sugar is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [3][30]. - The domestic sugar market has a bearish basis. In the 24/25 sugar season, the domestic market is expected to have continuous production increase and cost decrease, with tightened import policies for syrup and premixed powder. In the 25/26 sugar season, the sugar yield in Guangxi is expected to decline and the production cost to rise. Zhengzhou sugar futures will follow the trend of raw sugar, and the trading rhythm will revolve around the import rhythm [3][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.62 (previous value: 97.74), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.37 (previous value: 5.40) [6]. - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $62.6 per barrel (+1.02%) [6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 15.81 cents per pound (+1.48%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures is at 5,540 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton from last week; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [14]. - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 11,599 lots [14]. - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of September 9, long positions of funds decreased by 13,118 lots, short positions increased by 31,561 lots, and net long positions decreased by 44,679 lots year - on - year to - 152,698 lots, a significant decrease in net long positions [14]. 2.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: ISO expects a supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and 0.23 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season [19]. - Brazil: As of August 16, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 354 million tons, a 6.6% decrease from the same period last year; sugar production was 22.89 million tons, a 4.7% decrease; alcohol production was 16.07 billion liters, a 12% decrease; the cumulative sugar - using cane ratio was 52.51%, compared with 49.14% in the same period last year [19]. - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 sugar season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 34.9 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [19]. - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [20]. - China: CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in July 2025, 0.74 million tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season were 3.25 million tons [20]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: It is expected to operate weakly. Pay attention to the production and export rhythm in Brazil and relevant industrial policies in India [3][30]. - Domestic market: The basis is bearish. The trading rhythm will revolve around the import rhythm. Pay attention to the import situation of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder [3][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply expectations, with the global supply gap in the 2025/26 season expected to be only 231,000 tons. The domestic sugar market faces import pressure as the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import volume in July reached a ten - year high for the same period. With the upcoming beet sugar harvest in September and a high expected new - season production, sugar prices are likely to be suppressed. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,562 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the main contract position was 362,219 lots, up 5,943 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,782 sheets, down 420 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,523 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The in - quota import processing estimated prices for Brazilian and Thai sugar were 4,478 yuan/ton and 4,462 yuan/ton respectively, both down 40 yuan; the out - of - quota (50% tariff) import estimated prices were 5,689 yuan/ton and 5,668 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,990 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.5937 million tons, an increase of 0.2347 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar was 8.76%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility was 6.82%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.4%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted a global supply gap of only 231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season. The ICE sugar October contract fell 1.22% on Tuesday, and the sugar 2601 contract fell 0.59% on Wednesday. The production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August, leading to a looser global supply expectation and weaker prices [2].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Group 1: Report Core View - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the international market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is under short - term pressure at the 5700 mark and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5700 intraday [5][9] - The bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and Coca - Cola in the US changing its formula to use sucrose. The bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the global supply surplus in the new year [7] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Fundamental Data - SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - The basis of Liuzhou spot is 342 (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4][6] Supply - demand Forecasts from Different Institutions | Institution | Supply - demand Balance (10,000 tons) | Global Production (10,000 tons) | Global Consumption (10,000 tons) | Inventory - consumption Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Green Pool | Surplus 270 | 20,200 (second - highest in history) | 19,830 | Not specified | | USDA | Surplus 1,139.7 | 18,931.8 | 17,792.1 | 23% | | CZarnikow | Surplus 780 | 18,720 | Not specified | Not specified | | Datagro | Surplus 258 | Not specified | Not specified | Not specified | [36] China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet | Indicator | 2024/25 (August Estimate) | 2023/24 | 2025/26 (July Forecast) | 2025/26 (August Forecast) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar - crop Sown Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Harvested Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Yield per Hectare (ton per hectares) | 60.70 | 58.65 | 59.70 | 59.70 | | Sugar Production (10,000 tons) | 996 | 1116 | 1120 | 1120 | | Import (10,000 tons) | 475 | 500 | 500 | 500 | | Consumption (10,000 tons) | 1550 | 1580 | 1590 | 1590 | | Balance Change (10,000 tons) | - 94 | 20 | 12 | 12 | | International Sugar Price (cents per pound) | 21.70 | 15.5 - 20 | 16.5 - 21.5 | 16.5 - 21.5 | | Domestic Sugar Price (yuan per ton) | 6492 | 5900 - 6200 | 5800 - 6500 | 5800 - 6500 | [38] Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost (50% Tariff) | Month | ICE Raw Sugar Average Price (cents per pound) | Refined Tax - included Cost (yuan per ton) | Key Market Events | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July 2024 | 18.5 - 20.7 | 6330 - 6520 | Weak Brazilian crushing data, but global production increase expectation suppresses prices | | September 2024 | 18.94 | 6390 | Higher - than - expected crushing volume in central - southern Brazil, cost slightly rebounds | | January 2025 | 17.70 (far - month contract) | 5990 | Raw sugar falls to a four - year low, import window opens | | June 2025 | 16.0 - 17.0 | 5650 - 5700 | High sugar - making ratio in Brazil, clear production increase in Thailand, cost further declines | | July 2025 | 16.35 | 5600 - 5650 | Concerns about decreased yield in Brazil briefly support prices, but supply - demand relaxation trend remains unchanged | [45] Group 3: Main Position Analysis - The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]

Market Review - ICE raw sugar October contract rose by 1.85% last Friday, while the overnight white sugar 2509 contract increased by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - According to UkrAgroConsult, the Indian sugar industry, which previously benefited from ethanol blending policies, is now facing new challenges due to policy adjustments [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 sugar season remains consistent with last month. The drought in Guangxi has negatively impacted sugarcane sprouting and growth, resulting in shorter and fewer sugarcane compared to the same period last year [2] - For the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi has processed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 2.5847 million tons year-on-year. The mixed sugar production reached 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons or 4.59% year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Changjiang Futures noted that Brazil's Central-South region is expected to maintain high sugar production for the 2025/26 season, alongside increased production in India and slight growth in Thailand, leading to an oversupply situation that may suppress ICE sugar prices. However, as the crushing season peaks, actual production data from Brazil's main producing areas may not meet expectations [3] - Domestic market factors are mixed, with faster production and sales this season, ongoing summer consumption, and improved purchasing willingness from downstream sectors, particularly in the food and beverage industry. This has led to a significant reduction in industrial inventory, providing some support for sugar prices. However, long-term pressures from import profits and supply remain, with short-term stability expected due to low inventory levels [3] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazil's crushing is set to accelerate, production increase expectations have been adjusted downward. With low current inventory and anticipated high imports in the next two months, supply-demand conflicts are not acute, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach [3]