Market Review - ICE raw sugar October contract rose by 1.85% last Friday, while the overnight white sugar 2509 contract increased by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - According to UkrAgroConsult, the Indian sugar industry, which previously benefited from ethanol blending policies, is now facing new challenges due to policy adjustments [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 sugar season remains consistent with last month. The drought in Guangxi has negatively impacted sugarcane sprouting and growth, resulting in shorter and fewer sugarcane compared to the same period last year [2] - For the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi has processed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 2.5847 million tons year-on-year. The mixed sugar production reached 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons or 4.59% year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Changjiang Futures noted that Brazil's Central-South region is expected to maintain high sugar production for the 2025/26 season, alongside increased production in India and slight growth in Thailand, leading to an oversupply situation that may suppress ICE sugar prices. However, as the crushing season peaks, actual production data from Brazil's main producing areas may not meet expectations [3] - Domestic market factors are mixed, with faster production and sales this season, ongoing summer consumption, and improved purchasing willingness from downstream sectors, particularly in the food and beverage industry. This has led to a significant reduction in industrial inventory, providing some support for sugar prices. However, long-term pressures from import profits and supply remain, with short-term stability expected due to low inventory levels [3] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazil's crushing is set to accelerate, production increase expectations have been adjusted downward. With low current inventory and anticipated high imports in the next two months, supply-demand conflicts are not acute, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA predicts that in the 25/26 sugar season, global sugar production will increase by 4.7% year - on - year, consumption will grow by 1.4%, and there will be a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons. Green Pool forecasts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons. Dataro expects a global supply surplus of 153,000 tons in the 25/26 season. Various institutions predict that the global sugar supply and demand may be in surplus in the next year, and the price of foreign sugar will fluctuate weakly. As the price of foreign sugar remains low, the import profit window opens, and subsequent imports will increase, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices. Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak pattern in the medium - term, and the main 09 contract should pay short - term attention to the support level around 5600. Previous short positions can be partially liquidated for profit [4][5][9]. - Factors that are bullish for the market include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased tariffs on syrup. Factors that are bearish include the increase in global sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new year, the foreign sugar price falling below 17 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import pressure [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Hints - Bullish factors: The basis of Liuzhou spot is 483 (09 contract), with a premium over futures; as of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons; the net long position of the main contract increased, showing a bullish trend [6]. - Bearish factors: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the medium - to - long - term gap is narrowing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000 yuan per ton. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, and the adjusted tariff is close to the out - of - quota import tariff for raw sugar [9]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - In 2025, as of the end of May, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 85,400 tons, a decrease of 105,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - The USDA global sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows data on beginning inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2017 to 2024 [39]. - The rural department's data shows sugar - related information such as planting area, yield, import, consumption, and price from 2023/24 to 2025/26 [42]. - The Brueck domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows data on beginning inventory, production, import, domestic total supply, domestic consumption, domestic total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2017 to 2024 [44]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple institutions predict that the global sugar supply will be in surplus in the 25/26 period, with Dataro estimating a surplus of 1.53 million tons, Green Pool forecasting a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and StoneX projecting Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 period [4]. - The domestic sugar market shows mixed signals. The sales rate is higher than the same period last year, and the inventory situation and basis are favorable, but the global production increase and expected surplus are negative factors. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 09 generally fluctuates in the range of 5,800 - 6,000, with a short - term downward trend, and attention should be paid to the support at around 5,800 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts indicate a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 period. The import tariff of syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20% since January 1, 2025. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1072 million tons, the cumulative sales were 7.2446 million tons, and the sales rate was 65.22% (57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,220, and the basis for the 09 contract is 365, showing a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is long - biased, with a net long - position increase, but the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The global sugar supply - demand forecast for the next year may show a surplus, and the price of foreign sugar has fallen below 18 cents again. The domestic and foreign futures trends have been relatively synchronized recently. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou sugar generally fluctuates in the range of 5,800 - 6,000, with a short - term downward trend, and attention should be paid to the support at around 5,800 [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: Data from 2017 - 2024 shows changes in initial inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36]. - **Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Rural Ministry)**: Data from 2022/23 - 2024/25 (April forecast) includes sugarcane and beet planting area, yield per unit area, sugar production, import, consumption, and other information [38]. - **Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Bric)**: Data from 2017 - 2024 shows initial inventory, production, import, domestic total supply, domestic consumption, domestic total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [41]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Dataro expects a global surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season; Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; StoneX anticipates Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 season, up from 40.2 million tons in the 24/25 season [4]. - Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been raised from 12% to 20%, approaching the out - of - quota tariff for raw sugar imports [4]. - As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons; the sales ratio was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 344 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price; as of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main positions are long, with an increase in net long positions, but the main trend is unclear [4]. - International sugar prices have fallen below 18 cents again. Domestic sugar sales in April were good, and spot prices were firm. The domestic and foreign futures trends have been relatively synchronized recently. The main SR2509 contract generally fluctuates between 5800 - 6000, and investors can consider buying at the lower end of this range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information is provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts show an increase in global sugar supply in the 25/26 season. China has adjusted import tariffs, and domestic production, sales, and import data in the 24/25 season show certain trends. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 6230, and the basis for the 09 contract is 344, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of April 2025, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are long, with an increase in net long positions, but the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectations**: International sugar prices have fallen, while domestic sugar sales are good and spot prices are firm. The domestic and foreign futures trends are synchronized, and the main SR2509 contract fluctuates in a certain range, suggesting buying at the lower end [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Dataro expects a global surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 25/26 season; Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; StoneX anticipates Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 season, up from 40.2 million tons in the 24/25 season [4]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand Data**: As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons; the sales ratio was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - **Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: USDA global and domestic (Brick and Rural Ministry) supply and demand balance sheets show data on sugar production, consumption, inventory, etc. over multiple years [34][36][39]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The international sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded. In April in China, the sugar sales rate was good and the spot price was firm. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is expected to rebound with support around 5,800. In the short - term, it will fluctuate upwards. A short - term long - position strategy on dips can be considered during trading [4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 4% year - on - year to 45.9 million tons, and USDA predicts a 2% increase to 44.7 million tons. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, close to the out - of - quota tariff for raw sugar imports. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons, and the sales rate was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,220 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 335 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 386,260 tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is long - biased, the net long position has increased, but the main trend is unclear [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply and Demand**: Czarnikow has raised the global sugar market surplus in the 24/25 season to 4.7 million tons. Green Pool predicts a global sugar market surplus of 2.7 million tons in the 25/26 season, compared to a shortage of 3.7 million tons in the previous season. Thailand's sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to reach a high level. India's cumulative sugar production as of April 15 was 25.425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18% [7]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's global sugar supply - demand balance sheet, in 2024, the initial inventory was 48.372 million tons, total sugar production was 186.619 million tons, total supply was 292.43 million tons, domestic consumption was 179.631 million tons, total consumption was 247.003 million tons, the ending inventory was 45.427 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 18.39%. According to the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet from Bricker, in 2024, the initial inventory was 12.2781 million tons, production was 11 million tons, imports were 4.5 million tons, total domestic supply was 27.7781 million tons, domestic consumption was 14.3 million tons, total domestic consumption was 14.42 million tons, the ending inventory was 13.3581 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 92.64% [34][39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.